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Principles of Epidemiology: Dona Schneider, PHD, MPH, Face
Principles of Epidemiology: Dona Schneider, PHD, MPH, Face
Epidemiology Defined
Epi + demos + logos = that which befalls man The study of the distribution and determinants of disease frequency in human populations (MacMahon and Pugh, 1970)
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Epidemiology Defined
The study of the distribution and determinants of health-related states or events in specified populations and the application of this study to the control of health problems (John Last, 1988)
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Uses of Epidemiology
Legionnaires disease
Tuskegee experiment
Varieties of hepatitis
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Uses of Epidemiology
DES daughters
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Graunts Observations
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Chrisomes & Infants Consumption Fever Collick, Stone, Strangury Flox & Small Pox
Bloody Flux, Scowring & Flux
Dropsie & Swelling Convulsion Childbed Liver Grown 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Number of deaths
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0
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50
100
150
200
250
300
Endemic Time
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Epidemic
Population Pyramid
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1900
1940
1960
1980
2000
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Statistics
Statistics: A branch of applied mathematics which utilizes procedures for condensing, describing, analyzing and interpreting sets of information
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Statistics (cont.)
Inferential statistics: Methods of making generalizations about a larger group based on information about a subset (sample) of that group
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Before we can determine what statistical test to use, we need to know if our information represents a population or a sample A sample is a subset which should be representative of a population
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Samples
A sample should be representative if selected randomly (i.e., each data point should have the same chance for selection as every other point) In some cases, the sample may be stratified but then randomized within the strata
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Example
We want a sample that will reflect a populations gender and age:
1. 2. 3.
Stratify the data by gender Within each strata, further stratify by age Select randomly within each gender/age strata so that the number selected will be proportional to that of the population
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Greek letters stand for population parameters (unknown but fixed) Arabic letters stand for statistics (known but random)
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Classification of Data
Qualitative or Quantitative
Quantitative: numeric
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Classification of Data
Discrete or Continuous
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Hint
discrete continuous
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Data which fall into mutually exclusive categories (discrete) for which there is no natural order Examples:
Race/ethnicity Gender Marital status ICD-10 codes Dichotomous data such as HIV+ or HIV-; yes or no
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Data which fall into mutually exclusive categories (discrete data) which have a rank or graded order Examples:
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Data which are measured by standard units The scale measures not only that one data point is different than another, but by how much Examples
Number of days since onset of illness (discrete) Temperature in Fahrenheit or Celsius (continuous)
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Data which are measured in standard units where a true zero represents total absence of that unit Examples
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Mean Median Mode and range Variance and standard deviation Frequency distributions Histograms
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Mean
Formula: x = x / n
Sensitive to outliers
Epidemiology (Schneider)
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Median
The value which divides a ranked set into two equal parts Order the data
If n is even, take the mean of the two middle observations If n is odd, the median is the middle observation
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Given an even number of observations (n=10): Example: 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 Median = (3+4) / 2 = 3.5 Given an odd number of observations (n=11): Example: 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 Median = 4 (n+1)/2 = (11+1)/2 = 6th observation
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Mode
Mode = 2
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Range
The difference between the largest and smallest values in a distribution Example: 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Range = 8-1 = 7
Epidemiology (Schneider)
If the numbers are near the mean, variance is small If numbers are far from the mean, the variance is large
Epidemiology (Schneider)
Variance
V = [(x-x)2] / (n-1) V = [(8-4) 2 +(5-4) 2 +(3-4) 2 +(2-4) 2 +(7-4) 2 +(1-4) 2 +
(2-4) 2 +(4-4) 2 +(6-4) 2 +(2-4) 2] / (10-1) =
V = 5.7777
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Standard Deviation
SD = V SD = 5.777 = 2.404
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Symmetric
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Skewed
Score
1 2 3 4 5 Total
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Frequency
1 1 2 5 3 12
Frequency
0 0 0 0
Score
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Frequency 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
Percent 10 30 10 10 10 10 10 10
Histogram
0 0
Frequency
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Frequency Polygon
0 0
Frequency
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Frequency
Descriptive Statistics
Used as a first step to look at health-related outcomes Examine numbers of cases to identify an increase (epidemic) Examine patterns of cases to see who gets sick (demographic variables) and where and when they get sick (space/time variables)
Epidemiology (Schneider)