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Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo
2008
Lumenaut Ltd.
Lumenaut Ltd.
Contents
Introduction to Modeling Monte Carlo Method An Oil and Gas Example Reserve Estimation
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Introduction to Modeling
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Numerical Models
All numerical models have input values Input values can be a discrete number such as
1, 5, 621 or continuous such as 1.234532 or 99.23421 The input value may be absolutely certain or stochastic (follows a random pattern) Stochastic input values the norm in models, absolute certainty is a luxuary
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Stochastic Models
The input values will follow any one of the
numerous statistical distributions, for example the Normal Distribution or the Uniform Distribution For example, population height follows the normal distribution Selection of distribution depends on scientific observation of historical data and professional judgment
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Recoverable Hydrocarbons
Recoverable Hydrocarbons = Hydrocarbons in Place x Percentage Recoverable Hydrocarbons
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Values 0.10 50% 15% 25% 1.3 4.327 27.22 45% 1.95 12.25
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Explanation
Cells in Green Represent Input Values Cells in Orange Represent Output Value, in this
case the Total Recoverable Oil in Million Barrels
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Inputs Settings
GRV (cubic kilometers) Cell Name: Model!$B$6 Cell: Normal Distribution: 0.1 Mean: 0.01 SD: 0.06 Min: 0.14 Max: Cell Name: Cell: Distribution: Mean: SD: Min: Max: Porosity Model!$B$8 Normal 0.15 0.01 0.11 0.19 Cell Name: Cell: Distribution: Mean: SD: Min: Max: Cell Name: Cell: Distribution: Min Point Mid Point Max Point Min: N/G Model!$B$7 Normal 0.5 0.05 0.23 0.7 Water Saturation Model!$B$9 Triangular 0.184 0.25 0.3 0.184
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Input Settings
Cell Name: Cell: Distribution: Mean: SD: Min: Max: FWF Model!$B$10 Normal 1.3 0.1 1.0 1.7 Cell Name: Cell: Distribution: Mean: Min: Max: Recoverable Hydrocarbons Model!$B$15 Uniform 0.45 0.48 Recoverable Hydrocarbons
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Simulation Results
Model Run for 10,000 iterations
400 0.04 350 0.035
300
0.03
250
Frequency
0.025
Probability
200
0.02
150
0.015
100
0.01
50
0.005
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Simulation Results
Total Recoverable Oil (Million Barrels)
Mean Median Mode Stand. Deviation Variance Mean Std. Error Range Range Min Range Max Skewness Kurtosis 12.38 12.15 N/A 2.54 6.45 0.03 20.98 5.26 26.24 0.59 0.74
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Simulation Results
Total Recoverable Oil (Million Barrels)
Percentile 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Min to Max 5.26 9.32 10.23 10.94 11.58 12.15 12.77 13.49 14.34 15.70 26.24
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Lumenaut Ltd.