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2012 2030 Energy Outlook Booklet
2012 2030 Energy Outlook Booklet
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population growth, energy consumption, policy support for renewable energies and sources of energy supply. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual results may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation.
Energy Outlook 2030 2 BP 2012
Contents
Page Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Key determinants Risks and unknowns Appendix 4 7 21 43 73 83
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Welcome to the 2012 edition of BPs Energy Outlook 2030. This is the second year in which BP has made our outlook for global energy available to the public. I am glad to see this decision was endorsed by the response we received to last years edition, which was downloaded over 36,000 times from BPs website. I was particularly pleased at this response because I strongly believe that sharing the data and analysis of the Energy Outlook and of our annual Statistical Review of World Energy is part of our responsibility to inform the discussions on energy that are occurring in companies, governments, and over dinner tables worldwide. This Energy Outlook contains our projections of future energy trends and key uncertainties, based on our views of the evolution of the world economy, of policy, and technology. This is our view of the most likely outcome for world energy supply and demand to 2030; it is not necessarily the energy world we at BP wish to see. This year we examine in more detail several important facets of the global energy story: the pathways for economic development and energy demand in China and India; the factors affecting the energy export prospects of the Middle East; and the drivers of energy consumption in road transportation. As always, the numbers that make up this outlook point to long term trends and highlight potential decision points or fault lines in the system; in short, their job is to convey the underlying challenges and opportunities we all face in producing and consuming energy.
4 BP 2012
Our job is to unlock this story from the numbers. For example, this outlook highlights the critical role that fossil fuels will continue to play in the worlds energy mix, even as renewable energy sources continue their rapid growth. While this has inescapable implications for the likely path of carbon emissions, the outlook also highlights the opportunities for improving energy efficiency and lightening the carbon load by switching to less carbon-intensive fuels such as natural gas. The outlook also challenges some long-held beliefs. Significant changes in US supply and demand prospects, for example, highlight the likelihood that import dependence (in what is todays largest energy importer) will decline substantially. Perhaps most important to me is how the outlook reminds us that we are all connected. Global energy trade continues to grow rapidly, linking the worlds economies and driving a remarkable convergence of the relationship between energy use and economic activity in countries around the world. These are changes for the better. They are market driven, and while they need the support of well-designed policies, they represent a key reason why I feel optimistic about the worlds ability to meet the challenge of providing energy that is affordable, secure, sustainable and of course safe. We hope you find the 2012 edition of the BP Energy Outlook 2030 a useful addition to the global energy discussion. Bob Dudley Group Chief Executive
Energy Outlook 2030 5 BP 2012
Contents
Page Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Key determinants Risks and unknowns Appendix 4 7 21 43 73 83
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1990-2010
2010-2030
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OECD OECD
*Includes biofuels
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as the fuel mix gradually shifts away from oil and coal
World primary energy consumption is projected to grow by 1.6% p.a. over the period 2010 to 2030, adding 39% to global consumption by 2030. The growth rate declines, from 2.5% p.a. over the past decade, to 2.0% p.a. over the next decade, and 1.3% p.a. from 2020 to 2030. Almost all (96%) of the growth is in non-OECD countries. By 2030 non-OECD energy consumption is 69% above the 2010 level, with growth averaging 2.7% p.a. (or 1.6% p.a. per capita), and it accounts for 65% of world consumption (compared to 54% in 2010). OECD energy consumption in 2030 is just 4% higher than in 2010, with growth averaging 0.2% p.a. to 2030. OECD energy consumption per capita is on a declining trend (-0.2% p.a. 2010-30). The fuel mix changes slowly, due to long gestation periods and asset lifetimes. Gas and non-fossil fuels gain share at the expense of coal and oil. The fastest growing fuels are renewables (including biofuels) which are expected to grow at 8.2% p.a. 2010-30; among fossil fuels, gas grows the fastest (2.1% p.a.), oil the slowest (0.7% p.a.).
Energy Outlook 2030 11 BP 2012
Non-OECD
12
* Includes biofuels
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Inputs to power
14
Inputs to power
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15
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0.0 19902000
16
20002010
20102020
20202030
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-0.4
17
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Oil
30% 20%
Coal
0.1
0 1970
1990
2010
2030
18
0% 1970
* Includes biofuels
Energy Outlook 2030
19
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20
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Contents
Page Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Liquid fuels Natural gas Coal Non-fossil fuels Key determinants Risks and unknowns Appendix
Energy Outlook 2030
4 7 21 22 30 36 38 43 73 83
21
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Demand
2030 level
Other S&C Am Mid East India
Supply
Other Iraq Saudi Oil Sands Biofuels Brazil US NGLs
China
2010
Non-OECD Ind. & Other Non-OECD Transport OECD Ind. & Other OECD Transport Power
45%
3
NGLs
0 OPEC -3
Americas
RoW
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27
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90
Non-refined NGLs: 3
75 Crude 60
OECD
1 includes 2 if
28
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Demand
Supply
2030 level Other Other N. America FSU Mid East
Other Africa Australia Mid East
420
India China
370
320
30
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1990
2010
2030
Non-OECD
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Europe
Bcf/d 100
80 60 40 20 0 1990 2010 2030
34
China
Bcf/d
100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 2010 2030
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Net pipeline imports Net LNG imports Syngas from coal Shale gas and CBM Conventional (inc. tight gas)
Domestic production
China
3 2 1
3 2
Industry
Power
1 0 1990
36
0 1990
Energy Outlook 2030
2010
2030
2010
2030
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Non-OECD
Renewables in power
0.5 0.5
Biofuels
0.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
38
0.0 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
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39
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2000
2010
2020
2030
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42
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Contents
Page Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Key determinants China and India Middle East Transport Risks and unknowns Appendix 43 53 63 73 83 4 7 21
43
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Energy
Billion toe
18 15 12 9
GDP
Trillion, $2010 PPP
180 150 120 90 60 30 0 1970 1990 2010 2030
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6 3 0 2030 1970
1990
44
2010
2030
Will Chinas energy demand continue to grow as rapidly as in the past decade, or will it slow? Will India replicate Chinas pattern of a rapid acceleration of energy consumption growth as GDP rises, or will it follow a different pattern of development?
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China
Billion toe 5
4 3
2000
2010
2020
2030
2000
2010
2020
2030
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*Includes biofuels
Energy Outlook 2030
Energy intensity
Toe per thousand $2010 GDP 0.4 China 0.3
0.1
India
0 1970
1990
2010
2030
48
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49
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China
*Includes biofuels
Energy Outlook 2030 50
51
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52
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Contents
Page Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Key determinants China and India Middle East Transport Risks and unknowns Appendix 43 53 63 73 83 4 7 21
53
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Energy intensity
300 240 180 120 60 0 1970
1990
2010
2030
*Non-OECD Middle East includes Arabian Peninsula, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria
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0.0 1970
1990
2010
2030
56
Inputs to power
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2011 increase
tax subsidy
0.2
0.1
Kuwait Saudi UAE Iran US India Germany China Brazil
0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Gasoline price (Nov 2010), $/litre
58
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59
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Gas Oil
10%
62
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Contents
Page Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Key determinants China and India Middle East Transport Risks and unknowns Appendix 43 53 63 73 83 4 7 21
63
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Vehicles 800
1,200
600 Japan
800
Non-OECD
400
200
0 1970
64
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65
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2010
2030
2000
2010
2020
2030
66
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16% 69%
2020
2030
68
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Non-OECD
50
Non-OECD
40
OECD
30 2010 Increased number of vehicles Reduced average usage Improved vehicle efficiency Increased use of alternatives 2030
72
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Contents
Page Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Key determinants Risks and unknowns Appendix 4 7 21 43 73 83
73
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Base case
India
Key: Billion toe
1
S. & C. America
-1
77
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China
EU27
US
Gas Oil
40%
6%
57%
79
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30
Non-OECD
30
Coal
20
20
Gas
10
OECD
10
Oil
0 1990
Energy Outlook 2030
2010
2030
80
0 2000
2010
2020
2030
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81
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Conclusion
GDP Energy and CO2 ,
Index (1970=100) 800 700 600 500 400 300
Oil 200 OECD Gas Coal
Energy CO2
100 1970
1990
2010
2030
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Contents
Page Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Key determinants Risks and unknowns Appendix 4 7 21 43 73 83
83
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Revised up
Biofuels
Oil 50 100
Gas 150
Billion toe 6 BP 5
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Data sources
BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy, London, United Kingdom, June 2011 Cedigaz, Paris, France Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, Heston, A., Summers, R., Aten, B., Penn World Table Version 7.0, May 2011. Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, Eschborn, Germany Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook , Washington, D.C., United States, September 2011 Energy Information Administration, World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United States, Washington, D.C., United States, April 2011 International Energy Agency, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion, Paris, France, 2011 International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2011 International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2011 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011, Paris, France, 2011 Mitchell, B.R., International Historical Statistics 1750-2005, Palgrave Macmillan, New York, United States, 2007 Oxford Economics Ltd, Oxford, UK United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, New York, United States, 2009 United Nations Statistics Division, National Accounts Statistics, New York, United States, 2011 Waterborne Energy, Inc., Houston, Texas, United States Plus various official sources
88
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