DEMAND FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

MANAGERIAL JUDGEMENT RATIO TREND ANALYSIS WORK STUDY TECHNIQUES DELPHI TECHNIQUE FLOW MODELS REGRESSION ANALYSIS

MANAGERIAL JUDGEMENT
Such techniques are that plans generally from the basis for future actions. for Ex. Capital Expenditure budgets from large corporations are usually planned well in Advance

RATIO TREND ANALYSIS

STUDYING PAST RATIO AND FORECASTING FUTURE RATIO WITH ALLOWANCE EXAMPLES OF RATIOS
NUMBER OF WORKERS TO SALES NUMBER OF INSPECTOR TO PRODUCTION

WORK STUDY TECHNIQUE

APPLIED WHERE WORK MEASUREMENT IS POSSIBLE EXAMPLE IN MANUFACTURING:
PLANNED OUTPUT 20K UNITS STANDARD HOURS PER UNIT 5 PLANNED HOURS 100K PRODUCTIVE HOURS PER MAN 10 NUMBER OF WORKERS REQUIRED = 100K/10 = 10,000

DELPHI TECHNIQUE
DECISION MAKING TOOL TO ARRIVE AT WORKABLE CONSENSUS WITHIN TIME LIMIT OPINION OF EXPERTS W/O GETTING THEM FACE TO FACE EXPERTS ANSWER QUESTIONNAIRES IN TWO OR MORE ROUNDS HR EXPERTS ACT AS INTERMEDIARY, ANONYMOUS SUMMARY OF THE EXPERTS FORECASTS FROM THE PREVIOUS ROUND SENT BACK TO EXPERTS. PROCESS REPEATED TILL GROUP CONVERGES TOWARDS CONSENSUS

FLOW MODELS
TIME PERIOD TO BE COVERED ESTABLISH CATEGORIES GAINS: HIRED, TRANSFERRED, MOVEMENT LOSSES: RESIGNATION, RETIREMENT COUNT FLOWS OVER DECIDED PERIOD ESTIMATE PROBABILITY OF TRANSITION ESTIMATE DEMAND

Regression Analysis
Linear regression analysis establishes a relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. In simple linear regression analysis there is only one independent variable. If the data is a time series, the independent variable is the time period. The dependent variable is whatever we wish to forecast.