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Revenue Status Report FY 2011-2012 - General Fund 20120331
Revenue Status Report FY 2011-2012 - General Fund 20120331
Revenue Status Report FY 2011-2012 - General Fund 20120331
Markus Schwab, CPA.CITP Chief Financial Officer Chuck Olmsted Accounting Manager
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Table of Contents
3 8 9 10 11 11 12, 13 14 15 16 17 18, 19
Revenues Taxes Property Taxes Licenses and Permits Intergovernmental Charges for Services Fines and Forfeitures Other Revenues
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I. Current Economics
Manufacturing and Transportation Manufacturing activity across the Sixth District improved compared with the last report. Most contacts reported an increased level of both new orders and production. Several large auto manufacturers announced plans to hire more workers to meet increased demand for their CITY OF GRIFFIN products. A major industrial equipment producer and two medium-sized manufacturers announced plans to increase their presence in Georgia. Most manufacturers also indicatedRevenue Status Report - General Fund some increase in non-labor input costs.
(Unaudited Internal Use Only) Transportation contacts continued to report volume growth across-most segments with the exception of air cargo, which is being hindered by slowing global demand and rising fuel costs. A railroad contact noted significant volume increases in automobiles, steel, and forestry products. Domestic coal shipments slowed because of the effects of warmer weather and lower natural gas prices. A port contact indicated strong container volumes and increases in steel imports. The majority of transportation contacts reported substantial investment spending in anticipation of future demand.
Banking and Finance Contacts at community banks indicated liquidity levels remained high, a result of increasing deposit balances and relatively soft loan demand. Some contacts acknowledged a slight increase in demand for C&I and commercial real estate loans in some metropolitan areas, and a general rise in demand for automobile loans. In rural areas, however, low property valuations were said to be hindering overall loan activity. The demand for mortgages varied widely by market and some community bank contacts indicated that they have exited the mortgage origination market altogether. Lending standards at these institutions have remained largely unchanged. Smaller institutions noted tough competition from larger banks for credit customers. Many of these contacts expressed concern that regulatory compliance costs were affecting profit margins. Employment and Prices Overall hiring trends were positive, but growth remained relatively modest in late February and March. While business contacts noted some increased optimism about the economic outlook, most firms continued to approach expansion plans with considerable caution. Among firms adding to payrolls, many were utilizing temporary or contract hires in order to contain costs and retain flexibility. Reports indicated that smaller businesses were looking to rebuild margins before proceeding to adjust their payrolls. Several businesses, including trucking related firms, asserted that they were faced with a lack of qualified labor. One large manufacturer addressed the issue of the lack of qualified workers by bringing back retirees on a contract basis to help train new hires. Though most contacts continued to report having little pricing power, more firms recounted successful attempts or plans to pass on price increases since the last report. Increased transportation costs, including those resulting from higher gasoline and other fuel prices, were reportedly passed on to consumers without much difficulty. According to the firms surveyed in the Atlanta Fed's March Business Inflation Expectations survey, unit costs were expected to rise two percent for the year ahead, up slightly from February. According to the businesses surveyed, profit margins, though still below normal, have begun to improve. Firms expect modest improvement in margins over the next year. Natural Resources and Agriculture Investment in transportation infrastructure for oil and natural gas continued to increase; however, contacts noted that more investment is needed to accommodate recent increases in domestic and Canadian energy production. District refining contacts noted that the capacity to process the heavier grades of crude oil that are increasingly available is limited, despite recent investment in additional refinery capacity. While conditions improved in parts of the District, much of Georgia and Florida continued to experience varying degrees of drought. Contacts also reported that Florida citrus growers continued to fight greening disease. Prices paid to farmers for poultry and soybeans were up from the previous reporting period. Contacts continued to report concerns regarding available labor supplies in Georgia and Alabama, attributing this to the tougher immigration laws.
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Panel of Economists
Banks seem to be in good shape, and the jobs picture is improving, but the Federal Reserve expects the U.S. economic recovery to remain slow. Of course, others disagree. What are your thoughts? Scott Brown, chief economist, Raymond James & Associates, said: "Banks have begun to ease credit for consumers and small businesses, which is good thing. The economy continues to recover, but the pace is still not especially strong. We continue to face a number of headwinds: continued problems in the housing sector, contractionary fiscal policy (mostly in state and local government, but barring a change in course, federal fiscal policy is set to be a significant drag in 2013), and higher gasoline prices in the near term." James Glassman, managing director and senior economist at J.P. Morgan Chase and Co., said: "I expect the economy's growth pace to gradually pick up. Nonetheless, because it will take many years of fast growth to restore the economy to a fullyemployed state, I agree with the Fed's forecast that rates are likely to remain unusually low for some time. The underemployed state of the economy implies that inflation risks remain tilted to the downside."
Lacy H. Hunt, executive vice president of Hoisington Investment Management, said: "The main problem controlling the U.S. economic conditions is extreme over-indebtedness. This problem cannot be reversed by monetary and fiscal policies that encourage and or facilitate a further increase in debt. Such policies can produce nothing more than transitory improvement in economic activity. The reason that the standard of living of has fallen back to the levels of the 1990s is the debt overhang. Moreover, in spite of increases in some measures of economic performance, real disposable personal income in per capita terms continues to stagnate. This explains why federal income tax receipts have not risen thus far in the 2012 fiscal year, in spite of reported employment gains." Christopher Mier, chief strategist and director of the Analytical Services Division of Loop Capital, said: "There are a few 'headwinds' that are of major concern to the Fed: 1. The fiscal drag that will result from the expiration of the payroll tax cut and the extension of emergency unemployment benefits. There are also about 40 tax laws that will sunset by year's end. The potential fiscal drag going into 2013 is quite large, on the order of 1 to 2% of GDP. Europe is not fully resolved, and the potential for a flare-up that raises risk assessments and paralyzes economic agents is still a major concern. Profit margins are falling and there is a risk of slowing in the improvement in the labor market.
2. 3.
Remember that it's the Fed's job to worry. I am a little more optimistic because there is an absolute boatload of cash on corporate balance sheets. The consumer, for the moment, is optimistic and spending. The housing sector is stabilizing. The chain of causality I am looking for is for continued improvement in the labor market to boost income and consumer spending, particularly in durable goods. With new home sales low, and inventories stabilizing, there is room now for a slight pick-up that would boost activity in related industries like furniture, appliances, and even autos that would create a positive, although perhaps muted, virtuous cycle.
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Jan. 1, 2011 Jan. 1, 2012 Feb. 1, 2012 Mar. 1, 2012 Apr. 1, 2012 Date 30-Mar-12
Rate Fed funds CDs: Three months CDs: Six months BAs: One month T-bills: 91-day yield T-bills: 52-week yield Commercial paper, dealerplaced, 3 months Bond Buyer 20-bond municipal index Tax-exempt notes
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Notes
Moving Averages - The four-week moving averages are calculated as a simple average of Friday closing yield quotations for the most recently offered six-month Treasury bill (discount basis), two-year Treasury note, and 10-year Treasury note. Moving averages are used by analysts to monitor trends and trend changes. Generally, interest rates are increasing (prices falling) when the moving average yield is rising and the current rate exceeds the moving average. Conversely, current yields below a declining moving average are associated with lower interest rates (high prices on fixed-income securities). Some market timers buy (or sell) longer maturities when current market yields fall below (or penetrate above) their moving averages. The money market fund index - This index is the simple average of iMoneyNet Money Fund Averages /Taxable (All) seven-day money market fund indexes, as reported for the two weeks closest to the end of each month. The annualized return is calculated using these rates for a four-week period centering on the first of each month. The results should simulate returns from passive investment in an average money market fund. S&P Rated LGIP Index - This index is comprised of local government investment pools that are rated AAAm or AAm by Standard & Poor's and represents pools that strive to maintain a stable net asset value.
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13.80
10.30
9.20
Mar-2012 # Change in Unemployment 40,263 (17,835) (37,196) # Change in Unemployment 588 (408) (305) # Change in Unemployment 358 (38) (148) % Change in Unemployment 9.12% -3.70% -8.02% % Change in Unemployment 17.31% -10.24% -8.53% % Change in Unemployment 31.32% -2.53% -10.12%
Georgia
Spalding County
Data comes from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Taxes
Taxes account for approximately 59 percent of the City's general operating revenue coming from property taxes, local option sales taxes, insurance premium taxes, alcohol taxes, business occupation taxes, and motor vehicle taxes, etc Property taxes alone represent approximately 23 percent of general fund revenue followed by local option sales tax of approximately 19 percent of general fund revenue. This category accounts for revenue sources (predominantly grants) from other governmental agencies.
Intergovernmental
Near 7 percent of total general fund revenue, traffic fines make up 66 percent of this category or $762000 with the balance (34 percent or $393000,) from traffic cameras (running red lights), parking tickets, seatbelt fines, and ordinance fines. Licenses and permit make up less than 2 percent of the general fund revenue source. Licenses make up approximately 72 percent or $194000 of this category. The balance of 28 percent or $74700 comes from permits and 0 percent or $0 from regulatory fees and interest from delinquent payments. Service fees include business occupation tax administration fees, police service charges for copies, documents, etc., plan review and zoning document fees, and pavilion rentals. This category also includes a large portion ($4.4M) in administrative cost allocations coming from enterprise and internal services funds. Cost allocations, depending on their nature, can be non-cash book entries in order to comply with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). Allocations are designed to shift and allocate costs to the business units in order to show the true operating costs.) These are revenues from leased office and parking lot spaces. This category represents interest and dividend earnings from investments. This category includes insurance settlements, claims, recoveries, and miscellaneous reimbursements.
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Budget Total Revenues By Category Operating Revenue Taxes Licenses and Permits Charges for Services Fines and Forfeitures Rents and Royalties Total Operating Revenue Non-operating Income Intergovernmental Interest/Investment Income Contributions and Donations Gain (Loss) on Sale of Capital Assets Total Non-operating Income Transfers in from Other Funds Total Revenues
Projection
Adjustments: Gain (Loss) on Sale of Capital Assets: $ 650,000 $ 59,100 $ 722,000 $ 72,000 0 722,000 0 72,000 0 413,732 2.34%
***No adjustments as of the report date.*** Gain (Loss) on Sale of Capital Assets after Adjustments: 650,000 59,100 Total Adjustments: 0 0 Total Revenues after Adjustments
ANALYSIS: Total General Fund Revenues as of the date of this report are forecast at $18.1 million after adjustments (up $414 thousand or 2.34 percent of Budget). As of March 31, 2012 the revenue forecast model projects Local Option Sales Tax (LOST) revenues at $3.4 million (up $115 thousand dollars or 3.5 percent of Budget).
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V. Revenues
Budget Total Tax Revenues By Category Property Taxes Real Property Tax Public Utility Tax Motor Vehicle Tax Intangible Tax Railroad Equipment Tax Real Estate Transfer Tax Timber Tax Real Property Tax - Prior Year Heavy Equipment Tax Property not on Tax Digest Sub-total Property Taxes Franchise Taxes Franchise Fees - Electric Franchise Fees - Natural Gas Franchise Fees - Cable Television Franchise Fees - Telephone Sub-total Franchise Fee Taxes Food and Beverage Taxes Wine Tax Beer Excise Tax Liquor Excise Tax Sub-total Beer, Wine, Liquor & Mixed Drink Tax Payment in Lieu of Taxes Local Option Sales Tax (LOST) Hotel Motel Tax Business Occupation Tax Insurance Premium Tax Financial Institution Tax Penalty and Interest on Delinquent Taxes Penalty and Interest on Delinquent Business Licenses and Permits Homeowner's Tax Relief Grant Total Tax Revenues
Projection
100.00% 8.74%
0.20% 123.03%
0 57,700 (14,700) 43,000 (5,000) 115,000 0 35,800 (190,000) (1,400) 35,200 800 0 294,230
11.54% -20.70% 7.53% -100.00% 3.48% 8.95% -14.62% -1.75% 176.00% 100.00%
19.61% 5.00% 14.61% 1.70% 39.09% 12.17% 64.58% 0.48% 11.96% 0.27%
2.82%
100.00%
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Tax Type
LOST LOST SPLOST ELOST $ $ $ $
Amount of Distribution Last For the Twelve Current Month Months Fiscal Year
293,050 $ 439,575 $ 732,133 $ 732,626 $ 3,463,291 $ 5,194,935 $ 8,650,832 $ 8,658,363 $ 2,590,020 3,885,022 6,471,387 6,475,130
We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next 10.
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Property Tax Revenue (percentage change over prior years) Penalty and Interest on Delinquent Taxes (percentage change over prior years)
2008 4,798,148 $
20,808 $
(1) Property taxes as presented in the Comprehensive Annual Financial Report Statement of Revenues, Expenditures and Changes in Fund Balances Governmental Funds. Includes Real Property Tax, Public Utility Tax, Timber Tax, Real Property Tax - Prior Year, Motor Vehicle Tax, Railroad Equipment Tax, Intangible Tax, Heavy Equipment Tax, Property-Not-on-Digest, Real estate Transfer Tax, Homeowner's Tax Relief Grant (HTRG).
629,160,544
45,219,895
50,826,550 5,606,655 12.40% 580,606,061 (3,334,588) -0.57% 8.638 $5,015,280 (6,610) -0.13%
40,876,237 (9,950,313) -19.58% 566,014,649 (14,591,412) -2.51% 8.636 $4,888,100 (127,180) -2.54%
34,913,558 (5,962,679) -14.59% 560,797,463 (5,217,186) -0.92% 8.636 $4,843,050 (45,050) -0.92%
36,982,207 2,068,649 5.93% 543,073,894 (17,723,569) -3.16% 8.636 $4,689,990 (153,060) -3.16%
583,940,649
8.600 $5,021,890
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Budget Total Licenses and Permits Revenues By Category Licenses Beer License Wine License Liquor License Sub-total Licenses Permits House Moving Permits Burn Permits Zoning & Land Use Permits Sign Permits Catering Permits Building Permits Plumbing Permits Electrical Permits Gas Permits Mechanical Permits Sub-total Licenses and Permits Insurance Regulatory Fees Interest on Business Licenses Sub-total Licenses and Permits Total Licenses and Permits Revenues $ $
Projection
268,700 $
354,000 $
40,000 40,000 114,000 194,000 0 0 7,000 15,000 400 38,000 5,000 6,000 200 3,100 74,700 0 0 0 268,700 $
43,400 42,100 115,200 200,700 0 0 4,500 17,600 800 53,700 5,400 11,000 600 5,300 98,900 39,200 2,500 41,700 341,300 $
43,700 42,400 116,800 202,900 0 100 5,300 16,500 900 59,400 7,100 12,900 1,200 6,300 109,700 38,800 2,600 41,400 354,000 $
3,700 2,400 2,800 8,900 0 100 (1,700) 1,500 500 21,400 2,100 6,900 1,000 3,200 35,000 38,800 2,600 41,400 85,300
100.00% -24.29% 10.00% 125.00% 56.32% 42.00% 115.00% 500.00% 103.23% 46.85% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 31.75%
0.12% 1.99% 1.76% 0.59% 25.09% 2.46% 8.09% 1.17% 3.75% 41.03% 45.49% 3.05% 48.53% 100.00%
176,475 $
220,053 $
$396,528 $300,540
2008 2009 $284,588 2010
Licenses and Permits Revenue
$285,302 2011
$312,600
2012 (Projected)
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Budget Total Intergovernmental Revenues By Category DNR Funding Federal DEA Overtime Reimbursement City of Atlanta HIDTA GMA Mutual Aid Reimbursements School Resource Officers Prism Training Revenue Spalding County Board of Education Reimbursement Spalding County Grants LCI Grant ARC LLEBG - Vest Grant Byrne Grant GMA Safety Grant FEMA Grants Sub-total Grants Total Intergovernmental Revenues $ $
Projection
250,418 $
233,000 $
0 12,400 0 0 0 (9,500) 0 0 0 0 0 0 (40) 5,000 (25,278) (20,318) (17,418) 62.00% 0.00% 0.00% -59.38% 71.19%
54.54%
338,271 $
59,114 $
$397,385
$400,000 $200,000 2008
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Budget Total Charges for Services Revenues By Category Indirect Cost Allocations IT Equipment Cost Allocation Returned Check Fees Election Qualifying Fees Business Occupation Tax Administration Fee Business List Reports Data Processing Fees Credit Card Fees Fire Inspections Cemetery Fees Pool Service Fees Sale of Recycled Materials Pavilion Rental Plan Review Fees Demolition Recovery Fees Customer Service Fee Zoning Application Fees Total Charges for Services Revenues $ $
Projection
4,654,420 $
4,688,100 $
4,437,870 0 0 1,600 30,000 0 36,000 0 0 130,000 4,650 0 7,000 4,000 3,000 0 300 4,654,420 $
4,478,800 17,900 100 2,800 30,700 0 18,800 3,700 300 157,000 1,600 0 12,200 14,500 3,700 0 600 4,742,700 $
4,437,900 0 400 2,800 29,800 0 17,200 3,800 300 160,400 2,100 0 13,100 15,100 3,900 0 1,300 4,688,100 $
30 0 400 1,200 (200) 0 (18,800) 3,800 300 30,400 (2,550) 0 6,100 11,100 900 0 1,000 33,680
0.00% 100.00% 75.00% -0.67% -52.22% 100.00% 100.00% 23.38% -54.84% 87.14% 277.50% 30.00% 333.33% 0.72%
0.09% 1.19% 3.56% 0.59% 55.82% 11.28% 0.89% 90.26% 7.57% 18.11% 32.96% 2.67% 2.97% 100.00%
4,916,713 $
257,767 $
$5,174,480
$5,043,464
$4,454,639
$4,913,673
$4,688,100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 (Projected)
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Budget Total Fines and Forfeitures Revenue By Category Police Revenue Traffic Fines Camera Traffic Light Fines Code Violations Seat Belt Fines Ordinance Fines Total Fines and Forfeitures Revenue* $ $
Projection
1,155,000 $
1,019,600 $
*** Seat Belt Fines --- beginning July 1, 2011 seat belt fines are combined with traffic fines.
$863,445 $758,948
$403,596 $391,308
$176,631
$327,000
$358,000
30-Jun-08
30-Jun-09
Traffic Fines
30-Jun-10
30-Jun-11
30-Jun-12
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Budget Other Revenues Investment Income Rents, Royalties and Other Rents Insurance Claims Miscellaneous Revenue Contributions and Donations Sub-total Rents, Royalties and Other Proceeds and Other Financing Sources Proceeds of GMA Leases Proceeds of Sales of Fixed Assets Sub-total Proceeds and Other Financing Sources Transfers: Transfer from Hotel Motel Tax Fund Transfer from Police Technology Fund Transfer from Court Technology Fund Transfer from Water/Wastewater Transfer from Electric Fund Transfer from Welcome Center Fund Transfer from Solid Waste Fund Transfer from Airport Fund Transfer from Storm Water Fund Transfer from Golf Course Transfer from Motor Pool Transfer from GBTA 18,000 51,000 26,000
Projection
10,500 $
15,000 $
24,000 $
13,500
128.57%
7.56%
650,000 0 650,000
0 59,100 59,100
0 72,000 72,000
40.33% 40.33%
12,600
12,600
100.00%
7.06%
379,950
(20,460)
12,600
12,600
100.00%
7.06%
95,000 945,280 $
7,652,300 7,943,400 $
162,000 1,123,820 $
67,000 178,540
70.53% 18.89%
37.53% 100.00%
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Interest Income (percentage change over prior years) Rental Income (percentage change over prior years) Donations and Contributions (percentage change over prior years) Other Revenues (percentage change over prior years)
215,418 $
12,296 $
90,462 $
$100,000 $71,454
$75,000
$50,000
$24,000
$25,000 $12,296 0 2008 $883 2009
Interest Income
$3,220
2012 (Projected)
Any idiot can face a crisis - - it's the day-to-day living that wears you out."
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City of Griffin Department of Administrative Services Finance and Accounting Division 100 South Hill Street Griffin, Georgia 30223 www.cityofgriffin.com
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