KONSEP RELIABILITY

R(t) = 1 F(t) dimana F(t) = Probalitity of Failure R(t) = Probalitity of Survive

5/24/2012

Karakteristik Relibility R(t)=e-t 1

Contoh R(t) = (1+g(t))-1

R(t)

R(t) = e-g(t)

t (hours)
Probability Density Function (PDF) dan Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)

Contoh R(t) = 1 / (1+0.001t)

F(t)=1 - (1+0.001t)-1
Berapa probalilitas kerusakan produk baru setelah dioperasikan : - 1000 Jam - 4000 Jam - antara 1000 jam hingga 4000 jam Jawab -F(1000) = 1-(1+1)-1= 1-1/2 = 0.5 -F(4000) = 1-(1+4)-1= 1-1/5 = 0.8 -F(4000)-F(1000) = 0.3

Contoh 150 armada taxi (baru) beroperasi. Berapa taxi yang gagal beroperasi setelah 1000 jam? dan 3000 jam berikutnya? Jawab F(1000) = 0.5 x 150 = 75 mobil F(4000) = 0.8 x 150 = 120 mobil

Ingat ! P(AB) = P(A).P(B|A) = P(A).P(B) (Conditional) (Independent)

Bila ada n unit harus bekerja simultant dan independent

R(t)1

R(t)2

R(t)3

R(t)n

P(R1. R2. R3. Rn) = P(R1). P(R2). P(R3) P(Rn) Reliability system R(t)s = [R(t)]n

Probabilitas Kerusakan pada sistem tersebut :

Fs(t) = 1 [R(t)]n

Laju Kegagalan (Failure Rate)

Jumlah unit Rusak

10

1 Hours

Teorema Failure Rate (Hazard Function) Event A : Survive hingga selang waktu t => P(A) Event B : Failure selang t setelah t => P(B) P(AB) = P(A).P(B|A) P(AB) P(B|A) = P(A) P(A & B keduanya terjadi) P(B|A)

=
P(survive)

F(t+ t) F(t) P(gagal selang t|survive hingga selang t) =

R(t)

Untuk t -> 0 F(t) = F(t+ t) F(t) = f(t) t f(t) h(t) = R(t) Hazard Function Atau Failure Rate

Cumulative Hazard Function Cumulative hazard dalam selang t1-t2

H( t ) h ( t ) dt
t1

t2

atau H( t ) ln R ( t )

F(t) = 1 e-H(t)

Average Failure Rate (AFR)

H( t ) AFR t 2 t1
t2

AFR

h (t ) dt
t1

t 2 t1

ln R ( t1 ) ln R ( t 2 ) atau AFR t 2 t1

Bila waktu dari 0 hinga time period ( 0 T), maka :

H(T) AFR(T) = = T

- ln R(T) T

Probabilitas failure selang time period T

F(t) = 1 e-TxAFR(T)

Satuan Failure rate = percent / 1000 hours = %/K Failure rate = parts per million / 1000 hours = ppm/K = FIT (fails in time) Konversi Failure rate in %/K = 105 x h(t) AFR in %/K = 105 x AFR(T1.T2) Failure rate in FIT = 109 x h(t) = 104 x Failure rate in %/K

AFR in FIT = 109 x AFR (T1.T2)

Bathtub Curve
Item Life

Renewal

Early Failure Period

Stable Failure Period

Wear out Failure Period

Time

Contoh
1 2 3

x
x x x

x
x x x x

Armada Taxi

4 5 6

7
8 9 10

x
x

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

time

= Pertama kali Fail

= Fail ke kali sekian

Pertanyaan
1. 2. 3. 4. Estimasi CDF dan Reliability Function pada 500 & 550 jam Estimasi f(500-550) Estimasi Failure Rate atau Hazard rate, h(500-550), Estimasi Renewal Rate, r(500-550)

1 2 3

x
x x x

x
x x x

Armada Taxi

4 5 6

x
x h(500550) =(1/(5x50) /x (5/10) = 10 / (5x5x50) = (2/5) / 50
300 400

8 F(500) = 5/10 9 R(500) = 5/10 10

F(550) = 7/10 R(550) = 3/10 f(500550) =(2/10)/50 hr = 1/(5x50)

0 100 200

time r(500550) = (4/10) / 50 hr

500

600

700