The Monty Hall Problem

30404 Na Eun 30416 Bora 30419 Arthur 30429 Jay

Outline
Member 1 reason , Why is it useful & when can you use it? Member 4 show problem & video Member 2 solve this problem with 2 ways Member 3 - Give the class a problem to try, then show the solution Member 5 The Mastery

Member 1 - reason , Why is it useful & when can you use it?
- To learn more about possibility in which we use without being aware that we are using it, and are only aware of it when solving math problems - Possibility is Always(emphasized) always used in our daily lives

Member 4 - show problem & video

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Member 2 Explain & solve the problem

Member 2 Explain & solve the problem

We can solve this problem with 2 ways

Number 1 : Graph

Number 2 - Formula

We can determine these probabilities using the rule

p( A B ) p( A | B ) = p( B )
In words: The probability of event A given event B is the probability of both A and B divided by the probability of B.

In the following argument :

Assume that:
-we originally chose door #1. -Monty opened door #2.

Notation
-Let #1 denote the event that the prize is behind door #1, and similarly for doors #2 and #3. -Let opened #2 denote the event that Monty has opened door #2.

Our aim is to compute p(#1 | opened #2) and p(#3 | opened #2).

p( #1 | opened #2) =

p (#1 opened #2) p( opened #2 )

p( #3 | opened #2 ) =

p ( #3 opened #2 ) p ( opened #2 )

p( A B ) 1. p ( A | B ) = p( B ) 2. p( A B ) = p ( B ) p ( A | B )

Rules :

p( #1 opened #2 ) = p ( opened #2 |#1) p ( #1)

1 1 1 = = 2 3 6

(By rule 2.)

(If the prize is behind door #1, Monty can open either #2 or #3.)

p ( #3 opened #2 ) = p( opened #2 |#3) p( #3)

1 1 = 1 = 3 3

(By rule 2.)

(If the prize is behind door #3, Monty must open door #2.)

p(#1 opened #2) 1/ 6 p( #1 | opened #2) = = p( opened #2) p( opened #2 )

p( #3 | opened #2 ) =

p ( #3 opened #2 ) 1/ 3 = p ( opened #2 ) p ( opened #2 )

p( opened #2) = p( opened #2#1) + p( opened #2#2) + p( opened #2#3) 1 1 1 = +0+ = 6 3 2

So:
p( #1 | opened #2 ) = 1/ 6 1 = 1/ 2 3 p( #3 | opened #2 ) = 1/ 3 2 = 1/ 2 3

and

Conclusions
Switching increases your chances of winning to 2/3. A similar result holds for n doors. This strategy works only if we assume that Monty behaves predictably, offering a chance to switch every time. On Lets Make a Deal, Monty would play mind games with contestants, sometimes offering them money not to open the selected door. Play the game and check out the statistics at http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html Lets Make a Deal graphics courtesy of letsmakeadeal.com

There are 3 prisoners. 1 prisoner will get a death penalty, and the remaining 2 will be released from jail. However, they do not know who will be released or be killed. Here, the possibility of one person getting a death penalty will be 1/3. One prisoner asked the guard, "Among the 2 prisoners other than me, who will be released tomorrow?" Since 2 among 3 prisoners will be released, at least 1 among the remaining 2 will be released. That is, other than the prisoner who questioned the guard. Then the guard refused to tell the prisoner. "If I tell it to you, the possibility of you getting a death penalty will become higher." Was the guard's explanation reasonable? Explain your answer regarding the math of possibility and in a logical way.

Member 3 another problem

Lets solve this problem

ANSWER IS Guard`s explanation is inappropriate

Member 5 The Mastery

Thank you