UDK: 327.8 : 355.

40
341.233 : 327.8 (73)

, . .,
.
,

,
. .

.


.
,
, ,
.
: , , , ,
.

. ,
.
, , ,
.1
,
,
, :
;
.
____________
1

The Need to Know: The Report of the Twentieth Century Fund Task Force on Covert Action
and American Democracy; The Twentieth Century Fund, New York, 1992.
VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

103

 , ,
, , ( , , ). , . , , , ,
.

,
.
.
, , .
, ,
, o,
, ,
.2
, , o , .
3 ,
, .
,
( . 1),
.
.
,
, ,
.
____________
2
3

104

, ,
, , , , 2005.
cross-referenced ().

VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

()

. 1

,
.
.
, ,
.
, a .
. 2 ,
(),4 .
( 1) ,
, ,
. () , , . : . ,
.
,
(, , .). ( ) ,
____________
4

2 3.

VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

105

, .
( ) , ,
, (
, , ).
1 :
-

2 :

3 :

4 :

5 :

6 :

. 2 5

____________
5

106

Department of Air Force, DoD, USA.

VOJNO DELO 1/2008.


,
,
.
, .
, ,
, .
() () .

. , ,

, ,
, , .
, , .
, , ,
, , ,
.6
,
,
, , , , ,
, .7

8
, , .
a ( ) , , , , , /
.
:
,
, ,
.9
____________
6

Privy Council Office (Canada) a .

7
The ISO 31000 Risk Management Guidelines on Priciples and Implementacion of Risk management.
8
Risk Management Guide, Department of Defense (DoD), USA.
9

Risk Management for Canada and Canadians: Report of the ADM Working Group on Risk Management.
VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

107

 . To
, ,
, , .

.

, ,
, ,
, , ,
.
. , ,
.
.10
, , ,
, .
, ,
. . ,
,
, . .11

, .
, , , .
____________
10
11

108

Sir Ernest Mason Satow (18431929), .

: , , , 2004.

VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

 , , .
, .

, , ,

.12
, .
, , , , .13
, , ,

, , , .14 , , .
:
, ; ; ; ( , .);
(
, , .); ; .15


:
1. , ____________
12
13
14

: , . 85.
: op. cit., . 21144.
: , .
15
Richelson, Jeffreys T., op.cit., p.3.
VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

109

 , , ,
, , , .
2. - . , , , ,
,
. .
.16
- ,
, , .
.
3. , ,

- ,
, , .
.
.
4.
. ,
- :
,
.
: . , , .
5. ( ,
, ...).

, .
____________
16

110

Barnejs, Edvard, , . . 88.

VOJNO DELO 1/2008.




, , , , , , .

17 cost-benefit , , .

. :

, ,
;
-
,
, , , ,
;
() , .
:

,
,
,
,
.
,
, ,
, ,
, . , ____________
17

(FM 3031B), - ()
3,3 $.
VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

111

 . , ,
.
, ,
.

a a

18

, .
.
- 1958.
1964. , , , ,
1970. .

, ,
.

.
, .

, ( 1). .19
,
.
____________
18

, : / Fain, Tyrus G. (et al) (ed.), The Intelligence Community: History,

Organization, and Issues, New York: R. R. Bowker Comapany, 1977; / , , ..., op. cit.; / 94th Congress 1st Session, STAFF REPORT OF THE SELECT COMMITTEE TO STUDY GOVERNMENTAL OPERATIONS WITH RESPECT TO INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITIES: COVERT ACTION IN CHILE 1963-1973, UNITED STATES SENATE, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.; / Jeffreys Jones, Rhodri, The CIA
and American Democracy, New Haven: Yale University Press, 1989; .
19
I .

112

VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

,

.

. 1

- ,
1964. . (
) 1970.
1973. ( ).
.
.
. 1

1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.

68
57
169
107
181
146
197
257

20

____________
20

.
VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

113

 , - ,
. ()
,
, .
21
, 1970. .
. , ( )

. ,

, , .
.
. , 1970. .22

1973. .
, 40, , , , . ____________
21

, . , , , ,
, , .
22
,
. , - . , , .
,
, . , , , .
1973.

114

VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

, , .
, . ,
,
.
, .23
. , ,
.
. 2

:
,
,
.
;
,
;
1970. . , ;
____________
23

1954. ,
.

VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

115


.


, ,
.
, 1970. ,

,
, .
:
, , ?
( )
.24

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

8,8

29,6

8,6

7,4

3,8

11,8

0,8

5,7

12,3

15

. 2 1969 1973.

____________
24

116

, 1970. , , . ,

: .
: , .
. .
1970. .
, , . , , . ( )
.

VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

 , ( ), .

. , , , .

.25

19701973. .
(), .
. ,
.
,
.
.26
,
. , .

, .27
____________
25

40 ,
. 40
.
, , .
,
40.
.
26

.
27
1970. - .
VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

117

 11. 09. 1973. ,

.

.

1970.
().

.

.

.
.

:
.
(, , )
.
. 3

, - ,
____________
,
. , .

118

VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

 ,
( ), .28
:
1990;
; ; , ;
.
.
,

.
. 1986. 1997.
. .
2001. , 4.590
.29
.

.30

, , ,
, .
____________
28

1973.
, 32 (
) , ,
, , , 28 .
,
, .
29
, , 30
, ,
, 11. 1973. .
, ,
,
.
30
10. 2006. , . 23
36 . ,
1973. 1990, 3.000 , 28.000 .
VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

119

 . 3

: .

: -,
.

.
.
70%
.
:


,
.

.


,

.
,
.



.

,

.

,
40,

.

,
,
.

,
.

120

VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

1.2
,
1
,
0.8
,
0.6
,
0.4
,
0.2
0

. 3

( )
, (
, , ) , () ,
.
.
,
, ,
.
, , .31 ,
.
,
, ,
32 , ,
.

____________
31

, , , . - (I).
32
, - , ,
.
VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

121

 , ,
, .33

A ,
,34 , .
:
.
;
, ,

;

.
, ;
, ;
,
, , ;

;

;
, , , .
,
, ,

11. 2001. .
____________
33

, .
34
-, 1986.
, .

122

VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

 , , ,
, , , , ,
,
.
:
1. , ., ,
, , 1999.
2. , ., : , : , 2004.
3. a, : I , , 2007.
4. , ., , : , 1996.
5. , ., , : , , , 1996.
6. Edwin, J. J., Covert Action as a Tool of Presidential Foreign Policy: From the Bay
of Pigs to Iran-Contra, Mellen Press, 1996.
7. , ., , , , 1990.
8. Jeffreys Jones, Rhodri, The CIA and American Democracy, New Haven: Yale
University Press, 1989.
9. Johnson, Loch K. America's Secret Power. New York: Oxford University Press, 1989.
10. Johnson, Loch K, Covert Action and Accountability: Decision Making for
America's Secret Foreign Policy, International Studies Quaterly, 1989.
11. , ., I II, : , 1999.
12. Mitroff, I. Ian, Pearson, M Christine, Crisis management: A Diagnostic Guide for
improving your organizations Crisis Preparedness, San Francisco: Jossey-Bass
Publishers, 1993.
13. Richelson, Jeffrey T. The U.S. Intelligence Community. Boulder: Westview Press, 1995.
14. , ., , ., : ,
, , 1997.
15. 94th Congress 1st Session, Staff report of the select committee to study
governmental operations with respect to intelligence activities: covert action in
Chile 19631973, United States senate, Washington D.C: U.S. Government
printing office, 1975.

VOJNO DELO 1/2008.

123