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1700 CD 01
1700 CD 01
NH NG CH CHNH
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Bi 7
M i lin h gi a cc hi n t ng KT-XH v phng php h i quy tng quan Xc nh m hnh h i quy tuy n tnh n nh gi c ng c a m i lin h v s ph h p c a m hnh c l ng gi tr trong tng lai d a vo m hnh h i quy M hnh h i quy b i
2
Bi u phn tn (Scatter)
th g m t t c nh ng c p (Xi , Yi)
A x is T itle
100 50 0
A x is T it le
0
Bi 7
20
40
60
4
Cc lo i m hnh h i quy
M i lin h tuy n tnh thu n M i lin h khng tuy n tnh
Khng c m i lin h
Bi 7
Yi = 0 + 1 X i + i
Bi n ph thu c (k t qu )
Bi 7
ng u nhin
d c
Bi n c l p (nguyn nhn)
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Gi tr quan st
Bi 7
YX
= 0 + 1X i
X
7
= b0 + b1X
V d
C a hng B n mu n ki m tra m i lin h gi a di n tch cc c a hng v i doanh thu hng nm. D li u m u g m 7 c a hng c a ra. Tm phng trnh tuy n tnh ph h p nh t v i d li u ny
Bi 7
Doanh thu ($000) 3,681 3,395 6,653 9,543 3,318 5,563 3,760
9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
V d bi u phn tn
12000 10000 8000
A n n u a l S a le s ($ 0 0 0 )
S q u a r e Fe e t
Bi 7
10
th tuy n tnh t t nh t
Doanh thu hng nm ($000)
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Yi =
36. 16
1 5+ 41
87 X i .4
Di n tch
Bi 7
12
Thuy t minh k t qu
Yi = 1636.415 +1.487Xi
d c l 1.487, ngha l m i khi tng X ln 1 n v , Y tng kho ng 1.487 n v . M i khi di n tch c a hng tng 1 n v , m hnh d on r ng doanh thu hng nm mong i s tn kho ng 1487$.
Bi 7
13
Syx =
SSE n2
i =1
( Yi Yi ) n2
K t lu n v h s h i quy Ki m nh t
Ki m nh t v h s h i quy c a t ng th chung
C m i lin h tuy n tnh gi a X v Y khng? Gi thi t khng v Gi thi t i H0: 1 = 0 (Khng c m i lin h tuy n tnh) H1: 1 0 (C m i lin h tuy n tnh) Ki m nh:
b1 1 t = S b1
Trong , S
b1
SYX
i =1
( X i X )2
15
V df = n - 2
Bi 7
V d : C a hng bn qu
D li u v 7 c a hng: Di n tch 1,726 1,542 2,816 5,555 1,292 2,208 1,313 Doanh thu ($000) 3,681 3,395 6,653 9,543 3,318 5,563 3,760 M hnh h i quy:
C a hng 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Bi 7
Yi = 1636.415 +1.487Xi
d c c a m hnh ny l 1.487. C m i lin h tuy n tnh gi a di n tch v doanh thu hng nm c a cc c a hng?
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K t lu n v h s h i quy V d ki m nh t
l l l l l
H0 : 1 = 0 H1 : 1 0 = .05 df = 7 - 2 = 5 Gi tr t i h n:
Bc b .025 Bc b .025
Ki m nh:
T Excel:
P-value 0.0151488 0.0002812 t S tat Inte rce pt 3.6244333 X V a ria ble 1 9.009944
Ra quy t nh:
Bc b H0
K t lu n: t C b ng ch ng cho m i quan h
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-2.5706 0 2.5706
Bi 7
K t lu n v h s h i quy
V d kho ng tin c y
c l ng kho ng tin c y cho h s h i quy b1 tn-2 Sb1
Low er 95% Upper 95% 475.810926 2797.01853 Inte rce pt X V a ria ble 11.06249037 1.91077694
V i m c tin c y 95%, kho ng tin c y cho d c l (1.062, 1.911). Khng bao g m 0. K t lu n: C m i lin h tuy n tnh ngha gi a
3. nh gi c ng c a m i lin h v s ph h p c a m hnh
Cc m c bi n i:
SST = T ng bnh phng chung
_ o bi n i c a gi tr Yi quanh gi tr trung bnh Y
Cc m c bi n i
Y _
SST = (Yi Y)2 SSE =(Yi - Yi )2
b0 Yi =
b 1X i +
_ Y X
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Xi
Bi 7
V d
K t qu t Excel c a cc c a hng
df R e g re ssio n R e sid u a l T o ta l 1 5 6 SS 30380456.12 1871199.595 32251655.71
SSR
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SSE
SST
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Xc nh h s xc nh
r2 =
SSR SST
Bi 7
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Y r2 = 1, r = -1 ^ Y =b +b X
i 0 1
X Y
r2 = 0, r = 0
^ Yi = b0 + b1Xi X
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l
Bi 7
L cn b c hai c a h s xc nh
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V d
K t qu Excel v cc c a hng: R e g re ssi o n S ta ti sti c s M u lt ip le R 0.9705572 R S q u a re 0.94198129 A d ju s t e d R S q u a re 0 . 9 3 0 3 7 7 5 4 S t a n d a rd E rro r 611.751517 O b s e rva t io n s 7 94% s bi n i doanh thu hng nm c th c gi i thch b ng s bi n i v quy m c a hng, o b ng di n tch
r2 = .94
Syx
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Yi t n 2 S yx
Gi tr t value t b ng v i df=n-2
Bi 7
( Xi X ) 1 + n n ( X X )2 i
i =1
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c l ng gi tr d on
c l ng kho ng tin c y cho m t gi tr c bi t c a Y (Yi) t i 1 gi tr c bi t c a X (Xi)
Thm 1 vo r ng kho ng ny t r ng c a kho ng tin c y trung bnh Y
Yi t n 2 S yx
1 ( Xi X ) 1+ + n n ( X X )2 i
i =1
27
Bi 7
+ b 1X i = b0 Yi
_ X
Bi 7
X
Xi
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V d : C a hng qu
D li u v 7 c a hng: Square Feet 1,726 1,542 2,816 5,555 1,292 2,208 1,313 Annual Sales ($000) 3,681 3,395 6,653 9,543 3,318 5,563 3,760
Store 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Bi 7
Yi = 1636.415 +1.487Xi
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V d : C a hng qu
c l ng kho ng tin c y cho Yi
Tm kho ng tin c y 95% cho doanh thu trung bnh hng nm c a c a hng r ng 2,000 feet vung Doanh thu d on: Yi = 1636.415 +1.487Xi = 4610.45 ($000) X = 2350.29 SYX = 611.75 tn-2 = t5 = 2.5706
Yi t n 2 Syx
( X i X )2 1 + n n ( X X )2 i
i =1
Bi 7
V d : C a hng qu
c l ng kho ng tin c y cho XY
Tm kh ng tin c y 95% cho doanh thu trung bnh hng nm c a 1 c a hng c di n tch 2000 feet vung Doanh thu d on: Yi = 1636.415 +1.487Xi = 4610.45 ($000) X = 2350.29 SYX = 611.75 tn-2 = t5 = 2.5706
Yi t n 2 Syx
Bi 7
5. M hnh h i quy b i
M hnh h i quy b i l Xc nh h s h i quy l Xy d ng m hnh
l
Bi 7
32
Population Y-intercept
Sai s ng u nhin
ei X2 X1
Bi 7
V d
Xy d ng m hnh c l ng nhin li u s d ng cho m t h gia nh trong thng 1 trn c s nhit bnh qun v dy c a t m cch nhi t o b ng inches.
Oil (Gal) Temp (0F) Insulation 275.30 40 3 363.80 27 3 164.30 40 10 40.80 73 6 94.30 64 6 230.90 34 6 366.70 9 6 300.60 8 10 237.80 23 10 121.40 63 3 31.40 65 10 203.50 41 6 441.10 21 3 323.00 38 3 52.50 58 10
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Bi 7
V d
Yi = b0 + b1 X 1i + b2 X 2i + + bp X pi
K t qu Excel
In te rc e p t X V a ria b le 1 X V a ria b le 2 C o efficien ts 562 .151 00 92 -5.43 658 05 88 -20.0 123 20 67
V i m i inch tng ln c a dy t m cch nhi t, l ng nhin li u trung bnh c s d ng gi m 20.012gallons, trong i u ki n nhi t khng i.
36
S d ng m hnh d on
c l ng l ng nhin li u bnh qun 1 thng cho m i h gia nh n u nhi t trung bnh l 30 v dy t m cch nhi t l 6 inches.
Y i = 562 . 151 5 . 437 X 1 i 20 . 012 X 2 i = 562 . 151 5 . 437 30 20 . 012 6 = 278 . 969 L ng nhin li u trung bnh
d tnh l 278.97 gallons
Bi 7
37
5.2. Xc nh h s xc nh b i
H s xc nh b i
K t qu SPSS
Reg ressio n S tatistics M ultiple R 0.982654757 R S quare 0.965610371 A djus ted R S quare 0.959878766 S tandard E rror 26.01378323 O bs ervations 15
rY2,12
SSR = SST
H s xc nh i u ch nh r2
Ch u nh h ng b i s bi n gi i thch v c m u nh hn r2
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Bi 7
Ki m nh m c ngha chung
Ch ra c m i lin h tuy n tnh gi a t t c cc bi n X v i Y hay khng S d ng ki m nh F Gi thi t: H0: 1 = 2 = = p = 0 (Khng c m i lin h tuy n tnh) H1: C t nh t 1 i 0 (C t nh t 1 bi n c l p nh h ng t i Y)
Bi 7 39
V d : K t qu Excel
ANOV A df Re gre ssion Re sidua l Tota l 2 12 14 SS 228014.6 8120.603 236135.2 MS F S ignificance F 114007.3 168.4712028 1.65411E -09 676.7169
p = 2, s l ng bi n nguyn nhn
p value
n-1
MRS MSE = Ki m nh F
Bi 7 40
V d
H0: 1 = 2 = = p =0 l H1: t nh t 1 I 0
l
l l l
Ki m nh th ng k:
F =
168.47
(k t qu Excel)
0
Bi 7
3.89
Ki m nh ngha c bi t
Cho bi t c m i lin h tuy n tnh gi a bi n Xi v Y hay khng S d ng ki m nh th ng k t Gi thi t: H0: i = 0 (Khng c m i lin h tuy n tnh) H1: i 0 (C m i lin h tuy n tnh gi a Xi v Y)
Bi 7 42
V d : K t qu Excel
Ki m nh t cho X1 (Nhi t )
C o efficien ts S tan d ard E rro r In te rce p t 562.151009 21.09310433 X V a ria b le 1 -5.4365806 0.336216167 X V a ria b le 2 -20.012321 2.342505227 t S tat 26.65094 -16.1699 -8.54313
Ki m nh t cho X2 ( dy)
Bi 7 43
V d
Nhi t c th t s nh h ng t i nhu c u tiu dng ch t t hng thng khng? Ki m nh v i = 0.05.
l
H0: 1 = 0 H1: 1 0 df = 12 Gi tr t i h n:
Bc b H 0
Bc b H 0
.025
-2.1788
Bi 7
.025 0 2.1788 Z
b1 t n p 1Sb1
Coefficients 562.151009 Intercept X Variable 1 -5.4365806 X Variable 2 -20.012321 Lower 95% Upper 95% 516.1930837 608.108935 -6.169132673 -4.7040285 -25.11620102 -14.90844
-6.169 1 -4.704 L ng tiu th ch t t trung bnh gi m trong kho ng t 4.7 gallons n 6.17 gallons m i khi nhi t tng 10 F.
Bi 7 45
5.3. Xy d ng m hnh
l
l l
H i quy t ng b c
Nh m l a ch n m hnh ph h p
Ti p c n t p h p con m t cch t t nh t
46
Bi 7
TM T T
l l l l l
Bi 7
Cc lo i m hnh h i quy Xc nh m hnh h i quy tuy n tnh n Cc m c bi n i trong h i quy tng quan c l ng cc gi tr d on Xc nh m hnh h i quy b i
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