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How Humans Impact the Environment

Jonathan M. Links, PhD Johns Hopkins University

Environmental Sciences
The natural environment Ecology Mans impact on the natural environment Ecology and environmental engineering The environments impact on man Environmental health sciences

The Environment and Health

The natural environment The built environment The social environment

Human/Environment Impact Circle

Humans Environment

Precepts
The physical environment, our habitat, is the most important determinant of human health Protection of the environment and preservation of ecosystems are the most fundamental steps in preventing human illness Environmental problems are global and long-term Human belief systems are part of the problem

The Earth as a Fishbowl

Ecosystem
Solar energy

Natural Resources Energy Resources Environmental Services

Heat

Small Population and Little Technology

Small population and little technologysociety has low impact on environment

ENVIRONMENT Deplete SOCIETY Traditional economics Pollute

Our Expanding Numbers

World population growth throughout history and near-term future
10 9 8 7
6 billion1998 5 billion1987 4 billion1974 3 billion1959 2 billion1938 1 billion1830
2.5 M yrs ago

Billions of People

6 5 4 3 2 1

7000 B.C.

4000 B.C.

1000 B.C.

A.D. A.D. 1 2040

Larger Population and Increased Technology

Larger population and increased technologysociety has great impact on environment

ENVIRONMENT

Deplete

SOCIETY

Pollute

Environmental economics
10

Societal Needs and Wants

N E E D S

W A N T S

W A N T S

ENVIRONMENT

11

Why Do We Pollute the Environment?

Human behavior Needs Wants Mitigating forces Environmental laws Market adjustments Informal social regulation

Driving forces Population Technology Economic, political, and social values

Environmental change

12

The Industrial Process and the Environment

Chemical inputs (raw materials) Power inputs (gas, oil coal) Other inputs (water)

I N D U S T R Y

Air pollution Water pollution Toxic waste

The product itself

13

Environmental Impact (A Model)

I=PxAxT
I = environmental impact; P = population; A = affluence; T = technology

Growth in environ. impact

Growth in population

Growth in affluence

Growth in technology

Consumption
14

U.S. Material Consumption Trends

800 Million Metric Tons 600 400 200 0 1910 Indust. Minerals Metals Nonfuel Organics Paper Wood Agriculture

1930

1950

1970

1990

15

U.S. Household Ownership of Appliances

100 80 Percent 60 40 20 0 1960 Color TV 1970 Air Conditioners 1980 Microwave 1990 2000 Video Recorders
16

World Fossil Fuel Use

Million Tons of Oil Equivalent

9000 7500 6000 4500 3000 1500 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

17

Sulfur and Nitrogen Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning

Worldwide emissions from burning fossil fuels

80 60 40 20 0 1950 1960 1970 Sulfur 1980 1990 2000

18

Million Tons

Nitrogen Dioxide

The London Killer Smog of 1952

Daily concentrations of smoke and sulfur dioxide are related to the number of excess deaths each day in London

Adapted by CTLT from.

19

World Automobile Production and Fleet

40

600

Production (millions)

30 Fleet (millions) 400 20 200 10

0 1950 1960 1970 Production 1980 Fleet 1990 2000

20

MSW and Per Capita Generation of MSW

Municipal solid waste (MSW) and per capita generation of MSW
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Million Tons of MSW Pounds/Person/Day
21

5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

Pounds/Person/Day

Million Tons

The Big Questions

1. 2.

What is this pollution doing to us? What can we do about it?

22

Problem-Solving Paradigm: Six Steps

1. 2. 3. 4.

5. 6.

Define the problem Measure its magnitude Understand key determinants Develop intervention/ prevention strategies Set policy/priorities Implement and evaluate

Risk assessment

Risk management

23

Risk Assessment and Management

Exposure assessment Doseresponse assessment

Hazard identification

Risk characterization Risk communication

Risk management
24

Dose-Response Curve

100% R e s p o n s e 0 Dose
25

Carcinogens Non-carcinogens

Dose-Response Curve

Observable Range R e s p o n s e

Range of Inference

Dose
26

Risk Management Approaches

Engineering Process controls Emission reduction Social and behavioral Worker training Risk communication and risk reduction

27

Risk Management Approaches

Regulatory Emission limits Mandated processes

28

Perceived vs. Actual Risk

Underprotection Public Policy Optimum Protection Public Policy Overprotection Public Policy

Perceived Risk

Perceived Risk

Perceived Risk

Actual Risk
29

Recognition of a Broader Environmental Impact

Food security Climate change Deforestation Desertification Land degradation Stratospheric ozone depletion Loss of biodiversity

30