California Heat Waves in the Present and Future

Alexander Gershunov and Kristen Guirguis Climate, Atmospheric Science and Physical Oceanography (CASPO) Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Extremes: what they are and how they can change

Probability density function (PDF)

Extreme relative to what? Frequency and intensity Change in mean Change in shape
Change in variance Change in structure

Change in both

Working definition of extreme heat: Daytime Heat Intensity

Sacramento Tmax
Locally extreme temperature exceeding a high percentile threshold t* (e.g. 99%-ile)
2006 Tmax
o o o o o o o o o o

o threshold (42.2C/108F) o o o o o o o o oo o o o o o o oo o o o o o oo o o o o o o o o o o o oo o o o ooooooooo oo ooo oo o o o o o oooooo ooooo oo oo o oo ooooo o o o o o o o o ooo o ooo o oo o o oo oooooo o o oo oo oooo o ooo o o oo o oooo o ooo oo o o o o o o o o o o o o oo ooo o o o oooooo o 99th percentile in C of JJA Tmax over oo o o o the base period 1950 1999. o o o Temperatures have a climatological

99th percentile thresholds o o o o o oo o o o o o o o o o o o o o oo o oo o o o o o oo oo o o o o o x oo o o o o o 43.3 o o o o o o o o 42.3 o oo oo o o o 41.7 o o o o o 40.6 o o o o oo 39.4 o o 38.7 o o oo o o oo o 36.2 o o oo oo 35 o o o 32.4 oo o 22.2

20

25

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35

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45

Mean Tmax

0.01 probability of exceeding these thresholds and should be considered locally extreme.
Gershunov, Cayan and Iacobellis, Journal of Climate, 2009

15
5

10 15 20 25 30

10 15 20 25 30

10 15 20 25 30

Jun

Jul

Aug

Working definition of extreme heat: Nighttime Heat Intensity

Sacramento Tmin
Locally extreme temperature exceeding a high percentile threshold t* (e.g. 99%-ile)
25

99th percentile thresholds

o o o o o oo o o o oo oo o o o oo ooo o o o o o ooo o o o oo o o ooooo o ooooo oo o oooooooooooo o o ooooo o oooo o ooo ooooooooooo ooooo oo o oo oo o o o o o oooooooooooo ooo o o oo o o o o o o o o o oooooo oo oooooooo o ooo o

o o o o o oo o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o oo o o o o o o oo oo o o o o x oo o o o o o o 29C/84F o 26.5 o o o o o o o o oo o 24 o 2006 Tmin oo o o o o 22.8 o o oo o o o o 21.1 o o o o o o o oo 18.9 o o o o o o oo o o threshold (22.8C/73F) o 18.3 oo o 17.2 o o oo oo ooo o o 16.1 o o o o o o o 15 o oo oo o o 12.8 o o oo o o o o

20

Mean Tmin
5 10 15 20 25 30 5 10 15 20 25 30 5 10 15 20 25 30

99th percentile in C of JJA Tmin over the base period 1950 1999. Temperatures have a climatological 0.01 probability of exceeding these thresholds and should be considered locally extreme.

10

15

Jun

Jul

Aug

Gershunov, Cayan and Iacobellis, Journal of Climate, 2009

GREAT HEAT WAVES AND THEIR OVERALL REGIOINAL MAGNITUDES Local intensity + duration + spatial extent in degree days summed over the region for the six greatest daytime and six greatest nighttime events

2006
degree days per station
daytime magnitude nighttime magnitude 6

2003
1960 1961 jun 1961 aug

1972
1981
1983 1990 1992

2002 2001

0 1950

1960

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1980

1990

2000

Gershunov, Cayan and Iacobellis, Journal of Climate, 2009

California Heat Waves are Changing

INDIVIDUAL HEAT WAVES
daytime magnitude nighttime magnitude

End of July 2006

The heat wave of July 2006 was an unprecedented deadly event. 99% of cases lived in zip codes where > 50% of residents live below Poverty Guide Line

147 total deaths

0 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

TOTAL HEAT WAVE ACTIVITY

8

Day > Night magnitude

6

~600 total excess deaths

(Ostro et al. 2009)

Night > Day magnitude

California heat wave activity is increasing. Specifically, nighttime-accentuated, humid heat waves are on the rise
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

California Heat Waves and Climate Change: CNRM

ONE CLIMATE MODEL UNDER THE MILD EMISSIONS B1 SCENARIO PAST
8 6

50

PRESENT observations

FUTURE

40

30

20

0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Day > Night magnitude Night > Day magnitude

10

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

California Heat Waves and Climate Change: CNRM

ONE CLIMATE MODEL UNDER THE MILD EMISSIONS B1 SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT THE OBSERVED CHANGE IS A TIP OF THE ICEBERG
50

PAST
8 6

PRESENT observations

FUTURE

40

30

20

0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Day > Night magnitude Night > Day magnitude

10

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

California Heat Waves, a Regional View: Observations

A stationary view threshold exceedance

Gershunov and Guirguis 2012

California Heat Waves, a Regional View: Projections

A stationary view threshold exceedance

Gershunov and Guirguis 2012

California Heat Waves

A non-stationary view: 95th 50th percentile distance difference (future climate recent climate) = heat wave intensity change relative to contemporary, evolving climate

Gershunov and Guirguis 2012

California Heat Waves

Gershunov and Guirguis 2012

Public Health Impacts: Direct Effects 2006 Heat Wave in California

Heat-Related Deaths in Counties with 10 Deaths July 15 August 1, 2006

99% of cases lived in zip codes where > 50% of residents live below Poverty Guide Line

Source: R. Trent, T. Kim. 2007. CDPH

Health Impacts of the 2006 Event

Gershunov, Johnston, Margolis and Guirguis 2011

Looking ahead

Global climate change is playing out with regional idiosyncrasies In California, a tendency towards more humid heat waves and unprecedented nighttime temperatures impacts health While the coast is projected to experience less average warming than the inland areas, coastal heat waves are projected to become hotter relative to future average summertime temperatures This bodes ill for coastal communities (the largest population centers) of California that are neither physiologically nor technologically acclimated to extreme heat

California Heat Waves

SLP anomalies associated with California heat waves Obs CNRM GFDL CCSM

Gershunov and Guirguis 2012