CommunityBased

Climate Adaptation Planning

A Case Study of Oakland, California

Matthew Heberger, Pacific Institute, Oakland, California June 25, 2012

Talk Outline
Cancommunityinvolvementleadtobetter climateadaptationplanning? Howcanwetranslateresultsfromclimate modelsinawaythatismeaningfulto communityorganizations and residents? Howcanwedeterminesocialvulnerability to climatechangeimpacts? Whataretheimplicationsforclimate adaptationpolicies andplanning?

Oakland, California

Project Background
PartoftheCaliforniaClimateChangeBiennial AssessmentorderedbyGovernorSchwarzeneggerin 2005,analyzingclimateimpactstothestate Dozensofpeerreviewedstudieshavebeen publishedcoveringoceans,coasts,watersupply, agriculture,andmore Our2009studyofsealevelrisefoundlargelow incomeandminoritypopulationsareatrisk The2011roundofstudiesmovepastclimate impactstowardsVulnerabilityandAdaptation

Why Oakland?
Economiccenterwithvulnerableassets:seaport, airport,majortransportationinfrastructure, neighborhoods,wetlands,watersupplies Alargeanddiversecommunityvulnerabletoa varietyofclimateimpacts:flooding,wildfires,heat waves,impactsonfood,water,energy Certainpopulationssharecharacteristicsthatmake themmorevulnerabletoadverseeffectsofclimate change

Why does social vulnerability matter?

1957:HurricaneAudreystrikestheLouisiana coast.Deathseighttimeshigheramongblacks thanamongwhites. 1983Study:whitehouseholdshave$2,370 lessofafinancialburdenfollowingadisaster thanotherracialgroups 2006:OneyearafterHurricaneKatrina,only 43%ofNewOrleansblackpopulationhas returnedtothecity;comparedto64%of whites.

Exposure Vulnerability = Risk

LouisJones,81,andCatherineMcZeal,62,walktoward theSuperdomeinthedaysafterHurricaneKatrina

Factors Influencing Vulnerability and Resilience

VulnerabilityFactors individualorcommunity characteristicsthatreducetheabilitytoadapttoorcope withclimatechangeimpactsonceexposed(e.g.forflooding, havingadisability) ResilienceFactors individualorcommunitycharacteristics thatincreasetheabilitytoadapttoorcopewithclimate changeimpactsonceexposed(e.g.forflooding,having emergencyfood/watersupplies)

Population Vulnerable to Flooding in California (with 1.4 m sea level rise)

VulnerabilityFactor TotalPopulationatRisk NonEnglishspeakers Novehicle LowIncome Personsofcolor Renters(vs.Homeowners) Numberof People 480,000 41,000 45,000 125,000 208,000 269,000

Developing a Geographic Climate Vulnerability Index

Focusesonvulnerabilitytotheclimatechange impactswehavedatafor:extremeheat,coastal flooding,wildfire,andairquality Usesanindicatortomeasureeachvulnerability factorwehaveidentified(unlessdataisunavailable) Combinesvulnerabilityindicatorsintooneoverall climatevulnerabilityscore(equalweightingforeach)

Inputs to our modified Social Vulnerability Index

Householdswithnovehicle Peopleofcolor Householdsinpoverty Renteroccupied households Over65andlivingalone Havejobsworkingoutdoors Treecanopycover Underage18 Unemployment Foodaccess Pretermbirths Householdswithair conditioning Populationover25witha diploma BornoutsidetheU.S. Imperviousareas Residentslivingin institutions Householdswithlimited English Pregnancy Youthfitness

Mapping Projected Climate Change Impacts

IMPACT Extreme Heat INDICATOR Daysper yearwhentemperatureexceeds95 percentileofhistoricaverage. Population within10kmofahighriskfirearea.

WildfireRisk

Coastal Flooding

Areasatriskfroma100yearfloodeventfollowinga 1.0meter(39inches)and1.4meter(55inches)risein sealevels. Concentration ofParticulate Matter(PM2.5)above12 microgramspercubicmeter(g/m).

AirQuality

Social Vulnerability to Climate Change by Census Tract

Identifying areas of high impact and high vulnerability

1. Areaswithhighest riskofheat,air pollution,wildfire, andcoastal flooding. 2. Socialvulnerability scoresbyCensus Tract 3. Vulnerabilityof populationwithin highimpactareas

Social vulnerability in areas with high heat risk

Populationvulnerabilityinareaswithhigh exposuretoextremeheatdays (>38days)underA2scenariobyendof century
Social Vulnerability Low Medium High Total Population 8,680,000 8,780,000 10,100,000 27,600,000

National Social Vulnerability Data (US)

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) score for all census block groups in Coastal US states By the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in partnership with the University of South Carolina. uses Census 2000 data for analyzing 31 variables to calculate index http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/data/SoVI/

Our Research Involved Community Participation from the Beginning

Why?Localgovernmentsandcommunityorganizationsare importantpartners,becausewillbethefirsttorespondto manyclimaterelatedimpacts Communityparticipationhelpsmaketheresearchrelevant andmeaningful.Theyaremorelikelytoacceptthescienceif theyplayedapartindevelopingit. WecollaboratedwiththeOaklandClimateActionCoalition: 30community,environmental,labor,andotherorganizations Ourpartnersprovidedinputontheanalyticalmethods and data fortheanalysis;theyalsotolduswhatoutputs wouldbe usefultothemindoingoutreachandeducation

How Have the 25 Largest US Cities done climate planning?

20
Climate ActionPlan

12
Climate Adaptation

7
IdentifyVulnerable Populations

Community Involvement
Communityengagementcanserveasbothameans andanend Meetingstosolicitfeedbackondraftplansare typicallydesignedtogetbuyin,ratherthan provideopenforumforgatheringcommunity concerns Fewcitieshavetriedtoreachhistoricallyunder representedcommunitiesinclimateplanning Communityengagementduringeachofthreestages oftheadaptationplanningprocess:research, planning,andimplementation

Some Lessons Learned in Promoting Adaptation Planning

Mapsmakeitreal Leadwithimpactstojustify mitigationandguideadaptation Manypeoplehaveexperienced climateimpacts,butbyanother name:asthmaattacks,heatwaves, Therearemanynoregretsactions:building communityresilienceandimprovingemergency responsewillhelpinothersituations (earthquake,tsunami,flupandemic)

Example of Adaptation Options

7.Developearlywarningsystemsforflooding
Description: Supportmeteorologicalforecastingandearlywarningsabout possiblefloodconditions Advantage:Allowsresidentsmoretimetotakeproperactiontoprotect theirhealthandproperty Disadvantage:Expensivetoensureefficacyandmassdissemination EquityConcern:Mustbedesignedtocommunicateeffectivelytoall groups,especiallyparticularlyvulnerablegroups;maynoteffectively addresstheirneedsiftheystillhavelimitedmobility PolicySolution: Providewarningsinmultiplelanguages Providewarningsthroughmultipleculturallyoreconomically appropriate/accessibleinformationstreams,i.e.,TV,radio,telephone, SMS,peopledelivered,etc. Establishasystemofneighborhoodoutreachworkerstodisseminate informationandcheckinonparticularlyvulnerableresidents Conductreverse911phonecallstothe elderlyandthoseatrisk Increasedaytimeoutreachtohomeless.

Our Partners were not drawn in by this kind of information:

Smallscalegridded climatemodeloutput

Timeseriesofprojectedemissions, temperatures,etc.

SeaLevel Rise Mapping

Summer Temperature Distribution

Summer Temperature Distribution

Summer Temperature Distribution

Alameda Countys Summertime Temperatures will feel like

2030

2080

Another graphic/summary that did not really work

0.225 0.200 0.175 Probability 0.150 0.125 0.100 0.075 0.050 A2 2010 - 2039 A2 2040 - 2069 A2 2070 - 2099 B1 2010 - 2039 B1 2040 - 2069 B1 2070 - 2099 Baseline

Probabilityofoneormorefiresina30yearperiodinthecounty.

Fire Risk Present

Fire Risk MidCentury

Fire Risk End of Century

Change in Fire Risk: near term

Change in fire risk: centurys end

Conclusions
Californiasclimateimpactsstudieshaveproduceda tremendousamountofvaluablescienceand underscoredtheimportanceofclimatechangeto thestate. Anongoingchallengeistotranslatethisinformation, tomakeitusefultolocalgovernmentanddecision makers Whileitmaynotbetheir#1priority,community organizationsareinterestedinclimatechangeand wanttoknowmore.Theywillnothesitatetotellyou whatworksandwhatdoesnot!

Acknowledgments
Coauthors:HeatherCooley,CatalinaGarzon,EliMoore FundedbytheCaliforniaEnergyCommissionsPublic InterestEnergyResearch(PIER)program. Thankstoourcollaborators:theOaklandClimateAction CoalitionandtheEllaBakerCenterforHumanRights. Thereportdiscussedhereiscurrentlyundergoingreview andwillbepublishedin2012. AlloftheCaliforniaClimateImpacts&Adaptationstudies arefreelyavailableat:http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/
Pacific Institute Oakland, California 94612, U.S.A. 510-251-1600 www.pacinst.org