IFM Chapter 2

ThS Trn Th Ln Email: lantranthe@yhaoo.
com
BI 2
CC NHN T TC NG N TGH NH NC V T GI HI OI
ThS. Trn Th Ln Tr Th Khoa Kinh t quc t, COE, VNU t qu t
CC NHN T XC NH TGH
Mc tiu:
S thay i ca TGH c o lng nh th no? TGH c hnh thnh nh th no? Cc nhn t chi phi s thay i ca TGH nh th no?
ThS Trn Th Ln Email: lantranthe@yhaoo.com
S thay i ca TGH
TGH l gi ca mt ng tin c tnh theo cc n v ca mt ng tin khc. TGH c thay i khng? Quan st gi 1 USD ti FOREX ca Vit nam (theo t gi lin ngn hng)

05/03/08: 1 USD = 15.930 VN 06/03/08: 1 USD = 15.910 VN TG thng thay i (tnh tng ngy).
C th o lng s thay i ca TGH qua % thay i

= (S - St-1)/ St-1 x 100%. S > St-1 => ng tin yt gi ln gi ($ tng gi so vi VND) S < St-1 => ng tin yt gi gim gi ($ gim gi so vi VND) Trong lch s, mt s ng tin c gi tr thay i ln ( 5%) qua 24h
ThS Trn Th Ln Email: lantranthe@yhaoo.com 3
International Finance Management @ Jeff Madura
Mt s minh ha
Biu v t gi VND/USD trong thi gian qua Biu v t gi USD/EUR trn th gii Biu v t gi USD/EUR Vit Nam => Ngoi t l hng ha rt c bit c gi dao ng hng ngy.
Ti sao t gi li hay thay i?

Phng php lun: t vn t gi hi oi c hnh thnh nh th no?. Cch tip cn: TGH l gi mt loi hng ha c hnh thnh theo quan h cung cu.
Khi cung v cu cn bng th xc nh c TGH y l TGH cn bng trn mt FX nht nh
M hnh cung & cu: Gi nh

Xt th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam vi 2 ng tin USD, VN. Gi thit hng ha Vit Nam v M c th thay th cho nhau Cu USD c hiu nh l s lng USD gi thit c yu cu trn th trng theo nhng mc gi khc nhau ca USD (tnh bng VN) Cung USD l s lng USD s c bn trn th trng ngoi hi i ly lng VN c yu cu theo tng mc gi ca USD cho trc. Cung USD th hin cu v VN, v vy, cung USD y c bit nh l cung USD cho trao i vi VN.
S cn bng ca TGH
Trong m hnh ny, gi ca USD tnh bng VND s c xc nh
E (VND/USD)
bi s giao nhau gia ng cu v ng cung v USD trn FX

S
im E(E*,Q*) xc nh t gi hi oi v lng USD cn bng
E*
Q*
Q ($)
S cn bng ca TGH
ng cu USD c dc m E DUSD . Nguyn nhn: khi E thp th H ca M s r hn i vi ngi VN
E (VND/USD)
Ngi VN c xu hng TD nhiu H ca M hn. NK H t M DUSD
ng cung USD c dc dng E SUSD . Nguyn nhn:khi E cao th H ca VN tr nn r hn i vi ngi M. Ngi M c xu hng tiu dng H ca VN nhiu hn SUSD .
E E*
Q*
Q ($)
S cn bng ca TGH
E1 >E* SUSD >DUSD d cung USD p lc gi USD E ti mc cn bng E* E2 < E* SUSD < DUSD d cu USD p lc gi USD E ti mc cn bng E*
S D cung $ E E* E2 D cu $
E (VND/USD)
D E1
Q*
Q ($)
Tnh lng v s thay i TGH

Tnh lng ca mt ng tin biu hin kh nng d dng chuyn i ca ng tin trn th trng ngoi hi (tc l c nhiu giao dch mua v bn vi khi lng ln). Tnh lng c tc ng ti mc thay i ca TGH. Nhng ng tin c tnh lng thp trn th trng giao ngay c mc thay i trong TGH ln hn so vi nhng ng tin c tnh lng cao hn. Bi v, i vi nhng ng tin c tnh lng thp hn th gi ca chng phi thay i mt mc nht nh p ng nhng thay i trong cc iu kin ca cung v cu, trong khi , nhng ng tin c tnh lng cao hn s c mc thay i trong TG t hn v vi nhiu ngi mua v bn hn s d dng khp c giao dch cung v cu hn. Tm li, tnh lng cng thp nhy cm trong thay i TGH cng cao.
V D FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES February 12, 2008 (FED)
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Nhng nhn t tc ng TGH

T l lm pht tng i Li sut tng i Thu nhp tng i Nhng s can thip ca Nh nc K vng ca th trng v TGH trong tng lai S tng tc ca cc yu t
Nhng nhn t tc ng TGH

Cch tip cn:
- Lp lun theo hng s thay i cc nhn t
dn n cung v cu ngoi t thay i. - Cu ngoi t ph thuc bi cu v hng ha, dch v nc ngoi (cu Nhp Khu). - Cung ngoi t (cho trao i) biu th cu ni t v ph thuc vo cu v hng ha v dch v trong nc (cu Nhp khu ca nc ngoi).
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T l lm pht tng i
Mc LF tng i thay i hot ng TMQT thay i nh hng n cung v cu ca 1 ng tin khin TG thay i
VND/USD S1 S0 E2 B
VN tng tng i so vi US PVN tng
PUS r hn Cu v H US tng
Cu v H VN gim
Cung USD gim

E1 A D1 USD
Cu USD tng
D0 0 Q1
gi ca VND so vi USD
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Li sut tng i
Li sut thay i tc ng n hot ng mua bn cc ti sn ti chnh trong v ngoi nc Ti sn ti chnh c n gin ha y l cc khon tin gi v s gia tng li sut y hm s gia tng li sut ca khon tin gi. Li sut tng c ngha l khon tin gi tr nn hp dn hn => cu v khon tin gi tng. Khon tin gi c nh danh bng ng tin no th cu v ng tin s ph thuc vo cu v khon tin gi.
Li sut tng i
rVN tng cao tng i so vi rUS VND/USD S1 S2 E1 A Cu VND tng Cu USD gim Cu v tin gi nh danh = VND tng Cu v cc khon tin gi M gim rVn tng rUS gim
E2
B D2
Cung USD dng mua VND tng D1
Cu USD dch chuyn tri
VND tng gi so vi USD

0 Q
Triu USD
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Li sut tng i
M rng m hnh: Vn li sut ca nc th ba
VND/USD S1 S2 E1 A
V d: rTQ tng tng i cao hn so vi rVN cc khon u t TQ tr nn hp dn hn so vi VN cu v chng khon VN gim cung v USD i ly VN s nh hn so vi trng hp TQ khng tng LS USD tng gi tr li so vi VN.
E2
D1 0 Q
D2
Triu USD
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Li sut tng i
Li sut thc t: LS cao c th phn nh k vng v mt t l LF tng i cao cc nh u t lo ngi s gim gi ca ng tin nh u t QG c LS tng tng i ch s quan trng hn l li sut thc t (pt Fisher) v n phn nh c ng thi c 2 yu t LS danh ngha v TLLF
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Thu nhp tng i

S thay i trong thu nhp gia 2 QG nh hng n lng cu nhp khu c yu cu => c th nh hng TGH. YVN tng tng i so vi YUS => cu NK tng (cu v hng ha US tng) => cu v US tng; cung v US khng thay i => gi USD tng. Tuy nhin, thc t, Y c th nh hng gin tip ln TGH thng qua thay i LS. (Y tng khin k vng v LS tng => YVN tng khin VN tng)
Thu nhp tng i

VND/USD (nghn) SS 16 A 15 D1 DD 0 10 15
Triu USD
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S can thip ca Nh nc
p t cc hng ro ngoi hi (quy nh v vic chuyn ngoi t; thu thu nhp /v u t nc ngoi ) Thit lp cc hng ro thng mi (thu quan, cc quy nh theo TBT, SPS ) Can thip vo th trng ngoi hi (can thip hu hiu, v hiu ) Tc ng lm thay i cc bin s kinh t v m nh: li sut, lm pht, v mc thu nhp.
K vng ca th trng v TGH

FOREX rt nhy cm, c khuynh hng phn ng li bt k thng tin c tc ng tng lai => dn n s hnh thnh k vng ca th trng v TGH tng lai => thay i THG hin hnh. V d: tin tc v s gia tng tim nng ca LF ca US => xu hng bn ra USD gia tng => to ra p lc gim gi USD khin USD gim gi ngay lp tc. Cc nh u t (NTHM, cty bo him, qu tin t ) hnh thnh trng thi tin t da trn s d on v nhng thay i v LS cc QG khc nhau. V d: Khi cc nh u t k vng LS Canada tng => dng vn vo nhiu hn => to ra p lc tng gi CAD => cc nh u t c th hng li v h mua CAD trc khi c s thay i V d: cc cuc u c tn cng vo ng Bath (G.Soros)
K vng ca th trng v TGH

Tc ng ca nhng tn hiu i vi hot ng u c tin t - Ngoi LS, cc nh u c cn da trn cc tn hiu ca cc iu kin kinh t tng lai (cc bin s v u t, ngoi thng, lm pht, tht nghip, chu k kinh doanh ) tin hnh u c. - S phn ng qu mc ca cc nh u c i vi nhng d bo v s thay i ca cc iu kin kinh t tng lai: c th khin mt ng tin tng mnh trong hm nay nhng li gim gi ng k vo ngy mai => c bit nh l s sa sai ca th trng (c im chung ca cc th trng ti chnh: vng, chng khon ). - cc th trng mi ni, cc nh u c tin t c nh hng ng k i vi s thay i ca TGH bi nhng th trng ny c tnh lng thp hn cc th trng ln hn.
S tng tc ca cc yu t
Cc giao dch trong FOREX ch yu phc v cc hot ng thng mi (hng ha v dch v) v ti chnh (vn) ra, vo mt quc gia. Cc giao dch lin quan n TM thng t phn ng hn i vi cc tin tc so vi cc giao dch v ti chnh. S tm tt tc ng ca mt s nhn t i vi TGH. C th chia cc nhn t tc ng ti TGH thnh 2 nhm: nhm nhn t lin quan n thng mi, v nhm nhng nhn t ti chnh.
S tng hp cc nhn t
Nhm nhn t thng mi Lm pht Thu nhp Cc hng ro ngoi thng Cu nc ngoi cho hng ha trong nc Cu trong nc cho hng ha nc ngoi
Nhm nhn t ti chnh Cu trong nc cho chng khon nc ngoi Cu nc ngoi cho chng khon trong nc
Li sut Cc gii hn dng vn
Cu ngoi t
Cung ngoi t (cho trao i)

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S tng tc ca cc yu t
Khi iu kin c 1 nhn t thay i, trong khi cc nhn t khc khng i b vi phm, cn phi phn tch th no? Hay khi c nhiu hn 1 nhn t tc ng ng thi n TGH th d on th no? V d: s gia tng thu nhp c th khin tng NK => ng ni t gim gi; NHNG thu nhp tng cng phn nh k vng v li sut cao hn khin dng ngoi t vo nhiu hn => ng ni t tng gi. Vy, ng ni t tng hay gim gi? Trong bi cnh lm pht Vit Nam tng v li sut M gim, TGH VND/USD thay i nh th no? Gii thch? Lin h thc t - Bnh lun.
S tng tc ca cc yu t
Phng php lun:
- Khi c nhiu nhn t tc ng phi xem nhn t c tc ng ln nht trn 2 phng din: quy m v thi gian tc ng => d on tt nht c th. - Xem xt bi cnh c th, nhm nhn t thng mi lin quan n khi lng giao dch ca hot ng thng mi; nhm nhn t ti chnh lin quan n lng vn chu chuyn gia 2 quc gia. - Trong bi cnh nn KTTG hin nay, chu chuyn vn din ra gia cc quc gia ngy cng c khi lng ln, nhanh => hm li sut rt quan trng.
u t da trn vic d on s thay i ca TGH

Ngn hng Chicago k vng TG gia US $/NZ $ tng t 0.50$ ln 0.52$ trong 30 ngy. Gi s, NH Chicago c th vay 20 triu $ (ngn hn). Cc thng s v li sut vay v cho vay i vi NH Chicago v 2 ng tin nh sau: - US $: RL = 6.72% v RB= 7.20% - NZ $: RL = 6.48% v RB = 6.96% => Ngn hng s hnh ng nh th no?

Vi cc thng tin cho, NH Chicago c th thc hin cc giao dch nh sau: - Vay 20 triu $ (vi li sut vay l RL = 7.20% tng ng 0.6%/ 30 ngy) - i 20 triu $ ly 40 triu NZ $ (Spot US $/NZ $ = 0.50) - Cho vay 40 triu NZ $ vi RL = 6.48% trong 30 ngy (RL = 0.54%). Sau 30 ngy, NH Chicago nhn c gc ln li = 40,216,000 NZ $. - S dng khon tin nhn c NH Chicago tr khon vay v li vay bao gm: 20,000,000 x (1 + 0.6%) = 20,120,000 NZ $.

Gi thit k vng v TGH gia US $/NZ $ ca NH Chicago dng nh d kin, Spot ti thi im sau 30 ngy (US $/NZ $) = 0.52 => s NZ$ m NH Chicago phi tr sau 30 ngy l 20,120,000/0.52 = 38,692,308 NZ$. Vy, li nhun t vic u c l 40,216,000 38,692,308 = 1,523,692 NZ$ hay tng ng 792,320 US $. Trong trng hp, NH Chicago d on ng NZ $ gim gi t 0.50 xung 0.48 th NH c th thc hin u t theo hng ngc li: vay NZ $ v i sang US $ ri cho vay. Ch , trong cc giao dch, NH thm ch khng phi s dng n vn ca n. Vic thc hin cc hot ng u c TGH ca cc NH c bit n nh l thit lp trng thi ngoi hi mang tnh u c. Trong thc t, c mt s NH c li nhun vt qu 100 triu $ ch trong vng 3 thng.
10

Biu din trng thi lung tin ca NH Chicago (theo $) CF0 Vay 20 triu USD Cho vay 40 triu NZD Trng thi lung tin rng +S$ - S$ 0 CF1 (sau 30 ngy) - S (1 + RB) + S1 (1 + RL) S1 (1 + RL) - S (1 + RB)
Ch : Do Spot NZD/USD sau 30 ngy thay i khc vi Spot ti ngy pht sinh, nn S chuyn thnh S1...
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Tng kt Bnh lun

TGH thng thay i qua khong thi gian nht nh (ngy, tun, thng, nm ). S thay i ca TGH tc ng n sc khe ca nn kinh t cng nh cc tc nhn trong nn kinh t. C th xc nh s thay i ca TGH thng qua cch tip cn v TGH cn bng trong m hnh cung - cu. T duy phn tch: nhng nhn t tc ng lm cung, cu v ngoi t dch chuyn => TGH cn bng s thay i. ng dn cho lp lun l thng qua cu v hng ha trong nc (tng ng vi cung ngoi t bn); v cu v hng ha nc ngoi ( tng ng vi cu ngoi t).
Tng kt Bnh lun

C 5 nhn t tc ng khin TGH thay i, gm: Li sut, lm pht, mc thu nhp, s can thip CP, k vng ca th trng v TGH tng lai. C th chia thnh 2 nhm nhn t : nhm nhn t thng mi (lm pht, hng ro ngoi thng, thu nhp), v nhm nhn t ti chnh (li sut, cc quy nh v ngoi hi). Lm pht v li sut l 2 nhn t c cc thnh vin FOREX quan tm nhiu nht hin nay. S tng tc gia cc yu t c gii quyt bng phng php: chn yu t c tc ng mnh nht. S phc tp trong bc tranh xc nh TGH l bn thn cc nhn t nh lm pht, li sut cng rt kh xc nh trong thc tin.
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Bi tp
1.
2. 3. 4. 5.
T thng tin 08/03/07: S(VND/USD) = 16.500; 08/03/08: S(VND/USD) = 15.500, chng ta bit c iu g? Xem xt TGH (VND/USD) trong trng hp Lm pht ti VN tng so vi ti M. Xem xt TGH (VND/USD) trong trng hp Li sut ti VN tng so vi ti M. Xem xt TGH (VND/USD) trong trng hp Thu nhp ti VN tng so vi ti M. Xem xt TGH (VND/USD) trong trng hp VN ni lng kim sot NK hng ha M.
Bi tp
6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
Xem xt TGH (VND/USD) trong trng hp LS thc t ti Vit Nam tng so vi ti M. Ti sao mt bi bo d on v VND tng gi tng lai khin VND tng gi trong hm nay. Thm ht Cn cn thng mi tc ng n TGH nh th no? Thm ht Ngn sch tc ng n TGH nh th no? Gii thch ti sao c nhng khi thu nhp quc dn tng khin ng ni t gim gi nhng cng c trng hp, ng ni t li tng gi.
Bi tp
11.
12. 13.
Khi mt s nn kinh t Chu b suy gim tng trng (ko theo s suy gim lm pht v li sut), ng tin ca cc nc so vi USD b nh hng th no? VD:Nht (90s) Nhng ng tin yu dai dng ca 1 s nc M Latinh c th c n nh nh th no? Cc cuc khng hong ti chnh gn y u din ra vi mt s mt gi nhanh chng ca ng ni t (so vi USD). Ti sao? Chng c im chung no?
12
Bi tp
C mt xu hng hin nay l khong Bid/Ask ca cp (VND/USD) dng nh rng ra. Bn bnh lun th no v xu hng ny? 15. Sau khi FED ct gim li sut, Ngn hng Smart d on S(USD/CAD) t 0.95 (12/3/08) s gim xung 0.94 (18/3/08). Vi cc thng s th trng: - RLUSD = 5.8%/nm ; RBUSD = 6.0%/nm - RLCAD = 9.0%/nm ; RBCAD = 9.2%/nm Liu NH Smart c tin hnh u c khng?
14.
Nh nc v T gi hi oi
Cc h thng T gi hi oi ca cc Nh nc khc nhau? S can thip ca Nh nc i vi T gi hi oi T gi hi oi = chnh sch tc ng vo cc iu kin kinh t
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Cc H thng T gi hi oi
Chnh sch t gi hi oi C ch t gi hi oi Ch /Th ch t gi hi oi H thng t gi hi oi - H thng TGH c nh
- H thng TGH th ni - H thng TGH hn hp
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13
H thng TGH c nh
- TG const hoc dao ng trong phm vi rt hp. - Khi TG dao ng qu phm vi cho php, Nh nc s can thip. - Lch s ghi nhn h thng TGH c nh tng tn ti.
+ Bretton Woods (1947 - 1971): Mi ng tin quc gia thnh vin c nh gi bng vng; 1 USD = 1/35 ounce vng; bin dao ng: 1%. + Hip nh Smithsonian (12/1971 - 03/1973): Bin dao ng m rng: 2,25%
H thng TGH c nh
Tm hiu v tha thun B.W: Birth of a monetary System ca Armand Van Dormael (1978) ti link http://www.imfsite.org/origins/confer.html hoc What has Government done to our money ca Murray N.Rothbard ti link http://www.mises.org/money.asp (c bit cun sch ny cn cung cp nhng thng tin hu ch v s pht trin tin trong lch s nhn loi)
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H thng TGH c nh
- Nhng l l ng h (Pros):
+ D d on t gi => gim chi ph chng ri ro, qun l t gi d dng hn. + V d: Trong thi k B.W, General Motors Corporation nhp khu thp t Chu u sn xut t. GM lun xc nh sn c lng USD cn phi tr cho lng nhp khu. iu khin GM khng phi tham gia ??? (TL: Bo him t gi) + Vit Nam trc nm 1997: thc hin ch t gi c nh (n nh mc TGH danh ngha VN/USD) => ??? (TL: n nh c LF, y mnh thu ht FDI, NHNGTrn Th Ln bt li trong tng lai)42 tim n ThS
Email: lantranthe@yhaoo.com
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H thng TGH c nh
- Nhng l l phn i (Cons)
+ Ph thuc vo ch ch quan ca Nh nc. V d: Vit Nam trc nm 1997, VN c xu hng b nh gi cao hn so vi thc t => khuyn khch vay mn ngoi t u t, tng NK trn lan, gim XK + D tn thng bi cc iu kin kinh t khng tt ca nc i tc (nhp khu lm pht, tht nghip ) V d: M, thp nin 60, b ph phn do xut khu lm pht, tht nghip vo mt s nc Chu u.
H thng TGH c nh
- V d v nhp khu lm pht Chu u. + Di ch B.W, TG cc ng tin thnh vin ( C.u)
c c nh vi USD. Khi LF M tng => PUS tng => cc DN v ngi dn M chuyn sang tiu dng hng ha n t C.u nh c (v TG c nh nn PG r hn tng i so vi PUS) => cu v hng ha c vt qu cung => p lc tng gi => LF c tng. + Mt khc, PG r hn tng i so vi PUS=> XK ca c tng => d tr quc t tng v dng vn USD vo nhiu hn => tng trng cung tin t => Sc p lm pht gia tng c.
H thng TGH th ni t do
- TG c xc nh theo cc iu kin cung & cu ca th trng. (VD: cu v USD v cung USD cho trao i) => Nh nc ko can thip. - TGH th ni tng tn ti nh th no? + Trong lch s pht trin h thng ti chnh quc t, ch TGH th ni khng c nhiu quc gia s dng. mt s quc gia n ch xut hin sau thi k khng hong m Nh nc buc phi th ni ng tin nh Thi Lan => Thc kh khi khng can thip vo TGH.
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- Nhng l l ng h (Pros):
+ D cch ly cc cn bnh kinh t t nc khc. V d (gi thit): M v Anh - Anh c bo v khi s gia tng lm pht, tht nghip t M. + Gim p lc cho NHTW, to iu kin thun li cho NHTW thc thi cc chnh sch mi. V d: Trc khi khng hong, Thi Lan chu p lc ln v d tr. + Nng cao hiu qu ca th trng ti chnh V d: Hn Quc u thp nin 90, tng tc t do ha ti khon vn => kim sot ngoi hi gim => dng vn vo tng mnh => Li sut gim gn bng LS th gii.
- Nhng l l phn i (Cons)
+ Lm trm trng thm tnh hnh ti t ca quc gia i tc v v di hn nh hng li ch ca mnh. V d: LF M gia tng => USD gim gi so vi GBP => PNK nguyn liu tng => PUS thnh phm tng => Lm pht M tip tc tng. Thm na, gi hng ha nc ngoi c xu hng tng khin cc nh sn xut M c ng c tng gi hng ha trong nc. + D bin ng ln => chi ph qun l TG cao. V d: 2/7/1997, sau khi th ni, ng Bath mt gi gn 50%; n 7/1/1998, Bath mt gi 122%. 22/12/1994, NHTW Mexico th ni, ng peso gim gi 15%; 4 thng sau, peso gim gi hn 50%.
H thng TGH hn hp
- H thng TG ngy nay u gia h thng TG c nh v h thng th ni t do. - Ging h thng TG th ni t do - Ging h thng TG c nh - Phn loi (theo cc tuyn b v xc nh TG): th ni c iu tit VS c nh c iu tit - Phn loi ca IMF (theo mc linh hot v s tn ti ca cc cam kt chnh thc hoc khng chnh thc v s hnh thnh t gi)
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H thng TGH hn hp
- Phn loi ca IMF (ngoi th ni hon ton):
+ + + + + + + Ch t gi khng c tin php nh ring bit. Ch t gi chun tin t (currency board) Ch t gi neo c nh truyn thng Ch t gi neo vi di bng Ch t gi iu chnh dn tng nc (crawling peg) Ch t gi con rn trong ng hm (crawling band) Th ni c qun l (khng xc nh trc t gi)
- Ba vn xc nh mt ch TG : ngang gi trung tm (neo); rng ca di bng (bng); s linh hot ca TG v di bng (trn)
Nghin cu trng hp: Mexican Peso
- Cuc khng hong minh chng iu g? - iu g cn phi tranh lun. - Xem thm ti liu:
+http://www.brook.edu/views/papers/lustig/114.htm +http://www.cfr.org/publication/132/lessons_of_the_mexica n_peso_crisis.html +http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/J_whi811.pdf
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S can thip ca Nh nc L do can thip

- iu ha s bin ng ca TGH . - Thit lp nhng gii hn ngm cho TGH - Phn ng li cc c sc tm thi - V d: Tin tc v gi du tng khin k vng v Yn gim gi => cc nh u c c th tn cng vo ng Yn => NHTW Nht Bn phi can thip nhm loi b p lc gim gi Yn bi s tn cng ca cc nh u c.
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S can thip ca Nh nc
Can thip trc tip
- Mua bn ni v ngoi t trn FOREX. - tng gi ni t => bn ngoi t ra FX (MsVN) - gim gi ni t => mua ngoi t t FX (MsVN) - S mua vo hay bn ra ngoi t u lm thay i d tr ngoi t. D tr tng hay gim qu mc u c nhng tc ng tiu cc i vi nn kinh t. V d: b nh gi cao so vi $ (Anh, 1967); Mark b nh gi thp so vi $ (c, 1971). - Can thip hu hiu VS Can thip v hiu
S can thip ca Nh nc
Can thip hu hiu (non-sterilized)
- Khng km theo cc bin php iu chnh nhng thay i trong cung tin ni a
Can thip v hiu (trung ha ha; sterilized)

- Km theo s iu chnh m bo cung tin ni a khng i.
ngha ca Can thip hu hiu v v hiu:

- S thay i ca cung tin ni a lin quan n lm pht, li sut, tng trng kinh t V vy, phi xem xt n nhng kh nng thay i cc iu kin kinh t trc khi la chn can thip hu hiu hay v hiu.
S can thip ca Nh nc
Can thip gin tip
- Thay i cc yu t nh hng n TGH - Thng thng tp trung vo nhn t li sut v kim sot ca chnh ph. - Li sut: tng gi ni t, Nh nc c th can thip lm tng li sut v ngc li. - Cc quy nh v ngoi hi: tng gi ni t, Nh nc c th ni lng cc gii hn dng vn ra vo quc gia v ngc li. - Tuy nhin, phi thn trng khi s dng cc chnh sch trn v c nhng tc dng ngc chiu.
18
T gi - Mt cng c chnh sch

Tc dng ca mt ng tin yu
- Tng kh nng cnh tranh ca doanh nghip trong nc; h tr xut khu, khuyn khch thu ht u t nc ngoi - C th dn n mt t l lm pht cao.
Tc dng ca mt ng tin mnh

- Tng kh nng chng lm pht; khuyn khch nhp khu, v u t ra bn ngoi - C th dn n mt t l tht nghip cao.
Ch :
- ng tin mnh hay yu cng ch l mt trong s cc nhn t tc ng n s pht trin ca mt nn kinh t.
- Mi quan h gia cc bin s l phc tp hn rt nhiu, v d nh: quan h gia lm pht v TGH
Bi tp
1. Trong nhng nm gn y, M hay phn nn v vic ng Yuan ca TQ c nh gi qu thp v iu ny khin cho M b thm ht thng mi so vi TQ. Bn hy cho bit kin v vn ny? (Th t mnh vo v tr ca B TM M, DN M, B TM TQ ) 2. Liu mt quc gia c th thc hin ch c nh TGH mi mi khng? 3. Ch t gi th ni hon ton c phi l mt la chn tt trong bi cnh ton cu ha kinh t hin nay khng? 4. Hng Kng thc hin ch t gi chun tin t (USD). Hy bnh lun v kh nng chng lm pht cng nh chng khng hong ti chnh 1997 ca Hng Kng.
Bi tp
5. Theo bn, mt nn kinh t b la ha mc cao c ngha l g? Hin nay, Vit Nam c b la ha? Nu c, iu tt hay khong tt cho s pht trin kinh t? 6. Nhiu chuyn gia cho rng, ch TG ca Vit nam khng phi th ni c qun l m l crawling peg. Bnh lun v nhn nh trn. 7. Bn bit rng nm 2007, Vit Nam t tc tng trng 8.46%, dng ngoi t vo hn 20 triu USD. Theo bn, duy tr TG (VND/USD), NHNN can thip vo FOREX nh th no. Liu bn c th gii thch thm v bc tranh kinh t u nm 2008? (Lm pht tng; Li sut tng; (VND/USD) gim )
19

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ThS Trn Th Ln Email: lantranthe@yhaoo.

ThS. Trn Th Ln Tr Th Khoa Kinh t quc t, COE, VNU t qu t

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bi s giao nhau gia ng cu v ng cung v USD trn FX

im E(E*,Q*) xc nh t gi hi oi v lng USD cn bng

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Ngi VN c xu hng TD nhiu H ca M hn. NK H t M DUSD

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Cung USD gim

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Cung USD dng mua VND tng D1

Cu USD dch chuyn tri

VND tng gi so vi USD

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ThS Trn Th Ln Email: lantranthe@yhaoo.com

International Finance Management @ Jeff Madura

ThS Trn Th Ln Email: lantranthe@yhaoo.com

Thu nhp tng i

Thu nhp tng i

International Finance Management @ Jeff Madura

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K vng ca th trng v TGH

K vng ca th trng v TGH

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Li sut Cc gii hn dng vn

Cung ngoi t (cho trao i)

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u t da trn vic d on s thay i ca TGH

u t da trn vic d on s thay i ca TGH

u t da trn vic d on s thay i ca TGH

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u t da trn vic d on s thay i ca TGH

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Tng kt Bnh lun

Tng kt Bnh lun

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im E(E,Q) xc nh t gi hi oi v lng USD cn bng