KINH T V MO

Giang vien TS. Phan N Thanh Thuy

Giao trnh chnh: KINH TE V MO Tac gia: TS. Phan N Thanh Thuy TS. Tran Nguyen Ngoc Anh Th
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Chng Chng Chng Chng Chng Chng Chng Chng Chng

1: NHP MN KINH T V M 2: TNH TON SN LNG QUC GIA 3: X GI TR SN LNG CN BNG 4: CHNH SCH TI KHA 5: CHNH SCH TIN T 6: KT HP CSTK V CSTT (IS-LM) 7: TNG CUNG V TNG CU 8: LM PHT V THT NGHIP 9:CHNH SCH V M TRONG KT M

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NHAP MON KINH TE V MO

I.Cac khai niem chung. 1.Kinh te hoc

La mot mon khoa hoc xa hoi nham nghien cu s la chon cua ca nhan va xa hoi trong viec s dung nhng nguon tai nguyen co gii han e ap ng nhu cau ngay cang tang cua con ngi.
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- khoa hoc xa hoi

+ Khong co mc chnh xac tuyet oi V nhng con so, ham so s dung trong kinh te hoc eu c c lng trung bnh t thc te + Chu quan: Cung hien tng kinh te neu ng tren quan iem khac nhau se cho ra nhng ket luan khac nhau thng gay mau thuan gia
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tai nguyen co gii han

s la chon?

S dung TN hieu qua nhu cau ngay cang nhat

tang
e ap ng nhu cau ngay cang tang
Kinh te phai tang trng: % tang GDP, GNP Cong bang trong phan phoi thu nhap: Thue, tr cap

Phat trien
1. Tang trng va phai at GDP/ngi cao NN (23) CNDV 2. CNH, HH GTSL %(10%) GTSL % (90%) 20% 80% - San lng % (94%) So % (6%) L 40% 60% L - Lao ong kien lao ong t nhat phai c : ieu gii hoa - MMTB 3. (HDI: Human Development Index): GD, YT. at nhng ch tieu phat trien tr ngi con
cap xa hoi, tuoi tho
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2.Kinh te v mo
L mn khoa hc nghin cu nn kinh t bng cch xem nn kinh t l mt tng th thng nht

1. Gia tr tong san lng 2. Ty le lam phat le that 3. Ty nghiep 4. Lai suat 5. Can can ngan sach can ngoai 6. Can thng can thanh 7. Can

1. Gia tr tong san lng

GDP, GNP

2.Ty le lam phat

Ty le tang mc gia chung cua hang hoa va dch vu tieu dung

CPI (consumer Price Index) Ch so gia tieu dung

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3. Ty le that nghiep

Ty le that nghiep la ty le so ngi that nghiep so vi lc lng lao ong

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4. Lai suat
Lai suat cua cac loai von tien te trong nen kinh te

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5. Can can ngan sach

CCNS = Thu NS-Chi
NS TH,boi chi ( 5%GDP) < 0: NS Chi :chi lang ph, co phan hoa
Thu

Vay Dan chung: Phat hanh trai phieu, cong trai NHTW

Nc ngoai: ODA, vay th trng (Official Development Assistance)

Thue

> 0: TD, boi thu NS = 0: Can bang NS

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6. Can can ngoai thng

Can can mau dch Can can thng mai Can can xuat nhap khau Gia tr xuat khau rong

NX = X M (Net export) (Export) (Import)

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7. Can can thanh toan

(Balance of Payments: BOP)

La bang liet ke ghi lai cac dong giao dch bang tien cua mot quoc gia vi cac nc khac Dong tien vao: + Dong tien ra : 15

BOP = Dong tien vao Dong tien ra

< 0: CCTT tham hut D tr ngoai te Vay n Kha nang oi pho > 0: CCTT thang d
NHTW mua ng.te ban D tr ng.te Lam phat
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3.ng gii han kha nang san xuat

(Production Possibility Frontier: PPF)

ng PPF bieu hien tren o th cac cach ma xa hoi co the la chon khi s dung hp ly cac nguon lc.
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Th d:
Nn kinh t co 5 lao ng c phan phoi vao 2 nganh san xuat may moc thiet b va hang tieu dung. Mc san lng at c khi moi nguon lc c s dung hp ly nh sau:
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Cac c cach ch I II III IV V

San xuat may moc moc Lao ong San lng ong lng 5 15 4 3 2 1 14 12 9 5

San xuat hang tieu dung tieu dung Lao ong San lng ong lng 0 0 1 2 3 4 6 11 15 18
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May moc

20 I

15
14

II

B
III

12 IV 09

PPF
VI
HTD

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15

18

20

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II. SAN LNG TIEM NANG

(Yp hay Qp) 1.Khai niem: La mc san lng toi u ma nen kinh te co the at c khi s dung hp ly cac nguon lc ma khong lam lam phat tang cao. -Khong phai la san lng toi a -Van con that nghiep (Natural unemployment rate) -Co xu hng tang theo thi gian

Un:3-5%LLL

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2.Cach tnh san lng tiem nang

Tap hp GDP thc theo thi gian, sau o dung phng phap hoi quy tuyen tnh e tnh mc trung bnh, t o hnh thanh ng GDP thc theo xu hng, can c vao o, xac nh san lng tiem nang
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GDP thc (ty ong) GDP thc theo xu hng

x x

Nam 1

th biu hin GDP thc qua cac nm

Nam
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San lng tiem nang khong phu thuoc vao gia ban san pham ma phu thuoc vao cac nguon lc cua nen kinh te
P

3. o th cua Yp theo mc gia:

Yp

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III. nh luat Okun

1. Nu sn lng thc t thp hn sn lng tim nng 2% th t l tht nghip thc t s cao hn t l tht nghip chun 1%

UT U n

Yp YT YP

x50%

t l tng ca sn lng tim nng l 2,5% th t l tht nghip thc t s gim 1%

2. Nu t l tng ca san lng thc t ln hn

UT (t ) UT (t 1) 0,4( y p)

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YT < Yp: 2% UT > Un: 1%

x% x/2%
-2%

UT > Un: x/2%

=> UT = Un + x/2%

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y la % tang cua san lng thc te nam t so vi nam t-1

p la % tang cua san lng tiem nang nam t so vi nam t-1

u la % tang cua that nghiep thc nam t so vi nam t-1

UT(t-1):10% UT(t): 9% y-p 2,5% (y-p) cho trc u -1% ? u=-1%

=>

u = UT(t) UT(t-1)

=> UT(t) = UT(t-1) + u

u =-0,4(y-p)

=> UT(t) = UT(t-1) 0,4(y-p)

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Bai 7 trang 23

Ty le that nghiep nam 2009 la 20%, toc o tang cua san lng tiem nang trong nam 2010 la 5%. Muon en nam 2010, ty le that nghiep ch con 16%, san lng thc te phai tang bao nhieu %?
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Bai 8 trang 23
Biet Un = 4%, Yp = 10.000 ty, YT = 9.500 ty (nam 2010) a/ Ty le that nghiep 2010 ? b/ Muon ty le that nghiep 2011 la 5%, san lng thc te phai tang bao nhieu %? Biet Yp (11) la 11.000 ty
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Bai 9 trang 24
San lng tiem nang la 100 ty, ty le that nghiep t nhien la 5%, san lng thc te ang thap hn san lng tiem nang la 12%. a/ Xac nh san lng thc te? b/ Ty le that nghiep thc te?
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V.TONG CUNG TONG CAU 1. Tong cung (AS: Aggregate Supply) La gia tr cua toan bo lng hang hoa va dch vu ma cac doanh nghiep trong nc muon cung ng cho nen kinh te tai moi mc gia.
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a.Tong cung ngan han S.AS) Tong cung ngan han phan anh quan he gia tong cung va mc gia trong ieu kien gia cac yeu to au vao cha thay oi.
S.AS = f(P) Hm ng bin
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Hnh 1.4: o th ng cung ngan han

P S.AS

P3

P2 P1

A Y1

Yp

Y3

Y
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b. Tong cung dai han

Tong cung dai han phan anh quan he gia tong cung va mc gia trong ieu kien gia cac yeu to au vao thay oi cung ty le vi mc gia au ra cua san pham.
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Hnh 1.5: o th ng tong cung dai han

P L.AS

Yp

Y
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c. Nhng yeu to lam thay oi cung: Khi bien so (gia) thay oi lam tong cung thay oi theo ta goi ay la hien tng trt cung. Neu nhng nhan to ngoai bien so tac ong se gay ra hien tng dch chuyen ng cung.

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2. Tong cau (AD: Aggregate demand) La gia tr cua toan bo lng hang hoa va dch vu noi a ma ho gia nh, doanh nghiep, chnh phu, ngi nc ngoai muon mua tai moi mc gia.
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AD = f (P)
Ham nghch bin

AD = C + I + G + X - M
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Hnh 1.8: o th tong cau theo mc gia

P

AD Y
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V. CAC MUC TIEU KINH TE

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1. Muc tieu on nh kinh te trong ngan han P S.AS

P3

AD3

P2 P1

A Y1

B
AD2 AD1

Yp

Y3

Y
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Chnh ph dung cac chnh sach ngan han tac ong vao tng cu: - Chnh sach tai khoa.
- Chnh sach tien te - Chnh sach thu nhap.

- Chnh sach ngoai thng

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A: AD1 thap LP thap Yt thap (< Yp) TN cao (>Un)

1. Muc tieu on nh kinh te trong ngan han P S.AS

CB khiem dung KT cha toan dung KT suy thoai
P4 P3

LP cao Yt cao(>Yp) TN thap

Tang trng non C Tren mc toan d KT lam phat AD3

A Y1

P2 B: P1 LP thap Yt = Yp KT toan TN =Un dung KT on nh

B
AD2 AD1

Yp

Y3

Y
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2. Muc tieu tang trng kinh te trong dai han

Chnh ph dng cc chnh sch tc ng vo tng cung lm ng cung dch chuyn sang phi (gim thu, gim gi u vo, ci cch hnh chnh c hiu qu, to mi iu kin thun li pht trin sn xut kinh doanh, gia tng ngun lc quc gia)

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