Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Riding Perfect Storm Slides 02-08-2012 CI Totten ARI-NUS
Riding Perfect Storm Slides 02-08-2012 CI Totten ARI-NUS
Riding Perfect Storm Slides 02-08-2012 CI Totten ARI-NUS
SOURCE
Michael P. Totten, Senior Advisor, CI Singapore Presentation at Asia Research Institute, NUS February 09, 2012
Asia Will Account for 70% of Worlds Added Capital Stock between 2030-2050
Asias march to prosperity will be led by 7 economies, 2 already developed and 6 fast growing middle income converging economies. Between 2010 and 2050, these 7 economies would account for nearly 90% of total GDP growth in Asia more than half of global GDP growth.
The worlds current youth cohort 1.2 billion young people ages 15 to 25 is the largest in human history
This youth bulge wraps itself around the center of the globe, with nearly 90 % of todays young people growing up in developing countries where barriers to opportunity remain high.
GT
Planetary Boundaries TODAY Exceeding the Safe Operating Space for Humanity
Rockstrm, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, . Persson, F. S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T. M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C. A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Srlin, P. K. Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R. W. Corell, V. J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley. 2009. Planetary boundaries:exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/
Planetary Boundaries 2150 Exceeding the Safe Operating Space for Humanity CLIMATE
CHANGE
Rockstrm, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, . Persson, F. S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T. M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C. A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Srlin, P. K. Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R. W. Corell, V. J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley. 2009. Planetary boundaries:exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/
Species extinction
Recommendations:
Brazil 20 million
10% 90%
99 million
21%
89%
Ecosystem services
Source: Gundimeda and Sukhdev, D1 TEEB 09.02.2012
26
>50%
The proportion of company earnings that could be at risk from environmental costs in an equity portfolio weighted according to the MSCI All Country World Index.
Universal Ownership: Why environmental externalities matter to institutional investors, Trucost Plc, commissioned by UN-backed Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) and UNEP Finance Initiative, 2011, www.trucost.com
Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.
CLOSING THE LOOP Reducing Use of Virgin Resources, Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients, Green Chemistry, Biomimicry
E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/
55 million years since oceans as acidic business-as-usual emissions growth threaten collapse of marine life food web
Oceans Acidifying
Carl Folke, A sa Jansson, Johan Rockstrom, Per Olsson, Stephen R. Carpenter, F. Stuart Chapin III, Anne-Sophie Crepin, Gretchen Daily, Kjell Danell, Jonas Ebbesson, Thomas Elmqvist, Victor Galaz, Fredrik Moberg, Mans Nilsson, Henrik O sterblom, Elinor Ostrom, A sa Persson, Garry Peterson, Stephen Polasky, Will Steffen, Brian Walker, Frances Westley, Reconnecting to the Biosphere, AMBIO (2011) 40:719738, DOI 10.1007/s13280-011-0184-y, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Whats Left?
1950 www.armsflow.org/
2005
MMN, Muller, Mendelsohn and Nordhaus, Environmental Accounting for Pollution in the USA, American EconomicsReview, 2011; Epstein et al, New York Academy of Sciences, 2010
LINFEN, CHINA
the most polluted city on earth. Where, if one puts laundry out to dry, it will turn black before finishing drying. Spending one day in Linfen is equivalent to smoking 3 packs of cigarettes
Climate Catastrophes
TODAY: 387PPM
Top 15 nation populations exposed to sea level rise today & 2070
Ranked in terms of POPULATION exposed to coastal flooding in the 2070s (including both climate change and socioeconomic change) and showing present-day exposure
Ranked in terms of ASSETS exposed to coastal flooding in the 2070s (including both climate change and socioeconomic change) and showing present-day exposure
Danger
>0%
2009 MIT Study: 95% chance that Businessas-usual temperature increase will exceed 3.5C in 2095; and a 50% chance temperature will exceed 5C!
Source: Timothy M. Lenton , Hermann Held , Elmar Kriegler , Jim W. Hall , Wolfgang Lucht, Stefan Rahmstorf and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, 2007. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, www.pnas.org/.
"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction
Martin Weitzman
A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost of a clean environment."
MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.
Frank Ackerman & Elizabeth Stanton, Climate Risks and Carbon Prices: Revising the Social Cost of Carbon, 2011, Stockholm Environment Institute & Tufts Univ., www.e3network.org
Target CO2:
James Hansen, Human-Made Climate Change: A Moral, Political and Legal Issue, Blue Planet Prize Lecture, October 2010, www.columbia.edu/~jeh1
>$/GDP/cap
Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on Americas Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.
SwitchAsia, Mainstreaming Sustainable Consumption in Asia, Consumer Book No. 3, citing WWF 2006,
Can WE Avert Multiple Catastrophes, Avoid Irreversible Consequences, and Make the Shift to Healthy, Sustainable Economies?
Ken Caldeira
GENETICS
AUTOROBOTICS
INFORMATICS
NANOTECH
Your grandchildrens lives are important Using the right Discount Rate
Climate Change is a long-term problem over many centuries, with a non-zero probability of catastrophic , irreversible events and credible worst cases involving the end of much of human and other life on the planet.
Discount rates based on market interest rates ,or rate of return on financial investments, are more appropriate for shorter term investments with an average pattern of market risks.
Investments in climate protection, however, bear a closer resemblance to insurance, because it is a risk-reducing investment.
Frank Ackerman, Can We Afford the Future?
In the LONG term, the most important effect is the pace of innovation in energy technologies, another subject on which conventional economics has little to offer.
Frank Ackerman, Can We Afford the Future?
While non-linear complex adaptive systems pervade existence, humans have a strong propensity to think and act as if life is linear, uncertainty is controllable, the future free of surprises, and planning is predictable and compartmentalized into silos. Normal distributions are assumed, fat-tail futures are ignored.
Natural system
Technical system
Social system
Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too differently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/
http://www.envirobase.info/
Collective Intelligence
CULTURAL CAPITAL BIOPHYSICAL CAPITAL
SOURCE
Summary Points
The Role of Finance Related to Climate Security and Energy Security
Low Hanging Fruit that keeps growing back now offer a multi-trillion dollar global pool of savings for companies and institutions, with high ROIs, and myriad ancillary values and co-benefits beyond climate/energy security Electric, Gas & Water Utilities incented to deliver leastcost, least-risk utility services to the point of use could be source of tens of trillions of dollars of finance Sourcing standards-based, multiple-benefits conservation carbon offsets (CCB) is a key part of a cost & riskminimizing portfolio for addressing multiple securities (climate, energy, economic, ecosystem services, conflicts)
Triple S Portfolio
Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/
sustainable consumption
IBM ODriscoll
$1.2 billion savings over 5 years on energy, water & chemical costs. 670% ROI
So the financial incentive is there, but as CEO Pasquale Pistorio stressed, its not enough.
If the chief executive is not totally committed, it wont succeed, Pasquale Pistorio, CEO, STMicro, 1987-2005
Source: STMicroelectronics, Sustainability Report 2010, Our culture of Sustainable Excellence in Practice, www.st.com/internet/com/CORPORATE_RESOURCES/FINANCIAL/FINANCIAL_REPORT/ST_2010_sustainability_report.pdf
Dow slashed energy intensity by ~40% between 1990-2005. $9.4 billion savings between 1994-2010 940% ROI
Breakdown by abatement type 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry/agriculture) 6 Gt energy efficiency 4 Gt low-carbon energy supply
Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the
incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is 55-80 billion per year between 20102020 for developing countries and 4050 billion for developed countries,
or about half the 215 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.
Walmarts World
70% Walmart Imports from China 2008 25% from 14 other nations ( )
Water Packaging
Marine
Factories
Wal-Mart can help restore balance to climate systems, reduce greenhouse gases, save money for our customers, and reduce dependence on oil.
We are committed to aggressively investing $500 million annually in technologies and innovation to do the following:
Reducing GHG at our existing store, club and Distribution Center base around the world by 20 percent w/in 7 years.
Designing and opening prototype stores 25-30 % more efficient and 30% fewer GHG emissions within the next 4 years. Increasing fleet efficiency 25% in 3 years, and doubling efficiency in the next 10 years.
Sharing all learning in technology with the world, including our competitors (the more people who can utilize this type of technology the larger the market and more we can save our customers)
You cant just keep doing what works one time. Everything around you is changing. To succeed, stay out in front of change. Sam Walton, founder
These commitments are a first step. To address climate change we need to cut emissions worldwide. We know that these commitments wont even maintain our fast growing companys overall emissions at current levels.
2010 Sustainability report 2011 Sustainability report
In 2006, Walmart set a goal of reducing energy consumption & CO2 emissions in the USA by selling 100 million compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) by the end of 2007. Walmart exceeded that goal by selling 137 million.
By the end of 2010, Walmart had sold more than 460 million CFLs.
lightemitting diodes
LED
Augmenting natural daylighting with ultra-efficient LEDs offer capital and operating savings, as well as dramatic reductions in Mercury emissions
Aggressively pursuing regulatory and policy changes that will create incentives for utilities to invest in energy efficiency and low or no GHG sources of electricity, and to reduce barriers to integrating these sources into the power grid.
CCS
US current average
nuclear
coal
CC ind cogen
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
1/kWh
93 kg
47
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
US$26.3 trillion
global cumulative electric utility infrastructure investment needed between 2007 and 2030.
Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services
USA minus CA & NY 165 GW Coal Power Plants
New York
[EPPs]
California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions. California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).
Now use 1/2 global power 30-50% efficiency savings achievable w/ high ROI
Demand Facts
Industrial electric motor systems consume 40% of electricity worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in China over 7 trillion kWh per year. Retrofit savings of 30%, New savings of 50% -- @ 1 /kWh.
Efficiency Outcomes
2 trillion kWh per year savings equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be built through 2030 worldwide. $240 billion savings per decade. $200 to $400 billion benefits per decade in avoided emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx.
SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive market transformation strategy to promote efficient industrial electric motor systems worldwide
More Retail Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs Less Need for Coal Mines & Power Plants
Less Coal Power Plants
Walmart is on the path to tripling its truck fleet efficiency. Over the past 2 years Walmart replaced ~2/3rd of their fleet with more efficient tractors.
Avoiding ~40,000 t/CO2 -- equivalent to taking 7,600 U.S. cars off the road.
Source; Building the Next Generation WalmartResponsibility, 2011 Global Responsibility report
2.7 km/l 529 million liters [6.4 mpg 140 million gal]
121,000 hectares
Land required if Wal-Mart Class 8 large truck fleet Switched from Fossil Diesel to BioDiesel from Oil Palm Plantations
40,000 hectares
When the truck fleet achieves triple fuel efficiency
2004
2011
$70 $60
per barrel cost
$65
$15
biodiesel
truck efficiency
HOW ENERGY EFFICIENT ARE YOUR BUILDINGs? Typical Energy usage Commercial Building
Tropical Climate (Cooling All Year Round)
Others Equipment 4% 8% Lift/Escalator 5%
Lighting 18%
Ventilation 5%
Data is for buildings in hot and humid climate like Singapore, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, etc
EXCELLENT
GOOD
FAIR
NEEDS IMPROVEMENT
kW/ton 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 C.O.P. (7.0) (5.9) (5.0) (4.4) (3.9) (3.5) (3.2) (2.9)
AVERAGE ANNUAL CHILLER PLANT EFFICIENCY IN KW/TON (C.O.P.)
(Input energy includes chillers, condenser pumps, tower fans and chilled water pumping) Based on electrically driven centrifugal chiller plants in comfort conditioning applications with 42F (5.6C) nominal chilled water supply temperature and open cooling towers sized for 85F (29.4C) maximum entering condenser water temperature and 20% excess capacity. Local Climate adjustment for North American climates is +/- 0.05 kW/ton
Financial Benefits
Before
Cooling TonHr/Week System kWH/Week kWh/TonH Energy Savings in % Energy Savings in kWH / Year Energy Savings in $/Year @ $0.20/KWH Water usage per year (M3) Water Charge per year (New Water @ $1.0/M3) Estimated Total $ Savings per Year Annual Reduction in Carbon Emission per year (Tones)
34,682
Daily System Report August 2009 Real time monitoring with calibrated smart sensors
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
IF Cooling Load in kW per ton:
Typical: ~1.2 kW/ton or 114% more Best: ~0.56 kW/ton
Aircon equipment ~$4k/ton Cooling demand ~ 0.025 ton/m2 of aircon space Average over-sizing is 2x Wasted capital stock = 0.025 x 1m m2 x $4k = US$100
million
Avg efficiency existing aircon 1.2 kW/t Excess aircon energy (1.2 0.56), & cost: 0.025 x 1m m2 x 5000 hrs/a x $0.20/kWh = US$17 million/yr
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
Cooling Load in kW per ton?
Code: ~0.85 kW/ton or 50% more Best: ~0.56 kW/ton
Code efficiency existing aircon 0.85 kW/t Excess aircon energy (0.85 0.56), & cost: 0.0125 x 1mm2 x 5000 hrs/a x $0.20/kWh= US$12.5 million/yr
Annual global energy consumption by humans Oil Gas Coal ANNUAL Wind Hydro
SOLAR PHOTONS ACCRUED IN A MONTH EXCEED THE EARTHS FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES
Uranium
Uninteresting military target Robust experience curves Endogenous learning capacity Rebounds easily from failures Fails gracefully, not catastro Environmentally benign Ecologically sustainable
Efficiency
BIPV
PV
Wind
CSP
CHP
Nat gas
Coal CCS
Coal no CCS
Coal to liquids
Tar sand
Oil shale
nuclear
A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility afflicting most energy and power sources used in driving economic activity
Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients 1336 Watts per m2 from the Photon Bit stream
SOLAR REFLECTORS
Over 4000 Walmart stores with white roofs, and standard practice since 1990 Reflects away 80% of solar heat
100 m2
Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html
Corn ethanol
Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles
Assuming a guaranteed price of 0.516 RMB (7.6 U.S. cents) per kWh electricity to the grid over an agreed initial average period of 10 years, wind turbines could accommodate all of the demand for electricity projected for 2030, about twice current consumption.
Even electricity available at a concession price as low as 0.4 RMB per kilowatt-hour would be sufficient to displace 23% of electricity generated from coal.
Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)
Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)
Myth 1: PV use more energy to make than they produce over their lifetime
For cells in production now the energy payback is between 6 months and 5 years!
The amorphous silicon cells manufactured from one ton of sand could produce as much electricity as burning 500,000 tons of coal
In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares. Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in dual-uses. [ Also requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.]
Experts say we wouldnt have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!
Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
The Global market for solar cells, Washington Post, December 16, 2011, Sources: Photon International, Earth Policy Institute, Wiley Rein.
The price of solar panels fell steadily for 40 years. Since January 2008 German solar modules prices dropped from 3 to 1 per peak watt (Wp). During that same time production capacity grew 50% per annum. China market share rose from 8% in 2008 to over 55% by end of 2010. Module prices have dropped to US$1.21.5/Wp (crystalline).
Polished Stone
PBP (yrs)
NPV ($) BCR
1
+$15,373 1.89
1
+$11,024 1.70
Aluminum
SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in Switzerland
PBP (yrs)
Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
Reference costs of facade-cladding materials BIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials.
Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:
Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
$3 per gallon gasoline is equivalent to 36 cents per kWh twice as expensive as solar PV electricity
Source: Jonathan Weinert, Chaktan Ma, Chris Cherry, The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasons for Rapid Growth; Alan Durning, Three Trends that favor electric bikes, 12-20-10, www.grist.org/article/charging-up
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYvQmi0F9LA
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYvQmi0F9LA
The African market for off-grid lighting products is projected to achieve 40 to 50 % annual sales growth, with 5-6 million African households owning quality portable lights (primarily solar) by 2015. Lighting Africa contributed to this market acceleration: in 2010 alone, the sales of solar portable lanterns that have passed Lighting Africas quality tests grew by 70% in Africa. This resulted in more than 672,000 people on the continent with cleaner, safer, reliable lighting and improved energy access.
Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
High Quality
Multi-Benefit
$4 million to protect the Tayna and Kisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves in eastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservation area in Peru. Will prevent more than 900,000 tons of CO2 from being released into the atmosphere. Using Climate, Community & Biodiversity Carbon Standards.
14 million hectares burned each year emitting 5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year. More emissions than world transport system of cars, trucks, trains, planes, ships
GHG levels
5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year in mitigation services available in poor nations, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars annually ; and saving better-off nations billions of dollars.
GHG levels
U.S. fossil Electricity CO2 mitigation cost annually (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
$50 $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $- 0 CCS REDD
Tropical Deforestation 2007 13 million hectares burned 7 billion tons CO2 emissions
SOURCE
Vehicle-to-Grid
hwww.techonomy.com/#te10
www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_EKZvb7gc8
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTKGP0O5f5Y&feature=related
Buildings
Utilities
*Renewable costs exclude tax credits & similar subsidies; nonrenewable costs implicitly include many complex subsidies.
Historic & projected CO2 emissions from the U.S. electricity sector, 1990-2050
Industry
Transport
Lightweight autos neednt cost more. The MY 2010 U.S. new-car fleet shows little or no correlation between lighter weight and higher prices.
Traffic fatalities, vehicle weight changes, and vehicle size based on 1999 U.S. fleet on the road
Crash-safety risk with lightweight materials in automotive applications is only perceived, not supported by evidence. Lighter autos are actually safer than heavier ones the same size.
Automotive manufacturing costs can be cut by 80% with carbon fiber-based autos vs. steelbased ones due to greatly reduced tooling and simpler assembly and joining. However, such cost savings are currently overshadowed with carbon fiber material prices ~$16/lb.
U.S. motor gasoline consumption with & without policy change and accelerated retooling, 2010-2050
Cumulative volume-based learning curves for battery packs and fuel cell systems
U.S. installed wind & solar power capacities and projections, 1990-2050
Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a Sustainable Future by 2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009
Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a Sustainable Future by 2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009
Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients The Power in the Photon Bit stream
Earth receives more solar energy every 90 minutes than humanity consumes all year
BIPV (mccabe)
FINANCING
100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND, WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS Achievable this Century
Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.
Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energy provided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream based on real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data with administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.
Smart Grid design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of urban solar panel locations based on multi-criteria targets.
Self-similar set, or fractal, a mathematically generated pattern that can be reproducible at any magnification or reduction.
When two nanowires lay crisscrossed light will generate plasmon waves at the place where the two nanowires meet, creating a hot spot. The beauty is that the hot spots exist only when the nanowires touch, not after they have fused. The welding stops itself. It's self-limiting. This ability to heat with precision greatly increases the control, speed and energy efficiency of nanoscale welding.
Erik C. Garnett, Wenshan Cai, Judy J. Cha, Fakhruddin Mahmood, Stephen T. Connor, M. Greyson Christoforo, Yi Cui, Michael D. McGehee & Mark L. Brongersma, Self-limited plasmonic welding of silver nanowire junctions, Nature Materials, February 05, 2012
Using spherical nanoshell structures achieved absorption comparable to micron-thick layers with 50-nmthick shells, reducing the film deposition time necessary to achieve strong absorption from hours to minutes.
Yan Yao, Jie Yao, Vijay Kris Narasimhan, Zhichao Ruan, Chong Xie, Shanhui Fan & Yi Cui, Broadband light management using low-Q whispering gallery modes in spherical nanoshells, Nature Communications, 3, doi:10.1038/ncomms1664, Feb 7, 2012
Quantum dot solar cells use quantum dots as the photovoltaic material, as opposed to bulk materials such as silicon, copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) or Cadmium Telluride (CdTe). Quantum dots have bandgaps that are tunable across a wide range of energy levels by changing the quantum dot size, in contrast to bulk materials where the bandgap is fixed by the choice of material composition. This property makes quantum dots attractive for multi-junction solar cells, where a variety of different energy levels are used to extract more power from the solar spectrum.
Quantum dots are nanoscale semiconductors that capture light and convert it into an energy source. The dots can be sprayed on to flexible surfaces, including plastics. Enables production of solar cells less expensive and more durable than the more widely-known silicon-based version.
Titania within the solar cell is imprinted into a honeycomb pattern by the silicon nanodomes like a waffle imprinted by the iron. A thin layer of batter is spread on a transparent, electrically conductive base. This batter is mostly titania, a semi-porous metal that is also transparent to light. Next, they use their nano waffle iron to imprint the dimples into the batter. Then layer on some butter a light-sensitive dye which oozes into the dimples and pores of the waffle. Lastly, some syrup is added a layer of silver, which hardens almost immediately. When all those nanodimples fill up, the result is a pattern of nanodomes on the light-ward side of the silver. The silver acts as a mirror, scattering unabsorbed light back into the dye for another shot at collection, plus, the light interacts with the silver nanodomes to produce plasmonic effects.
Yan Yao, Jie Yao, Vijay Kris Narasimhan, Zhichao Ruan, Chong Xie, Shanhui Fan & Yi Cui, Broadband light management using low-Q whispering gallery modes in spherical nanoshells, Nature Communications, 3, doi:10.1038/ncomms1664, Feb 7, 2012
Graphene
Graphene is an allotrope of carbon, whose structure is one-atom-thick planar sheets of sp2bonded carbon atoms that are densely packed in an atom-scale honeycomb crystal lattice.
Key features of the solar material include its unique electric field distribution that achieves efficient charge transport; the synthesis of nanocones using inexpensive proprietary methods; and the minimization of defects and voids in semiconductors. Because of efficient charge transport, the new solar cell can tolerate defective materials and reduce cost in fabricating next-generation solar cells.
Solar Ivy
Assuming a guaranteed price of 0.516 RMB (7.6 U.S. cents) per kWh electricity to the grid over an agreed initial average period of 10 years, wind turbines could accommodate all of the demand for electricity projected for 2030, about twice current consumption.
Even electricity available at a concession price as low as 0.4 RMB per kilowatt-hour would be sufficient to displace 23% of electricity generated from coal.
Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)
Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)
Corn ethanol
Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles
Figures of Merit
Great Plains area 1,200,000 mi2
Provide 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 2MW wind turbines
Wind Farm Royalties Could Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of worlds largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems
How?
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
windpower farm govt. subsidy windpower royalty farm commodity revenues $0 $200 $50
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
Potential Synergisms
Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains: 1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market); 2) Re-introducing freeranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co-evolved together for millennia -generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef.
Source: http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/images/grassland_map_big2_jpg_image.html
Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with Combined Cycle Natural Gas
Reservoir Area (km2) Generating Capacity (MW)
DAM
km2/ MW
Tucuru
CuruUna Balbina
24330
4240
8.60
2.22
72
40
0.15
0.02
7.5
3150
250
13
6.91
0.12
58
Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the International Hydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004
50 40
30 20 10 0
$4.2
1
PV
NUCLEAR
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach adulthood stunted for good.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust physical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of dollars in lost income to the poor
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
WaterHealth International
The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
WaterHealth International
Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of operating and maintaining the equipment and facility. Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these micro-utilities, thus creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water to outlying areas.
And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
Amount of space required to transport the same number of passengers by car, bus or bicycle. Muenster Planning Office, August 2001