Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Abb-2qcy2012ru 10th Aug
Abb-2qcy2012ru 10th Aug
August 9, 2012
ABB India
Performance Highlights
(` cr) Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Reported PAT 2QCY12 1,884 106.0 5.6 51.6 2QCY11 1,713 85.5 5.0 38.7 % chg (yoy) 10.0 24.0 63 33.3 1QCY12 1,790 97.5 5.4 47.6 % chg (qoq) 5.2 8.7 18 8.4
SELL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
`789 `498
12 Months
Capital Goods 16,732 (315) 1.0 1037/541 74,233 2 17,561 5,323 ABB.BO ABB@IN
ABB India (ABB) reported better than expected numbers for 2QCY2012. It reported in-line top-line growth of 10.0% and better than expected bottom-line growth of 33.3%. The order intake during the quarter was up 14%, taking the total order book to `9,175 up 9.0% yoy, implying a sales coverage 1.2x. We expect order flow to improve over the coming quarters which will lend to improved growth trajectory. In addition, margin recovery in the long term seems likely, given that the pricing in the transmission and distribution (T&D) segment has bottomed out. However, on the back of expensive valuations we maintain our Sell recommendation on the stock. Across the board revenue growth: For 2QCY2012, the companys revenue came in at `1,884cr, up 10% yoy and 5.2% qoq. The revenue growth was robust through all the segments with low voltage products leading at 18.1%. Power systems, power products and process automation grew at ~12%. EBITDA margins for the quarter came in at 5.6%, up from 5.0% yoy and slightly above our estimate of 5.3%. Power systems saw a sharp revival in profitability with EBIT margins at 5.0%, up from -0.7% yoy. However, process automation saw declining margins for the quarter at -2.5%. Automation products also saw a steep increase in EBIT margins at 12.8%, up from 7.6% yoy. Outlook and valuation: With decent order flows expected in power products and power system segments, along with recovery in profitability due to supply chain initiatives and exit from rural electrification projects coupled with a debt free balance sheet, we expect ABBs fundamentals to steadily improve going forward. However, with the share trading at 38x PE on our CY2013E EPS estimates, we believe the share remains overvalued. Hence, we maintain our Sell recommendation on the stock with a target price of `498.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 75.0 12.9 3.3 8.8
3m 7.8 9.7
Key financials
Y/E December (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
CY2010
6,287 0.8 63 (82.2) 1.3 3.0 264.3 6.9 2.6 1.3 2.6 192.3
CY2011
7,370 17.2 185 191.8 3.8 8.7 90.5 6.6 7.5 8.3 2.2 57.9
CY2012E
8,760 18.9 263 42.7 5.5 12.4 63.5 6.1 10.1 14.6 1.9 34.3
CY2013E
10,023 14.4 440 67.0 7.5 20.7 38.0 5.4 15.2 22.0 1.6 22.0
Rahul Kaul
+91 22 3937 7600 Ext: 6817 rahul.kaul@angelbroking.com
2QCY2011 1,693 19 1,713 (79) 1239 71.9 147 8.6 248 14.5 1,627 85 5.0 7 26 7 59 3.4 20 34.3 39 2.3 1.8
% chg (yoy) 9.8 10.0 3.7 19.5 5.6 9.3 24.0 15.0 (12.5) 30.1 23.8 33.3 33.3
1QCY2012 1,773 17 1,790 (8) 1216 71.2 149 8.3 267 14.9 1,693 98 5.4 5 22 2 72 5.5 24 33.5 48 2.7 2.2
% chg (qoq) 4.8 5.2 5.7 17.7 (1.6) 5.0 8.7 41.7 3.5 7.0 4.2 8.4 8.4
CY2011 7,370 79 7,449 (85) 5,563 73.5 587 7.9 1022 18.4 7,087 362 4.9 31 80 16 268 3.6 83 31.1 185 2.5 8.7
CY2010 6,287 72 6,359 (10) 4,812 75.5 490 7.7 911 18.9 6,203 156 2.5 17 52 13 100 1.6 37 36.9 63 1.0 3.0
% chg (qoq) 17.2 17.1 15.6 19.7 12.1 14.2 131.9 76.4 54.0 167.1 124.9 191.8 192.3
1,858 25 1,884 (7) 1285 71.1 175 9.3 262 13.9 1,778 106 5.6 8 23 1 77 4.1 25 32.6 52 2.7 2.4
August 9, 2012
Across the board revenues growth: For 2QCY2012, the companys revenue was at `1,884cr (+10% yoy, +5.2% qoq). The revenue growth was robust through all the segments with low voltage products leading at 18.1%. Power systems, power products and process automation grew at ~12%.
2QCY12 569 528 329 451 151 2,027 29 29 (8) 58 7 114 28.1 26.0 16.2 22.2 7.4
2QCY11 508 469 294 421 127 1,819 (3) 22 15 32 13 78 27.9 25.8 16.2 23.2 7.0
%chg (yoy) 12.0 12.6 12.1 7.0 18.1 11.5 (914.9) 32.9 (156.1) 79.7 (41.6) 46.4
1QCY12 569 458 304 414 145 1,889 28 11 8 43 8 99 30.1 24.2 16.1 21.9 7.7
%chg (qoq) (0.0) 15.2 8.4 8.8 4.1 7.3 1.1 173.1 (200.7) 33.1 (10.5) 15.8
CY11 2,362 2,001 1,322 1,799 539.9 8,024 (1) 100 38 207 34 377 29.4 24.9 16.5 22.4 6.7
CY10 1,827 1,816 1,189 1,593 448.6 6,872 (111) 82 82 132 2 187 26.6 26.4 17.3 23.2 6.5
%chg (yoy) 29.3 10.2 11.2 13.0 20.4 16.8 (99.2) 21.9 (53.8) 56.4 1,786 102.0
August 9, 2012
26.8
30 20 10 0 (10) (20)
10.1 (0.1) (2.2) (3.8) 1.4 (4.1) (8.8) (11.5) (15.7) 1.9 5.6
(43.2)
4QCY08
1QCY09
2QCY09
3QCY09
4QCY09
1QCY10
2QCY10
3QCY10
4QCY10
1QCY11
2QCY11
3QCY11
4QCY11
1QCY12
Power Systems
2QCY12
Power Products
3QCY08
4QCY08
1QCY09
2QCY09
3QCY09
4QCY09
1QCY10
2QCY10
3QCY10
4QCY10
1QCY11
2QCY11
3QCY11
4QCY11
1QCY12
4QCY08
1QCY09
2QCY09
3QCY09
4QCY09
1QCY10
2QCY10
3QCY10
4QCY10
1QCY11
2QCY11
3QCY11
4QCY11
1QCY12
2QCY12
Process Automation
Automation products
Slight margin expansion: The EBITDA margins for the quarter came in at 5.6%, up from 5.0% yoy and slightly above our estimate of 5.3%. Power systems saw a sharp revival in profitability with EBIT margins at 5.0%, up from -0.7% yoy. However, process automation saw declining margins for the quarter at -2.5%. Automation products also saw a steep increase in EBIT margins at 12.8% up from 7.6% yoy.
Power Systems
Power Products
Process Automation
Automation products
August 9, 2012
2QCY12
(40)
Order flow stable: Order intake during the quarter increased by 13.3% yoy, which was mainly led by the power segment. Order backlog stands at `9,175cr for 2QCY2012, up 9% yoy, implying order book coverage of 1.2x.
50 40 30 20 10 0 (10)
(60)
August 9, 2012
Outlook and valuation: With decent order flows expected in power products and power system segments along with recovery in profitability due to supply chain initiatives and exit from rural electrification projects coupled with a debt free balance sheet, we expect ABBs fundamentals to steadily improve going forward. However, with the share trading at 38x PE on our CY2013E EPS estimates, we believe the share remains overvalued. Hence, we maintain our Sell recommendation on the stock with a target price of `498. Change in estimates: We largely maintain our estimates for CY2012E and CY2013E but reduce our EBITDA margin estimate to 5.5% for CY2013E leading to a decline of 27.5% and 31.8% in EBITDA and PAT respectively for the same year.
Earlier estimates
Revenues EBITDA PAT
Source: Company
Revised estimates
8,760 479 263
Var.
0.0 (27.5) (31.8)
Earlier estimates
10,023 748 440
Revised estimates
10,023 748 440
Var.
0.0 0.0 0.0
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
25x
35x
45x
55x
August 9, 2012
Feb-12
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Jun-12
Upside/
(36.9)
P/BV(x)
6.1 5.4
P/E(x)
63.5 38.0
FY2011-13E
54.3
RoCE (%)
14.6 22.0
RoE (%)
10.1 15.2
(`) (Downside) (%) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E 128 59 74 9.6 53.2 32.0 1.9 1.6 1.9 0.4 1.1 3.3 1.7 1.4 1.7 0.4 0.9 2.9 9.0 9.1 17.9 4.4 5.2 19.1 9.7 8.5 12.8 2.9 4.5 18.0
EPS CAGR FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E (9.1) (3.4) 17.6 4.6 36.8 (8.5) 28.8 11.8 13.7 15.4 20.9 20.6 23.1 10.6 17.5 17.9 22.4 20.1 22.7 18.3 11.1 10.3 26.9 18.4 18.3 17.6 14.2 14.0 27.2 17.1
August 9, 2012
August 9, 2012
Balance sheet
Y/E December (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Preference Capital Reserves & Surplus Shareholders Funds Minority Interest Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Deferred Tax Asset Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Inventories Debtors Others Current liabilities Net Current Assets Total Assets 879 206 673 116 17 0 4,749 524 318 729 2,858 320 3,132 1,617 2,424 998 232 766 58 17 5 4,926 587 354 698 2,926 361 3,348 1,579 2,424 1,462 294 1,168 84 51 22 4,960 264 367 926 3,083 321 3,751 1,209 2,535 1,662 392 1,270 50 51 22 6,010 201 358 1,011 3,960 480 4,655 1,355 2,748 1,887 503 1,384 50 51 22 6,536 194 460 1,077 4,256 549 4,954 1,581 3,088 42 0 2,381 2,424 0 0 0 2,424 42 0 2,381 2,424 0 0 0 2,424 42 0 2,492 2,535 0 0 0 2,535 42 0 2,705 2,748 0 0 0 2,748 42 0 3,046 3,088 0 0 0 3,088 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E
August 9, 2012
August 9, 2012
10
Key ratios
Y/E December Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets OB/Sales Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis (%) EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) RoIC (Pre-tax) RoIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) (X) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to Equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (0.2) (1.0) 19.9 (0.2) (7.2) 1.8 (0.1) (1.1) 6.6 (0.1) (0.5) 14.5 (0.1) (0.3) 31.7 7.6 40 171 197 62 6.7 41 168 181 61 6.0 40 149 172 48 5.6 40 147 174 44 5.6 38 150 162 46 21.2 28.7 15.7 1.3 1.8 2.6 8.3 10.5 7.5 14.6 16.6 10.1 22.0 24.3 15.2 7.7 67.2 3.5 26.6 17.9 (0.2) 14.1 0.5 63.1 3.4 1.7 1.1 (0.2) 0.8 2.8 68.9 3.7 10.1 7.0 21.1 (0.2) 9.6 4.4 67.5 3.7 16.2 10.9 0.0 (0.1) 9.7 6.3 67.5 3.8 23.8 16.1 0.0 (0.1) 14.7 16.7 16.7 19.0 2.0 113.7 3.0 3.0 5.4 2.0 114.4 8.7 8.7 12.5 3.0 119.6 12.4 12.4 17.1 2.0 129.7 20.7 20.7 26.0 4.0 145.7 47.1 41.4 6.9 0.3 2.6 30.7 6.7 1.4 264.3 145.4 6.9 0.3 2.6 192.3 6.7 1.3 90.5 63.3 6.6 0.4 2.2 57.9 6.5 1.4 63.5 46.2 6.1 0.3 1.9 34.3 6.0 1.3 38.0 30.3 5.4 0.5 1.6 22.0 5.4 1.2 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E
August 9, 2012
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
ABB India No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
August 9, 2012
12