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Nagarjuna Construction: Performance Highlights
Nagarjuna Construction: Performance Highlights
Nagarjuna Construction: Performance Highlights
August 9, 2012
Nagarjuna Construction
Performance Highlights
Quarterly Highlights Standalone
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Operating profit Net profit
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price `39 `45
12 Months Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 1,004 2,507 1.7 74/28 266,656 2 17,561 5,323 NGCN.BO NJCC@IN
For 1QFY2013, Nagarjuna Construction Company (NCC)s performance was significantly above our and consensus estimates. However, the company continued its dismal show at the EBITDAM level. The current outstanding order book of NCC stands at `20,520cr (3.5x FY2013E revenue), with an order inflow of `2,001cr (up 48.3% yoy) for 1QFY2013. We maintain our Buy view on the stock. Robust revenue growth offset by poor margin performance: On the top-line front, NCC reported a jump of 29.0% yoy to `1,472cr, which was higher than our and the streets expectation of `1,187cr and `1,257cr respectively. Revenue growth was driven by building, power and water divisions. On the EBITDAM front, the companys performance was in line with our estimates at 7.9%, a dip of 230bp on a y-o-y basis. The interest cost came in at `93cr, a y-o-y jump of 7.5% but a decline of 5.4% on a sequential basis. At the bottom-line level, NCC reported a y-o-y decline of 28.6% to `17cr, higher than our and consensus estimates owing to a strong performance on the revenue front. Outlook and valuation: For FY2013 the company has given a guidance of 10-15% growth on the revenue front and is hopeful of maintaining the EBITDAM at 8-9%. NCCs captive power plant is expected to contribute ~`350cr to FY2013 revenues. Further, by end of FY2013 NCC is looking to reduce its debt to below `2,000cr levels through stake sale in its road BOT and power projects. During the quarter the company has also managed to bring its receivable days down to 88 days from 91 days in 4QFY2012. The stock is currently trading at low valuation of 0.4x P/BV FY2014 and, hence, we maintain our Buy view on the stock with a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) target price of `45.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 20.3 17.2 42.1 20.4
3m 6.6 2.4
FY2011 5,074 6.2 163 (18.4) 6.4 9.6 6.1 7.1 9.7 0.4 0.7 6.9
FY2012 5,250 3.5 36 (78.0) 1.4 7.6 27.9 1.5 6.7 0.4 0.6 7.5
FY2013E 5,804 10.5 78 117.0 3.0 8.0 12.9 3.2 7.9 0.4 0.6 7.5
FY2014E 6,513 12.2 90 15.0 3.5 8.6 11.2 3.6 8.3 0.4 0.7 7.8
Nitin Arora
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 nitin.arora@angelbroking.com
% Chg (yoy) 29.0 32.2 0.3 (230)bp 7.5 14.1 (5.7) (29.6) (31.6) (28.6) (90)bp (28.6)
% Chg (qoq) (16.1) (18.0) 14.4 (240)bp (5.4) 3.7 (30.1) 58.6 69.3 54.0 50bp 54.0
FY2011 5,074 4,588 485 9.6 257 69 106 266 102 164 3.2 6.4
% Chg 3.5 5.7 (17.7) (200)bp 49.5 21.1 14.1 (80.1) (83.4) (78.0) (250)bp (78.0)
August 9, 2012
1,335
1,450
1,142
1,090
1,264
1,755
1,472
2,729
1,349
1,701
6,893
1,000
2,000
400 200 0
2,000 1,000 -
(72.1)
577
(50.0) (100.0)
3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 Sales (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)
3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 Order Booking (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)
Projects update
Pondicherry Tindivanam: Currently, toll collection is `3.5lakhs/day, much lower
than the breakeven level of `8lakhs/day. However, the company believes that toll revenue will pick up going ahead. Western UP: Toll collection is currently at `21lakhs/day. The management expects `24lakhs/day going ahead.
Nelcast Power Project (1,320MW): NCC has achieved financial closure for the
project and has begun with civil works. On the fuel supply front, for 70% of coal requirement, the company has tied up with Coal India; and for the balance 30%, it has identified coal mines in Indonesia with its share at 50%. The total investment in the mine for NCC would be at around `50cr, out of which `8cr-10cr has already been invested. NCC has been shortlisted for signing a power purchase agreement (PPA) of 500MW with the Government of Andhra Pradesh for `3.7 per unit. Further, the company is hopeful of tying up with the governments of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu for more PPAs to ensure that it ties up 900-950MW of power through PPAs.
August 9, 2012
Exhibit 6: PAT dragged down by poor EBITDAM and high int. cost
50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.1 1.0 0.6 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0
41
36
23
11
11
(0.8)
17
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Methodology P/E P/E P/BV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV P/BV P/BV P/BV
Remarks 7x FY2014E Earnings 4x FY2014E Earnings 0.5 of equity invested; NCC's share 80.0% CoE -14%, NCC's share 33.3% CoE -14%, NCC's share 35.4% CoE -14%, NCC's share 30.0% CoE -14%, NCC's share 64.0% CoE -14%, NCC's share 49.0% 1.0x FY12E equity invested; NCC's share 67.0% 0.5x FY12E equity invested; NCC's share 55.0% 1.0x FY12E equity invested; NCC's share 54.0%
` cr 631.3 76.0 48.0 91.8 12.4 29.1 28.3 47.1 (25.2) 318.2 103.2 185.0 30.0 1,165
`/share 24.6 3.0 1.9 3.6 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.8 (1.0) 12.4 4.0 7.2 1.2 45
% to TP 54.2 6.5 4.1 7.9 1.1 2.5 2.4 4.0 (2.2) 27.3 8.9 15.9 2.6 100
August 9, 2012
12,853 15,259 17,502 53,171 60,474 69,091 1,802 5,250 3,573 2,676 6,019 2,206 5,804 3,609 2,506 6,732 2,502 6,513 3,836 3,147 7,837
1,419 1,553
August 9, 2012
Company background
Nagarjuna Construction Company, starting off as a building/industrial construction company, has emerged as an EPC contractor with a diversified product portfolio. NCCs presence across all the key infrastructure verticals: 1) roads; 2) buildings; 3) water; 4) irrigation; 5) electrical; 6) power; 7) oil and gas; and 8) metals endows it with a relatively de-risked business model. NCC has also ventured in international geographies such as Oman and UAE, which further diversifies its business.
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Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Order Book to Sales Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROACE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROAE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cyc (ex-cash/mob.adv)(days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 0.7 3.0 2.0 0.6 2.8 2.2 1.0 4.8 1.6 0.8 5.0 0.8 1.0 5.4 1.0 1.3 6.0 1.0 6.5 57 83 137 120 6.9 57 89 126 139 6.0 59 99 131 176 5.3 74 96 188 183 5.1 81 86 217 156 5.0 69 85 195 154 11.8 12.7 9.4 12.8 13.4 10.2 9.7 10.0 7.1 6.7 6.9 1.5 7.9 8.0 3.2 8.3 8.4 3.6 7.7 0.7 1.6 8.5 10.2 0.5 7.6 9.0 0.7 1.5 8.8 9.3 0.6 8.5 8.3 0.6 1.2 6.4 8.1 0.8 5.0 6.0 0.7 1.1 4.7 11.5 0.9 (1.5) 6.5 0.7 1.2 5.4 11.2 0.9 (0.0) 7.0 0.7 1.2 5.7 10.5 1.2 (0.1) 6.5 6.0 8.1 1.1 65.7 8.4 7.8 9.9 1.3 86.9 6.5 6.4 9.0 1.0 92.7 1.4 1.4 4.6 1.4 94.0 3.0 3.0 6.6 1.4 95.4 3.5 3.5 7.6 1.4 97.2 6.5 4.8 0.6 2.8 0.5 5.7 0.7 2.9 5.0 4.0 0.5 3.3 0.5 4.9 0.6 3.2 6.1 4.3 0.4 2.6 0.7 6.9 0.7 3.8 27.9 8.4 0.4 3.6 0.6 7.5 0.7 3.8 12.9 5.9 0.4 3.6 0.6 7.5 0.7 3.8 11.2 5.2 0.4 3.6 0.7 7.8 0.7 3.7 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
NCC No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
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