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Sea dispute between ASEAN and China reopens

2012-04-12 19:41

Over the past decades, the Philippines used to be benign with its defence strategy over the claims in South China Sea. Domestic turmoil, economic down-turn and southern rebellions kept the country at arms length on this key security issue. However, since July 2010, the government under President Benign Aquino III has displayed assertive foreign policy postures in the relations with the U.S. and China which has currently moved in an opposite direction. At the last weeks ASEAN summit in Phnom Penh, the Philippines unmistakably emerged as the most critical and loudest voice against China over the maritime territorial disputes. Even strong positions normally held by Vietnam regarding its claims, which has fought numerous wars during their thousands of years of adversarial relations, looked pale by comparison. Manilas new found confidence harked back to the Cold War when the country was the center of regional power with substantial and active American presence at Subic Naval Base and Clark Air Base. Obviously, the former American colony is trying to be the game changer extraordinaire within ASEAN amidst the fast changing regional landscape. With such a determination from a founding member, the latest round of discussions among the ASEAN members over this sensitive topic was no longer business as usual. Their positions on China are more difficult to manage than ever before. That has been the trend for a while after the U.S. State Secretary Hilary Clinton declared in July 2010 that it was in the U.S. national interest to see a peaceful settlement of the disputes. Soon after, ASEAN and China reached consensus in Bali over the guidelines of declaration of conducts of South China Seas (2002) after exactly a decade of negotiations. Building on this progress, the ASEAN senior officials met four times to discuss possible elements of code of conducts (COC) in the South China Sea since last November. Possible elements was used instead of terms of reference after Chinas objection. ASEAN hopes to finalize them by the July ministerial meeting before discussing with the Chinese counterpart. In recent months, anxious Beijing has sent a strong signal requesting joint deliberations on the COC but ASEAN was mute. At the summit, the Philippines and Vietnam objected strongly to have China taking part at this juncture. As such, it is doubtful whether ASEAN and China can actually agree, let alone sign, on the COC before the next Asean Summit planned in mid-November under the Cambodian chair. In the Chinese media, the rule of conducts has already become a preferred term used to refer to the COC. In the draft, ASEAN has linked the key COC elements with the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, among others. The Philippines has already proposed the setting up of a joint cooperation area on the Spratlys including a joint permanent working group that would operationalize activities in the disputed areas. But there was no consensus within ASEAN. At the Phnom Penh summit, China surprised ASEAN with a proposal to establish an eminent persons and experts group (EPEG) to discuss the COC. The EPEG will comprise 10 members, five each from China and ASEAN which will include the Jakarta-based secretariat. ASEAN would definitely turn down the proposal as China failed to consult beforehand. Furthermore, it is a track two discussion while the grouping wants to concentrate on the official mechanisms first before going further. The proposal is also deemed divisive as it discriminates the other half of ASEAN. In more ways than one, China and ASEAN have now realized that the frequent debates without an acceptable and workable framework of peaceful settlement and joint cooperation will only further complicate the issue and hold their longstanding mutual trusts hostage. Worse still, it can invite further involvement of outside players and dispute settlement mechanisms. Presently, ASEAN positions and views on the disputes are quite diverse comprising moderate and hard-lined varieties among claimants and non-claimants. Their differences surfaced after the so-called Aseanization efforts began in 1992 abruptly shifted to an open-end internationalized process in 2010 during the chair of Vietnam. Abilities to bring back the ASEAN-China mainstream if it is possible at all would now depend on the groupings

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7/7/2012 4:30 PM