5

Daily Market Note

Bloomberg: GNCP <GO>

www.genghis-capital.com

th

15 August 2012

Equities
NSE Steady above 3,800
The pressure eased on the NSE 20 index as it remained flat but more importantly above the 3,800 level in todays session.
The FTSE 15 and 25 indices followed suit closing 0.17% and 0.12% higher. The NASI however marginally declined by 0.06 points
to close at 83.16.Foreign investors were more active today closing at a net inflow of Kes.28Mn but the locals still dominated
trade today accounting for 66% of the total turnover. Bond & Equity turnover both improved up 33%.
Market Capitalisation was relatively flat at Kes.1.09Tn.
"We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely." - Warren Buffett
The highlights of the days trading activity are listed below:
Table 1: NSE Performance

Table 2: NSE Indices

Market Indices Summary

Top Traders
Equity

Volume

Index

Previous

Today

% change

83.22

83.16

-0.07%

Equity Bank Ltd

1,681,300

NASI

Safaricom Ltd

1,302,400

NSE 20 Share

3800.23

3801.03

0.02%

FTSE NSE 15

109.63

109.82

0.17%

FTSE NSE 25

112.16

112.29

0.12%

Kenya Power Ltd

981,600

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd

818,800

ScanGroup Ltd

594,100

Gaining Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

Unga Group Ltd

12.90

2.79

CFC Insurance Holdings

Ltd
Nation Media Group Ltd

7.75

2.65

185.00

2.21

ScanGroup Ltd

59.50

1.71

Sasini Ltd

11.25

1.35

Losing Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

Diamond Trust Bank Ltd

92.00

-7.54

Olympia Capital Holdings

Ltd
TPS EA Ltd

3.35

-5.63

38.00

-5.00

Express Kenya Ltd

3.55

-4.05

Standard Group Ltd

22.25

-3.26

Source: NSE

The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of todays trading

session stood at 16/19 with 16 stocks advancing in price and 19
shedding prices.
Foreign investor turnover increased to 33.51% in todays trading
compared to 29.30% at the close of yesterdays session.
Todays session resulted in a net inflow of Kes.28.8Mn
compared to a net inflow of Kes.30.7Mn at the close of the
previous trading session.
The highest foreign investor turnover was recorded on
ScanGroup Ltd (NSE: SCAN) 31.77Mn and Bamburi Cement
Ltd (NSE: BAMB) Kes.10.5Mn. The 2 counters accounted for
20.86% and 62.26% of the total NSE and total foreign activity
respectively.
Bamburi Cement Ltd (NSE: BAMB) recorded the highest net
inflow of Kes.9.9Mn.
The highest net outflow was recorded on KenolKobil Ltd (NSE:
KENO) at Kes1.09Mn.

Daily Market Note

Table 3: NSE Summary

14th August 2012

15th August 2012

% Change

Market Cap. (Kes.Bn)

1098.31

1097.62

-0.06%

Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn)

152.00

202.00

32.89%

70.70/29.30

66.49/33.51

N/A

17:20

17:20

N/A

1,719.00

2,280.00

32.64%

0.00

N/A

0.00%

N/A

Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%)

Advance:Decline Ratio
Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn)

Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O:

0.00
(Mn)
Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of
0.00%
Total Bond T/O)
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates

Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover

Foreign Investor Equity Turnover

14

th

15th August 2012

August 2012

Buys (Kes)
37,634,272.50
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

Sales (Kes)

Buys (Kes)

6,900,822.50

Sales (Kes)

48,334,237.50
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

30,733,450.00

19,503,212.50
28,831,025.00

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

The Energy & Petroleum Sector closed at the top spot up 0.62% buoyed by the performance of Kenya
Power Ltd (NSE: KPLC) which gained 1.28% to close at a VWAP Kes.15.80. The Total Index was depressed
on the back of decreasing prices in 6 segments to 0.39%.
The Banking segment occupied the bottom spot down 1.47% depressed by Diamond Trust Bank Ltd
(NSE: DTB) which shed 7.54% to close at a VWAP of Kes.92.00.
Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis

Sector

Constituents

Price Performance (% Change)

Energy & Petroleum

0.62

Agricultural

0.37

Automobiles & Accessories

0.33

Manufacturing & Allied

0.26

Insurance

-0.35

Telecommunication & Technology

-0.52

Construction & allied

-0.77

Commercial & Services

-0.93

Investment

-1.41

Banking

10

-1.47

Total Index
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital

60

-0.39

Daily Market Note

Trading Ideas:
The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year.
Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)
Price at
Target Price
Recommendation

Company

Current
Price

Upside
Potential

Return to
Date

Recommendation

Centum Investments Ltd

14.55

19.55

12.05

38.36%

-17.18%

BUY

Equity Bank Limited

15.80

19.90

21.25

-6.78%

34.49%

KenolKobil Limited

9.80

13.10

15.45

-17.94%

57.65%

NIC Bank Limited

26.50

45.50

34.75

23.63%

31.13%

EA Cables Ltd

11.80

14.55

10.20

29.90%

-13.56%

Athi River Mining Ltd

156.00

198.50

200.00

-0.76%

28.21%

Diamond Trust Bank Ltd

88.50

123.40

92.00

25.45%

3.95%

KCB Group Ltd

18.50

27.10

25.00

7.75%

35.14%

Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd

7.20

17.25

15.25

11.59%

111.81%

HOLD
SELL
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD

Kenya Power & Lighting Co.

Nation Media Group Ltd

15.85

22.00

15.80

28.18%

-0.32%

153.00

187.70

185.00

1.44%

20.92%

British American Investments

4.00

6.25

5.70

8.80%

42.50%

Cooperative Bank Limited

11.55

18.50

11.05

40.27%

-4.33%

Kenya Reinsurance Corp.

10.05

15.35

10.05

34.53%

0.00%

Scangroup Ltd

49.25

59.60

59.50

0.17%

20.81%

Portfolio Return
Source: Genghis Capital Ltd

23.41%

Fixed Income:
Yields on the 182-Day T-bill decline
Money Markets: The CBK remained relevant in the market to mop up Kes13.Bn in excess liquidity
through repos and TADs with the interbank rate marginally declined to 8.249% from yesterdays
close of 8.817%.
Primary Markets: The CBK today auctioned the 182-Day T-bill getting a 391% oversubscription.
Yields were at 11.366% down from 12.638% last week. The regulator will be targeting Kes.4Bn from
the 91-Day T-Bill auction to be held tomorrow. CBK issued a 2-yr bond with a target kes.10Bn
between 9th August and 21st August. Participation rates have picked up in the last auction pushing
the yields lower; a trend that is expected to carry on in the week.
Secondary Markets: The fixed income market had a turnover increase of 32.64% to Kes.2.2Bn
driven by IFBs that transacted Kes.785Mn; 34% of total turnover.
Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CDs

Tenor
91 Day
182 Day
1 Year
2 Year
5 Year
10 Year

Kenya
12.00%
11.37%
12.85%
13.83%
11.86%
12.71%

Uganda
18.11%
18.06%
17.00%
14.84%
15.39%
15.28%

Tanzania
13.06%
13.53%
13.54%
14.77%
14.74%
14.99%

U.S
0.10%
0.14%
0.18%
0.26%
0.62%
1.49%

LIBOR (USD)
0.46%
0.74%
1.07%
----

Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital

Daily Market Note

Currency:
KES in Dominant Mood
Performance: The national currency dominated all but one of the pairs listed in Table 8. The
largest gain was recorded in the East African currencies with the KESTZS pair up 1.16% and
KES gaining 1.14% against the UGX. Its only loss was noted against the INRKES pair losing
1.40%.
Table 8: Currency Rate

USD/KES

14th August 2012

84.03

15th August 2012

83.95

GBP/KES

130.62

130.51

EUR/KES

102.72

102.18

ZAR/KES

10.28

10.24

KES/UGX

29.49

29.82

KES/TZS

18.77

18.98

1.49

1.51

27thJan 2012

30thJan 2012

Currency Pair

INR/KES
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.

Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart below shows the candle sticks for the USDKES
pair for the year. Over the past few months this pair has been dominated by Double Dojis
Estimatesindicating a preparation for a major move but the regulator has been very active in the
market ensuring this pair remains stable at current rates.

Daily Market Note

Genghis Index:

Table 9: Genghis Index Performance

Large-Cap Index

The index lost 0.55% as Market Capitalisation was

constant Kes.889Bn.
The best performing counter in this segment was
Nation Media Group Ltd (NSE: NMG) up 2.21%.
Losing by the biggest margin in this segment
Diamond Trust Bank Ltd (NSE: DTB) shedding 7.54%.
Mid-Cap Index

The Index lost 0.53% over yesterdays close as Market

Capitalisation was at stagnant Kes.137Bn.
This sections best performer was CFC Insurance
Holdings Ltd (NSE: CFCI) up 2.65%.
Losing by the biggest margin was TPS EA Ltd (NSE:
TPS) down 5.00%.
Small-Cap Index

Source: Genghis Capital

Price performance closed down 0.27% with market

capitalization constant at Kes.23Bn.
Unga Group Ltd (NSE: UNGA) gained 2.79% to lead the
section as the best performer.
Losing by the biggest margin was Olympia Capital
Holdings Ltd (NSE: OLYMP) shedding 5.63%.

Daily Market Note

GENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05

Total
Shares Outstanding

Mkt Cap.
Kshs Mn.

Total Shares Traded

Price Change

EPS

DPS

P/E

Dividend
Yield - %

40,000,000,000

150,000,000,000

1,302,400

0.00%

0.32

0.22

11.72

5.87%

790,774,356

179,505,778,812

19,600

0.89%

9.30

8.75

24.41

3.85%

Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50

3,702,777,020

78,684,011,675

1,681,300

-1.16%

2.79

1.00

7.62

4.71%

Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0.50

5,431,536,000

75,769,927,200

220,300

0.00%

1.49

1.50

9.36

10.75%

Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00

362,959,275

63,517,873,125

119,500

0.00%

14.44

10.00

12.12

5.71%

Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

287,077,133

56,841,272,334

15,100

1.02%

19.75

11.00

10.03

5.56%

The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00

3,492,369,900

38,590,687,395

415,400

0.45%

1.53

0.40

7.22

3.62%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00

2,950,259,818

73,756,495,450

818,800

0.00%

3.72

1.85

6.72

7.40%

KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50

2,198,361,456

18,466,236,230

71,800

1.20%

0.94

0.50

8.94

5.95%

British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00

100,000,000

39,300,000,000

6,600

-1.50%

30.98

30.50

12.69

7.76%

Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50

157,118,572

29,066,935,820

36,900

2.21%

12.70

8.00

14.57

4.32%

CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00

273,684,211

11,700,000,020

17,000

-2.29%

5.99

0.00

7.14

0.00%

Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00

461,615,483

6,277,970,569

68,900

0.00%

3.58

0.25

3.80

1.84%

1,530,000,000

10,404,000,000

350,800

-0.73%

1.26

0.50

5.40

7.35%

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00

163,037,108

14,999,413,936

4,800

-7.54%

13.58

1.70

6.77

1.85%

Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50

633,024,000

10,001,779,200

981,600

1.28%

2.16

0.45

7.31

2.85%

99,055,000

19,811,000,000

21,400

-0.99%

11.63

2.00

17.20

1.00%

358,997,784

12,475,172,994

451,600

-2.80%

6.72

0.50

5.17

1.44%

889,168,554,760

6,603,800

-0.55%

7.94

4.40

9.90

4.55%

East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00

Athi River Mining Ord 5.00

NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50

604,947,068

7,289,612,169

116,800

0.00%

1.79

0.00

6.73

0.00%

KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05

1,471,761,200

22,738,710,540

269,900

0.00%

2.21

1.00

6.99

6.47%

Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00

284,789,128

16,944,953,116

594,100

1.71%

2.55

0.70

23.33

1.18%

National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

280,000,000

5,040,000,000

818,800

-2.44%

3.19

0.40

5.64

2.22%

90,000,000

5,130,000,000

0.00%

6.24

0.50

9.13

0.88%

148,210,640

5,632,004,320

7,000

-5.00%

4.51

1.30

8.43

3.42%

54,450,000

8,820,900,000

9,900

0.00%

33.00

4.50

4.91

2.78%

CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50

582,709,440

7,866,577,440

0.00%

-0.31

0.00

-43.55

0.00%

Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50

600,000,000

6,030,000,000

33,100

-0.50%

3.19

0.35

3.15

3.48%

Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

235,750,000

3,724,850,000

30,600

0.00%

2.70

1.20

5.85

7.59%

Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

175,028,706

2,992,990,873

4,600

0.00%

3.05

0.00

5.61

0.00%

Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00

33,980,265

4,077,631,800

0.00%

8.89

5.00

13.50

4.17%

Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

96,000,000

3,312,000,000

13,200

-2.82%

2.31

1.00

14.94

2.90%

E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50

253,125,000

2,581,875,000

4,200

-1.45%

1.15

1.00

8.87

9.80%

AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00

208,084,296

998,804,621

15,700

-1.03%

0.53

0.00

9.06

0.00%

74,059,026

1,647,813,329

3,500

-3.26%

2.96

0.00

7.52

0.00%

2,150,000,000

12,255,000,000

58,100

0.00%

-1.09

0.15

-5.23

2.63%

Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00

265,424,636

4,047,725,699

69,300

0.33%

1.47

0.00

10.37

0.00%

Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS

273,950,284

6,574,806,816

0.00%

1.23

0.25

19.51

1.04%

CFC Insurance Holdings Ltd ord.1.00

515,270,364

3,993,345,321

500

2.65%

1.84

0.00

4.21

0.00%

Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00

228,055,500

2,565,624,375

12,500

1.35%

1.72

1.00

6.54

8.89%

19,525,446

2,167,324,506

4,600

0.91%

7.71

6.80

14.40

6.13%

136,432,549,924

2,066,400

-0.53%

4.13

1.14

6.36

2.89%

E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00

TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00
Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00

British-American Investments Co (Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10

B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS SMALL CAP MARKET SEGMENT

278,342,393

1,057,701,093

12,500

1.33%

0.35

0.20

10.86

5.26%

Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00

8,756,320

2,162,811,040

0.00%

93.74

57.50

2.63

23.28%

Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00

19,599,999

1,469,999,925

0.00%

28.06

3.75

2.67

5.00%

Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00

60,000,000

1,020,000,000

200

0.29%

7.79

1.10

2.18

6.47%

Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00

22,279,616

512,431,168

0.00%

7.78

0.55

2.96

2.39%

Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00

75,708,873

976,644,462

10,700

2.79%

3.57

0.75

3.61

5.81%

Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

23,727,000

818,581,500

1,900

-1.43%

5.44

1.25

6.34

3.62%

Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00

210,000,000

378,000,000

78,000

0.00%

-0.59

-3.05

0.00%

Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS

16,078,500

884,317,500

4,900

0.92%

1.36

1.25

40.44

2.27%

City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

5,728,314

1,661,211,060

116,800

0.00%

6.12

4.00

47.39

1.38%

58,500,000
3,912,000
2,179,615,440

1,053,000,000
539,856,000
9,699,288,708

600
200
470,100

-0.28%
0.00%
1.14%

2.33
19.93
0.27

1.50
7.50
0.09

7.70
6.92
16.48

8.36%
5.43%
2.02%

The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS

1,200,000

540,000,000

0.00%

33.70

7.50

13.35

1.67%

Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

35,403,790

125,683,455

12,300

-4.05%

-6.47

-0.55

0.00%

Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

40,000,000

134,000,000

2,800

-5.63%

0.38

0.10

8.82

2.99%

Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00

14,393,106

172,717,272

0.00%

-11.80

-1.02

0.00%

Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

12,868,124

38,604,372
23,244,847,555

0
711,000

0.00%
-0.27%

0.04
10.67

4.84

75.00
13.49

0.00%
4.22%

Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS

Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIMS
CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00

Daily Market Note

Contacts
Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: mwaireri@genghis-capital.com
Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: ewanjiku@genghis-capital.com
Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: akimani@genghis-capital.com
Kelvin Nyabando, Research Analyst | Tel:+25420 2774781 | Email: knyabando@genghis-capital.com
Edgar Wamalwa,Head of Research | Tel:+254 20 2774767 | Email: ewamalwa@genghis-capital.com
George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: gguy@genghis-capital.com
Mbuthia Irungu, Head Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 721 791324 | Email: mirungu@genghiscapital.co.ke
Andrew Maina,Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: amaina@genghis-capital.com
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital
Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the
purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are
solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide
accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to
its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the
information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.

Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi.

Tel: +254 20 2774760Fax: +254 20 246334