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    債惑不解 變生臨界

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    JinpaNamkha
    作者為著名投資分析專家，其前沿思考（Thoughts from the Frontline）是目前全球發布範圍最廣的投資通訊，擁有過百萬讀者。 John Mauldin擁有極強洞察能力、擅長解構複雜的金融現象，每周對華爾街、全球金融市場和經濟歷史提出精闢見解，極具參考價值。

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    債惑不解 變生臨界

    Uploaded by

    JinpaNamkha
    127 views7 pages
    作者為著名投資分析專家，其前沿思考（Thoughts from the Frontline）是目前全球發布範圍最廣的投資通訊，擁有過百萬讀者。 John Mauldin擁有極強洞察能力、擅長解構複雜的金融現象，每周對華爾街、全球金融市場和經濟歷史提出精闢見解，極具參考價值。

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    作者為著名投資分析專家，其前沿思考（Thoughts from the Frontline）是目前全球發布範圍最廣的投資通訊，擁有過百萬讀者。 John Mauldin擁有極強洞察能力、擅長解構複雜的金融現象，每周對華爾街、全球金融市場和經濟歷史提出精闢見解，極具參考價值。

    Copyright:

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    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    127 views7 pages

    債惑不解 變生臨界

    Uploaded by

    JinpaNamkha
    作者為著名投資分析專家，其前沿思考（Thoughts from the Frontline）是目前全球發布範圍最廣的投資通訊，擁有過百萬讀者。 John Mauldin擁有極強洞察能力、擅長解構複雜的金融現象，每周對華爾街、全球金融市場和經濟歷史提出精闢見解，極具參考價值。

    Copyright:

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    of 7

    2012 8 20

    John Mauldin

    Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche

    Alan
    Greenspan

    John Mauldin

    complexity theory

    Mark Buchanan
    Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen

    1987 Per BakKurt Weisenfeld


    nonequilibrium systems

    1.14 power law

    fingers of instability

    Washington University in St LouisHyman Minsky


    stability leads to instability

    Stern Investment Holdings Lawrence Hunt


    Taylor

    Didier Sornette
    Why Stock Markets Crash


    proximate cause
    remote cause

    15%
    2% 15%

    2005 2006

    AAA


    PIMCO Paul McCulley
    Shadow Banking System

    fat
    tails
    bell curve

    5-sigma events
    standard
    deviation

    15
    90
    Long Term Capital
    Management

    game theory
    John Forbes NashThe Beautiful Mind
    Nash Equilibrium

    stable disequilibrium

    1997

    29 30

    Debt Supercycle

    Carmen ReinhartKenneth Rogoff

    Thoughts from the Frontline

    John Mauldin

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