Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 28, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 28, 2012 Market Highlights (% change)
Last as on August 27, 2012 Prev. day -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.9 -0.1 -0.5 0.2 -0.7 0.2 1.4 0.2 -1.1 0.2 WoW -0.3 -0.1 -1.1 -0.5 0.3 -1.5 -2.0 -0.1 -0.5 3.2 8.6 2.9 1.9 0.3 MoM 2.9 3.1 0.4 1.8 7.4 4.0 1.5 5.2 6.3 3.3 10.8 1.6 3.8 -0.3 YoY 12.7 11.5 16.3 19.9 1.4 7.8 8.9 3.3 11.8 -6.8 -24.2 -15.5 -21.1 3.1

Highlights
German Ifo Business Climate declined to 102.3-mark in August. Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trade. German Import Prices increased by 0.7 percent in July.

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P

5350.3 17678.8 13124.67 1410.4 15012.9 1917.9 58111.5 9085.4 95.47 1672.40 3103.90 7662.75 469.04 99.73

Asian markets are trading on a weak note after Japans government downgraded its economic growth due to global slowdown and as investors await policy decisions by the US Federal Reserve in the later part of the week.

FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jun'12) -$/bbl Comex Gold (Jun12) - $/oz Comex Silver(May12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a mixed note but finally settled in appreciation 0.1 percent towards the end on back of rise in the risk aversion amongst market participants which led to increase in the demand for the low yielding currency that is DX. US equities also pared earlier gains towards the end of the session as investors awaited Federal Reserve decision on stimulus measures expected to be announced on August 31, 2012. The currency touched a high of 81.73 and closed at 81.69 on Monday.

Source: Reuters

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.4 percent yesterday taking cues from mixed global market sentiments along with month end dollar demand from oil and its importers. Additionally, mixed sentiment in the DX coupled with decline in domestic equities also added downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on the back of selling of few dollars from foreign banks. The currency touched a low of 55.715 in yesterdays trading session and closed at 55.69 on Monday. For the current month, FII inflows totaled at Rs 7,087.40 crores till 27 August 2012. While on a year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs th 59,353.20 crores till 27 August 2012. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments due to rise in the risk aversion amongst market sentiments. Month end dollar demand from the oil importers and banks is expected to further depreciate the currency.
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US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 81.69 55.69 55.68 55.67 Prev. day 0.1 -0.4 0.33 0.33

as on August 27, 2012 WoW -1.0 -0.3 -0.26 -0.26 MoM -1.4 -0.5 0.52 0.52 YoY 10.6 -17.1 20.87 20.31

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR August12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for August 27, 2012 Support 55.5/55.35 Resistance 55.77/55.9

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 28, 2012

Euro/INR
The Euro declined 0.1 percent on the back of mixed global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Additionally, unfavorable economic data from the economy also exerted downside pressure on the currency. It touched a low of 1.2488 and closed at 1.2499 on Monday. German Import Prices increased by 0.7 percent in July as against a decline of 1.5 percent a month ago. German Ifo Business Climate declined by 1 point to 102.3-mark in August from previous rise of 103.3level in July. Outlook In todays session we expect Euro to trade sideways with bearish note on the back of strength in the DX. Additionally, unfavorable economic data from the region might also exert downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR August12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 69.45/69.15 69.9/70.05 valid for August 28, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2499 69.61 69.74 69.7 Prev. day -0.1 -0.3 0.59 0.59 WoW 1.3 -1.6 1.19 1.18

as on August 27, 2012 MoM 1.9 -2.4 2.41 2.37 YoY -13.8 -3.9 4.88 4.64

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Pound depreciated by 0.1 percent yesterday taking cues from weak global market sentiments. Additionally, strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency. It touched an intra-day low of 1.5788 and closed at 1.5792 on Monday. Outlook We expect Pound to trade rangebound on account of negative global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR August 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for August 28, 2012 Support 87.75/87.45 Resistance 88.2/88.35

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5792 87.92 88.01 Prev. day -0.1 -0.2 0.23 WoW 0.5 -0.9 0.57

as on August 27, 2012

MoM 0.5 -1.0 1.23

YoY -3.5 -16.4 17.04

88.03

0.26

0.58

1.27

16.86

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 28, 2012

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of mixed global market sentiments. The currency touched an intra-day low of 78.84 and closed at 78.72 on Monday. Outlook We expect Yen to depreciate today on account of downgrade of the nations economy by the government due to global slowdown. But sharp depreciation in the currency might be capped on the back of weak global markets which will lead to increase in the demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR August 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for August 28, 2012 Support 70.50/70.25 Resistance 70.90/71.05

JPY (% change)
Last 78.72 0.7072 70.72 70.72 Prev day 0.1 -0.3 0.09 0.07

as on August 27, 2012 WoW -0.9 -1.2 0.69 0.70 MoM 0.7 0.2 -0.07 0.02 YoY 2.8 -17.5 18.15 18.00

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on August 28, 2012

Indicator GfK German Consumer Climate Nationwide HPI m/m M3 Money Supply y/y S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence Country Euro UK Euro US US Time (IST) 11:30am 28 31
th st

Actual -

Forecast 5.8 0.2% 3.3% -0.3% 65.8

Previous 5.9 -0.7% 3.2% -0.7% 65.9

Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium High

1:30pm 6:30pm 7:30pm

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