Global Cleantech 2012

COPENHAGEN CLEANTECH CLUSTER
Global Cleantech Report 2012

A SNAPSHOT OF FUTURE GLOBAL MARKETS
- EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION -
May, 2012
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EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION
Table of contents
1) Executive Summary The cleantech platforms and global markets: a sector in growth The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the fastest-growing platforms The centre of gravity for cleantech growth is moving East and West The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal" p. 3
p. 4
p. 5 p. 6 p. 7
The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas
The six megacity cleantech clusters including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks will account for the majority of the cleantech growth
The global cleantech challenge: a complex value system To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate the industrialisation Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for competitive integrated solutions with local content The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is moving towards complex value systems Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and competences in the "greening" of megacities The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering regimes p. 9 p. 10 p. 11 p. 12 p. 13
The cleantech sector in a Danish context: an opportunity or a threat? Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector p. 15 p. 16 p. 17
2) Appendix
p. 18
THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS
The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the fastest-growing platforms
Cleantech plaforms market size (USD billions)
CAGR
7%
28%
3%
26%
-7%
39%
4%
6%
84%
74%
66%
18%
243
2015 Growth 2010 Market
72
160
110
113 15
79 89 73
63
171 107
95 47 26
59
31 5 26
14
-28
13 4 10
13
13
8 1
8
5 6 2 3
Clean water
Building efficiency materials
Onshore wind
Smart grid
Solar PV (2011-2015)
Offshore wind
Solid waste
Bioenergy
Clean road transport
Maritime cleantech
Energy storage
Geothermal
Note: Markets include all major CAPEX but not operations or commodities. Total may vary due to roundings
4 Sources: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
The centre of gravity for cleantech growth is moving East and West
The global market for cleantech across regions, 2010- 2015E (USD billions) North America
Onshore wind Offshore wind Solar Geothermal Bioenergy Building efficiency materials Smart grid Clean road/EV Clean water Solid waste
Europe
Onshore wind Offshore wind Solar Geothermal Bioenergy Building efficiency materials Smart grid Clean road/EV
CAGR >10% CAGR 0-10% CAGR < 0%
Asia ~4%
243 198
142
~14%
181 94
~15%
287
Clean water Solid waste
2010 2015
2010 2015
2010 2015
South America
Africa ~14% ~19%

8 26 11
Australia
Onshore wind
16
Offshore wind
~8%
13 19
Solar Geothermal Bioenergy Building efficiency materials Smart grid
2010 2015
2010 2015
2010 2015
Clean road/EV Clean water Solid waste
Note: centre of gravity is used as a metaphorical term in this context
5 Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal"
Top-30 cities will drive 20% of the GDP growth from 2010-20
Cities have the power to influence cleantech investments through large projects Area Transport City power Number of city projects
Total GDP growth, 2010-2020

100%
Buildings
ROW
Waste Water Energy supply
60%
Outdoor lighting
Top-600 cities
ECO-city definition ECO-cities cover five focus areas which contribute to improve the quality of life in cities while using resources in a sustainable way and reducing environmental impact Urban transport Waste Renewable and smart energy generation and distribution Water Building energy efficiency
20%
Top-30 cities
10% 100%
Total population growth, 2010-2020
6 Source: McKinsey & Co, Brookings Institute, PWC, UN, World Bank, C40, MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas
Share of the world's population living in urban areas Per cent (billion people)
Example of Chinese investments in megacity developments
(7,57) (7,22) (6,84) 46%
(7,91)
(8,22)
43%
41%
Rural areas
50%
48%
China is planning to invest DKK 1.800 billion across 160 infrastructure projects over the next couple of years to merge nine cities in South China, creating a city with 42 million inhabitants*
Urban areas
50%
52%
54%
57%
59% Total investment in urban infrastructure in China over the next five years is expected to hit GBP 685 billion, with an additional GBP 300 billion spend on high-speed rail and GBP 70 billion on urban transport
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
British Chamber of Commerce
*The Telegraph, 24 Jan 2011, by Malcolm Moore in Shanghai and Peter Foster in Beijing Source: World Economic Forum; The Economist; British Chamber of Commerce
THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS and GLOBAL MARKETS
The six megacity cleantech clusters including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks will account for the majority of the cleantech growth
Top-200 large cities' growth trajectories, 2012-2020
10.000
9.000
8.000 Absolute Population Growth (103)
Indian megagrowth
7.000
6.000
Rapid urbanisation
5.000
4.000
3.000
5
Great Turks
4
Great BRIC+
2.000
6
1.000 Wealth creators American Hotspots 50 100 150 200 Absolute GDP Growth ($ billion)
250 300
Note: The majority of these cities have set Eco city targets for e.g. emissions and have Eco city projects under way
Table of contents
1) Executive summary
The cleantech platforms and global markets: a sector in growth The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the fastest-growing platforms The centre of gravity for cleantech growth is moving East and West The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal" The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas The six megacity cleantech clusters including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks will account for the majority of the cleantech growth p. 3 p. 4 p. 5 p. 6 p. 7
The cleantech sector in a Danish context: an opportunity or a threat? Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector p. 15 p. 16 p. 17
2) Appendix
p. 18
THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE
To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate the industrialisation
In order to become a viable global industry, cleantech must reduce cost of energy to become independent of governmental support
Coal vs. wind global average costs* (USD/MWh)
So far, no cleantech or clean energy industry has managed to cross the cost of energy chasm without legislative support through incentives or codes Sample technology maturity curve ILLUSTRATIVE Gas Oil Coal
EXAMPLES
Coal Offshore wind
109
243
Market penetration
Cost of energy chasm
"Non-green" vs. green building extra up-front cost for green building**
Green building US Green building Germany Green building China
16% 17% 28%
1 7
Next gen. cleantech
3 6 2 5 9 4 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Green buildings Solar PV Solid waste Offshore wind Onshore wind Bioenergy Smart grid Geothermal Clean road transport
Time In 2035, subsidies to renewables reach almost USD 250 billion in the New Policies Scenario. Onshore wind becomes competitive around 2020 in the European Union All other technologies require continuing subsidies smart grid and building energy efficiency equipment and services are the most probable ones crossing the cost of energy chasm since they are able to reduce alternative investments in infrastructure while reducing the operating cost
World Energy Outlook 2011
The Global Cleantech Report 2012
* Estimated for plants entering into service in 2016. Unit is 2012 USD ** The extra cost varies between countries due to difference in local build culture, certification programmes and green build material production 10 Source: World Energy Outlook; Reuters; World Business Council Sustainable Development BCI Survey; Quartz+Co analysis; MEC Intelligence analysis
Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for competitive integrated solutions with local content
ILLUSTRATIVE
Savings from integrated "One System" solutions across city segments
City segment City segment description Affordable Greening - e.g. Lagos
Driven by extreme urbanization and low GDP Need to create a large growth in new housings Making these housings and infrastructure green can create the lowest total CAPEX for water, electricity and waste
Comfort Evolution - e.g. Mexico City

Evident in most large and fast growing cities in developing countries Strong urbanization in recent years Focus on livability through buildings with improved comfort, more efficient transportation and typically most important clean water and clean air
Branded City - e.g. London

Large cities in the developed world which are competing against each other to attract the right companies and to be a very attractive place to live for its citizens The ECO city projects are not a need driven ambition but a strive towards being a truly better place
Green building extra CAPEX Energy infrastructure CAPEX saving Energy/water subsidy saving Water utility CAPEX saving Transport infrastructure CAPEX saving Job creation from local content Attractive lucrative jobs Retaining attractive population
Value (USD)
Net benefit 0
Complex value creation
$Business case = (utility CAPEX saving) + (OPEX saving) + (job creation) + (less CO2 emissions) + .... Financial Societal Environmental
The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is moving towards complex value systems
From a micro-thinking approach with multiple customer touch-points across sectors
to a macro approach where purchasing decisions are coordinated and made on an aggregated level across sectors
Traditional go-to-market approach
ILLUSTRATIVE
Market approach towards megacities
ILLUSTRATIVE
Energy
Transport
Water
Buildings Suppliers
Master planning
Energy
Transport
Water
Buildings
Suppliers
Suppliers
Suppliers
Suppliers
12 Source: Quartz+Co analysis
Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and competences in the "greening" of megacities
Lack of capital Cities are empowered to implement new sustainable projects but limited by access to capital
Competition for resources is fierce. Because of growth pressures and capital constraints, compromises are often reached to serve more interests rather than to serve more people more effectively The World Bank Ecological Cities as Economic Cities 2010
India case: Expected development in funding of regional projects in India

100%
Urban Local
33%
50%
Lack of competences Competences for sustainable planning and implementation are in shortage
Cities in developing countries face much tougher challenges than do their counterparts in developed countries. Technical capacity is often lacking The World Bank Ecological Cities as Economic Cities 2010
Gov. Funds
57%
30%
20%
PPP & ADB's 10% 2011 2020
Note: PPP = Public-Private Partnerships, ADB = Asia Development Bank
The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering regimes
Key Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) success cases
Case 1: Veolia and Suez Global leaders in water, French Veolia Environnement (Vivendi) and Suez Environnement have partnered on PPP water projects and have pioneered the PPP model, injecting finance into the system and driving market growth and consolidation. In a PPP, ownership of assets remains public and only certain functions are delegated to a private company for a specific period.
Case 2: Toshiba The Japanese major global player Toshiba is driving some part of the Delhi Mumbai Corridor through large scale PPP projects funded by Japan Inc.
Case 3: Keppel Corp Tianjin Eco-city is sponsored by Keppel Corp from Singapore. The Keppel Group was entrusted to lead the Singapore private sector consortium for a bilateral co-operation project and works in close tandem with a Chinese consortium partner to guide the 50-50 joint venture Sino-Singapore Tianjin EcoCity Investment and Development Co., Ltd. (SSTEC) in its role as master developer of the Tianjin Eco-city.
Case 4: Siemens Siemens' new Infrastructure & Cities Sector will manage the company's global business with cities and infrastructures. The new Sector, with around 87.000 employees, will contain the Mobility and Building Technology Divisions from the Industry Sector, as well as the Power Distribution Division and Smart Grid business from the Energy Sector.
Consortium of Japanese companies (Toshiba-Tokyo Gas-NEC) have signed a MoU* on a priority ECO-city project.
* Memorandum of Understanding
Table of contents
The cleantech platforms and global markets: a sector in growth The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the fastest-growing platforms The centre of gravity for cleantech growth is moving East and West The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal" The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas The six megacity cleantech clusters including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks will account for the majority of the cleantech growth p. 3
p. 4
p. 5 p. 6 p. 7
The cleantech sector in a Danish context: an opportunity or a threat? Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector
p. 15
p. 16 p. 17
2) Appendix
p. 18
15
THE CLEANTECH SECTOR IN A DANISH CONTEXT
Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector
Cleantech industry
Clean water
Competence level in DK
Global market size 2015
Sample companies
1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. Grundfos Novozymes 7T Rockwool VKR Grundfos Danfoss Kamstrup Vestas Siemens AH industries Hydratech DONG Energy EnergiNet Danfoss Power Electronics Vestas/Siemens DONG Energy A2Sea NKT Bladt DONG Energy Kommune Kemi Hrslev Industries Babcock Novozymes DONG Energy Better Place Danfoss Desmi Alfa Laval Aalborg AP Mller Maersk
Global ranking within market*

1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. Top 50 Top 100 Top 50 Top 5 Top 10 Top 10 Top 10 Top 50 Top 10 Top 10 Top 10 Top 10 Top 50 Top 50 Top 50 Top 5 Top 5 Top 5 Top 10 Top 10 Top 50 Top 50 Top 10 Top 10 Top 10 Top 50 Top 10 Top 20 Top 10 Top 5 Top 5
Green buildings
Onshore wind
Smart grid Solar
Offshore wind
Solid waste
Bioenergy
Clean road transport
Maritime cleantech
* Indicative global rating in niche market, e.g. Rockwool in the insulation market or Grundfos in the water utility equipment market based on MEC Intelligence analysis
Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector
Strategic focus area Business strategy Markets
From ... BRIC market, Europe and North America
... to Mega- and large cities focus on global scale
Business models
Risk diversification and avoidance
Risk sharing/Risk management Integrated system business case (multiple bottom lines) Open garden
Business cases
Stand-alone (single bottom line)
Value proposition
Innovation
Walled garden
Products
Engineering and "High end"
Scalable "mass production" developed to local needs
Go to Market
Partners
DIY
Partner with lead turnkey providers
Sales and marketing
"Push"
Push/pull (key opinion leaders)
Customer relations
Industrial
Institutional and industrial
In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector
Key considerations How, and in what order, should you Business address the different subsegments strategy in the market (cities/geographies)? Key beliefs Community presence and relationships are critical to pave the way for commercial success in megacities "Recommendations " The right place: large cities Relations must be build with stakeholder on city level globally
Value proposition
To what extent is your stand-alone offering unique and innovative in the market in terms of other solutions from competitors and substitutes? How can your company best succeed in the market with the new channel needs and market logic? As a stand-alone company only offering own products and services Through partnerships with other players offering more integrated solutions What are the organisational requirements needed to be able to address this new channel/market? To what extent do your current governance and competences match the needs?
Go-to-market model
Megacities are demanding integrated solutions in which previously independent components and services are bundled
The right partners: leading solution providers Participate in PPP and Partner with leading solution/turnkey providers
Organisation al capabilities
Local economies and societal agendas are highest priority for megacity stakeholders
The right offering: local needs and local value creation

Develop offering and new business models embracing complex value creation and multiple bottom lines at local level
Table of contents
2) Appendix Cleantech sectors Clean water Green buildings Onshore wind Smart grid Solar Offshore wind Solid waste Bioenergy Clean road transport Geothermal p. 19 + 20
p. 21
p. 22 p. 23 p. 24 p. 25 p. 26 + 27 p. 28 p. 29 p. 30
The Megacity Clusters
p. 31
19
APPENDIX
As the largest and fastest-growing market globally, Asia dominates the water market as key developed markets mature
Clean water CAPEX and OPEX made by Utilities, Municipalities and Industries Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Profit opportunity Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential High/Large Low/Small Government support % CAGR (2010-2015) Addressable market
ESTIMATE
~2%
142 157 140
~3%
159
Market accessibility
~7%
Profit opportunity
220 160
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility
North America
Europe Asia 2010 2015 2010 2015 ~5% 2010 2015
Profit opportunity
Government support Addressable market
20
Africa
25
Government support
Solution attractiveness
~5% ~6% 2010 2015
Addressable market
Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Profit opportunity
25
33
24
Australia 2010
31
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Profit opportunity
South America
2010 2015
2015
20 Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
APPENDIX
The capital expenditure in the water sector is expected to grow from USD ~170 billion in 2010 to USD ~245 billion in 2015 or nearly 30-35% of the total water market
Clean water CAPEX Water and Waste Water Infrastructure Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Profit opportunity Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Low/Small Five-year market growth potential Government support % CAGR (2010-2015) Addressable market Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential High/Large
ESTIMATE
~5%
~6%
61 48
47
Europe
62
~10%
Profit opportunity
85 54
North America
Market accessibility Profit opportunity
2010
Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Profit opportunity
2015
2010
2015 ~8%
Asia
7
~9% Africa
10
2010
2015
Government support
~8%
Addressable market
13 8
South America 2010 2015
2010
Government support
2015
8
Addressable market Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Profit opportunity
12
Australia 2010 2015
APPENDIX
Europe is projected to be the largest market for green buildings in 2015 followed by North America and Asia Asia is expected to grow at almost double the rate of Europe
Green building materials CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Profit opportunity Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Low/Small High/Large
ESTIMATE
~23% ~32%
425
Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility
Government support % Addressable market CAGR (2010-2015)
563
Profit opportunity
~40%
321
202
North America
107
Europe 2010 2015 Asia ~42%

35
2010 2015
60
Profit opportunity
2010 2015
~52%
Africa and Middle East

8
N.a.
2010 2015
South America
Australia
2010 2015
2010 2015
APPENDIX
Value-wise, the key onshore wind markets are large and stagnant. Growth is coming from new regions
Onshore wind CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness
ESTIMATE
High/Large Low/Small
Five-year market growth potential
~1% ~3%
24 19 22 25
Profit opportunity
~0%*
47 47
North America 2010 2015
Europe 2010 2015
Profit opportunity
Asia 2010 2015

~25%
~31% Africa South America
9 2
~11%
2010 2015
Australia 2010 2015
2010 2015
* Global price-erosion of 5% p.a., based on sample analysis of key turbine manufacturers, balancing out increase in number of GW installed p.a. in Asia
APPENDIX
Asia (China) is expected to become the predominant smart grid market by 2015 growing rapidly from 2010 to 2015 and outpacing both Europe and North America
Smart grid CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Low/Small Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Government support % Addressable market CAGR (2010-2015) High/Large
ESTIMATE INDICATIVE
~11%
Profit opportunity
~22%
Profit opportunity
~31%
71
North America
Europe 2010 2015 Asia 2010 2015

19
2010 2015
Profit opportunity
NA
NA
~21%
Africa
2
2010 2015 South America

1
Australia
2010 2015
2010 2015
APPENDIX
2011 was "PEAK Solar". Towards 2015 the European solar market will drop significantly while all other markets demonstrate strong growth led by North America
Solar energy CAPEX Global market across regions, 2011-2015E (USD billions)
Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness High/Large Low/Small Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Profit opportunity Government support % Addressable market CAGR (2010-2015)
ESTIMATE INDICATIVE
~-22%
26
82
~30% Europe 30
~5%
Solution attractiveness
14
Asia
17

2011 2015 2011
Profit opportunity
2015
NA.
South America 0 0 2015 Africa 0 2011
NA. 0 ~29% 2015 Australia 0 2011 1

2011 South America
2015
APPENDIX
Northern Europe is projected to maintain its status as the largest offshore wind market in 2015 and Asia, North America and South America is projected to experience rapid growth
Offshore wind CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Low/Small Five-year market growth potential High/Large
ESTIMATE INDICATIVE
~22%
Market accessibility Market accessibility
Government support % Addressable market % CAGR (2012-2015) CAGR (2010-2015)
~72%
Profit opportunity
38
Profit opportunity
~74%
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential
14
12
North America
Europe 2010 2015 Asia

0
21
2010 2015
2010 2015
NA.
NA.
~60%
Africa
2
2010 2015 South America

0
Australia
2010 2015
2010 2015
APPENDIX
The global market for solid waste management is expected to grow from nearly USD 425 billion in 2005 to nearly USD 500 billion in 2020
Solid waste* CAPEX and OPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Profit opportunity Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Low/Small Five-year market growth potential Government support % Addressable market CAGR (2010-2015) High/Large
ESTIMATE INDICATIVE
~3% 110 128 Europe 2010 2015
~3% 129 149
~4% 184 153
North America
2010
2015
Asia
Profit opportunity
2010
Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness
2015
NA. ~7%
Government support
10
South America 2010
14
NA.
Addressable market
2010 2015 2015

2010 2015
* The water market comprises expenditure on both equipment and services. The waste market for Africa is primarily comprised of investment into the collection services and hence has not been studied. The Australian market is comprised of only 2% of the global market and hence is considered too small to be considered for the study 27 Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
APPENDIX
More than 90% of the expenditure on solid waste is in services or operations. The new investments needed in the municipal waste management sector are only a fraction of the market size amounting to nearly USD 25-35 billion annually
Solid waste* 10-year investments needed by sector (percentage) ESTIMATE INDICATIVE
North America 100% = USD 45 billion Europe 100% = USD 87 billion
25 4 10 6 12 29 16 23
Asia 100% = USD 86 billion

43
%
Collection and Transfer Dump Upgrade and Closure Landfill and Composting Mechanical and Biological Treatment Waste to Energy 0
33
CAGR (2010-2015)
23 25 19
32
Collection and Transfer Dump Upgrade and Closure Landfill and Composting Mechanical and Biological Treatment Waste to Energy 0 0
10 37
53 10 21 8
57 0
33
23 25 19
South America 100% = USD 16 billion*
Africa 100% = USD 11 billion*
Australia 100% = USD 4 billion
* This investment size might not be realised due to lack of policy and institutional support
APPENDIX
North America to be the largest bioenergy market in 2015 followed by South America and Europe Australia is growing rapidly
Bioenergy CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Low/Small Five-year market growth potential Government support % Addressable market CAGR (2010-2015) High/Large
ESTIMATE INDICATIVE
~7% ~5%
26 19 52 41
Profit opportunity
~10%
5 9
Europe
2010 2015
North America
2010 2015
Asia
2010 2015
Profit opportunity
~4% ~5%
0 21 27 0
Africa
2010 2015
0
Government support
~19%
1
South America 2010
Australia
2010 2015
2015
Addressable market Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Profit opportunity
Biomass electricity production Biofuel
APPENDIX
Asia and Europe are expected to become the leading EV and PHEV markets looking towards 2015 followed by North America
EV and PHEV CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Low/Small Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Government support % Addressable market Solution attractiveness CAGR (2010-2015) High/Large
ESTIMATE INDICATIVE
~94%
Profit opportunity
~79%
5
Profit opportunity
~72% North America

0 2
Europe
2010 2015
2010 2015 Asia NA.

0
Profit opportunity
2010 2015
NA. South America
Africa
~73%
2010 2015
0 0
Australia
2010 2015
2010 2015
~95%
Charging infrastructure Global market, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
0 1
2010 2015
APPENDIX
Asia is poised to become the largest geothermal market in 2015 followed by North America and Europe
Geothermal CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD millions)

Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Government support Addressable market Solution attractiveness
ESTIMATE INDICATIVE
Five-year market growth potential
~27%
~11%
1.530
1.096
Profit opportunity
~20%
1.922
899
336
Europe 2010 2015 Asia NA. 2010 2015 ~18% NA.

0 0
778
Profit opportunity
142 61
Africa 2010 2015

0
South America
Australia 2010 2015
2010 2015
APPENDIX
The top-30 megacities can be divided into six cleantech clusters with the Great Turks growing at the same pace as Great BRIC+
Segment
Cities Lagos Karaci Jakarta Wuhan Chongqing Delhi Mumbai

Kolkotta
Top-30 absolute GDP growth, 2010-2020 (USD billions)
Top-30 absolute population growth, 2010-2020 (103)
0
Tokyo New York London Shanghai Mumbai Delhi Beijing Seoul Sao Paolo Guangzhou Los Angeles Shenzhen Mexico Chicago Tianjin Kolkata Moscow Istanbul Bangkok Washington Chongqing Hong Kong Houston Jakarta Hangzhou Bangalore Karachi Izmir Wuhan Lagos
50
100
150
200
250
Tokyo New York London Shanghai Mumbai Delhi Beijing Seoul Sao Guangzhou Los Angeles Shenzhen Mexico Chicago Tianjin Kolkata Moscow Istanbul Bangkok Washington Chongqing Hong Houston Jakarta Hangzhou Bangalore Karachi Izmir Wuhan Lagos
2.000 1.069 579 463 1.204
4.000
6.000
8.000 10.000
Rapid urbanisation
Indian megagrowth
5.768 9.259 1.045 1.226 2.283 494 526 2.592 2.266 790 818 2.824 659 2.581 1.201 616 4.539 723 1.060 8.779 1.442 2.439 7.405 2.152 2.723 5.985
Wealth creators
New York Beijing Tokyo Shanghai London Seoul

Shenzen Sao Paolo Hong Kong Moscow Mexico City Bangkok Tianjin Guangzhou Hangzhou Bangalore Istanbul Izmir Los Angeles Houston Chicago Washington
Great BRIC+
Great Turks
American Hotspots
Note: The majority of these cities have set Eco city targets for e.g. emissions and have Eco city projects under way

Global Cleantech 2012

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Global Cleantech 2012

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COPENHAGEN CLEANTECH CLUSTER

Global Cleantech Report 2012

THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS

2015 Growth 2010 Market

Building efficiency materials

Clean road transport

4 Sources: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis

THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS

CAGR >10% CAGR 0-10% CAGR < 0%

Clean water Solid waste

Africa ~14% ~19%

Solar Geothermal Bioenergy Building efficiency materials Smart grid

Clean road/EV Clean water Solid waste

Note: centre of gravity is used as a metaphorical term in this context

5 Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis

THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS

Total GDP growth, 2010-2020

Waste Water Energy supply

Total population growth, 2010-2020

THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS

Example of Chinese investments in megacity developments

(7,57) (7,22) (6,84) 46%

British Chamber of Commerce

THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS and GLOBAL MARKETS

8.000 Absolute Population Growth (103)

8 Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis

THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE

Coal Offshore wind

Cost of energy chasm

Green building US Green building Germany Green building China

16% 17% 28%

Next gen. cleantech

World Energy Outlook 2011

The Global Cleantech Report 2012

THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE

Comfort Evolution - e.g. Mexico City

Branded City - e.g. London

Complex value creation

11 Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis

THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE

From a micro-thinking approach with multiple customer touch-points across sectors

Traditional go-to-market approach

Market approach towards megacities

12 Source: Quartz+Co analysis

THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE

India case: Expected development in funding of regional projects in India

Note: PPP = Public-Private Partnerships, ADB = Asia Development Bank

13 Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis

THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE

Key Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) success cases

14 Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis

THE CLEANTECH SECTOR IN A DANISH CONTEXT

Global market size 2015

Global ranking within market*

Smart grid Solar

Clean road transport

16 Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis

THE CLEANTECH SECTOR IN A DANISH CONTEXT

Strategic focus area Business strategy Markets

From ... BRIC market, Europe and North America

... to Mega- and large cities focus on global scale

Risk diversification and avoidance

Stand-alone (single bottom line)