Shiva Shree Hydropower Pvt. Ltd.

Upper Balephi A Hydroelectric Project ____________________________________________________________________________________

4.0 Hydrological Study

4.1 Catchment area of the basin
Balephi Khola is a mostly snow fed perennial river (partially rain fed) with catchment area at the upstream of the proposed intake sites varying from 430 sqkm to 452 sqkm. The Balephi Khola Basin upstream of the proposed headworks is located in Sindhupalchowk District of the Central Development Region. The altitude in this basin varies from 6966 masl at peak of the Jugal Himal at the north to 1045masl at the powerhouse site. Further, the catchment area at intake is classified as follows: Above 5000 m Between 3000m and 5000m Below 3000 m 85.44 km 252.18 km 96.65 km

It is evident from the above figures that approximately 20 percent of the basin catchment lies in the permanent snow cover area, about 60 percent of the basin catchment lies in the seasonal snow cover area and nearly 20 percent of the basin lies purely in the rain fed area. Having snow cover area of 80 percent is considered to be very good and as a result of this Balephi river gives a good perennial flow during the dry season. The catchment area of this basin is shown in figure 4-5 at the end of this chapter.

4.2 Precipitation study

There are no meteorological records available for Balephi Khola basin. According to the Climatological Records of Nepal (GoN, DHM), the nearest rainfall station are Barhabise (Index No. 1027), Gumthang (Index No. 1006), Dhap (Index No. 1025) and Sarmathang (Index No. 1016). Moreover, few other stations are located around the catchment basin but at relatively long distance. The details of these stations are shown in the table 4-1. There is no rainfall data available for this Balephi basin. There is not even any precipitation record available above the latitude of the proposed headworks site. Thus, the average annual basin precipitation has been estimated by constructing Isohyetal maps prepared by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (Table 4-2 and 4-3).

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Table 4-1. Precipitation Stations around Balephi Basin

Station No. 1006 1008 1009 1016 1017 1018 1025 1027 Annual Precipitation , mm 3861 2440 2037 3817 2409 1793 2581 2875 Location Gumthang Nawalpur Chautara Sarmathang Dubachaur Bahunepati Dhap Barhabise

Table 4-2. Annual Average Precipitation above Intake by Isohyetal Map

Between isohyets below 2500 2500-2600 2600-2700 2700-2800 2800-2900 above 2900 Mean precipitation of catchment at intake, mm Mean, mm 2450 2550 2650 2750 2850 2950 Area (sq.km) 74.40 105.52 98.27 75.91 53.26 26.90 434.26 Mean ppt x area 182277.55 269078.55 260426.10 208758.00 151788.15 79346.15 1151674.50 2652.03

Similarly, the average annual precipitation in the centroid of basin above Jalbire station is computed as below (Table 4-3). Table 4-3. Annual Average Precipitation above Jalbire Station by Isohyetal Map
Between isohyets below 2500 below 2500 2500-2600 2500-2600 2600-2700 2700-2800 2800-2900 2900-3000 3000 mean precipitation of catchment at Jalbire station, mm Mean, mm 2450 2450 2550 2550 2650 2750 2850 2950 3000 Area (sq.km) 74.40 26.34 105.52 19.72 125.57 114.57 80.46 44.20 9.18 599.96 Mean ppt x area 182277.55 64533.00 269078.55 50296.20 332763.15 315056.50 229322.40 130381.15 27525.00 1601233.50 2668.91

Since the Isohyetal map gives fairly correct value, the annual average rainfall in the Balephi basin is taken as 2652mm. Similarly, the mean monsoon precipitation at the centroid of the basin above the proposed intake is computed as 2252.47mm and that of Jalbire station is
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2266.7mm, the isohyetal maps used for computation are shown in figures 4-6 and 4-7 at the end of this chapter.

4.3 Reference Hydrology

4.3.1 Stream Flow Data Balephi River is well gauged river with long term discharge measurement. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has been recording the discharge data since 1964 with well prepared daily data since 1986. The gauging station is established in Jalbire across the Balephi Khola. Table 4-4 lists the summary of this catchment. Table 4-4. Hydrological Station Data
St.N. 620 River name and Location Balephi Khola, Jalbire Elevation (m) NA Lat/Lon g 27 48 20 85 46 10 Years of Records 1986-2006 Annual Mean Runoff (m3/s) 34.69 Drainage Area (km2) 600

(Source: DHM, Hydrological Estimations in Nepal) The daily discharge data of this station has been available from the year 1986 only. Though there are records of mean monthly discharge data from the year 1964 till the year 1985, this data has not been analyzed to compute the probability of exceedance of flow. 4.3.2 Computation of Stream Flow for Balephi River at Intake The precipitation catchment area ratio method is used to estimate flow in the Balephi River above the proposed intake with reference to the station 620. The formula used is

Q1 =
where, P A Q = = =

P 1 P2

A A1 Q2 2

Average Annual Precipitation (mm) Basin Area (km2) River Discharge (m3/s)

The long term mean monthly flow for Balephi River is computed and presented in the Table 4-5. The details of computation are shown in the annex.

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Table 4-5. Long-term Monthly Average Flow by Precipitation Catchment Area Ratio
Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Annual Balephi River at Jalbire (C.Area = 599.97 km2) (Annual ppt = 2669mm) 14.08 12.31 11.90 13.47 20.50 56.37 135.14 167.70 110.87 51.31 26.79 18.49 53.24
Flow Hydrograph at Intake
140.00 121.02 120.00

Balephi River at Intake (C.Area = 434.27 km2) (Annual ppt = 2652mm) 10.12 8.85 8.56 9.69 14.74 40.54 97.20 121.02 79.74 37.32 19.27 13.44 38.37

100.00

97.20

Discharge, m3/s

80.00

79.74

60.00

40.54 40.00

37.32

20.00 10.12 0.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr 8.85 8.56 9.69

19.27 14.74 13.44

May

Jun Months

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Figure 4-1. Long term annual hydrograph of Balephi River computed at the Intake 4.3.3 Available flow for Power Generation There are no irrigation fields at the downstream of the proposed weir that utilize water from the Balephi River. Therefore, there is no requirement for reduction of

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river discharge. However, provision has been made as 10% of the minimum monthly discharge for downstream flow. The downstream release will be required particularly during the months from December to May when the river has the lowest flow in the month of March. Hence, a downstream release of 0.81m 3/s has been provisioned. The available flow at the intake has been shown in the table 4-6. Table 4-6. Available flow at the Intake
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual River flow (m3/s) 10.12 8.85 8.56 9.69 14.74 40.54 97.20 121.02 79.74 37.32 19.27 13.44 38.37 D/S Release (m3/s) 0.856 0.856 0.856 0.856 0.856 0.856 0.856 0.856 0.856 0.856 0.856 0.856 0.856 Available flow for diversion (m3/s) 9.26 7.99 7.70 8.83 13.88 39.68 96.34 120.16 78.88 36.46 18.41 12.58 37.52

4.3.4 Flow Duration Curve The flow duration curve for the Balephi River has been derived based on the daily average discharge computed using catchment area ratio method. The flow duration curve is shown in Figure 4-2. Various discharges corresponding to probability of exceedance are shown in Table 4-7.

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Flow Duration Curve at Intake
350

300

250

Discharge (m3/s)

200

150

100

50

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Probability of Exceedance (%)

Fig 4-2. Flow Duration Curve, based on mean monthly flow

Table 4-7. River discharge at various level of probability of exceedance (m3/s)

S.N. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Probability of exceedance (%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% Discharge (m3/s) 374.00 128.02 102.13 86.31 74.08 58.69 43.15 30.20 23.30 19.28 16.69 14.53 12.87 11.65 10.57 9.78 9.08 8.34 7.70 6.99 3.23

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4.4 Flood Hydrology

4.4.1 Flood Data The flood in the Balephi River has been estimated using catchment area ratio method with historical instantaneous flood in Jalbire multiplying by the adjustment factors corresponding to catchment area and basin precipitation. Table 4-8 shows generated instantaneous flood in the Balephi River at proposed headworks. Table 4-8. Generated instantaneous flood in Balephi River
Year of Record 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Maximum Instantaneous Flood Flow (cumecs) 159.00 618.60 305.70 247.40 453.20 251.80 1021.40 647.40 647.40 305.70 877.60 561.10 201.40 561.10 431.60 197.80 1021.40 374.00 1510.60 704.90 670.40 693.40 Year of Record 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Maximum Instantaneous Flood Flow (cumecs) 474.80 446.00 601.40 417.20 417.20 223.00 151.10 719.30 161.80 317.90 266.20 446.00 402.80 532.30 359.70 287.70 266.20 205.00 259.00 423.00 227.30

4.4.2 Flood Frequency Analysis of Historical Flood The flood in Balephi River has been estimated using Flood frequency analysis of the generated instantaneous flood data. Flood frequency analysis has been conducted for the generated instantaneous flood data for Balephi River at Jalbire. The distributions used are Normal, 2 Parameter Log Normal, 3 Parameter Log Normal, Gumbel, Log Pearson III and Pearson III. The best fit distribution is Log Pearson III method that has smallest root mean square distribution error among all other distributions. Table 4-9 summarizes results of the analysis.

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Table 4-9. Result of Flood Frequency Analysis

Return Period (yr) 200 100 50 25 20 10 5 3 2 Error Gumbel Extrem al 1460 1315 1169 1022 974 823 666 542 429 66.3 Log Pearso n III 1890 1606 1348 1113 1042 834 640 504 395 42.0 Pearson III 1656 1458 1263 1070 1009 820 633 496 386 53.9

Probability 0.995 0.990 0.980 0.960 0.950 0.900 0.800 0.667 0.500 Standard

3-PLN 1562 1383 1210 1041 987 821 652 523 411 57.9

2-PLN 1644 1434 1236 1047 988 810 637 509 402 55.4

Normal 1177 1108 1033 949 920 820 699 586 467 104.7

4.4.3 Design Flood Flood data given by the Log Pearson III distribution has lowest standard error and is therefore chosen for design of the structures. The 1 in 100 year and 1 in 200 year floods at the intake are 1606 m3/s and 1890 m3/s, respectively.

4.5 Dry Season flow

For construction works, it has been assumed that the dry season will be from November to April. The dry season flood in Balephi River at headworks has been estimated using catchment area precipitation ratio method with historical maximum daily average flow for each year multiplying by the adjustment factors corresponding to catchment area and the basin precipitation. Table 4-10 shows computed dry season flood in Balephi River by various methods. Table 4-10. Dry Season Flood Frequency Analysis
Return Period (yr) 200 100 50 25 20 10 5 3 2 Error Gumbel Extrem al 68.98 62.83 56.66 50.45 48.43 42.07 35.44 30.18 25.43 3.82 Log Pearso n III 67.71 60.51 53.72 47.28 45.27 39.17 33.16 28.64 24.76 3.7 Pearson III 75.49 66.36 57.57 49.17 46.56 38.75 31.5 26.62 23.13 3.27 2PLN 64.16 58.59 53.05 47.51 45.71 40.04 34.11 29.38 25.11 3.87

Probability 0.995 0.990 0.980 0.960 0.950 0.900 0.800 0.667 0.500 Standard

3-PLN 67.93 61.04 54.41 47.98 45.95 39.7 33.47 28.73 24.67 3.59

Normal 52.86 50.34 47.58 44.52 43.45 39.78 35.33 31.19 26.83 5.17

The result shows that there is no major variation in computed flow particularly for the return periods of 1 in 5 to 1 in 20. Therefore, construction flood of 45.27m3/s with 1 in 20 year return period has been estimated.
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4.6 HEC-RAS Analysis

The water surface profiles were generated by using the HEC- RAS model, developed by the US Army Corp of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center. It is a fixed bed model and calculates the water surface level at each cross section for a given discharge and Mannings coefficient. The analyses were performed at intake and the powerhouse site for different values of discharge and rating curves were generated at the weir axis (Figure 4-3) and tailrace outlet (Figure 4-4). The main purpose of this analysis was to find out the water surface elevation at various discharges and most importantly, to see if the designed structures could safely pass the design flood without causing flood induced damage. For analysis at the intake site, the river cross sections along with the designed structures were taken into account. As for the discharge, the probable maximum floods at 100 and 200 years return period were used. Mannings roughness coefficients were taken as per the site conditions and steady state analysis was performed. The details of the output of this analysis have been presented in the annex.

Rating Curve at Weir Axis

1258 1256 1254

Elevation (m)

1252 1250 1248 1246 1244 1242 0 250 500 750 1000
3

1250

1500

1750

2000

Discharge (m /sec)

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Figure 4-3. Rating curve for water surface at the weir axis based on HEC-RAS

Rating curve at Tailrace Outlet

1046

1044

Elevation(m)

1042

1040

1038

1036 0 500 1000

3

1500

2000

2500

Discharge(m /s)

Figure 4-4. Rating curve for water surface at tailrace outlet based on HEC-RAS Similarly, for powerhouse site the same procedure was repeated. The water surface elevation at the tailrace outlet was determined from the result. The summary of the results are given in the annex.

4.7 Basin Sediment Study

The sediment yields are significantly high in the Himalayan Rivers due to steep river gradient, valley slope failures and erosion and intense rainfall. Sediment transported by Balephi River consists of bed load consisting large boulders and cobbles, suspended particles consisting of fine sand, silt and clay particles. The sediment transport characteristics and rates are not available for Balephi River. Hence, necessary information about the characteristics of the suspended sediment load and its seasonal distribution required for the study are estimated based on Himalayan yield technique and reports on the regional studies. 4.7.1 Himalayan Yield Technique In this method, the catchment area is divided into various parts depending on geological conditions, rainfall and slope of the catchment area. The yield from

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the high Himalaya, high Mountains and middle Mountains is considered as 500 tons/km2, 2500 tons/km2 and 5000 tons/km2, respectively. The catchment area of the Balephi River at intake site is 434.27 km2. The high Himalayas above 5000m has a catchment area of 84.44 km2, the high Mountains between 3000m to 5000m has a catchment area of 252.18 km2 and the middle Mountains below 3000m has a catchment area 96.65 km2. Hence, the corresponding rate of the sediment yield at the intake results with an approximate figure of 1.16 million tons per annum. This corresponds to a mean annual daily monsoon concentration of about 1231 ppm (parts per million by weight) at the proposed intake using the mean annual monsoon discharge of 71 m3/s. If 75% of the total concentration is considered to be suspended sediment then the mean annual daily monsoon concentration will be about 930 ppm, which is fairly low in regards with Himalayan Rivers. 4.7.2 Regional Studies Referring the feasibility report of Bhotekoshi Hydroelectric Project (NEA, 1994) an average yield of about 10.7 million m3 per year is recommended for the headworks site with a catchment area of 2132 km 2. This gives approximately 5020 tons per square kilometers of sediment feed at Bhotekoshi intake. Adopting the same sediment yield rate as that of Bhotekoshi for Balephi river, the total annual sediment transport for Balephi River above proposed intake will be 2.18 million ton/year. This figure is almost two fold than the figure derived from Himalayan yield technique (1.16 million tons per year). The sediment concentration based on the Bhotekosi corresponds to a mean annual daily monsoon concentration of about 2320 ppm at proposed intake site using the mean annual monsoon discharge of 71 m3/s. If 75% of the total concentration is considered to be suspended sediment then the mean annual daily monsoon concentration will be about 1740 ppm, which is may be regarded as logical figure for a river like Balephi. 4.7.3 Regional Method (Sharma and Kansakar, 1992) The regional method developed by K.P Sharma and S.R Kansakar (1992) has also been used to compute the sediment transport. This method is based on the sediment data measured from 12 river catchments of Nepal. Based on the regression studies Sharma and Kansakar (1992) proposed following formula.

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Asy = -2.20992 + 0.05439 Arock0.5 + 0.0748 A20.5 + 0.05097 MWI0.5 Where, A2 MWI Arock Asy = = = = catchment area below 2000 m Monsoon wetness index catchment area above 2000m and below 5000m Total suspended sediment yield (million tons/ year)

The parameters given above will have following figures for upper Balephi-A Intake: A2 MWI Arock = = = 15 km2 2652 mm 334 km2

The above inputs give annual suspended sediment yield of 1.7 million tons per year at proposed intake site. When the bed load is assumed to be 25% of the suspended load as is considered a general case, the total annual sediment yield is estimated to be 2.1 million tons/year. This corresponds to mean annual daily monsoon concentration of about 2265 ppm at the proposed intake site. In this case the mean annual daily monsoon suspended sediment concentration will be about 1700 ppm, which is fairly close to the value derived based on Bhotekosi Intake. 4.7.4 Discussions The proposed intake for Upper Balephi-A Project is located at an elevation 1252 masl and the project area lies upstream of the MCT fault. Most of the rocks upstream of this intake belong to higher Himalayan Crystalline group. The valley slopes are therefore considered to be fairly stable. In this respect the average annual monsoon suspended sediment yield is not expected to exceed 2000 ppm. However, during extreme rain fall event the mass wasting along the valley slope is expected to occur and such events will bring excessive sediment yield. As a result, during monsoon period there are extreme flood events that brings considerable amount of suspended sediments and it may be as high as up to 10,000 ppm. Hence, the settling basins are designed to sustain this extreme event.

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