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Market Outlook

September 11, 2012

Dealers Diary

Domestic Indices

The Indian markets are expected to open in red tracking negative opening in most
of the Asian markets which matched losses on Wall Street as investors grew
cautious ahead of key event risks from the U.S. and Europe later in the week, and
with a weak euro hitting exporter stocks in Japan.
The US markets closed lower yesterday as apprehension ahead of the Federal
Reserve's upcoming monetary policy meeting contributed to the weakness. The Fed
is due to announce its latest decision on monetary policy Thursday afternoon
followed by a news conference by Chairman Ben Bernanke. Uncertainty about
whether the Fed will announce another round of quantitative easing dragged
stocks lower, although selling pressure remained relatively subdued. Some
negative sentiment was also generated by disappointing trade data from China,
with a report showing an unexpected year-over-year drop in imports in the month
of August.

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

BSE Sensex

0.1

Nifty

0.1

4.8

5,363

MID CAP

0.3

17.0

6,160

SMALL CAP

0.7

45.4

6,542

BSE HC

1.0

73.0

7,715

6.0

7,040

BSE PSU

0.1

BANKEX

(0.8)

AUTO
METAL
OIL & GAS
BSE IT
Global Indices

17.1 17,767

(89.1) 11,557

0.5

46.7

9,586

0.7

69.7

9,907

(0.0)

(3.7)

8,372

0.0

(0.1)

5,983

(Pts)

(Close)

Chg (%)

Dow Jones

(0.4)

(52.4) 13,254

Meanwhile the Indian markets moved in a lackluster manner on Monday, as a


lack of progress on fiscal reforms to cut down the government's expenditure on
wasteful subsidies kept investor mood subdued ahead of industrial output and
inflation data due on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.

NASDAQ

(1.0)

(32.4)

3,104

FTSE

(0.0)

(1.6)

5,793

Nikkei

(0.0)

(2.3)

8,869

Markets Today

Straits Times

The trend deciding level for the day is 17,769 / 5,363 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 17,809 17,851 / 5,376 5,389 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
17,769 / 5,363 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
17,726 17,686 / 5,350 5,336 levels.

Shanghai Com

Indices
SENSEX
NIFTY

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

17,686

17,726

17,769

17,809

17,851

5,336

5,350

5,363

5,376

5,389

News Analysis

Hang Seng

0.1

25.0 19,827

(0.1)

(3.0)

3,009

0.3

7.1

2,135

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

INFY

(0.8)

(0.4)

$45.3

WIT

(0.5)

(0.0)

$8.3

IBN

(1.3)

(0.4)

$34.0

HDB

(2.0)

(0.7)

$34.3

Indian ADRs

Advances / Declines

BSE

NSE

Infosys acquires Lodestone for US$350mn


Government bans mining in Goa until further notice

Advances

1,526

782

Declines

1,308

660

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Unchanged

116

77

Net Inflows (September 7, 2012)


` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

MTD

YTD

FII

2,653

2,137

516

760

63,772

352

556

(203)

(642)

(9,407)

MFs

FII Derivatives (September 7, 2012)


` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

Open Interest

Index Futures

931

1,402

(471)

9,272

Stock Futures

941

919

23

24,589

Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Adani Enter

Price (`)

Losers

chg (%)

Company

Price (`)

chg (%)
(3.5)

170

9.4

Reliance Comm

49

37

5.4

HDIL

70

(3.3)

Engineers India

228

4.6

IRB Infra

125

(3.1)

Pidilite Inds

209

4.2

Hindustan Copp

263

(3.0)

Century Tex

339

4.2

Axis Bank

953

(2.6)

Manappuram Finance

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Volumes (` cr)

BSE

1,778

NSE

81,23

Market Outlook
September 11, 2012

Infosys acquires Lodestone for US$350mn


Infosys has announced acquisition of Lodestone, a Zurich-based SAP
implementation and management consultancy company. This will be an all cash
deal valued at 330mn Swiss Franc (US$345 mn), 2/3 of consideration to be paid
up-front with the other 1/3 to be paid after 3 years subject to certain conditions.
We believe this is a step in the right direction and in tandem with Infosyss strategy
to focus more on high-margin software and consulting services and less on laborintensive outsourcing services.
About Lodestone: It is a global consulting firm, headquartered in Switzerland
which advises clients on strategy and process optimization and provides business
transformation solutions enabled by SAP. Lodestone reported revenues of 207mn
Swiss Franc (US$220mn) in FY2011 and has over 850 employees including 750
consultants. Lodestone derives 83% of its revenues from Europe and it has more
than 200 clients (negligible overall with Infosys existing client base) across
industries including manufacturing (17%), automotive (16%), life sciences (28%),
and consumer goods (14%) sector. Lodestone has presence in 17 countries across
five continents
The deal: This deal is valued at ~1.3x FY2012 EV/sales, which is decent for a
consulting firm. Post acquisition, Infosys will have about a billion dollars coming
from its SAP practice. The transaction is expected to close by the end of October
2012, subject to customary closing conditions and will be EPS accretive in 18
months.
Infosys Consulting and Systems Integration business currently has more than
30,000 consultants across 10 industry verticals and accounts for 31% of the
company's revenue. From the revenue side, the gains are not substantial but what
works for Infosys with this acquisition is that the company is strengthening its
presence in Europe, where its other peers have significant presence. We see this
acquisition as a step in the right direction and much needed inorganic booster for
the company. We currently maintain our estimates for Infosys as this deal will be
EPS accretive in 18 months. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock.

Government bans mining in Goa until further notice


Goa government has imposed a ban on iron ore mining in Goa until further
review. There are 90 mines which are currently operational in Goa. Sesa Goa
operates several mines in Goa with an annual production of 12mn tonne. Sesa
Goa generates a significant proportion of its revenues and profit from its Goa
mines. However, 2QFY2013 is a seasonally weak quarter for Sesa Goa given that
it sells only 10-15% of its annual output during second quarter of a fiscal year on
account of monsoon in Goa. The companys Karnataka mines with annual
capacity of 6mn tonne are also facing a ban currently. In the short-term the stock
of Sesa Goa is likely to decline due to the ban in Goa. With no clarity on the
timelines on lifting the ban on Goa mines, we recommend Neutral rating on the
stock.
Over the long-term, however, Sesa Goa's stock price performance will be
determined by the operating performance of Sterlite Industries and Sesa Goa
(combined) on account of the proposed merger (which will result in new entity Sesa
Sterlite). Approximately 22% of valuation of Sesa Sterlite is derived from Sesa Goa

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
September 11, 2012

operations (mainly iron ore business) in our SOTP based target price. Hence, in
light of this, we recommend a Neutral rating on Sterlite Industries until further
clarity emerges.

Economic and Political News

Car sales may miss growth forecast, will revise after September: SIAM
Modi hits out at CBI for being 'hostile' to Gujarat
Power debt restructuring won't hit India's sovereign rating: S&P

Corporate News

Adani Power expects to earn `600cr from carbon credits


Opto Circuits' arm launches new drug eluting stent
RIL may see larger drop in KG-D6 gas
Zydus gets FDA nod for Ultracet painkiller
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
September 11, 2012

Global economic events release calendar


Date

September 12, 2012

Country

Event Description

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data
Last Reported

Estimated

UK

Jobless claims change

% Change

Aug

(5.90)

--

India

Industrial Production YoY

% Change

Jul

(1.80)

0.50

US

Initial Jobless claims

Thousands

Sep 8

365.00

370.00

US

Producer Price Index (mom)

% Change

Aug

0.30

1.20

US

FOMC rate decision

Sep 13

0.25

0.25

Euro Zone

Aug

2.40

2.60

% Change

Aug

6.87

7.05

US

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)


Monthly Wholesale Prices
YoY%
Industrial Production

Aug

0.65

--

US

Consumer price index (mom)

% Change

Aug

--

0.60

India

RBI Repo rate

Sep 17

8.00

8.00

India

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

Sep 17

4.75

4.75

India

RBI Reverse Repo rate

Sep 17

7.00

7.00

September 18, 2012

UK

CPI (YoY)

% Change

Aug

2.60

--

September 19, 2012

US

Existing home sales

Millions

Aug

4.47

4.55

US

Housing Starts

Thousands

Aug

746.00

770.00

US

Building permits

Thousands

Aug

811.00

796.00

Germany

Value

Sep A

48.30

--

Value

Sep A

(24.60)

--

Germany

PMI Services
Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
PMI Manufacturing

Sep A

44.70

--

September 25, 2012

US

Consumer Confidence

Sep

60.60

--

September 26, 2012

US

New home sales

Value
S.A./
1985=100
Thousands

Aug

372.00

--

September 27, 2012

Germany

Unemployment change (000's)

Thousands

Sep

9.00

--

US

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

% Change

2Q T

1.70

--

UK

GDP (YoY)

% Change

2Q F

(0.50)

--

India

Imports YoY%

% Change

Aug

(7.60)

--

India

Exports YoY%

% Change

Aug

(14.80)

--

UK

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Sep

49.50

--

China

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Sep

49.20

--

UK

BOE Announces rates

% Ratio

Oct 4

0.50

0.50

Euro Zone

ECB announces interest rates

Oct 4

0.75

--

US

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

Thousands

Sep

96.00

--

US

Unnemployment rate

Sep

8.10

--

September 13, 2012

September 14, 2012

India

September 17, 2012

September 20, 2012

Euro Zone

October 01, 2012

October 04, 2012

October 05, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

Market Strategy
September 11, 2012

Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)

(%)

10.0

8.0

9.2

9.0

8.5

9.0

8.2
7.6

7.5

8.0

6.0
6.0

8.0

5.3 5.5

5.0

1.0

2.0

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

2QFY10

1QFY10

4QFY09
(%)

9.9

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Mfg. PMI

Services PMI

58.0

9.5
7.7

8.0

Dec-11

(5.0)

60.0
10.0

(1.8)

(2.8) (0.9)

(6.0)

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

12.0
9.8

Nov-11

Oct-11

(4.0)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

6.9

7.4

7.7

7.5

7.6

7.3

56.0
6.9

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Sep-11

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


(%)

Aug-11

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

48.0

Dec-11

0.0

Nov-11

50.0

Oct-11

2.0

Sep-11

52.0

Aug-11

4.0

Oct-11

54.0

6.0

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

60.0

(%)
9.00

45.0

8.00

30.0

7.00

Exports yoy growth

Imports yoy growth

Repo rate

Reverse Repo rate

CRR

6.00

15.0

5.00

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

4.00

Aug-11

(30.0)

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

Sep-11

Aug-11

0.0
(15.0)

Sep-11

Jul-11

(2.0)

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Aug-11

3.5

3.0

10.0

2.5

2.7

2.5

Sep-11

4.0

3.4

6.1

5.7

6.0

4.3

3.7

4.0

6.7

7.0

Market Outlook
September 11, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical


Rallis

Neutral

137

2,667

1,466

1,686

14.8

14.8

7.0

8.1

19.6

16.9

4.2

3.5

22.6

22.5

1.9

1.6

United Phosphorus

Buy

121

170

5,573

8,421

9,263

16.5

16.5

15.0

17.0

8.1

7.1

1.2

1.0

15.6

15.5

0.8

0.7

Amara Raja Batteries

Neutral

389

3,320

2,844

3,225

15.4

15.5

31.7

36.6

12.3

10.6

3.2

2.5

28.8

26.2

1.1

0.9

Apollo Tyres

Neutral

95

4,763

13,412

15,041

11.0

11.0

11.5

14.2

8.3

6.7

1.4

1.2

18.7

19.4

0.5

0.4

Ashok Leyland

Buy

21

30

5,654

14,920

16,850

9.0

9.3

2.2

2.8

9.8

7.7

1.8

1.6

13.3

15.6

0.5

0.4

Automotive Axle

Buy

344

430

520

993

1,140

11.6

11.5

36.9

43.0

9.3

8.0

1.8

1.6

21.2

21.3

0.6

0.4

Bajaj Auto

Neutral

1,684

48,728

21,285

23,927

18.2

18.3

108.5

121.3

15.5

13.9

6.4

5.2

46.1

41.3

1.9

1.6

Bharat Forge

Buy

294

351

6,852

7,004

7,985

16.2

16.4

20.3

25.1

14.5

11.8

2.7

2.3

20.0

20.9

1.2

1.0

Bosch India

Neutral

8,443

26,510

9,034

10,286

17.8

18.3

373.6

435.8

22.6

19.4

4.6

3.8

20.5

19.8

2.6

2.2

CEAT

Buy

117

164

402

4,989

5,634

8.7

8.5

32.7

41.1

3.6

2.9

0.5

0.5

15.8

16.9

0.3

0.2

Exide Industries

Neutral

144

12,215

5,899

6,771

16.0

17.0

7.4

9.1

19.5

15.7

3.5

3.0

19.0

20.2

1.7

1.5

FAG Bearings

Neutral

1,570

2,609

1,505

1,747

17.7

18.0

111.5

130.0

14.1

12.1

2.9

2.4

22.8

21.7

1.5

1.2

Hero Motocorp

Buy

1,802

2,428

35,991

26,097

29,963

15.0

15.3

139.5

151.8

12.9

11.9

6.1

4.6

54.6

44.3

1.1

1.0

JK Tyre

Buy

114

135

469

7,517

8,329

6.1

6.3

26.2

38.5

4.4

3.0

0.6

0.5

13.4

17.2

0.3

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate

765

879

46,976

36,536

41,650

11.6

11.5

49.3

54.9

15.5

13.9

3.2

2.7

22.1

21.1

1.0

0.9

1,210

34,947

41,796

47,953

7.6

8.4

67.1

87.6

18.0

13.8

2.1

1.8

12.1

14.1

0.6

0.5

200

228

7,836

24,173

27,055

6.6

7.1

11.7

15.2

17.1

13.1

3.5

2.9

22.4

24.2

0.5

0.4

Buy

27

34

161

1,230

1,378

8.8

8.6

4.5

5.7

6.0

4.7

0.6

0.5

9.8

11.8

0.4

0.3

Tata Motors

Buy

246

292

65,482 195,096 219,428

12.8

12.8

39.0

43.9

6.3

5.6

1.8

1.4

32.6

28.2

0.4

0.3

TVS Motor

Accumulate

38

43

1,793

7,545

8,301

6.2

6.1

4.9

5.4

7.7

7.0

1.4

1.2

18.8

18.2

0.2

0.2

Maruti

Neutral

Motherson Sumi

Accumulate

Subros

Capital Goods
ABB*

Sell

732

498

15,502

8,760

10,023

5.5

7.5

12.4

20.7

58.9

35.3

5.6

5.0

10.1

15.2

1.7

1.5

BGR Energy

Neutral

259

1,872

3,669

4,561

11.0

11.0

24.7

29.6

10.5

8.8

1.6

1.4

15.3

16.7

0.5

BHEL

Neutral

203

49,564

47,801

43,757

19.4

19.8

25.7

23.9

7.9

8.5

1.7

1.5

22.7

18.3

1.0

0.8

Blue Star

Neutral

173

1,556

3,047

3,328

5.4

6.9

12.5

16.2

13.9

10.7

3.3

2.7

26.1

28.2

0.6

0.5

Crompton Greaves

Buy

111

128

7,095

12,691

14,096

7.0

8.5

6.5

9.1

17.0

12.1

1.8

1.6

11.1

14.2

0.6

0.5

Jyoti Structures

Buy

37

59

307

2,622

2,801

10.3

10.7

8.7

13.1

4.3

2.9

0.4

0.4

10.3

14.0

0.3

0.3

KEC International

Buy

55

69

1,414

6,858

7,431

7.5

8.3

9.0

11.5

6.1

4.8

1.1

0.9

26.9

27.2

0.3

0.3

LMW

Neutral

2,055

2,314

2,369

2,727

11.7

11.7

143.4

166.0

14.3

12.4

2.4

2.2

17.4

18.4

0.5

0.4

Thermax

Neutral

492

5,858

5,514

5,559

8.9

9.6

26.9

28.4

18.3

17.3

3.2

2.8

18.4

17.1

1.0

1.0

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Market Outlook
September 11, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Cement
ACC

Neutral

1,341

25,176

11,220

12,896

20.0

20.6

71.1

81.2

18.9

16.5

3.3

3.0

18.1

19.0

1.9

1.6

Ambuja Cements

Neutral

190

29,219

10,205

11,659

24.6

24.2

10.8

12.0

17.5

15.8

3.7

3.3

19.7

19.8

2.5

2.1

India Cements

Neutral

84

2,573

4,393

4,914

19.3

19.5

10.1

12.7

8.3

6.6

0.7

0.7

8.8

10.6

1.0

0.9

J K Lakshmi Cements

Neutral

95

1,159

1,964

2,278

19.5

20.4

16.3

17.9

5.8

5.3

0.8

0.7

14.7

14.6

0.7

1.1

Madras Cements

Neutral

184

4,379

3,608

3,928

27.4

26.9

15.6

18.1

11.8

10.2

1.9

1.6

16.8

16.9

1.9

1.6

Shree Cements

Neutral

3,425

11,931

5,767

6,337

28.4

26.9

216.9

253.3

15.8

13.5

3.5

2.9

24.7

23.4

1.5

1.2

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

1,739

47,666

20,167

22,752

21.7

23.0

90.8

107.8

19.2

16.1

3.2

2.8

17.9

18.3

2.3

2.1

259

304

1,366

2,029

2,310

22.4

22.4

27.1

31.7

9.6

8.2

1.2

1.0

13.1

13.4

1.9

2.2

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

14

257

2,262

2,522

6.7

7.5

1.5

2.7

9.4

5.2

0.4

0.4

4.4

7.5

0.4

0.4

Hind. Const.

Neutral

16

971

4,239

4,522

9.9

11.2

(2.3)

(1.0)

(7.1)

(16.6)

0.9

1.0

(11.4)

(5.6)

1.1

1.2

IRB Infra

Buy

129

166

4,276

3,964

4,582

42.3

40.2

15.5

16.9

8.3

7.6

1.3

1.1

16.6

15.8

2.6

2.5

ITNL

Buy

162

232

3,140

6,840

7,767

26.4

26.1

24.4

28.4

6.6

5.7

1.0

0.9

16.0

16.2

2.6

2.8

IVRCL Infra

Buy

39

51

1,206

5,510

6,722

8.8

9.0

2.5

4.6

15.5

8.6

0.5

0.5

3.4

5.8

0.7

0.7

Jaiprakash Asso.

Buy

67

91

14,343

15,259

17,502

25.7

24.7

4.2

5.0

15.9

13.5

1.3

1.2

8.5

9.3

2.3

2.0

Larsen & Toubro

Accumulate

1,372

1,568

84,215

60,474

69,091

12.1

11.5

79.7

85.4

17.2

16.1

2.9

2.6

16.3

15.1

1.5

1.4

Madhucon Proj

Buy

38

56

278

2,206

2,502

10.7

10.7

4.6

4.7

8.1

8.1

0.4

0.4

5.2

5.0

0.7

0.7

Nagarjuna Const.

Buy

33

45

849

5,804

6,513

8.0

8.6

3.0

3.5

10.9

9.5

0.4

0.3

3.2

3.6

0.6

0.6

Patel Engg.

Neutral

67

468

3,609

3,836

13.1

13.1

14.0

14.6

4.8

4.6

0.3

0.3

6.3

6.1

1.0

1.0

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

46

1,541

11,892

13,116

8.9

8.9

1.7

3.1

27.4

15.0

0.5

0.5

1.9

3.4

0.5

0.5

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

133

182

2,002

2,506

3,147

10.3

10.7

7.5

10.4

17.7

12.8

2.2

1.9

13.5

16.0

1.0

0.8

Simplex Infra

Buy

201

265

996

6,732

7,837

8.1

8.4

23.5

29.4

8.6

6.8

0.8

0.7

9.6

11.0

0.5

0.4

Allahabad Bank

Neutral

123

6,153

7,233

8,579

3.1

3.3

40.5

40.9

3.0

3.0

0.6

0.5

19.4

17.0

Andhra Bank

Neutral

92

5,168

4,959

5,787

3.1

3.1

22.7

24.5

4.1

3.8

0.7

0.6

16.0

15.3

Axis Bank

Buy

979

1,373

40,553

15,961

19,583

3.1

3.2

117.3

143.1

8.3

6.8

1.6

1.3

20.1

20.8

Bank of Baroda

Buy

633

829

24,777

15,830

19,300

2.6

2.7

118.9

147.1

5.3

4.3

0.8

0.7

16.7

18.0

Bank of India

Buy

261

323

14,993

13,159

15,851

2.4

2.5

61.1

71.1

4.3

3.7

0.7

0.6

16.6

17.0

Bank of Maharashtra

Neutral

Canara Bank

Buy

Central Bank

Neutral

Financials

www.angelbroking.com

44

2,603

3,471

3,889

3.1

3.1

9.0

11.5

4.9

3.9

0.6

0.6

13.7

15.5

323

421

14,304

11,334

13,629

2.2

2.3

75.4

85.1

4.3

3.8

0.7

0.6

15.2

15.3

64

4,730

7,181

8,365

2.5

2.7

16.3

21.8

3.9

3.0

0.7

0.6

12.7

15.1

Market Outlook
September 11, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Financials
Corporation Bank

Buy

374

436

5,541

5,067

5,998

2.1

2.3

105.6

111.0

3.5

3.4

0.6

0.5

17.6

16.3

Dena Bank

Buy

89

107

3,098

3,177

3,595

2.8

2.8

25.2

25.4

3.5

3.5

0.6

0.5

18.9

16.4

Federal Bank

Accumulate

406

458

6,941

2,697

3,171

3.4

3.4

47.9

58.0

8.5

7.0

1.1

1.0

13.6

14.7

HDFC

Neutral

731

112,253

7,340

8,805

3.5

3.5

31.5

37.8

23.2

19.3

4.6

4.1

34.8

32.2

HDFC Bank

Neutral

591

139,553

21,936

27,454

4.4

4.4

28.7

36.0

20.6

16.4

4.0

3.3

20.7

22.0

ICICI Bank

Buy

941

1,169

108,161

22,356

27,157

2.9

3.0

68.7

82.0

13.7

11.5

1.7

1.5

14.2

15.5

IDBI Bank

Accumulate

88

101

11,288

7,952

9,876

1.9

2.2

18.5

23.6

4.8

3.7

0.6

0.6

12.8

14.7

Indian Bank

Buy

163

190

7,022

6,294

7,191

3.4

3.4

40.6

44.9

4.0

3.6

0.7

0.6

18.1

17.4

IOB

Buy

68

80

5,412

7,473

8,732

2.5

2.5

16.7

22.6

4.1

3.0

0.5

0.4

11.8

14.4

J & K Bank

Accumulate

899

1,026

4,356

2,625

2,921

3.6

3.5

194.4

191.9

4.6

4.7

0.9

0.8

21.2

18.0

LIC Housing Finance

Accumulate

247

279

12,463

1,867

2,338

2.4

2.4

21.1

28.5

11.7

8.7

1.9

1.6

17.5

20.4

Oriental Bank

Buy

230

278

6,699

6,518

7,458

2.8

2.9

61.3

65.1

3.8

3.5

0.6

0.5

15.2

14.3

Punjab Natl.Bank

Buy

685

950

23,241

20,116

23,625

3.3

3.4

152.8

173.9

4.5

3.9

0.8

0.7

18.2

18.0

South Ind.Bank

Buy

22

25

2,475

1,514

1,717

2.8

2.7

4.0

4.2

5.5

5.2

1.1

0.9

20.5

18.5

St Bk of India

Buy

1,895

2,270

127,193

64,470

75,940

3.5

3.5

224.4

258.7

8.5

7.3

1.4

1.2

17.6

17.8

Syndicate Bank

Buy

95

119

5,731

6,840

7,996

2.9

3.0

25.7

29.2

3.7

3.3

0.6

0.5

17.9

17.8

UCO Bank

Neutral

66

4,357

5,488

6,338

2.4

2.5

17.3

17.7

3.8

3.7

0.7

0.7

17.0

15.3

Union Bank

Buy

159

230

8,770

10,299

12,227

2.9

3.0

42.1

49.3

3.8

3.2

0.7

0.6

16.7

17.1

United Bank

Buy

53

79

1,926

3,634

4,194

2.8

2.9

18.2

23.0

2.9

2.3

0.4

0.4

15.0

16.7

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

48

2,376

2,579

3,028

2.1

2.3

8.8

11.6

5.4

4.2

0.6

0.6

11.1

13.3

Yes Bank

Buy

337

453

11,981

3,255

4,228

2.8

3.0

34.2

42.7

9.9

7.9

2.1

1.7

23.3

23.8

3,767

36,132

11,198

13,184

16.3

16.3

121.0

144.8

31.1

26.0

10.4

8.2

37.4

35.3

3.2

2.7

497

584

5,942

5,835

6,824

5.7

6.0

20.7

25.4

24.0

19.6

9.5

7.3

43.1

41.9

0.9

0.8

1,231

16,738

3,018

3,429

20.9

22.3

34.6

41.0

35.6

30.0

32.8

24.9

99.5

94.1

5.4

4.7

FMCG
Asian Paints

Neutral

Britannia

Buy

Colgate

Neutral

Dabur India

Neutral

129

22,527

6,124

7,030

17.0

16.8

4.5

5.2

28.9

25.0

11.9

9.5

43.2

41.5

3.7

3.2

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

2,956

12,430

3,124

3,663

17.1

17.6

104.5

123.8

28.3

23.9

8.8

7.1

34.4

32.8

3.6

3.0

Godrej Consumer

Neutral

663

22,576

6,097

7,233

18.4

18.6

21.9

26.5

30.3

25.1

6.7

5.6

25.5

25.4

3.9

3.2

HUL

Neutral

540

116,742

25,350

28,974

13.9

13.9

14.3

16.5

37.9

32.8

22.6

17.4

70.9

59.8

4.4

3.8

ITC

Neutral

263

206,685

29,513

33,885

35.4

35.8

9.3

10.8

28.4

24.4

9.4

7.8

35.6

35.0

6.7

5.8

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
September 11, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FMCG
Marico

Neutral

207

13,323

4,840

5,643

13.1

13.1

6.8

8.5

30.5

24.5

8.4

6.4

31.4

29.7

2.8

2.3

Nestle*

Neutral

4,644

44,780

8,610

10,174

20.9

21.2

114.8

139.8

40.5

33.2

24.4

17.0

71.2

60.3

5.3

4.3

Tata Global

Neutral

137

8,450

7,207

7,927

9.7

10.0

6.6

7.9

20.6

17.4

2.1

2.0

8.6

9.5

1.1

1.0

HCL Tech

Neutral

574

39,842

24,400

27,049

18.6

17.5

41.1

45.0

14.0

12.8

3.1

2.7

22.7

21.1

1.6

1.4

Hexaware

Neutral

134

3,965

1,947

2,161

22.0

21.4

11.4

12.1

11.8

11.0

3.0

2.6

26.4

24.0

1.7

1.5

Infosys

Neutral

2,496

143,322

39,151

41,743

31.6

31.9

161.9

174.5

15.4

14.3

3.7

3.2

23.8

22.1

3.1

2.8

Infotech Enterprises

Neutral

186

2,073

1,889

2,065

18.0

17.5

18.0

19.7

10.3

9.5

1.5

1.3

14.5

13.7

0.7

0.6

KPIT Cummins

Reduce

137

124

2,438

2,149

2,331

15.6

14.8

10.7

11.2

12.7

12.2

2.7

2.2

20.6

17.8

1.1

1.0

Mahindra Satyam

Neutral

99

11,621

7,574

8,062

19.6

18.4

9.5

9.7

10.4

10.2

1.7

1.4

16.1

14.1

1.1

1.0

Mindtree

Neutral

721

2,943

2,341

2,513

18.6

17.1

66.5

70.8

10.8

10.2

2.4

1.9

22.3

19.3

1.1

0.9

Mphasis

Neutral

402

8,438

5,713

6,005

18.0

16.8

36.9

37.1

10.9

10.8

1.6

1.4

14.3

12.6

1.0

0.9

NIIT

Buy

30

40

495

1,162

1,304

14.8

15.1

7.1

8.8

4.2

3.4

0.7

0.6

16.7

18.4

0.3

0.2

Persistent

Neutral

393

1,574

1,193

1,278

25.6

24.3

42.6

44.3

9.2

8.9

1.6

1.4

17.2

15.5

1.0

0.8

TCS

Neutral

1,383

270,703

61,046

67,507

29.3

29.1

67.3

72.4

20.6

19.1

6.6

5.4

31.9

28.3

4.2

3.8

Tech Mahindra

Accumulate

853

900

10,886

6,553

7,331

18.1

17.1

92.5

100.7

9.2

8.5

2.2

1.8

23.6

20.7

1.7

1.4

Wipro

Accumulate

381

420

93,690

43,492

48,332

19.4

19.3

25.1

28.0

15.2

13.6

2.8

2.5

18.6

18.0

1.8

1.5

D B Corp

Buy

195

236

3,578

1,597

1,785

22.9

24.2

11.1

13.9

17.5

14.0

3.3

2.9

20.2

22.1

2.1

1.9

HT Media

Buy

88

113

2,062

2,111

2,263

15.2

15.2

7.3

8.1

12.0

10.8

1.3

1.2

11.2

11.2

0.5

0.4

Jagran Prakashan

Buy

90

112

2,853

1,506

1,687

22.5

23.2

6.2

7.0

14.5

12.9

3.5

3.1

25.0

25.7

2.1

1.9

PVR

Neutral

181

470

625

732

17.4

17.1

13.3

15.6

13.6

11.6

1.5

1.3

13.2

13.8

1.2

1.0

Sun TV Network

Neutral

313

12,333

1,981

2,239

77.0

76.7

18.6

21.3

16.9

14.7

4.2

3.7

27.1

27.5

5.7

4.9

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

465

9,865

11,979

14,584

31.6

31.0

49.2

61.4

9.4

7.6

1.2

1.1

14.1

15.2

2.8

2.3

Coal India

Accumulate

360

385

227,610

69,808

75,550

27.4

27.4

26.0

28.3

13.8

12.8

4.0

3.3

32.5

28.1

2.3

2.0

Electrosteel Castings

Buy

18

23

623

1,984

2,074

11.2

12.6

2.5

2.9

7.3

6.3

0.3

0.1

5.1

5.7

0.5

0.5

Hind. Zinc

Accumulate

131

144

55,352

12,446

13,538

52.3

52.9

14.3

15.5

9.2

8.4

1.7

1.5

20.5

18.9

2.6

2.0

Hindalco

Neutral

107

20,457

84,855

92,446

8.7

9.3

13.2

16.2

8.1

6.6

0.6

0.6

7.8

8.9

0.6

0.6

JSW Steel

Neutral

679

15,151

38,740

41,459

17.3

17.0

79.9

89.4

8.5

7.6

0.8

0.8

10.4

10.6

0.8

0.8

MOIL

Neutral

261

4,376

918

993

50.7

50.9

24.5

26.1

10.6

10.0

1.6

1.5

16.0

15.5

2.4

2.1

Monnet Ispat

Buy

293

379

1,883

2,511

3,303

23.8

26.0

46.3

57.3

6.3

5.1

0.7

0.6

12.4

13.7

1.7

1.2

IT

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
September 11, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )
FY13E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Metals & Mining


Nalco

Reduce

NMDC

Accumulate

53

48

13,543

7,401

7,841

16.7

19.2

3.4

4.1

15.4

12.8

1.1

1.1

7.4

8.4

1.4

1.3

188

214

74,398

12,934

14,266

79.4

80.1

21.1

23.4

8.9

8.0

2.4

1.9

29.6

26.5

3.9

3.3

SAIL
Sesa Goa

Neutral

78

32,342

47,252

60,351

14.2

14.8

9.6

11.7

8.2

6.7

0.7

0.7

9.4

10.6

1.1

0.9

Neutral

170

14,779

7,704

8,034

33.6

34.6

42.0

43.1

4.1

4.0

0.8

0.7

22.3

19.2

2.2

2.1

Sterlite Inds

Neutral

98

33,035

41,680

45,382

24.2

23.2

16.3

16.9

6.1

5.8

0.7

0.6

11.3

10.7

0.8

0.7

Tata Steel

Buy

374

481

36,304 145,799 150,431

10.3

11.2

48.6

63.3

7.7

5.9

0.8

0.7

10.5

12.4

0.5

0.5

Sarda

Buy

117

148

418

1,251

1,321

22.7

23.4

33.0

37.1

3.5

3.1

0.5

0.4

15.1

14.8

0.7

0.6

Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas

Buy

49

73

654

2,694

2,906

14.6

16.6

16.4

20.8

3.0

2.3

0.3

0.3

11.4

12.8

0.5

0.3

Buy

114

161

361

2,341

2,425

15.6

17.3

33.3

43.2

3.4

2.6

0.4

0.3

13.2

14.4

0.5

0.5

Cairn India

Accumulate

337

380

64,324

16,605

17,258

75.4

71.7

57.0

54.9

5.9

6.1

1.1

0.9

20.2

16.3

2.9

2.3

GAIL

Neutral

363

46,103

50,176

55,815

15.5

15.8

35.4

36.5

10.3

10.0

1.8

1.6

18.9

17.0

0.6

0.5

ONGC

Accumulate

277

312

236,559 147,139 154,821

33.9

33.7

30.7

32.3

9.0

8.6

1.6

1.4

18.3

17.2

1.3

1.2

Reliance Industries

Neutral

795

260,474 362,700 380,031

7.9

8.0

61.5

64.3

12.9

12.4

1.3

1.2

10.3

9.9

0.7

0.7

Gujarat Gas

Neutral

296

3,864

11.5

11.3

19.2

22.1

15.5

13.4

4.1

3.7

28.7

29.0

1.1

0.9

Indraprastha Gas

Neutral

241

3,379

3,040

3,135

24.3

26.7

24.8

27.9

9.7

8.7

2.3

1.9

25.5

23.6

1.2

1.0

Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals

Accumulate

158

176

11,843

29,145

33,736

6.6

6.6

14.2

16.0

11.1

9.9

2.7

2.2

26.9

24.4

0.4

0.4

76

4,254

1,041

939

91.8

91.9

8.5

7.4

8.9

10.2

1.5

1.4

18.1

14.0

5.0

5.5

Alembic Pharma

Buy

75

91

1,410

1,624

1,855

14.2

15.6

6.6

9.1

11.3

8.2

2.8

2.2

27.9

29.2

1.0

0.9

Aurobindo Pharma

Buy

128

156

3,722

5,243

5,767

14.6

14.6

11.8

12.6

10.8

10.2

1.4

1.2

17.9

16.4

1.2

1.0

Aventis*

Neutral

2,170

4,998

1,482

1,682

15.5

15.5

95.0

104.0

22.8

20.9

4.1

3.2

18.6

17.0

3.2

2.7

Cadila Healthcare

Accumulate

904

953

18,509

6,148

7,386

18.6

19.6

36.0

46.1

25.1

19.6

5.9

4.7

25.8

26.8

3.2

2.6

Cipla

Neutral

391

31,374

8,031

9,130

23.4

22.4

18.4

20.0

21.2

19.5

3.5

3.0

17.8

16.6

3.7

3.2

Dr Reddy's

Neutral

1,734

29,432

10,696

11,662

20.7

21.0

83.7

92.9

20.7

18.7

4.3

3.6

22.4

21.0

3.0

2.7

Dishman Pharma

Neutral

105

851

1,280

1,536

17.8

17.8

9.2

11.3

11.5

9.3

0.9

0.8

7.7

8.5

1.3

1.1

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

2,108

17,852

2,651

2,993

31.7

31.2

76.0

82.4

27.7

25.6

8.0

7.1

20.1

26.3

5.9

5.2

Indoco Remedies

Buy

69

92

634

685

837

15.2

15.2

7.4

8.9

9.3

7.7

1.4

1.2

16.4

17.0

1.1

0.9

Ipca labs

Accumulate

441

475

5,557

2,850

3,474

20.7

20.7

29.2

36.6

15.1

12.0

3.6

2.8

26.1

26.1

2.1

1.7

Lupin

Neutral

617

27,583

8,426

10,082

19.7

20.0

27.4

32.4

22.5

19.1

5.5

4.4

26.0

24.7

3.3

2.7

Orchid Chemicals

Neutral

111

785

1,667

1,835

13.9

13.9

11.4

13.3

9.8

8.4

0.6

0.6

6.6

7.3

0.9

0.8

Neutral

www.angelbroking.com

3,801

3,267

Market Outlook
September 11, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Pharmaceuticals
Ranbaxy*

Neutral

553

23,341

12,046

11,980

18.0

15.8

35.7

29.8

15.5

18.6

6.0

4.8

39.1

28.9

2.0

1.9

Sun Pharma

Neutral

666

68,879

9,752

12,134

41.6

41.6

26.0

28.2

25.6

23.6

4.8

4.1

20.3

18.8

6.3

4.9

CESC

Accumulate

306

342

3,825

5,218

5,644

24.2

23.8

44.6

47.6

6.9

6.4

0.7

0.7

11.0

10.6

1.5

1.5

GIPCL

Buy

NTPC

Neutral

Power
67

77

1,007

1,557

1,573

29.3

28.7

10.8

11.0

6.2

6.1

0.6

0.6

10.8

10.2

1.1

0.9

171

141,204

74,111

85,789

23.2

23.6

12.4

14.0

13.9

12.2

1.7

1.6

13.0

13.5

2.6

2.4

Real Estate
Anant Raj

Buy

DLF

Neutral

44

78

1,300

657

875

52.0

56.1

8.4

12.7

5.2

3.5

0.3

0.3

6.3

8.9

3.2

2.4

204

34,675

9,878

12,033

44.7

46.1

9.6

13.4

21.3

15.2

1.4

1.3

6.4

8.7

6.0

HDIL

Buy

4.9

72

115

3,011

2,441

3,344

55.1

48.2

22.7

26.6

3.2

2.7

0.3

0.2

8.8

9.4

3.1

MLIFE

2.3

Accumulate

349

396

1,426

813

901

26.2

26.6

32.0

37.1

10.9

9.4

1.1

1.0

10.4

11.0

2.1

1.8

Bharti Airtel

Neutral

255

96,666

79,542

87,535

30.9

32.2

10.3

15.0

24.8

16.9

1.8

1.6

7.2

9.6

1.9

1.6

Idea Cellular

Neutral

79

26,004

22,988

25,333

26.4

26.9

3.5

4.9

22.7

16.1

1.8

1.6

8.1

10.2

1.5

1.3

Rcom

Neutral

51

10,434

21,553

22,494

31.0

30.7

3.5

4.5

14.5

11.4

0.3

0.3

1.9

2.4

2.0

1.8

Abbott India

Neutral

1,598

3,396

1,602

1,833

10.4

11.8

54.7

71.7

29.2

22.3

5.5

4.7

20.0

22.7

1.9

1.6

Bajaj Electricals

Buy

172

234

1,714

3,569

4,172

8.1

8.8

16.3

21.3

10.6

8.1

2.2

1.8

21.7

24.6

0.5

0.4

Cera Sanitaryware

Neutral

357

451

396

470

16.7

16.5

28.0

33.2

12.7

10.7

2.6

2.1

23.8

23.1

1.3

1.1

Cravatex

Buy

415

682

107

289

340

5.2

6.0

40.7

56.8

10.2

7.3

2.6

1.9

25.2

26.5

0.5

0.4

CRISIL

Neutral

933

6,547

982

1,136

34.3

34.3

34.3

40.0

27.2

23.3

12.3

9.8

50.9

46.9

6.2

5.2

Finolex Cables

Buy

38

61

588

2,334

2,687

8.8

9.3

7.6

10.2

5.0

3.8

0.7

0.6

13.7

16.1

0.2

0.1

Force Motors

Buy

428

591

558

2,214

2,765

4.5

5.4

39.5

73.9

10.8

5.8

0.5

0.4

4.4

7.6

0.1

0.1

Goodyear India

Neutral

322

744

1,543

1,654

6.5

7.3

24.8

31.1

13.0

10.4

2.1

1.8

17.1

19.0

0.3

0.2

Graphite India

Buy

79

113

1,542

2,158

2,406

18.1

18.9

12.4

14.0

6.4

5.6

0.9

0.8

14.0

14.3

0.8

0.7

Greenply Industries

Buy

187

309

451

1,925

2,235

10.6

10.9

29.6

44.1

6.3

4.2

1.0

0.8

16.8

21.0

0.5

0.4

Hitachi

Accumulate

122

130

279

868

977

3.9

6.6

2.7

10.9

44.4

11.2

1.6

1.4

3.7

13.6

0.4

0.3

Honeywell Automation

Buy

2,453

2,842

2,168

1,847

2,162

4.3

7.3

61.0

120.0

40.2

20.4

3.2

2.7

9.3

16.3

1.1

0.9

Styrolution ABS India

Buy

600

744

1,055

1,056

1,081

8.1

10.6

33.8

46.5

17.7

12.9

2.5

2.1

14.7

17.5

0.9

0.8

ITD Cementation

Accumulate

226

241

260

1,451

1,669

12.3

12.4

32.4

41.5

7.0

5.5

0.6

0.6

9.4

10.9

0.6

0.6

Jyothy Laboratories

Neutral

158

2,543

1,248

1,468

9.8

10.4

5.9

7.2

26.6

22.0

3.8

3.5

15.0

16.6

2.4

2.0

MCX

Buy

1,180

1,440

6,017

553

624

65.3

66.3

62.5

72.0

18.9

16.4

5.2

4.5

27.5

27.4

7.9

6.5

MRF

Buy

10,248

12,884

4,346

11,804

12,727

10.4

10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3

7.9

7.2

1.5

1.3

21.3

19.4

0.5

0.5

Telecom

zOthers

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
September 11, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

zOthers
Page Industries

Neutral

3,027

3,376

887

1,108

18.3

18.6

95.0

120.9

31.9

25.0

16.6

13.5

57.4

59.5

3.9

3.1

Relaxo Footwears

Neutral

672

807

1,019

1,208

12.3

13.0

51.0

68.4

13.2

9.8

3.5

2.6

30.3

30.2

1.0

0.8

Sintex Industries

Buy

57

79

1,556

4,751

5,189

16.3

16.6

13.6

15.8

4.2

3.6

0.6

0.5

12.9

13.2

0.7

0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills

Buy

295

392

276

1,042

1,173

12.4

12.5

66.3

78.5

4.5

3.8

0.9

0.7

21.1

20.8

0.5

0.4

S. Kumars Nationwide

Buy

18

24

528

7,134

7,985

19.7

19.4

12.2

14.1

1.5

1.3

0.2

0.1

11.3

11.5

0.6

0.6

SpiceJet

Buy

30

43

1,455

5,720

6,599

5.3

6.8

3.6

5.4

8.3

5.6

12.1

3.8

0.4

0.3

TAJ GVK

Buy

67

108

418

300

319

35.8

36.2

7.9

9.1

8.4

7.3

1.1

1.0

13.9

14.4

1.7

1.5

Tata Sponge Iron

Buy

299

424

460

787

837

16.2

17.5

58.5

66.9

5.1

4.5

0.7

0.6

14.9

15.1

0.2

0.1

TVS Srichakra

Accumulate

319

335

244

1,476

1,643

7.1

8.2

32.3

55.8

9.9

5.7

1.6

1.3

16.6

24.8

0.4

0.3

United Spirits

Neutral

952

12,450

10,289

11,421

13.5

14.3

31.0

42.9

30.7

22.2

2.4

2.2

8.1

10.3

1.9

1.7

Vesuvius India

Neutral

350

710

560

611

16.1

17.0

24.7

28.8

14.2

12.2

2.1

1.9

15.8

16.2

1.2

1.0

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on September 10, 2012

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
September 11, 2012

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