Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
September 17, 2012
Dealers Diary
Domestic Indices
The Indian market is expected to open in green tracking the positive opening in
most of the Asian markets.
The major averages ended in positive territory, reaching new multi-year highs. The
Dow rose by 2.2%, while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 advanced by 1.5% and
1.9%, respectively. The markets continued to benefit from a positive reaction to the
Federal Reserve's announcement of additional quantitative easing. Considerable
strength was also visible among housing stocks, as reflected by the 2.7% gain
posted by the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index.
Also the slurry of reforms unleashed by the Indian government like FDI approval
and Divestments in MMTC, Oil India, NALCO and Hindustan Copper is expected
to keep the market positive in the near term. Meanwhile the Indian markets will be
closely tracking the RBI monetary policy to be held today.
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
2.5
443.1 18,464
Nifty
2.6
142.3
5,578
MID CAP
0.9
54.7
6,245
SMALL CAP
0.5
29.6
6,623
BSE HC
(1.2)
(94.4)
7,522
BSE PSU
1.0
69.8
7,180
BANKEX
4.2
485.1 12,189
AUTO
2.9
279.4
METAL
4.3
422.7 10,370
OIL & GAS
2.9
243.8
8,717
BSE IT
1.4
84.7
6,204
(Pts)
(Close)
Global Indices
Chg (%)
9,945
Dow Jones
0.4
53.5 13,593
NASDAQ
0.9
28.1
3,184
FTSE
1.6
95.6
5,916
The trend deciding level for the day is 18,020 / 5,435 levels. If Nifty trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 18,064 18,106 / 5,448 5,460 levels. However, if Nifty trades below
18,020 / 5,435 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
17,977 17,934 / 5,422 5,409 levels.
Nikkei
1.8
164.2
9,159
Hang Seng
2.9
582.2 20,630
Straits Times
1.3
40.3
3,070
Shanghai Com
0.6
13.5
2,124
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
Indian ADRs
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
SENSEX
18,202
18,333
18,416
18,547
18,630
INFY
1.7
0.8
$48.2
NIFTY
5,504
5,541
5,564
5,601
5,623
WIT
3.7
0.3
$9.0
IBN
5.0
1.8
$38.2
HDB
2.7
1.0
$37.1
Markets Today
News Analysis
WPI inflation for the month of August inches up to 7.6%

Reforms Unleashed
Interministerial Panel recommends cancelation of a coal block of JSW Steel
Tata Sponge Iron coal block deallocated
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,497
806
Declines
1,420
678
141
107
Unchanged
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (September 12, 2012)

Volumes (` cr)
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
1,993
1,585
408
3,078
58,951
BSE
2,746
275
428
(153)
(278)
(8,777)
NSE
14,847
MFs
FII Derivatives (September 14, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
3,887
2,984
903
11,926
Stock Futures
2,615
2,117
499
26,693
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
372
8.8
Glenmark Pharma
Hindalco Inds
118
8.0
DLF
217
7.5
IVRCL Ltd
42
Essar Oil
52
Jindal Steel
www.angelbroking.com
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
416
(4.3)
Lupin
575
(4.0)
Opto Circuits
133
(3.6)
7.5
Marico
198
(3.3)
7.5
United Brewries
606
(2.9)
Market Outlook
September 17, 2012
WPI inflation for the month of August inches up to 7.6%

Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation for the month of August 2012 expectedly
inched up to 7.55% as compared to 6.87% in July 2012, remaining sticky despite
a high base of 9.78% in the corresponding period in 2011. On a month-onmonth (m-o-m) basis, headline WPI inflation grew steeply at 1.1% in August as
compared to 0.1% during July 2012 over the previous month. The rise in headline
inflation is driven by an increase in fuel and power prices and inflation in
manufactured products.
Inflation in Primary Articles has marginally declined to 10.08% during the month
as compared to 10.39% in July 2012 due to moderation in food inflation. Inflation
in food articles at 9.14%, marked a decline below the 10%-level after five months.
While inflation in Food Grains continued to remain high at 15.09%, prices of fruits
and vegetables decelerated to 5.38% in August as compared to 10.51% in July
2012. Inflation in Non-Food Articles and Minerals marked an increase to 13.75%
and 9.74% respectively.
Fuel and Power inflation surged to 8.32% in August 2012 after easing
considerably to 5.98% in July 2012 reflecting the revision of electricity tariff. The
rise in electricity prices increased to 17.69% vis--vis a rise of 4% in July 2012 and
a contraction of 1.32% in the corresponding period in 2011.
Inflation in Manufactured Products, having the highest weightage in the WPI,
inched up for the third straight month to 6.14% as compared to 5.58% in July
2012. Amongst this category, Manufactured Food Products witnessed a rise in
prices to 9.01% during the month led by an increase in sugar and edible oil prices.
Rise in inflation of manufactured products has fuelled concern over core inflation
in the economy since it has edged beyond the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)s
comfort level of 5%.
Although the hike in diesel and LPG prices is positive on the policy reform front
since it will aid the government to narrow the fiscal deficit by reducing its subsidy
burden to some extent; the move is likely to have an adverse impact on inflation.
The rise in diesel and LPG prices is likely to be reflected in WPI inflation directly as
well as indirectly on account of the pass-through effect in generalized inflation. In
addition, we expect that global commodity prices, which are already high, will
continue rising following positive global cues, namely the decision by the European
Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve on open-ended purchase of bonds to
support recovery of growth.
We believe that these developments are likely to reduce headroom for the RBI to
ease policy rates in its Mid Quarter Review of the Monetary Policy on September
17, 2012 since upside risks to inflation continue to persist in the near-term.
Reforms Unleashed
Following the hike in diesel and LPG prices, Indian government has unleashed a
slurry of reforms to help revive the investment sentiment and to bolster economic
growth. Indian Cabinet has a) amended the existing policy norms for FDI in single
brand retail b) approved - FDI in multi-brand retail upto 51%, FDI in civil aviation
upto 49%, FDI in broadcasting upto 74%, FDI in power trading exchanges upto
49% and c) approved Divestments in MMTC, Oil India, NALCO and Hindustan
Copper.
Market Outlook
September 17, 2012
Existing policy norms for FDI in single brand retail tweaked

CCEA has modified the existing policy norms for FDI in single brand retail,
wherein if FDI is beyond 51%, the earlier requirement of mandatory 30%
sourcing from Indian MSMEs stands tweaked to preferable in all sectors/goods
where it is feasible. However, 30% domestic sourcing requirement is still
mandatory.
Thus, the amended condition relating to sourcing of 30%, of the value of goods
purchased, being done from India, preferably from MSMEs, in all sectors, where
feasible, is expected to benefit Indian producers (including the Indian handicrafts
sector) and is expected to integrate them to the domestic and global markets.
Skill integration with craftsmen abroad is likely to help develop synergies with
international brands and help generate more employment and aid higher income
generation. This would also lead to up-gradation of technology, which, in turn,
would have a further multiplier effect on the economy.
FDI in multi-brand Retail

Indian Cabinet has permitted FDI upto 51% in multi brand retail, subject to certain
specified conditions which are reproduced below.
Retail outlets to be set up only in those States which have agreed or agree
in future to allow FDI.
Currently Nine states and two union territories (majorly governed by ruling
UPA) have expressed interest to allow multi brand retail in their states. Those
States and Union territories are Delhi, Assam, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh,
Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Manipur, J&K, Daman & Diu and Dadra &
Nagar Haveli.
Retail sales outlets may be set up only in cities with a population of more than
10lakh (as per 2011 Census). In States/ Union Territories not having cities
with population of more than 10lakh (as per 2011 Census), retail sales outlets
may be set up in the cities of their choice, preferably the largest city.
As per media reports, 53 cities have population above 10lakhs (as per 2011
census) and more than 40 cities have population between 5 to 10 lakhs.
Atleast 50% of total FDI brought in shall be invested in `backend

infrastructure` within three years of the induction of FDI. Back-end
infrastructure will include capex towards setting up infrastructure in
processing, manufacturing, distribution, design improvement, quality control,
packaging, logistics, storage, ware-house, agriculture market produce etc.
However, expenditure on land cost and rentals, if any, will not be counted for
purposes of backend infrastructure.
This condition will aid farmers to obtain remunerative price for their produce
as post harvest losses would be significantly reduced due to improvement in
the back-end infrastructure.
Atleast 30%, of the value of goods purchased, should be sourced

mandatorily from Indian small industries.
Market Outlook
September 17, 2012
This condition would benefit Indian small producers and is expected to enable
their integration with the global retail chains.
Overall, FDI in multi brand retail is expected to attract investment in back-end
infrastructure, which is a felt need across the country. Additionally, opening up of
FDI in multi brand retail, will attract strategic investments/partnerships in
companies like Pantaloon Retail, Shopper Stop, Trent (operating Star Bazaar and
Westside), CESC (operating Spencers), Reliance Industries (Reliance Retail), Bharti
Group (operating Easyday), Aditya Birla Retail (operating More), Landmark
group (operating Lifestyle stores), Raheja Groups (Globus). Moreover, it is
expected to aid the sales growth of Indian FMCG companies.
FDI in Civil Aviation

Foreign airlines are now allowed to make foreign investment in companies
operating in Indian civil aviation space, under the Govt. approval route, up to the
limit of 49%. The limit will subsume both FDI and FII investment. Earlier foreign
investors were only allowed to invest up to 49% in an airline company, that too
with a rider that the investor is in no way related to the aviation business.
As an additional condition, the investee company must also ensure that its
Chairman and at least two-thirds of directors are Indian citizens and after the
investment, Indian nationals retain substantial ownership and effective control of
the company.
FDI from foreign airlines is expected to result in higher foreign investment flows,
necessary at present juncture, in order to strengthen the sector. It is also expected
to lead to higher service standards and induction of international best practices in
the sector. In our view, out of the companies operating in the Indian civil aviation
space, those operating with controlled leverage are lucratively placed relatively, to
attract foreign investment. Being present in the high-growth, low-cost segment and
having the lowest debt compared to peers make FDI investment in SpiceJet more
lucrative than others. We recommend Buy on SpiceJet with a target price of `43.
FDI in Broadcasting
CCEA has raised foreign investment limit (both FDI and FII taken together) from
49% to 74% in DTH and Cable Networks (including MSOs). However, foreign
investments upto 49% would be permitted under the automatic route and beyond
49% and upto 74% would be allowed after the Govt. approval via FIPB. Similar
foreign investment limits has been made applicable for Mobile TV, which had no
dispensation in earlier FDI policy regime.
However, for a) up-linking of News & Current Affairs TV channels/FM Radio, b)
Local cable operators c) up-linking of Non-News & Current Affairs TV Channels
and Down-linking of TV Channels and d) Headend in the Sky (HITS), a satellite
multiplex service that provides TV channels for cable operations, the existing limit
of foreign investment (both FDI and FII taken together) upto 26%, upto 49%, upto
100%, upto 74%, respectively has been maintained.
Increased FDI limits is critical for companies operating in DTH and Cable
Networks sub-segments, as it will aid them to tap foreign funds to step up Indias
digitization aspirations. Therefore relaxed FDI limits is expected to augur well for
companies like SunTV, DishTV, Hathway, DEN, WWIL, Tata Teleservices (Tata Sky),
RCom (Reliance Big TV), Bharti Airtel (Airtel DTH).
Market Outlook
September 17, 2012
FDI in Power exchanges

CCEA has permitted foreign investment up to 49% in power trading exchanges,
with FDI limit of 26% and FII limit of 23%. FII investments would be permitted
under the automatic route and FDI would be permitted under the Govt. approval
route. Earlier there was no dispensation for FDI in power exchanges, though 100%
FDI under the automatic route was permitted in power sector (except atomic
energy). This included generation, transmission and distribution of electricity as
well as power trading, subject to the provisions of the Electricity Act, 2003.
FDI in power trading exchanges is expected to strengthen the bourses and
enhance the availability of power, as well as improve its distribution for inclusive
development. It is also expected to lead to higher service standards and induction
of international best practices.
Currently, only two power exchanges are operational in the country, Financial
Technologies promoted Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) and NSE promoted Power
Exchange India (PXIL). IEX has more than 90% share in the total power traded on
exchanges (which as pre media reports is pegged at ~2% of the total generation
in the country). As per media reports, volume growth on these bourses have
remained subdued considering controlled buying amidst power cuts by loss
making discoms and discouragement amongst merchant power producers
considering government's stance of giving coal linkage to power generators with
long term PPAs.
Divestment approved in four PSUs

CCEA has approved divestment in four companies viz. NALCO, MMTC Ltd,
Hindustan Copper Ltd and Oil India Ltd, thereby starting the disinvestment process
that has not yielded anything in the first five months of the financial year.
They approved a disinvestment of 9.6% in Hindustan Copper, 12.2% in Nalco,
9.3% in MMTC and 10% in Oil India, all through Offer for sale mechanism. At last
closing market price, the government is expected to raise `14,255cr from these
companies, nearly half of the `30,000cr, estimated from disinvestment in the
entire financial year.
However, decision on divestment in Neyveli Lignite and IPO of RITES Ltd, which
were also on the agenda, was deferred. As far as Nalco is concerned, since it an
offer for sale, there will no impact on Nalco's financials due to the divestment. We
maintain our Reduce rating on Nalco with a target price of `48.
Exhibit 1: `14,255cr expected to be raised out of proposed divestment

Govt. Holding
Company Name
Current
No of Shares CMP* Amt raised at

After divested (in crs) (in `) CMP (in `crs)
divestment
NALCO
87.2
75.0
31.3 53.9
1,686Offer for Sale
MMTC
99.3
90.0
9.3 777.0
7,249Offer for Sale
Hindustan Copper
99.6
90.0
8.9 269.3
2,389Offer for Sale
Oil India
78.4
68.4
6.0 487.4
2,930Offer for Sale
Total
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note- *CMP as of Septermber14, 2012
Mode of
Divestment
14,255
Market Outlook
September 17, 2012
Interministerial Panel recommends cancelation of a coal

block of JSW Steel
Inter-Ministerial Group has recommended canceling a Gourangdih ABC coal
block which was jointly held by JSW Steel and Himachal EMTA. However, Tata
Steel and Reliance Power will be allowed to retain their coal blocks. For JSW Steel,
we do not expect any meaningful impact on its financials as the block was in very
preliminary stage of getting various approvals. Hence, we maintain our estimates
and our Neutral rating on the stock.
Tata Sponge Iron coal block deallocated

As per media reports, Government cancelled Tata Sponge Irons Radhikapur coal
block which was allotted for captive power consumption in FY2007. The coal block
had estimated reserves of 120mn tonnes. Hence, we reduce our target price to
`377 based on a reduced P/B of 0.8x for FY2014E.
Economic and Political News
Deallocated coal blocks should be given to power projects: Moily

Disinvestment in 4 PSUs allowed, to raise `15,000cr
Fuel price hike unlikely to narrow fiscal gap significantly
Monsoon still active, withdrawal delayed for 7th year
Corporate News
ITC inaugurates `1,200cr Grand Chola hotel

Foreign airlines can own 49% stake in Indian carriers
Biocon arm partners Manipal Education for training manpower in Malaysia
Cement makers may hike price
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
September 17, 2012
Global economic events release calendar

Date
September 17, 2012
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
India
RBI Repo rate
Sep 17
8.00
8.00
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
Sep 17
4.75
4.75
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
September 18, 2012
UK
CPI (YoY)
Sep 17
7.00
7.00
% Change
Aug
2.60
2.50
September 19, 2012
US
Existing home sales
Millions
Aug
4.47
4.56
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Aug
746.00
765.00
US
Building permits
Thousands
Aug
811.00
795.00
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Sep 15
382.00
375.00
Germany
Value
Sep A
48.30
48.50
Value
Sep A
(24.60)
(24.00)
Germany
PMI Services
Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
PMI Manufacturing
Sep A
44.70
45.20
September 25, 2012
US
Consumer Confidence
Sep
60.60
62.00
September 26, 2012
US
New home sales
Value
S.A./
1985=100
Thousands
Aug
372.00
381.50
September 27, 2012
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Sep
9.00
--
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
2Q T
1.70
1.70
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q F
(0.50)
--
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Aug
(7.60)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Aug
(14.80)
--
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Sep
49.50
--
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Sep
49.20
--
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Oct 4
0.50
0.50
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
Oct 4
0.75
--
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Sep
96.00
--
US
Unnemployment rate
Sep
8.10
--
October 09, 2012
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Aug
(0.80)
--
October 12, 2012
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Sep
1.70
--
September 20, 2012
Euro Zone
October 01, 2012
October 04, 2012
October 05, 2012
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Aug
0.10
--
October 13, 2012
China
% Change
Sep
2.70
--
October 15, 2012
India
% Change
Sep
7.55
--
China
Exports YoY%
Monthly Wholesale Prices
YoY%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Sep
2.00
--
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
Sep
2.60
--
US
Industrial Production
Sep
(1.16)
--
October 16, 2012
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Sep
0.60
--
October 17, 2012
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Sep
(15.00)
--
October 18, 2012
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Sep
8.90
--
China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
3Q
7.60
--
US
FOMC rate decision
Oct 24
0.25
--
October 24, 2012
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Strategy
September 17, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
8.0
9.2
9.0
8.5
9.0
8.2
8.0
6.0
8.0
7.6
7.5
6.0
6.7
7.0
4.0
5.3 5.5
5.0
(6.0)
(%)
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
7.7
8.0
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
(5.0)
60.0
9.9
(1.8)
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
12.0
10.0
(1.3)
(2.8)
(4.0)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
6.9
7.4
7.7
7.5
7.6
7.3
56.0
6.9
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Sep-11
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

(%)
Aug-11
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
48.0
Dec-11
0.0
Nov-11
50.0
Oct-11
2.0
Sep-11
52.0
Aug-11
4.0
Oct-11
54.0
6.0
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
60.0
(%)
9.00
45.0
8.00
30.0
7.00
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
6.00
15.0
5.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
4.00
Aug-11
(30.0)
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
0.0
(15.0)
Sep-11
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
4QFY09
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Aug-11
(2.0)
9.8
0.1
1.0
3.5
3.0
10.0
2.0
Sep-11
4.0
2.7
2.5
6.1
5.7
6.0
2.5
4.3
3.4
Market Outlook
September 17, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
136
2,651
1,466
1,686
14.8
14.8
7.0
8.1
19.5
16.8
4.1
3.5
22.6
22.5
1.9
1.6
United Phosphorus
Buy
124
170
5,718
8,421
9,263
16.5
16.5
15.0
17.0
8.3
7.3
1.2
1.1
15.6
15.5
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Accumulate
384
402
3,283
2,844
3,225
15.4
15.5
31.7
36.6
12.1
10.5
3.1
2.5
28.8
26.2
1.1
0.9
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
100
5,030
13,412
15,041
11.0
11.0
11.5
14.2
8.7
7.1
1.5
1.3
18.7
19.4
0.5
0.5
Ashok Leyland
Buy
22
30
5,814
14,920
16,850
9.0
9.3
2.2
2.8
10.0
8.0
1.8
1.6
13.3
15.6
0.5
0.4
Automotive Axle#
Buy
363
430
549
993
1,140
11.6
11.5
36.9
43.0
9.8
8.5
2.0
1.7
21.2
21.3
0.6
0.4
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
1,744
50,457
21,285
23,927
18.2
18.3
108.5
121.3
16.1
14.4
6.7
5.4
46.1
41.3
2.0
1.7
Bharat Forge
Buy
288
351
6,703
7,004
7,985
16.2
16.4
20.3
25.1
14.2
11.5
2.6
2.2
20.0
20.9
1.1
1.0
Bosch India*
Neutral
8,415
26,423
9,034
10,286
17.8
18.3
373.6
435.8
22.5
19.3
4.6
3.8
20.5
19.8
2.6
2.2
CEAT
Buy
115
164
394
4,989
5,634
8.7
8.5
32.7
41.1
3.5
2.8
0.5
0.4
15.8
16.9
0.3
0.2
Exide Industries
Neutral
145
12,295
5,899
6,771
16.0
17.0
7.4
9.1
19.7
15.8
3.5
3.0
19.0
20.2
1.7
1.5
FAG Bearings*
Neutral
1,540
2,559
1,505
1,747
17.7
18.0
111.5
130.0
13.8
11.8
2.9
2.4
22.8
21.7
1.4
1.2
Hero Motocorp
Buy
1,859
2,428
37,115
26,097
29,963
15.0
15.3
139.5
151.8
13.3
12.3
6.3
4.8
54.6
44.3
1.1
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
114
135
466
7,517
8,329
6.1
6.3
26.2
38.5
4.3
3.0
0.6
0.5
13.4
17.2
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
777
879
47,709
36,536
41,650
11.6
11.5
49.3
54.9
15.8
14.2
3.2
2.8
22.1
21.1
1.0
0.9
1,261
36,436
41,796
47,953
7.6
8.4
67.1
87.6
18.8
14.4
2.2
1.9
12.1
14.1
0.6
0.5
Accumulate
201
228
7,873
24,173
27,055
6.6
7.1
11.7
15.2
17.2
13.2
3.6
2.9
22.4
24.2
0.5
0.4
Subros
Accumulate
30
34
183
1,230
1,378
8.8
8.6
4.5
5.7
6.8
5.4
0.7
0.6
9.8
11.8
0.4
0.4
Tata Motors
Accumulate
270
292
72,038 195,096 219,428
12.8
12.8
39.0
43.9
6.9
6.2
2.0
1.6
32.6
28.2
0.4
0.3
TVS Motor
Accumulate
40
43
1,888
7,545
8,301
6.2
6.1
4.9
5.4
8.1
7.4
1.4
1.3
18.8
18.2
0.2
0.2
Maruti
Neutral
Motherson Sumi
Capital Goods
ABB*
Sell
746
498
15,800
8,760
10,023
5.5
7.5
12.4
20.7
60.0
36.0
5.8
5.1
10.1
15.2
1.7
1.5
BGR Energy
Neutral
265
1,913
3,669
4,561
11.0
11.0
24.7
29.6
10.7
9.0
1.6
1.4
15.3
16.7
0.6
BHEL
Neutral
205
50,078
47,801
43,757
19.4
19.8
25.7
23.9
8.0
8.6
1.7
1.5
22.7
18.3
1.0
0.8
Blue Star
Neutral
166
1,488
3,047
3,328
5.4
6.9
12.5
16.2
13.3
10.2
3.2
2.6
26.1
28.2
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Buy
107
128
6,893
12,691
14,096
7.0
8.5
6.5
9.1
16.5
11.8
1.8
1.6
11.1
14.2
0.5
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Buy
37
59
304
2,622
2,801
10.3
10.7
8.7
13.1
4.3
2.8
0.4
0.4
10.3
14.0
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
57
69
1,468
6,858
7,431
7.5
8.3
9.0
11.5
6.4
5.0
1.2
1.0
26.9
27.2
0.3
0.3
LMW
Neutral
2,059
2,319
2,369
2,727
11.7
11.7
143.4
166.0
14.4
12.4
2.4
2.2
17.4
18.4
0.5
0.4
Thermax
Neutral
501
5,969
5,514
5,559
8.9
9.6
26.9
28.4
18.7
17.7
3.2
2.9
18.4
17.1
1.0
1.0
Market Outlook
September 17, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,386
26,013
11,220
12,896
20.0
20.6
71.1
81.2
19.5
17.1
3.4
3.1
18.1
19.0
2.0
1.6
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
197
30,335
10,205
11,659
24.6
24.2
10.8
12.0
18.2
16.4
3.8
3.4
19.7
19.8
2.5
2.1
India Cements
Neutral
82
2,533
4,393
4,914
19.3
19.5
10.1
12.7
8.2
6.5
0.7
0.7
8.8
10.6
1.0
0.9
J K Lakshmi Cements
Neutral
98
1,199
1,964
2,278
19.5
20.4
16.3
17.9
6.0
5.5
0.9
0.8
14.7
14.6
0.8
1.1
Madras Cements
Neutral
182
4,342
3,608
3,928
27.4
26.9
15.6
18.1
11.7
10.1
1.8
1.6
16.8
16.9
1.8
1.6
Shree Cements^
Neutral
3,406
11,865
5,767
6,337
28.4
26.9
216.9
253.3
15.7
13.5
3.5
2.9
24.7
23.4
1.5
1.2
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,752
48,032
20,167
22,752
21.7
23.0
90.8
107.8
19.3
16.3
3.2
2.8
17.9
18.3
2.2
2.1
249
304
1,309
2,029
2,310
22.4
22.4
27.1
31.7
9.2
7.8
1.1
1.0
13.1
13.4
1.9
2.2
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
14
251
2,262
2,522
6.7
7.5
1.5
2.7
9.2
5.1
0.4
0.4
4.4
7.5
0.4
0.4
Hind. Const.
Neutral
17
1,001
4,239
4,522
9.9
11.2
(2.3)
(1.0)
(7.3)
(17.1)
0.9
1.0
(11.4)
(5.6)
1.1
1.2
IRB Infra
Buy
126
166
4,199
3,964
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.5
16.9
8.2
7.5
1.3
1.1
16.6
15.8
2.6
2.5
ITNL
Buy
167
232
3,238
6,840
7,767
26.4
26.1
24.4
28.4
6.8
5.9
1.0
0.9
16.0
16.2
2.6
2.8
IVRCL Infra
Buy
42
51
1,277
5,510
6,722
8.8
9.0
2.5
4.6
16.4
9.1
0.5
0.5
3.4
5.8
0.7
0.6
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
74
91
15,672
15,259
17,502
25.7
24.7
4.2
5.0
17.4
14.7
1.4
1.3
8.5
9.3
2.3
2.0
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
1,487
1,568
91,271
60,474
69,091
12.1
11.5
79.7
85.4
18.7
17.4
3.1
2.8
16.3
15.1
1.6
1.4
Madhucon Proj
Buy
34
56
251
2,206
2,502
10.7
10.7
4.6
4.7
7.3
7.3
0.4
0.4
5.2
5.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
34
45
866
5,804
6,513
8.0
8.6
3.0
3.5
11.1
9.6
0.4
0.4
3.2
3.6
0.6
0.6
Patel Engg.
Neutral
64
449
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
4.6
4.4
0.3
0.3
6.3
6.1
1.0
1.0
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
49
1,626
11,892
13,116
8.9
8.9
1.7
3.1
28.9
15.8
0.6
0.5
1.9
3.4
0.5
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
140
182
2,102
2,506
3,147
10.3
10.7
7.5
10.4
18.6
13.4
2.3
2.0
13.5
16.0
0.9
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
186
265
918
6,732
7,837
8.1
8.4
23.5
29.4
7.9
6.3
0.7
0.7
9.6
11.0
0.4
0.4
Allahabad Bank
Accumulate
125
128
6,245
7,233
8,579
3.1
3.3
40.5
40.9
3.1
3.1
0.6
0.5
19.4
17.0
Andhra Bank
Neutral
93
5,193
4,959
5,787
3.1
3.1
22.7
24.5
4.1
3.8
0.7
0.6
16.0
15.3
Axis Bank
Buy
1,010
1,373
41,840
15,961
19,583
3.1
3.2
117.3
143.1
8.6
7.1
1.6
1.4
20.1
20.8
Bank of Baroda
Buy
679
829
26,568
15,830
19,300
2.6
2.7
118.9
147.1
5.7
4.6
0.9
0.8
16.7
18.0
Bank of India
Buy
270
323
15,483
13,159
15,851
2.4
2.5
61.1
71.1
4.4
3.8
0.8
0.7
16.6
17.0
Bank of Maharashtra
Neutral
Canara Bank
Buy
Central Bank
Neutral
Financials
45
2,627
3,471
3,889
3.1
3.1
9.0
11.5
4.9
3.9
0.6
0.6
13.7
15.5
341
421
15,089
11,334
13,629
2.2
2.3
75.4
85.1
4.5
4.0
0.7
0.6
15.2
15.3
64
4,693
7,181
8,365
2.5
2.7
16.3
21.8
3.9
2.9
0.7
0.6
12.7
15.1
Market Outlook
September 17, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Buy
377
436
5,579
5,067
5,998
2.1
2.3
105.6
111.0
3.6
3.4
0.6
0.5
17.6
16.3
Dena Bank
Buy
96
107
3,355
3,177
3,595
2.8
2.8
25.2
25.4
3.8
3.8
0.7
0.6
18.9
16.4
Federal Bank
Accumulate
410
458
7,005
2,697
3,171
3.4
3.4
47.9
58.0
8.6
7.1
1.1
1.0
13.6
14.7
HDFC
Neutral
770
118,344
7,340
8,805
3.5
3.5
31.5
37.8
24.4
20.4
4.9
4.4
34.8
32.2
HDFC Bank
Neutral
612
144,438
21,936
27,454
4.4
4.4
28.7
36.0
21.4
17.0
4.1
3.5
20.7
22.0
ICICI Bank
Buy
1,006
1,169
115,678
22,356
27,157
2.9
3.0
68.7
82.0
14.7
12.3
1.8
1.6
14.2
15.5
IDBI Bank
Buy
90
101
11,531
7,952
9,876
1.9
2.2
18.5
23.6
4.9
3.8
0.6
0.6
12.8
14.7
Indian Bank
Buy
169
190
7,246
6,294
7,191
3.4
3.4
40.6
44.9
4.2
3.8
0.7
0.6
18.1
17.4
IOB
Buy
69
80
5,499
7,473
8,732
2.5
2.5
16.7
22.6
4.1
3.1
0.5
0.4
11.8
14.4
J & K Bank
Accumulate
905
1,026
4,389
2,625
2,921
3.6
3.5
194.4
191.9
4.7
4.7
0.9
0.8
21.2
18.0
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
256
279
12,897
1,867
2,338
2.4
2.4
21.1
28.5
12.1
9.0
2.0
1.7
17.5
20.4
Oriental Bank
Buy
233
278
6,792
6,518
7,458
2.8
2.9
61.3
65.1
3.8
3.6
0.6
0.5
15.2
14.3
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
709
950
24,058
20,116
23,625
3.3
3.4
152.8
173.9
4.6
4.1
0.8
0.7
18.2
18.0
South Ind.Bank
Buy
22
25
2,918
1,514
1,717
2.8
2.7
4.0
4.2
5.5
5.2
1.1
0.9
20.5
18.5
St Bk of India
Buy
1,971
2,270
132,233
64,470
75,940
3.5
3.5
224.4
258.7
8.8
7.6
1.5
1.3
17.6
17.8
Syndicate Bank
Buy
96
119
5,758
6,840
7,996
2.9
3.0
25.7
29.2
3.7
3.3
0.6
0.5
17.9
17.8
UCO Bank
Neutral
69
4,573
5,488
6,338
2.4
2.5
17.3
17.7
4.0
3.9
0.8
0.7
17.0
15.3
Union Bank
Buy
165
230
9,068
10,299
12,227
2.9
3.0
42.1
49.3
3.9
3.3
0.7
0.6
16.7
17.1
United Bank
Buy
56
79
2,038
3,634
4,194
2.8
2.9
18.2
23.0
3.1
2.5
0.5
0.4
15.0
16.7
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
50
2,465
2,579
3,028
2.1
2.3
8.8
11.6
5.6
4.3
0.7
0.6
11.1
13.3
Yes Bank
Buy
356
453
12,649
3,255
4,228
2.8
3.0
34.2
42.7
10.4
8.3
2.2
1.8
23.3
23.8
3,893
37,340
11,198
13,184
16.3
16.3
121.0
144.8
32.2
26.9
10.8
8.5
37.4
35.3
3.2
2.7
489
584
5,845
5,835
6,824
5.7
6.0
20.7
25.4
23.6
19.3
9.3
7.1
43.1
41.9
0.9
0.8
1,246
16,946
3,018
3,429
20.9
22.3
34.6
41.0
36.0
30.4
33.2
25.2
99.5
94.1
5.5
4.8
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
127
22,170
6,124
7,030
17.0
16.8
4.5
5.2
28.5
24.6
11.7
9.3
43.2
41.5
3.6
3.1
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
3,076
12,935
3,124
3,663
17.1
17.6
104.5
123.8
29.4
24.9
9.2
7.4
34.4
32.8
3.8
3.2
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
659
22,433
6,097
7,233
18.4
18.6
21.9
26.5
30.2
24.9
6.7
5.5
25.5
25.4
3.9
3.2
HUL
Neutral
547
118,342
25,350
28,974
13.9
13.9
14.3
16.5
38.4
33.2
22.9
17.6
70.9
59.8
4.5
3.8
ITC
Neutral
268
210,373
29,513
33,885
35.4
35.8
9.3
10.8
28.9
24.9
9.6
8.0
35.6
35.0
6.9
5.9
Market Outlook
September 17, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
198
12,762
4,840
5,643
13.1
13.1
6.8
8.5
29.2
23.4
8.1
6.1
31.4
29.7
2.8
2.3
Nestle*
Neutral
4,482
43,216
8,610
10,174
20.9
21.2
114.8
139.8
39.0
32.1
23.6
16.4
71.2
60.3
5.2
4.2
Tata Global
Neutral
134
8,265
7,207
7,927
9.7
10.0
6.6
7.9
20.2
17.0
2.1
2.0
8.6
9.5
1.1
0.9
HCL Tech^
Neutral
583
40,403
24,400
27,049
18.6
17.5
41.1
45.0
14.2
12.9
3.2
2.7
22.7
21.1
1.6
1.4
Hexaware*
Neutral
136
4,044
1,947
2,161
22.0
21.4
11.4
12.1
12.0
11.2
3.1
2.6
26.4
24.0
1.8
1.6
Infosys
Neutral
2,633
151,184
39,151
41,743
31.6
31.9
161.9
174.5
16.3
15.1
3.9
3.3
23.8
22.1
3.1
2.8
Infotech Enterprises
Reduce
196
187
2,182
1,889
2,065
18.0
17.5
18.0
19.7
10.9
10.0
1.6
1.4
14.5
13.7
0.8
0.7
KPIT Cummins
Neutral
128
2,282
2,149
2,331
15.6
14.8
10.7
11.2
11.9
11.4
2.5
2.0
20.6
17.8
1.0
0.9
Mahindra Satyam
Reduce
105
97
12,363
7,574
8,062
19.6
18.4
9.5
9.7
11.1
10.9
1.8
1.5
16.1
14.1
1.2
1.1
Mindtree
Neutral
719
2,938
2,341
2,513
18.6
17.1
66.5
70.8
10.8
10.2
2.4
1.9
22.3
19.3
1.1
1.0
Mphasis&
Neutral
387
8,138
5,713
6,005
18.0
16.8
36.9
37.1
10.5
10.4
1.5
1.3
14.3
12.6
1.0
0.8
NIIT
Buy
32
40
527
1,162
1,304
14.8
15.1
7.1
8.8
4.5
3.6
0.8
0.7
16.7
18.4
0.3
0.2
Persistent
Reduce
418
398
1,673
1,193
1,278
25.6
24.3
42.6
44.3
9.8
9.5
1.7
1.5
17.2
15.5
1.1
0.9
TCS
Neutral
1,412
276,350
61,046
67,507
29.3
29.1
67.3
72.4
21.0
19.5
6.7
5.5
31.9
28.3
4.3
3.9
Tech Mahindra
Neutral
910
11,610
6,553
7,331
18.1
17.1
92.5
100.7
9.8
9.0
2.3
1.9
23.6
20.7
1.8
1.6
Wipro
Accumulate
390
420
96,021
43,492
48,332
19.4
19.3
25.1
28.0
15.5
13.9
2.9
2.5
18.6
18.0
1.9
1.6
D B Corp
Buy
188
236
3,447
1,597
1,785
22.9
24.2
11.1
13.9
16.9
13.5
3.2
2.8
20.2
22.1
2.1
1.8
HT Media
Buy
87
113
2,047
2,111
2,263
15.2
15.2
7.3
8.1
11.9
10.7
1.3
1.1
11.2
11.2
0.5
0.4
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
92
112
2,895
1,506
1,687
22.5
23.2
6.2
7.0
14.8
13.1
3.5
3.2
25.0
25.7
2.1
1.9
PVR
Neutral
182
473
625
732
17.4
17.1
13.3
15.6
13.7
11.7
1.5
1.3
13.2
13.8
1.2
1.0
Sun TV Network
Neutral
308
12,132
1,981
2,239
77.0
76.7
18.6
21.3
16.6
14.4
4.2
3.7
27.1
27.5
5.6
4.8
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
469
9,956
11,979
14,584
31.6
31.0
49.2
61.4
9.5
7.6
1.3
1.1
14.1
15.2
2.8
2.3
Coal India
Neutral
382
241,506
69,808
75,550
27.4
27.4
26.0
28.3
14.7
13.5
4.3
3.4
32.5
28.1
2.5
2.2
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
18
23
618
1,984
2,074
11.2
12.6
2.5
2.9
7.2
6.2
0.3
0.1
5.1
5.7
0.5
0.5
Hind. Zinc
Accumulate
137
144
57,697
12,446
13,538
52.3
52.9
14.3
15.5
9.6
8.8
1.8
1.5
20.5
18.9
2.6
2.0
Hindalco
Neutral
118
22,611
84,855
92,446
8.7
9.3
13.2
16.2
8.9
7.3
0.7
0.6
7.8
8.9
0.6
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
712
15,889
38,740
41,459
17.3
17.0
79.9
89.4
8.9
8.0
0.9
0.8
10.4
10.6
0.8
0.8
MOIL
Neutral
265
4,451
918
993
50.7
50.9
24.5
26.1
10.8
10.2
1.7
1.5
16.0
15.5
2.6
2.2
Monnet Ispat
Buy
299
379
1,921
2,511
3,303
23.8
26.0
46.3
57.3
6.5
5.2
0.7
0.7
12.4
13.7
1.7
1.2
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
September 17, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Reduce
NMDC
Accumulate
54
48
13,943
7,401
7,841
16.7
19.2
3.4
4.1
15.8
13.2
1.1
1.1
7.4
8.4
1.4
1.3
191
214
75,686
12,934
14,266
79.4
80.1
21.1
23.4
9.1
8.2
2.4
2.0
29.6
26.5
4.0
3.4
SAIL
Sesa Goa
Neutral
84
34,800
47,252
60,351
14.2
14.8
9.6
11.7
8.8
7.2
0.8
0.7
9.4
10.6
1.2
1.0
Neutral
169
14,679
7,704
8,034
33.6
34.6
42.0
43.1
4.0
3.9
0.8
0.7
22.3
19.2
2.1
1.9
Sterlite Inds
Neutral
99
33,152
41,680
45,382
24.2
23.2
16.3
16.9
6.1
5.8
0.7
0.6
11.3
10.7
0.8
0.7
Tata Steel
Buy
404
481
39,213 145,799 150,431
10.3
11.2
48.6
63.3
8.3
6.4
0.8
0.8
10.5
12.4
0.5
0.5
Sarda
Buy
119
148
427
1,251
1,321
22.7
23.4
33.0
37.1
3.6
3.2
0.5
0.5
15.1
14.8
0.7
0.6
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
50
73
676
2,694
2,906
14.6
16.6
16.4
20.8
3.1
2.4
0.3
0.3
11.4
12.8
0.5
0.3
Buy
117
161
372
2,341
2,425
15.6
17.3
33.3
43.2
3.5
2.7
0.4
0.4
13.2
14.4
0.5
0.5
Cairn India
Accumulate
354
380
67,616
16,605
17,258
75.4
71.7
57.0
54.9
6.2
6.5
1.1
1.0
20.2
16.3
2.9
2.3
GAIL
Neutral
374
47,466
50,176
55,815
15.5
15.8
35.4
36.5
10.6
10.2
1.9
1.6
18.9
17.0
0.6
0.5
ONGC
Accumulate
282
312
241,265 147,139 154,821
33.9
33.7
30.7
32.3
9.2
8.7
1.6
1.4
18.3
17.2
1.4
1.3
Reliance Industries
Neutral
841
275,373 362,700 380,031
7.9
8.0
61.5
64.3
13.7
13.1
1.4
1.3
10.3
9.9
0.7
0.7
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
295
3,864
11.5
11.3
19.2
22.1
15.4
13.4
4.1
3.7
28.7
29.0
1.1
0.9
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
254
3,557
3,040
3,135
24.3
26.7
24.8
27.9
10.3
9.1
2.4
2.0
25.5
23.6
1.2
1.0
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Neutral
166
12,435
29,145
33,736
6.6
6.6
14.2
16.0
11.7
10.4
2.8
2.3
26.9
24.4
0.5
0.4
Neutral
77
4,305
1,041
939
91.8
91.9
8.5
7.4
9.0
10.3
1.5
1.4
18.1
14.0
5.1
5.7
Alembic Pharma
Buy
73
91
1,373
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
11.0
8.0
2.8
2.1
27.9
29.2
1.0
0.8
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
126
156
3,671
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
11.8
12.6
10.7
10.0
1.3
1.1
17.9
16.4
1.2
1.1
Aventis*
Neutral
2,310
5,320
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.0
104.0
24.3
22.2
4.3
3.4
18.6
17.0
3.3
2.9
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
896
18,350
6,148
7,386
18.6
19.6
36.0
46.1
24.9
19.4
5.9
4.7
25.8
26.8
3.3
2.7
Cipla
Accumulate
369
399
29,636
8,031
9,130
23.4
22.4
18.4
20.0
20.1
18.5
3.3
2.9
17.8
16.6
3.5
3.0
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,746
29,635
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
20.9
18.8
4.3
3.6
22.4
21.0
3.1
2.7
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
104
836
1,280
1,536
17.8
17.8
9.2
11.3
11.3
9.2
0.8
0.8
7.7
8.5
1.3
1.1
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,090
17,703
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
27.5
25.4
8.0
7.1
20.1
26.3
6.0
5.2
Indoco Remedies
Buy
71
92
657
685
837
15.2
15.2
7.4
8.9
9.6
8.0
1.5
1.3
16.4
17.0
1.2
0.9
Ipca labs
Accumulate
444
475
5,595
2,850
3,474
20.7
20.7
29.2
36.6
15.2
12.1
3.6
2.8
26.1
26.1
2.1
1.7
Lupin
Accumulate
575
647
25,712
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
27.4
32.4
21.0
17.8
5.1
4.1
26.0
24.7
3.2
2.6
Orchid Chemicals
Neutral
113
793
1,667
1,835
13.9
13.9
11.4
13.3
9.9
8.5
0.6
0.6
6.6
7.3
0.9
0.8
3,783
3,267
Market Outlook
September 17, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Pharmaceuticals
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
541
22,857
12,046
11,980
18.0
15.8
35.7
29.8
15.2
18.2
5.9
4.7
39.1
28.9
2.0
1.9
Sun Pharma
Neutral
678
70,088
9,752
12,134
41.6
41.6
26.0
28.2
26.1
24.0
4.9
4.2
20.3
18.8
6.4
5.0
CESC
Buy
306
342
3,827
5,218
5,644
24.2
23.8
44.6
47.6
6.9
6.4
0.7
0.7
11.0
10.6
1.5
1.5
GIPCL
Accumulate
NTPC
Neutral
Power
69
77
1,036
1,557
1,573
29.3
28.7
10.8
11.0
6.4
6.2
0.7
0.6
10.8
10.2
1.1
1.0
168
138,606
74,111
85,789
23.2
23.6
12.4
14.0
13.6
12.0
1.7
1.5
13.0
13.5
2.6
2.4
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Buy
DLF
Neutral
49
78
1,436
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
5.8
3.8
0.4
0.3
6.3
8.9
3.3
2.5
217
36,825
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
22.6
16.2
1.4
1.4
6.4
8.7
6.0
HDIL
Buy
4.9
73
115
3,040
2,441
3,344
55.1
48.2
22.7
26.6
3.2
2.7
0.3
0.2
8.8
9.4
3.0
MLIFE
2.3
Accumulate
363
396
1,482
813
901
26.2
26.6
32.0
37.1
11.3
9.8
1.2
1.1
10.4
11.0
2.1
1.9
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
255
96,875
79,542
87,535
30.9
32.2
10.3
15.0
24.8
17.0
1.8
1.6
7.2
9.6
1.9
1.6
Idea Cellular
Neutral
84
27,808
22,988
25,333
26.4
26.9
3.5
4.9
24.2
17.2
2.0
1.8
8.1
10.2
1.6
1.4
Rcom
Neutral
51
10,537
21,553
22,494
31.0
30.7
3.5
4.5
14.7
11.5
0.3
0.3
1.9
2.4
2.0
1.8
Abbott India
Neutral
1,611
3,423
1,602
1,833
10.4
11.8
54.7
71.7
29.5
22.5
5.6
4.7
20.0
22.7
1.9
1.6
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
180
234
1,794
3,569
4,172
8.1
8.8
16.3
21.3
11.1
8.4
2.3
1.9
21.7
24.6
0.5
0.4
Cera Sanitaryware
Accumulate
335
352
424
396
470
16.7
16.5
28.0
33.2
12.0
10.1
2.5
2.0
23.8
23.1
1.2
1.0
Cravatex
Buy
436
682
113
289
340
5.2
6.0
40.7
56.8
10.7
7.7
2.7
2.0
25.2
26.5
0.5
0.4
CRISIL
Neutral
927
6,504
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
27.0
23.2
12.2
9.8
50.9
46.9
6.2
5.2
Finolex Cables
Buy
41
61
633
2,334
2,687
8.8
9.3
7.6
10.2
5.4
4.1
0.7
0.6
13.7
16.1
0.2
0.1
Force Motors
Buy
442
591
576
2,214
2,765
4.5
5.4
39.5
73.9
11.2
6.0
0.5
0.5
4.4
7.6
0.1
0.1
Goodyear India
Neutral
322
743
1,543
1,654
6.5
7.3
24.8
31.1
13.0
10.4
2.1
1.8
17.1
19.0
0.3
0.2
Graphite India
Buy
82
113
1,600
2,158
2,406
18.1
18.9
12.4
14.0
6.6
5.8
0.9
0.8
14.0
14.3
0.9
0.7
Greenply Industries
Buy
188
309
453
1,925
2,235
10.6
10.9
29.6
44.1
6.4
4.3
1.0
0.8
16.8
21.0
0.5
0.4
Hitachi
Accumulate
118
130
270
868
977
3.9
6.6
2.7
10.9
42.9
10.8
1.6
1.4
3.7
13.6
0.4
0.3
Honeywell Automation
Accumulate
2,493
2,842
2,204
1,847
2,162
4.3
7.3
61.0
120.0
40.9
20.8
3.2
2.8
9.3
16.3
1.1
0.9
Styrolution ABS India
Buy
624
744
1,097
1,056
1,081
8.1
10.6
33.8
46.5
18.4
13.4
2.6
2.2
14.7
17.5
0.9
0.9
ITD Cementation
Accumulate
225
241
259
1,451
1,669
12.3
12.4
32.4
41.5
6.9
5.4
0.6
0.6
9.4
10.9
0.6
0.6
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
165
2,664
1,248
1,468
9.8
10.4
5.9
7.2
27.9
23.1
4.0
3.7
15.0
16.6
2.5
2.1
MCX
Accumulate
1,277
1,440
6,513
553
624
65.3
66.3
62.5
72.0
20.5
17.7
5.6
4.9
27.5
27.4
8.6
7.1
MRF
Buy
10,231
12,884
4,339
11,804
12,727
10.4
10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3
7.9
7.2
1.5
1.3
21.3
19.4
0.5
0.5
Telecom
zOthers
Market Outlook
September 17, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
zOthers
Page Industries
Neutral
3,371
3,759
887
1,108
18.3
18.6
95.0
120.9
35.5
27.9
18.5
15.0
57.4
59.5
4.2
3.3
Relaxo Footwears
Reduce
717
684
860
1,019
1,208
12.3
13.0
51.0
68.4
14.1
10.5
3.7
2.8
30.3
30.2
1.0
0.8
Sintex Industries
Buy
59
79
1,601
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
4.3
3.7
0.6
0.5
12.9
13.2
0.7
0.6
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
295
392
276
1,042
1,173
12.4
12.5
66.3
78.5
4.5
3.8
0.9
0.7
21.1
20.8
0.5
0.4
S. Kumars Nationwide
Buy
18
24
543
7,134
7,985
19.7
19.4
12.2
14.1
1.5
1.3
0.2
0.1
11.3
11.5
0.6
0.6
SpiceJet
Buy
35
43
1,671
5,720
6,599
5.3
6.8
3.6
5.4
9.6
6.4
13.9
4.4
0.4
0.3
TAJ GVK
Buy
66
108
414
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
8.4
7.3
1.1
1.0
13.9
14.4
1.7
1.4
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
310
424
478
787
837
16.2
17.5
58.5
66.9
5.3
4.6
0.8
0.7
14.9
15.1
0.3
0.1
TVS Srichakra
Neutral
327
250
1,476
1,643
7.1
8.2
32.3
55.8
10.1
5.9
1.6
1.3
16.6
24.8
0.4
0.3
United Spirits
Neutral
931
12,179
10,289
11,421
13.5
14.3
31.0
42.9
30.0
21.7
2.3
2.1
8.1
10.3
1.9
1.7
Vesuvius India
Neutral
314
637
560
611
16.1
17.0
24.7
28.8
12.7
10.9
1.9
1.7
15.8
16.2
1.0
0.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on September 14, 2012
Market Outlook
September 17, 2012

Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

September 17, 2012

OIL & GAS

WPI inflation for the month of August inches up to 7.6%

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (September 12, 2012)

FII Derivatives (September 14, 2012)

WPI inflation for the month of August inches up to 7.6%

Existing policy norms for FDI in single brand retail tweaked

FDI in multi-brand Retail

Atleast 50% of total FDI brought in shall be invested in `backend

Atleast 30%, of the value of goods purchased, should be sourced

FDI in Civil Aviation

FDI in Power exchanges

Divestment approved in four PSUs

Exhibit 1: `14,255cr expected to be raised out of proposed divestment

No of Shares CMP* Amt raised at

1,686Offer for Sale

7,249Offer for Sale

2,389Offer for Sale

2,930Offer for Sale

Interministerial Panel recommends cancelation of a coal

Tata Sponge Iron coal block deallocated

Economic and Political News

Deallocated coal blocks should be given to power projects: Moily

ITC inaugurates `1,200cr Grand Chola hotel

Global economic events release calendar

September 17, 2012

RBI Repo rate

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

RBI Reverse Repo rate

September 18, 2012

September 19, 2012

Existing home sales

Initial Jobless claims

September 25, 2012

September 26, 2012

New home sales

September 27, 2012

Unemployment change (000's)

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

BOE Announces rates

ECB announces interest rates

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

October 09, 2012

Industrial Production (YoY)

October 12, 2012

Producer Price Index (mom)

September 20, 2012

October 01, 2012

October 04, 2012

October 05, 2012

Industrial Production YoY

October 13, 2012

October 15, 2012

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

October 16, 2012