elixirsecurities

May18,2012

ELIXIRCOMMODITIES

a dawood group company

COMMODITIESNEWS

CrudeOil
CrudeOilSpotPrices
Open
DailyHigh
DailyLow
Close
Source:AVA

(USD/bbl)
92.92
93.86
92.08
92.60
*PriceofMay17,2012
R1
93.61

CrudeOil

CrudeOilDailyGraph

R2
94.63

R3
95.39

S1
91.83

S2
91.07

TechnicalIndicators
RSI14
SMA30
SMA50
SMA100
SMA200
Source:AVA

S3
90.05

20.60
100.29
101.86
102.66
98.59
Source:AVA

WeeklyTechnical's

Fundamentals

Prices continue to test support in the $95.20 area marked by a horizontal barrier in play
since early November 2011.An inverted hammer candlestick hints at the possibility of a
corrective bounce. Nearterm resistance lines up at $98.90. Break below support
exposes $92.51. Global traders and investors continue to eye the geo
geopolitical
political tension
between Iran and the West. Any escalation in that Oil producing region would most
likelycausebothCrudeOilandthepreciousmetalspricestoskyrocket.

Japan's Trade Minister Yukio Edano said on Friday the government is

examiningoptionsforpayingforoilimportsfromIranafteraU.S.court
orderedafreezingofIranianassetsheldbyJapanesebanks.
Th
t ill d it b t t
th
i
i
t
d
Thegovernmentwilldoitsbesttoensurethereisnoimpactoncrude
oiltradewithIran,Edanosaidatabriefing.
Japanese oil refiner Idemitsu Kosan Co has renewed its annual crude
oilpurchasedealwithIranbutcutthevolumeinlinewithitspeersto
complywithU.S.sanctionsagainsttheIslamicnation,industrysources
saidonFriday.
The United States andEuropeanUnion have stepped up measures to
reduce Iran's oil trade, aiming to stem the flow of petrodollars to
TehraninabidtoforceittohaltanuclearprogramtheWestsuspects
isintendedtoproduceweapons.
IdemitsuhadatermIraniancrudecontractworthabout7,000barrels
per day for the financial year that ended in March, the sources
estimated.Thevolumehadbeencutforthenewcontractbutthesize
ofthecutwasunclear,theysaid.
Acompanyspokesmanacknowledgedthedealhadbeenrenewed,but
declined to whether the volume had been cut. Iranian oil imports
accounted for 1 to 2 percent of the company's crude imports in the
yearendedMarch31,companyspokesmensaid.

Inthebroadspectrum:

Alongtermconsolidationpatternfrom$147.27,withfirstwavecompletedat
$32.70

Arise from $32.70 (Jan 21,2009) secondwave isnotfinished yetas longas

$89.15supportholds.

Anticipate another high above $114.83, with strong resistance ahead of

$147.24tobringreversalforthethirdlegoftheconsolidationpattern.

Currentdevelopmentindicatesthefallfrom$114.80hasfinishedat$74.94.

Sustained break of $114.83 will target 61.8% projection of $33.2 to $114.83

from$74.95at$125.40.

Break of $89.15 will indicate that rebound from $74.94 has completed and
wholefallfrom$114.80ispossiblyresumingforanotherbelow$74.94.

Abreakof$64.23supportisneededtoconfirmcompletionofthewholerise
from$32.70.Otherwise,willcontinuetostaybullishincrudeoil.

ExpectedWeeklyTradingRange:$101.70$92.20

May18,2012

ELIXIRSECURITIES
ElixirCommoditiesUAN111354947EXT31653147TEL+9221356939121516Email:COMMODITIES@ELIXIRSEC.COM

COMMODITIESNEWS

Silver
SilverSpotPrice
Open
DailyHigh
DailyLow
Close
Source:AVA

(USD/T.oz)
27.34
28.31
27.34
28.08

SilverDailyGraph

*PriceofMay17,2012
R1
28.48

Silver

R2
28.88

R3
29.45

S1
27.51

S2
26.94

TechnicalIndicators
RSI14
SMA30
SMA50
SMA100
SMA200
Source:AVA

S3
26.54

32.58
30.17
30.94
32.35
31.88
Source:AVA

WeeklyTechnical's

Fundamentals

Prices continue to consolidate below resistance at $32.93, the former neckline of a

(H&S) top carved out between late January and midMarch. The H&S setup broadly
implies a measured downside target at $26.84. Last week prices tested support in the
$28.44 area marked by a horizontal barrier as well as the bottom of a falling channel
established since early March. A confirmed break on a daily closing basis exposes
$27.06 as the next downside objective. Nearterm resistance remains at $29.70 for the
time being. Topside advances remain capped $31.25 support turned resistance and
bringanotherfall.

Spot silverbrokebelow$29an ounce for thefirst timeinnearlyfour

months,andrecoveredslightlyto$29.
Watch out for silver prices to go even lower, said Trevethan of ANZ.
With base metals under pressure, there is scope for silver to fall
furtherespeciallygivenitsvolatility.
The goldsilver ratio, used to measure how many ounces of silver is
needed to buy an ounce of gold, rose to 54.85, and its highest level
sincethemiddleofJanuary.

Inthebroadspectrum:

Therecoveryfrom$26.05is athreewave witharesistance $37.48 tolimit

upside.

Breach above of $35.66 will indicate bottoming, with a double bottom

reversal pattern, and turn focus back to 61.8% projection of $26.05 to
$34.51from$32.63at$37.83,$39.51.and$40psychologicallevel.

Breaksbelow$32.63supportwillindicationofcompletionofreboundfrom
$26.05.

Wholedeclinefrom$49.78isstillinprogressandnotfinishedyet.

A break of 61.8% retracement of (dated feb.2, 2010 low $8.40 to dated

Apr.25, 2011high $49.78) will confirm resumption for $24.20 long term
Fibonaccilevel.

ExpectedWeeklyTradingRange:$31.70$27.48

May18,2012

ELIXIRSECURITIES
ElixirCommoditiesUAN111354947EXT31653147TEL+9221356939121516Email:COMMODITIES@ELIXIRSEC.COM

COMMODITIESNEWS

Gold
GoldSpotPrice
Open
DailyHigh
DailyLow
Close
Source:AVA

(USD/T.oz)
1543.13
1579.65
1542.87
1574.98
*PriceofMay17,2012
R1
1588.80

Gold

GoldDailyGraph

R2
1602.61

R3
1625.58

S1
1552.02

S2
1529.05

TechnicalIndicators
RSI14
SMA30
SMA50
SMA100
SMA200
Source:AVA

S3
1515.24

41.01
1623.81
1637.79
1677.74
1674.66
Source:AVA

WeeklyTechnical's

Fundamentals

Gold has broken below a major trend line that extends off of lows in 2008, 2010, and
2011. Focus is now on the December low at $1522.50 and then support from May
2011 and resistance from December 2010 at $1450/80. $1615/30 is resistance. The
break is valid against the May 2011 high of $1671.49. Manage risk on shorts carefully
down here as the probability of sharp spikes increases as price approaches the
December low. The overall outlook will remain trend remain bearish.
MediumTerm:
Prices are showing an inverted hammer above support at $1582.45 level, hinting a
bouncemaybeahead.
Initialresistancelinesupat$1603.42,at$1612extensionat$1625.
Alternatively, renewed selling pressure that takes prices through support would
exposetheexpansionat$1561.50.
Closes above $1627.3 resistance will authenticate that the fall from $1790.55 is
accomplishedandthenturnfocusbackat$1650andabove.

Gold on Thursday posted its biggest daily gain since January,

recoupingmostofthisweek'slosses,andwheatextendeditsrally
as buyers returned to some commodity markets cheapened by
worriesoverEuropeandtheworldeconomy.
OnWallStreet,U.S.stocksfellforafifthstraightday,hittingfour
monthlows, asrisingSpanishbondyields increased anxietyover
howthatcountry'sbankswouldfareintheaftermathofaGreek
euroexit.
If anything, things seem to be getting worse (in Europe), as the
focusnowseemstoberevertingawayfromthepoliticaldeadlock
inGreeceandtowardsthedeterioratingratesituationinSpain.
Gold, which was down nearly 11 percent since April 30, was the
biggest gainer. The spot price of bullion rose 2.3 percent, its
biggestdailyadvancesinceJan.25.

The $35 jump past $1,573 an ounce came after data from the
Philadelphia Federal Reserve showed a contraction in factory
activity in the U.S. midAtlantic region. The data rekindled some
hope that the Fed would plow more money into the system to
stimulatetheeconomy.(Traders)

Even so, some questioned whether the rebound was little more
than a "deadcat bounce", slang for a small but temporary rally
thatfollowssignificantdeclines.
When the move to the upside is so elastic, it suggests a lot of
people caught at the wrong side, but also confirms the medium
negativetrend.(MilkoMarkov,investmentmanagementanalyst)

Inthebroadspectrum:

Thereisstillnoclearsignoflongtermtrendreversalyet.

Price actions from $1920.80 high are viewed as a medium term

consolidationpatternonly.

The first leg has finished with a five to $1522.50. The second leg is
completedat$1803.75.

Fall from $1803.75 is treated as the third leg of the consolidation and
shouldtarget$1522.50andpossiblybelow.

We would anticipate strong support from $1478.30 to complete the

consolidationandbringuptrendresumption.

Abreakof$1478.30indicatesthatdeepercorrectionistobeseenthrough
38.2%retracementof($681$1920.80)at$1449.

Above$1804.40willtargetateston$1920.80high.

Inthelongrunwouldanticipate$2045abovepsychological$2000level.

ExpectedWeeklyTradingRange:$1630$1440

May18,2012

ELIXIRSECURITIES
ElixirCommoditiesUAN111354947EXT31653147TEL+9221356939121516Email:COMMODITIES@ELIXIRSEC.COM

COMMODITIESNEWS

May18,2012

ELIXIRSECURITIES
ElixirCommoditiesUAN111354947EXT31653147TEL+9221356939121516Email:COMMODITIES@ELIXIRSEC.COM

ELIXIRCOMMODITIESTECHNICALREPORT
XAU/USD,Daily

XAG/USD,Daily

USOIL,Daily

Date

18May

17May

Date

Date

18May

17May

Open
High
Low
Close

1574.80
1589.36
1567.81
1585.42

1543.13
1579.65
1542.87
1574.98

Open
High
Low
Close

28.09
28.39
27.80
28.27

27.34
28.31
27.34
28.08

Open
High
Low
Close

92.59
92.77
91.59
92.56

92.92
93.86
92.08
92.60

20886

57627

Volume

9232

25507

Volume

9833

44580

Resistance3
Resistance2
Resistance1
Pivot
Support1
Support2
Support3

1625.58
1602.61
1588.80
1565.83
1552.02
1529.05
1515.24

1576.91
1564.50
1553.64
1541.23
1530.37
1517.96
1507.10

Resistance3
Resistance2
Resistance1
Pivot
Support1
Support2
Support3

29.446
28.876
28.479
27.909
27.512
26.942
26.545

29.150
28.555
27.940
27.345
26.730
26.135
25.520

Resistance3
Resistance2
Resistance1
Pivot
Support1
Support2
Support3

95.39
94.63
93.61
92.85
91.83
91.07
90.05

96.48
95.32
94.12
92.96
91.76
90.60
89.40

Bands(20)Upper
Bands(20)Lower

1696.67
1530.46

1839.10
1565.76

Bands(20)Upper
Bands(20)Lower

32.069
27.099

41.120
38.020

Bands(20)Upper
Bands(20)Lower

108.02
89.23

99.44
77.89

SAR
MA(200)
MA(100)
MA(50)
MA(30)
MA(10)

1598.15
1674.66
1677.74
1637.79
1623.81
1575.25

1609.44
1675.02
1678.52
1639.07
1626.16
1580.47

SAR
MA(200)
MA(100)
MA(50)
MA(30)
MA(10)

26.749
31.878
32.354
30.938
30.169
28.478

28.500
31.892
32.389
31.013
30.275
28.655

SAR
MA(200)
MA(100)
MA(50)
MA(30)
MA(10)

97.12
98.59
102.66
101.86
100.29
94.65

98.14
98.53
102.71
102.13
100.63
95.20

ADX(14)
+DI
DI

58.81
16.90
35.33

62.43
12.57
40.77

ADX(14)
DI+
DI

70.70
7.63
35.70

71.61
6.57
41.19

ADX(14)
DI+
DI

59.59
3.83
35.71

56.36
4.42
34.82

MFI(14)

23.24

18.42

MFI(14)

23.84

18.79

MFI(14)

7.08

6.82

MACD(12,26,9)
Signal

23.87
20.03

25.78
18.23

MACD(12,26,9)
Signal

0.94
0.81

0.97
0.77

MACD(12,26,9)
Signal

2.88
2.35

2.82
2.19

3075118

3054232

OBV

3648

5584

OBV

83145

92978

41.01

36.63

RSI(14)

32.58

29.52

RSI(14)

20.60

20.68

Volume

OBV
RSI(14)

18May 17May