Interview dates: Sept 20-24, 2012

Base: 1,313 registered voters (RV)

Base for Voting Intention: 1,095 Likely Voters (LV)

Ipsos Poll conducted for Reuters
DAILY ELECTION TRACKING 09.24.12
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Sept 20-24, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,313
American registered voters (age 18 and over) was interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured
using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points for Registered
Voters and 3.5 for Likely Voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error
are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited
to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero
but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

DAILY ELECTION TRACKER

Q1. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and
Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans
[END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?

All LIKELY
Voters (LV)
All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden
for vice president, the Democrats
49% 47% 86% 10% 32%
Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan
for vice president, the Republicans
43% 40% 7% 83% 39%
Wouldnt vote 1% 3% 3% 2% 4%
None / Other 3% 3% 1% 2% 8%
Dont know / Refused 4% 6% 4% 3% 17%

Q2. How familiar are you with the following public figure, taking into account all the ways you may have heard about them?

Republican Vice Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan
All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Very familiar 22% 15% 27% 20%
Somewhat familiar 34% 33% 37% 20%
Not very familiar 30% 32% 26% 41%
Have heard of it, but thats it 9% 12% 7% 11%
Have not heard about it 4% 6% 3% 7%

Q3. Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards these public figures?

Republican Vice Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan
All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Very favorable 20% 4% 41% 11%
Somewhat favorable 13% 6% 21% 13%
Lean towards favorable 16% 7% 23% 23%
Lean towards unfavorable 15% 20% 7% 27%
Somewhat unfavorable 10% 16% 3% 14%
Very unfavorable 27% 47% 5% 11%
Total favorable 49% 17% 85% 48%
Total unfavorable 51% 83% 15% 52%
1146 19
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Washington, DC 20036
(202) 463-7300



Q4. As you may have heard, Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney has chosen Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as
his Vice Presidential running mate. Does this make you more or less favorable towards Mitt Romney?

All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Much more favorable 17% 4% 32% 11%
Somewhat more favorable 13% 4% 24% 7%
No impact 44% 46% 38% 69%
Somewhat less favorable 8% 13% 4% 5%
Much less favorable 19% 33% 2% 8%
Total more favorable 29% 8% 56% 18%
Total less favorable 27% 46% 6% 13%


Q5. Do you think Paul Ryan is qualified to be President?

All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Yes 29% 6% 55% 26%
No 44% 68% 15% 29%
Dont know 27% 26% 30% 45%


Q6. Who do you think is more qualified to be President, [ROTATE] Joe Biden, the Democrat, or Paul Ryan, the Republican [END
ROTATE]?

All Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
Joe Biden, the Democrat 43% 74% 13% 30%
Paul Ryan, the Republican 36% 8% 70% 30%
Dont know 21% 18% 18% 40%









PARTY ID


All Registered
Voters (RV)
Strong Democrat 17%
Moderate Democrat 20%
Lean Democrat 8%
Lean Republican 6%
Moderate Republican 17%
Strong Republican 15%
Independent 12%
None of these 3%
DK 2%




How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals

The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribuon condioned on the parameter , i.e.,
Y$Bin(n,), where n is the sie of our sample. In this seng, Y counts the number of #yes#, or #1#, observed in the sample, so
that the sample mean (y ) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion . This model is often called the likelihood
function, and it is a standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. The Bayesian
1
statistics combines both
the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our
opinion about which are the plausible values for adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior
distribution is ones knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions
specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution ((/y)(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.

Our credibility interval for is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief
about which are the most plausible values for given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these
intervals based on n(0). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is
done within the Classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The
worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and = n / . Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the
normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:

+

V
n

..

For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for
complex weighting
2


Examples of credibility intervals for different base sies are below.

Sample size Credibility intervals
2,000 2.5
1,500 2.9
1,000 3.5
750 4.1
500 5.0
350 6.0
200 7.9
100 11.2




1
Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC |
ISBN: 158488388X | 2003

2
Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.