Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing for September 30, 2012---Page 1

In this update: Isolated Severe Storms possible Monday morning.

Key Points for this event: A line of showers and thunderstorms will move across the region Monday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. While the overall threat is low, a few strong to severe storms will be possible. The current weather picture: An upper level storm system, currently over the Red River Valley, will deepen today and force low pressure to lift northeast from western Louisiana this morning, to northern Mississippi by Monday afternoon. For today, a warm front extending from the low will generate widespread showers across SE Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. By early Monday, the warm front will lift north and a cold front will approach from the west. While much of the upper energy will push well north of the area, there will be just enough low-level Water vapor image with RAP 500-mb heights and Surface Pressure valid 1400Z 30 Sept. 2012. shear and instability in place to generate a few strong to severe storms.

Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing for September 30, 2012---Page 2

Impacts:

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the region in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms on Monday. While low-level shear is forecast to be sufficient for severe storms, the bulk of the upper energy associated with this system is expected to lift well north of the region by Monday morning. This should limit the overall scope of this event. However, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to cross the region along the approaching front, and a few of these storms could approach severe limits. The best chance for the strong to severe storms will be generally west of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers. At this time, the primary severe threat appears to be damaging straight line winds. However, an isolated tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out. Overall, this is expected to be a low-end event with very limited coverage of severe weather.

Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing for September 30, 2012---Page 3

Timing While showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible throughout today and into tonight, the severe threat is expected to be greatest between 5am ET/4am CT and 12pm ET/11am CT. The overall threat should diminish during the afternoon as the parent storm system weakens. The expected timing of the event is shown in the following graphics.

Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing for September 30, 2012---Page 4

Summary: Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday morning, primarily over Southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The overall threat is low, with damaging straight-line winds being the primary threat.

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee will continue to monitor this situation. If you have any questions, please give our office a call at 850-942-8833 or on our toll free line at 800-598-4562 and ask to speak to a meteorologist. We are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. You can also reach us on our Southern Linc phone at 1*77*184.