Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
October 12, 2012
Dealers Diary
Domestic Indices
The Indian markets are expected to open in the green today, tracking a positive
opening of the SGX Nifty in early trade. Most of the Asian markets too are trading
in the positive zone.
BSE Sensex
0.9
Nifty
1.0
55.9
5,708
MID CAP
1.2
76.6
6,671
The US market closed flat for the day despite upbeat jobs report released during
the day. The markets failed to sustain an early upward move before ending the day
flat. The early strength in the markets is partly attributable to bargain hunting as
the markets had declined in three previous consecutive trading sessions. The jobs
report said that initial jobless claims tumbled to four-year low of 339,000 in the
week ended October 6 from the previous week's revised figure of 369,000. The
European markets rallied higher on Thursday despite the S&Ps downgrade of
Spanish sovereign ratings due to some positive corporate news from the European
region.
SMALL CAP
0.8
59.5
7,108
(0.1)
(9.7)
7,533
94.7
7,451
The Indian markets ended the day higher on Thursday, with key benchmark indices
notching gains of ~1%. The markets which remained weak till pre-afternoon trade
recovered later to end the day strongly on account of positive data which emerged
from Europe. The markets would keenly observe the IIP data and quarterly results
which are expected to be released today.
Dow Jones
(1.0) (128.6) 13,345
NASDAQ
(0.4)
(13.2)
3,052
0.6
33.9
5,811
(0.6)
(49.5)
8,547
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 18,745 / 5,689 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 18,908 19,011 / 5,740 5,773 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
18,745 / 5,689 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
18,642 18,478 / 5,656 5,605 levels.
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
18,478
18,642
18,745
18,908
19,011
NIFTY
5,605
5,656
5,689
5,740
5,773
News Analysis
FII
2,067
266
MFs
Net
MTD
1,650
417
26,178
67,501
571
(306)
(4,262)
(10,754)
YTD
FII Derivatives (October 11, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
1,870
1,996
(126)
15,882
Stock Futures
1,452
1,764
(312)
30,749
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Unitech
27
17.5
Amtek Auto
JP Power
36
10.1
India Infoline
71
Jain Irrigation
73
226
6.6
Adani Enter
www.angelbroking.com
Company
173.7 18,805
1.3
1.3
169.1 13,140
AUTO
0.6
66.2 10,350
METAL
1.6
168.4 10,627
OIL & GAS
0.6
49.8
8,568
BSE IT
0.6
37.0
5,881
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Global Indices
FTSE
Nikkei
Hang Seng
0.4
79.5 20,999
Straits Times
(0.0)
(1.2)
3,033
Shanghai Com
(0.8)
(17.1)
2,103
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
INFY
2.9
1.3
$48.2
WIT
0.8
0.1
$8.7
IBN
1.0
0.4
$40.1
HDB
0.8
0.3
$37.8
Indian ADRs
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,637
898
Declines
1,199
541
130
77
Volumes (` cr)
Net Inflows (October 10, 2012)

Sales
(Close)
BANKEX
Unchanged
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Purch
(Pts)
BSE PSU
Advances / Declines
World Bank lowers Indias growth projection in FY2013 to 6%

External trade deficit worsens during September 2012
ICICI Bank reduces rates across home & car loan segment
MSIL lowers its volume growth forecast for FY2013 to 5-5.5%
2QFY2013 Result Preview: Infosys, HDFC Bank, HT Media
2QFY2013 Result Review: Electrosteel Casting
` cr
BSE HC
Chg (%)
Price (`)
chg (%)
80
(4.0)
Cadila Health
826
(3.6)
7.5
Lupin
550
(3.1)
6.8
Dish TV India
78
(3.1)
Godrej Cons
669
(2.5)
BSE
2,479
NSE
12,677
Market Outlook
October 12, 2012
World Bank lowers Indias growth projection in FY2013 to

6%
The World Bank in its latest India Economic Update lowered real GDP growth
forecast for the economy to 6% in FY2013 as compared to its earlier estimate of
6.9% (in its Global Economic Prospects report) in June 2012. It also expects
inflation to remain high driven by high food prices and reach 8% at end-March
2013 despite deceleration of average retail inflation in emerging and developing
countries from 7% during 2011, to 6% during the first eight months of 2012.
The World Bank has attributed the slowdown in growth mainly to structural issues
namely power shortages, corruption, investor uncertainty and tightening
constraints of land and infrastructure. It acknowledged the positive impact of
recent reform measures and highlighted additional reforms to drive growth such
as the reform of direct taxes, the implementation of the long-delayed GST, and
passage of the land acquisition and mining bills.
Earlier this week, the IMF slashed Indias growth forecast, for CY2012, sharply to
4.9% citing the adverse impact of factors such as slow approvals for new projects,
sluggish structural reforms, elevated policy rates and slowing external demand.
The World Banks forecast for global growth in 2012 as well as 2013 is largely inline with the IMF forecasts. It estimates high-income countries to grow by 1.4%
during 2012 and developing countries to grow by 5.3% during the same period. In
addition, akin to the IMFs outlook, it reiterates concerns on growth slowing
considerably both in advanced and emerging economies in case of tail-risk
scenarios materializing from the Eurozone crisis.
Further, given the inflationary situation and high fiscal deficit, it has emphasized
the limited room to revive growth through monetary policy or fiscal stimulus.
However, government expenditure can be rationalized by cutting subsidies and
increasing investments particularly in infrastructure.
External trade deficit worsens during September 2012

On account of the continuing weak external demand environment, due to slowing
growth in advanced economies, Indias trade deficit during September 2012
widened to USD 18080.38 million as compared to USD 15622.4 million in August
2012 and USD million 13194.87 million in September 2011.
The trend of de-growth in exports continued for the fifth straight month. Exports
during September 2012 declined sharply by 10.78% as compared to their level in
the corresponding period in 2011 and stood at USD 23698.30 million. On a
cumulative basis, exports for the period April-September FY2013 registering degrowth of 6.79% in USD terms.
Imports during the month reported a growth of 5.09% yoy in USD terms increasing
steeply from de-growth of 5.1% yoy in USD terms witnessed in August 2012.
Imports for September 2012 stood at USD 41778.68 million. Due to an increase
in crude oil prices during the year, oil imports registered growth of 30.74% yoy in
USD terms while non-oil imports reported a de-growth of 4.46% yoy in USD terms.
Cumulative imports for the period April-September FY2013 declined by 4.36% yoy
in USD terms and stood at USD 232927.13 million.
Market Outlook
October 12, 2012
Overall, the trade deficit during 1HFY2013 amounted to USD 89251.47 million
marginally lower than the deficit of USD 89397.39 million in the corresponding
period of the previous year. Going forward, we believe that the recent
appreciation in the INR is also likely to hurt export growth to some extent.
ICICI Bank reduces rates across home & car loan segment
ICICI Bank has decided to cut rates across home and auto loans segment, by
100bp and 75bp respectively. The new rates are applicable only for the festive
season from October till December. However, the clamor for shoring up higher
risk adjusted yields offering retail assets, has further intensified as most of banks
(largely PSUs) in the recent past, had reduced rates for their offerings in this
segment. We believed that it would be impractical for any loan segment to
maintain high risk adjusted yields for long and reduction of rates in the retail loan
space has corroborated our view. We had never factored in higher RoEs for retail
assets and hence our estimates and ratings remain same. We maintain our Buy
view on ICICI bank with a target price of `1,245. However intensified competition
in the retail assets is expected to be negative for HDFC bank and IndusInd Bank,
whose earnings and valuation are currently factoring in higher exposure to these
assets, in our view and hence we maintain out neutral view on HDFC bank and
IndusInd Bank.
MSIL lowers its volume growth forecast for FY2013 to 5-5.5%

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) has lowered its volume growth outlook for FY2013 to 5-5.5%
from 10-11% earlier. The scaling down of growth forecast by the management is
on expected lines considering the continued slowdown in the sector due to high
interest rates, slowing economic growth and increase in fuel prices. Further, the
recent strike at Manesar plant which lasted for around a month led to loss in
volumes. We had already lowered our volume estimates to 6% post the strike at
Manesar plant and to factor in the weak demand environment. At `1,370 the stock
is trading at 14.8x FY2014E earnings which is in-line with its historical average of
15x. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Result Preview
Infosys (CMP: `2,531 / TP: `2,687 / Upside: 6%)
Infosys is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the company
to post 2.8% qoq growth in USD revenue at US$1,801mn on the back of ~3%
qoq volume growth. In rupee terms, revenues are expected to come in at
`9,940cr, up 3.4% qoq. EBITDA margin is expected to increase by 110bp qoq to
31.9% aided by INR depreciation. PAT is expected to be at `2,314cr.
Key points to watch out for are: a) USD revenue growth guidance for FY2013, the
company provided guidance of atleast 5% FY2013 USD topline growth in July
2012, which we expect to the company to maintain, b) outlook for 3Q and
managements commentary on pricing trends, and c) hiring plans for the next
year. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of
`2,687.
Market Outlook
October 12, 2012
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
39,383
31.7
9,325
163.2
23.9
15.5
3.7
9.7
3.1
FY2014E
41,380
31.9
9,903
173.4
22.0
14.6
3.2
8.8
2.8
HDFC Bank 2QFY2013 Result Preview

HDFC Bank is expected to announce another healthy set of results for 2QFY2013.
We expect the bank to report a healthy NII growth of 24.1% yoy to `3,654cr. Noninterest income is expected to register growth of 22.9% yoy to `1,489cr, leading to
an operating income growth of 23.8% yoy to `5,144cr. Provisioning expenses are
expected to decline by 16.9% yoy to `304cr, leading to a healthy net profit growth
of 30.2% yoy to `1,562cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at valuations of 3.5x
FY2014E P/ABV. We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
ROA
ROE
P/E
P/ABV
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
21,753
4.4
6,731
28.7
149.7
1.8
20.7
21.6
4.1
FY2014E
26,811
4.5
8,420
35.9
177.4
1.9
21.9
17.2
3.5
March
HT Media (CMP: `95 / TP: `113 / Upside: 19%)

HT Media is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results. Its top-line performance is
expected to be subdued registering marginal 3% yoy growth to `504cr on account
of sluggish ad revenues (due to slowdown in GDP growth). OPM is likely to be flat
yoy at 14.5%. Consequently, recurring Profit is expected to grow by 2% yoy to
`48cr. At the CMP, HTML is trading at 11.7x FY2014E consolidated EPS of `8.1.
We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `113.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
2,111
14.7
178
7.3
11.3
13.0
1.4
5.8
0.9
FY2014E
2,263
14.8
196
8.1
11.2
11.7
1.3
5.0
0.7
Result Review
Electrosteel Castings (CMP: `22/ TP: -/ Upside: -)
Electrosteel Castings 2QFY2013 net sales increased by 5.2% yoy to `479cr.
However, the EBITDA increased by a massive 79.3% yoy to `81cr and EBITDA
margin expanded 704bp yoy to 17.0% due to higher top-line, lower raw material
costs and lower other expenditure during the quarter. The interest costs for the
company, however, increased by 72.9% yoy to `26cr on account of increase in
debt. Nevertheless, the reported net income increased substantially by 91.3% yoy
to `37cr mainly on account of increase in EBITDA. During 2QFY2013, there was
an exceptional item relating to write back of forex losses provided during FY2012
and 1QFY2013 amounting to `12cr. Excluding this exceptional item, adjusted net
profit grew by 28.3% yoy to `25cr.We keep our rating and target price under
review.
Market Outlook
October 12, 2012
Y/E
Sales
OPM
March
(` cr)
(%)
FY2013E
1,984
FY2014E
2,074
PAT EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
(`)
(%)
(x)
11.2
86 2.5
5.1
12.6
99 2.9
5.7
(` cr)
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
9.0
0.4
9.5
1.1
7.8
0.2
8.3
1.0
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

HDFC Bank - (12/10/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY13E
2QFY12
y-o-y (%)
1QFY13
q-o-q (%)
1,552
1,565
(1)
1,417
10
Net profit
Infosys Ltd - Consolidated (12/10/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
2QFY13E
2QFY12
y-o-y (%)
1QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
9,917
8,099
22
9,616
Net profit
2,359
1,906
24
2,289
2QFY13E
2QFY12
y-o-y (%)
1QFY13
q-o-q (%)
1,121
920
22
1,154
(3)
2QFY13E
2QFY12
y-o-y (%)
1QFY13
q-o-q (%)
92,239
78,569
17
91,875
8,170
9,844
(17)
6,747
21
8.9
12.5
5,322
5,703
Axis Bank - (15/10/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
Reliance Industries Ltd (15/10/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
7.3
(7)
4,473
Economic and Political News
Food Min urges states to expedite lifting of PDS grains

Exports slump 11% to $23.7bn in September
India Inc raises US$2.4bn through ECBs in August 2012
Government raises urea price by `50 per tonne
Corporate News
CIL to raise production capacity by 180 MT in 5 years

GAIL to give advance to PLL for 2.5 mt capacity at Dahej
RPower's 700 Mw hydro project receives clearance from CEA
Unitech to sell its Uninor stake to Telenor
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
19
Market Outlook
October 12, 2012
Result Calendar
Date
Company
October 12, 2012
Infosys, HDFC Bank
October 13, 2012
HT Media
October 14, 2012

October 15, 2012
Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, LMW
October 16, 2012
Mindtree
October 17, 2012
HCL Tech, CRISIL, Infotech Enterprises
October 18, 2012
Hind. Zinc, Ambuja Cements, ACC, Persistent
October 19, 2012
TCS, ITC, Mundra Port, Adani Power, Petronet LNG, Exide Industries, Zee Entertainment, South Ind.Bank, Tata Sponge
October 20, 2012
Bajaj Auto, UltraTech Cement, Federal Bank
October 21, 2012

October 22, 2012
HDFC, Larsen & Toubro, Cairn India, Idea Cellular
October 23, 2012
Hero Motocorp, Lupin
October 24, 2012

October 25, 2012
Adani Enterp., M&M, Kotak Mah. Bank, Asian Paints, Ipca labs
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
October 12, 2012
US
Last Reported
Estimated
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Sep
1.70
0.80
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Aug
0.10
1.00
October 13, 2012
China
% Change
Sep
2.70
5.50
October 15, 2012
India
% Change
Sep
7.55
7.70
China
Exports YoY%
Monthly Wholesale Prices
YoY%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Sep
2.00
1.90
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Sep
2.50
2.30
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
Sep
2.60
--
US
Industrial Production
Sep
(1.16)
0.20
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Sep
0.60
0.50
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Sep
750.00
770.00
US
Building permits
Thousands
Sep
801.00
815.00
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Sep
(15.00)
(2.50)
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Sep
8.90
9.00
% Change
3Q
7.60
7.40
Millions
Sep
4.82
4.72
Value
Oct A
(25.90)
--
Value
Oct A
49.70
--
Value
Oct A
47.40
--
Thousands
Sep
373.00
--
Oct 24
0.25
--
October 16, 2012
October 17, 2012
October 18, 2012
China
Real GDP (YoY)
October 19, 2012
US
October 23, 2012
Euro Zone
October 24, 2012
Germany
Existing home sales

Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
PMI Services
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
US
New home sales
US
FOMC rate decision
Bloomberg Data
Market Strategy
October 12, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
8.0
9.2
9.0
8.5
9.0
8.2
7.5
8.0
6.0
8.0
7.6
6.0
6.7
7.0
6.1
5.7
5.3 5.5
5.0
2.0
(6.0)
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
7.7
8.0
(1.8)
(5.0)
60.0
9.9
(1.3)
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
10.0
Dec-11
Nov-11
(2.8)
(4.0)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
6.9
7.4
7.7
7.5
7.6
7.6
6.9
7.6
56.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

(%)
Sep-11
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
48.0
Dec-11
50.0
0.0
Nov-11
2.0
Oct-11
52.0
Sep-11
4.0
Oct-11
54.0
6.0
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
60.0
(%)
9.00
45.0
8.00
30.0
7.00
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
8.00
7.00
6.00
4.50
5.00
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
4.00
Sep-11
(30.0)
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
0.0
Sep-12
15.0
(15.0)
Oct-11
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
4QFY09
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Sep-11
(2.0)
10.0
0.1
1.0
3.5
3.0
12.0
2.7
2.5
Oct-11
4.0
2.5
4.3
3.4
Aug-11
6.0
4.0
Market Outlook
October 12, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
147
2,866
1,466
1,686
14.8
14.8
7.0
8.1
21.1
18.2
4.5
3.8
22.6
22.5
2.0
1.7
United Phosphorus
Buy
126
170
5,829
8,421
9,263
16.5
16.5
15.0
17.0
8.4
7.4
1.2
1.1
15.6
15.5
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Neutral
218
3,724
2,844
3,275
15.4
15.6
15.9
18.8
13.7
11.6
3.5
2.8
28.9
26.9
1.2
1.1
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
88
99
4,435
13,412
15,041
11.3
11.0
12.1
14.2
7.3
6.2
1.3
1.1
19.6
19.2
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
24
30
6,372
14,920
16,850
9.0
9.3
2.2
2.8
11.0
8.7
2.0
1.8
13.3
15.6
0.5
0.5
Automotive Axle#
Neutral
380
575
993
1,140
11.6
11.5
36.9
43.0
10.3
8.9
2.0
1.8
21.2
21.3
0.7
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
1,758
50,878
21,285
23,927
18.2
18.3
108.5
121.3
16.2
14.5
6.7
5.4
46.1
41.3
2.1
1.8
Bharat Forge
Accumulate
300
351
6,983
7,004
7,985
16.2
16.4
20.3
25.1
14.8
12.0
2.7
2.3
20.0
20.9
1.2
1.0
Bosch India*
Neutral
8,865
27,834
8,793
10,294
17.4
18.5
348.3
435.8
25.5
20.3
4.9
4.1
19.4
20.1
2.8
2.3
CEAT
Buy
113
164
388
4,989
5,634
8.7
8.5
32.7
41.1
3.5
2.8
0.5
0.4
15.8
16.9
0.3
0.2
Exide Industries
Neutral
153
12,975
5,913
6,787
16.0
17.0
7.4
9.2
20.7
16.6
3.7
3.1
19.1
20.3
1.9
1.6
FAG Bearings*
Neutral
1,761
2,927
1,505
1,768
17.5
18.0
111.2
132.7
15.8
13.3
3.3
2.7
22.8
22.2
1.7
1.4
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
1,809
2,077
36,116
24,941
28,706
15.0
15.5
122.5
134.0
14.8
13.5
6.5
5.1
49.6
42.2
1.2
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
111
135
454
7,517
8,329
6.1
6.3
26.2
38.5
4.2
2.9
0.5
0.5
13.4
17.2
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
851
944
52,253
37,434
42,860
11.6
11.5
50.4
56.3
16.9
15.1
3.5
3.0
22.6
21.5
1.2
1.0
Maruti
Neutral
1,370
39,582
41,796
49,350
7.6
8.6
66.6
92.6
20.6
14.8
2.4
2.1
12.0
14.8
0.7
0.6
Motherson Sumi
Neutral
148
8,697
24,285
27,317
6.7
7.2
8.1
10.6
18.4
14.0
3.9
3.2
22.9
24.7
0.5
0.5
Subros
Buy
29
34
174
1,230
1,378
8.8
8.6
4.5
5.7
6.4
5.1
0.6
0.6
9.8
11.8
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
274
316
72,971 195,096 219,428
12.8
13.0
39.0
44.9
7.0
6.1
2.0
1.6
32.6
28.8
0.4
0.4
TVS Motor
Buy
41
49
1,943
7,611
8,443
7.9
7.9
4.7
5.4
8.7
7.6
1.5
1.3
17.9
18.1
0.2
0.2
ABB*
Sell
782
593
16,575
8,760
10,023
6.2
8.7
14.5
24.7
54.1
31.7
5.9
5.2
11.6
17.6
1.9
1.7
BGR Energy
Neutral
281
2,024
3,669
4,561
11.0
11.0
24.7
29.6
11.4
9.5
1.7
1.5
15.3
16.7
1.1
1.0
BHEL
Neutral
252
61,569
47,801
43,757
19.0
18.8
25.3
22.8
10.0
11.0
3.0
2.6
34.3
25.3
1.1
1.2
Blue Star
Neutral
213
1,912
3,047
3,328
5.4
6.9
12.5
16.2
17.0
13.1
4.1
3.4
26.1
28.2
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
138
141
8,872
12,691
14,126
7.4
8.9
7.0
9.7
19.8
14.3
2.3
2.0
11.9
15.0
0.7
0.6
Jyoti Structures
Buy
49
54
399
2,622
2,744
10.7
10.5
9.6
12.2
5.1
4.0
0.6
0.5
10.8
12.3
0.4
0.3
KEC International
Accumulate
69
78
1,785
6,858
7,431
7.1
7.5
8.3
9.8
8.4
7.1
1.4
1.2
25.1
24.0
0.4
0.4
LMW
Neutral
2,024
2,280
2,369
2,727
11.7
11.7
143.4
166.0
14.1
12.2
2.4
2.2
17.4
18.4
0.5
0.4
Thermax
Neutral
575
6,855
5,514
5,559
8.9
10.2
26.9
30.3
21.4
19.0
3.7
3.2
18.4
18.2
1.1
1.0
Capital Goods
Market Outlook
October 12, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,441
27,051
10,964
12,417
21.6
21.5
76.9
82.2
18.7
17.5
3.5
3.2
19.5
19.1
2.2
1.9
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
209
32,226
10,163
11,729
25.4
24.9
11.2
12.5
18.8
16.8
4.0
3.6
20.3
20.5
2.7
2.2
India Cements
Neutral
95
2,923
4,354
4,929
18.6
18.7
9.8
12.3
9.7
7.7
0.8
0.8
8.6
10.2
1.1
1.0
J K Lakshmi Cements
Neutral
109
1,334
1,964
2,278
19.5
20.4
16.3
17.9
6.7
6.1
1.0
0.9
14.7
14.6
0.9
1.2
Madras Cements
Neutral
181
4,318
3,608
3,928
27.6
27.0
15.7
18.3
11.5
9.9
1.8
1.6
16.9
17.0
1.9
1.6
Shree Cements^
Neutral
3,979
13,861
5,630
6,187
29.6
27.9
222.5
259.3
17.9
15.4
4.1
3.3
25.3
23.8
1.9
1.5
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
2,039
55,877
20,913
23,530
21.3
22.7
93.2
110.5
21.9
18.5
3.7
3.2
18.4
18.7
2.5
2.3
232
304
1,222
2,034
2,315
22.4
22.4
27.1
31.7
8.6
7.3
1.1
0.9
13.1
13.4
1.8
2.1
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
14
255
2,262
2,522
6.7
7.5
1.5
2.7
9.3
5.2
0.4
0.4
4.4
7.5
0.4
0.4
Hind. Const.
Neutral
18
1,113
4,239
4,522
9.9
11.2
(2.3)
(1.0)
(8.1)
(19.0)
1.0
1.1
(11.4)
(5.6)
1.2
1.2
IRB Infra
Accumulate
156
166
5,175
3,964
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.7
16.9
9.9
9.2
1.6
1.4
16.6
15.8
2.8
2.7
ITNL
Buy
186
232
3,604
6,840
7,767
26.4
26.1
24.4
30.3
7.6
6.1
1.1
1.0
16.0
16.2
2.7
2.9
IVRCL Infra
Accumulate
46
51
1,424
5,510
6,722
8.8
9.0
2.5
4.6
18.3
10.1
0.6
0.6
3.4
5.8
0.7
0.7
Jaiprakash Asso.
Accumulate
91
91
19,340
15,259
17,502
25.7
24.7
4.0
4.8
22.7
19.1
1.8
1.6
8.5
9.3
2.5
2.2
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
1,650
1,721
101,248
60,474
69,091
12.1
11.5
79.7
85.4
20.7
19.3
3.5
3.1
16.3
15.1
1.8
1.6
Madhucon Proj
Buy
37
56
273
2,206
2,502
10.7
10.7
4.6
4.7
8.0
7.9
0.4
0.4
5.2
5.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
52
1,329
5,804
6,513
8.0
8.6
3.0
3.5
17.0
14.8
0.5
0.5
3.2
3.6
0.6
0.7
Patel Engg.
Neutral
82
575
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
5.9
5.7
0.4
0.3
6.3
6.1
1.0
1.0
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
56
1,850
11,892
13,116
8.9
8.9
1.7
3.1
32.8
18.0
0.6
0.6
1.9
3.4
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
150
182
2,254
2,506
3,147
10.3
10.7
7.5
10.4
20.0
14.4
2.5
2.1
13.5
16.0
1.0
0.9
Simplex Infra
Buy
221
265
1,091
6,732
7,837
8.1
8.4
23.4
29.4
9.4
7.5
0.8
0.8
9.2
10.6
0.5
0.5
Allahabad Bank
Reduce
142
131
7,083
6,944
7,884
3.0
3.1
35.5
37.0
4.0
3.8
0.7
0.6
17.2
15.7
Andhra Bank
Reduce
Axis Bank
Buy
Bank of Baroda
Financials
110
97
6,133
4,929
5,633
3.1
3.1
23.7
24.5
4.6
4.5
0.8
0.7
16.6
15.3
1,135
1,326
47,036
15,425
18,500
3.1
3.2
115.9
137.5
9.8
8.3
1.8
1.5
19.9
20.1
Neutral
789
30,881
15,473
18,142
2.6
2.6
115.3
139.4
6.8
5.7
1.0
0.9
16.2
17.2
Bank of India
Accumulate
302
330
17,299
12,573
14,971
2.3
2.4
58.2
68.0
5.2
4.4
0.9
0.7
15.9
16.3
Bank of Maharashtra
Reduce
50
47
2,933
3,442
3,802
3.1
3.2
8.9
11.4
5.6
4.4
0.7
0.6
13.5
15.5
Canara Bank
Neutral
427
18,929
10,905
12,783
2.1
2.2
74.9
85.1
5.7
5.0
0.9
0.8
15.1
15.3
Central Bank
Neutral
76
5,565
7,095
8,102
2.5
2.7
15.6
21.0
4.8
3.6
0.8
0.7
12.2
14.7
Market Outlook
October 12, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Neutral
405
5,996
4,886
5,669
2.1
2.2
101.3
101.8
4.0
4.0
0.7
0.6
17.0
15.1
Dena Bank
Neutral
108
3,768
3,147
3,495
2.8
2.9
24.8
24.4
4.3
4.4
0.8
0.7
18.7
15.9
Federal Bank
Neutral
480
8,203
2,593
3,009
3.2
3.2
44.9
52.5
10.7
9.1
1.3
1.2
12.8
13.5
HDFC
Neutral
747
115,063
7,340
8,805
3.5
3.5
31.5
37.8
23.7
19.8
4.7
4.2
34.8
32.2
HDFC Bank
Neutral
625
147,500
21,753
26,811
4.4
4.5
28.7
35.9
21.8
17.4
4.2
3.5
20.7
21.9
ICICI Bank
Buy
1,058
1,245
121,656
22,304
26,855
2.9
3.0
68.6
82.0
15.4
12.9
1.9
1.7
14.2
15.6
IDBI Bank
Neutral
100
12,803
7,761
9,484
1.9
2.2
17.1
22.9
5.9
4.4
0.7
0.6
11.9
14.4
Indian Bank
Reduce
188
181
8,073
6,062
6,818
3.4
3.4
40.5
41.6
4.6
4.5
0.8
0.7
18.1
16.3
IOB
Accumulate
80
83
6,360
7,343
8,391
2.5
2.5
16.0
21.3
5.0
3.8
0.6
0.5
11.3
13.6
J & K Bank
Accumulate
1,083
1,021
5,252
2,600
2,850
3.6
3.5
192.3
188.0
5.6
5.8
1.1
1.0
21.0
17.7
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
262
301
13,222
1,867
2,338
2.4
2.4
21.1
28.5
12.4
9.2
2.0
1.7
17.5
20.4
Oriental Bank
Neutral
294
8,581
6,278
7,125
2.7
2.8
56.7
62.6
5.2
4.7
0.7
0.6
14.1
13.9
Punjab Natl.Bank
Accumulate
822
941
27,864
19,934
22,705
3.3
3.3
147.8
166.2
5.6
4.9
1.0
0.8
17.7
17.3
South Ind.Bank
Accumulate
23
25
3,098
1,535
1,760
2.9
2.8
3.5
3.9
6.6
5.9
1.1
1.0
19.5
17.1
St Bk of India
Accumulate
2,269
2,353
152,243
63,806
73,435
3.5
3.6
225.7
258.4
10.1
8.8
1.7
1.4
17.7
17.8
Syndicate Bank
Accumulate
115
117
6,913
6,722
7,719
2.9
3.0
24.3
27.2
4.7
4.2
0.8
0.7
17.0
16.8
UCO Bank
Neutral
77
5,132
5,411
6,124
2.4
2.5
17.0
16.5
4.5
4.7
0.9
0.8
16.7
14.4
Union Bank
Accumulate
202
226
11,146
9,924
11,647
2.8
2.9
38.6
46.3
5.2
4.4
0.9
0.7
15.4
16.3
United Bank
Buy
65
78
2,337
3,572
4,041
2.8
2.9
17.2
22.1
3.8
2.9
0.5
0.5
14.2
16.2
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
57
2,815
2,490
2,881
2.1
2.2
9.2
11.4
6.2
5.0
0.8
0.7
11.5
13.0
Yes Bank
Buy
397
452
14,145
3,270
4,253
2.8
3.0
33.9
42.2
11.7
9.4
2.5
2.0
23.1
23.6
3,895
37,363
11,198
13,184
16.3
16.3
121.0
144.8
32.2
26.9
10.8
8.5
37.4
35.3
3.3
2.8
500
584
5,975
5,835
6,824
5.7
6.0
20.7
25.4
24.2
19.7
9.5
7.3
43.1
41.9
0.9
0.7
1,236
16,803
3,018
3,429
20.9
22.2
35.7
42.3
34.6
29.2
32.0
23.8
101.0
93.5
5.3
4.6
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
130
22,728
6,124
7,030
17.0
16.8
4.5
5.2
29.2
25.2
12.0
9.5
43.2
41.5
3.7
3.1
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
3,016
12,683
3,124
3,663
17.1
17.6
104.5
123.8
28.9
24.4
9.0
7.2
34.4
32.8
3.7
3.1
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
670
22,805
6,097
7,233
18.4
18.6
21.9
26.5
30.7
25.3
6.8
5.6
25.5
25.4
3.9
3.3
HUL
Neutral
570
123,294
25,350
28,974
13.9
13.9
14.3
16.5
40.0
34.6
23.8
18.3
70.9
59.8
4.4
3.8
ITC
Neutral
283
222,255
29,513
33,885
35.4
35.8
9.3
10.8
30.5
26.2
10.1
8.4
35.6
35.0
6.9
6.0
Market Outlook
October 12, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
203
13,078
4,840
5,643
13.1
13.1
6.8
8.5
29.9
24.0
8.2
6.3
31.4
29.7
2.7
2.2
Nestle*
Neutral
4,641
44,748
8,610
10,174
20.9
21.2
114.8
139.8
40.4
33.2
24.4
17.0
71.2
60.3
5.0
4.1
Tata Global
Neutral
160
9,897
7,207
7,927
9.7
10.0
6.6
7.8
24.2
20.5
2.5
2.4
8.6
9.5
1.1
1.0
HCL Tech^
Accumulate
578
632
40,087
24,569
27,002
18.8
17.6
41.4
45.1
13.9
12.8
3.2
2.7
22.8
21.1
1.6
1.4
Hexaware*
Accumulate
114
140
3,383
1,966
2,161
22.5
21.4
11.6
12.2
9.9
9.4
2.6
2.2
26.8
23.9
1.5
1.3
Infosys
Accumulate
2,531
2,687
145,364
39,383
41,380
31.7
31.9
163.2
173.4
15.5
14.6
3.7
3.2
23.9
22.0
3.1
2.8
Infotech Enterprises
Neutral
189
2,108
1,895
2,049
18.0
17.5
18.1
19.5
10.5
9.7
1.5
1.3
14.5
13.7
0.8
0.6
KPIT Cummins
Buy
122
142
2,171
2,191
2,364
16.1
16.5
11.3
13.0
10.8
9.4
2.4
1.9
21.8
20.0
1.0
0.8
Mahindra Satyam
Neutral
113
13,316
7,628
8,062
19.9
18.4
9.7
10.0
11.6
11.3
3.2
2.5
27.7
22.2
1.3
1.1
Mindtree
Buy
660
772
2,702
2,334
2,481
19.5
17.6
70.4
77.2
9.4
8.6
2.2
1.7
23.3
20.4
0.9
0.8
Mphasis&
Neutral
408
8,570
5,700
5,993
18.0
16.9
37.0
37.3
11.0
10.9
1.6
1.4
14.3
12.6
1.0
0.9
NIIT
Accumulate
35
36
575
1,034
1,146
9.9
11.0
5.2
6.4
6.7
5.4
0.9
0.8
12.8
14.3
0.3
0.2
Persistent
Reduce
423
398
1,693
1,207
1,278
26.2
24.3
42.4
44.3
10.0
9.6
1.7
1.5
17.1
15.5
1.1
0.9
TCS
Accumulate
1,290
1,405
252,413
61,611
67,507
29.3
29.1
69.0
74.0
18.7
17.4
6.1
5.0
32.4
28.6
3.9
3.5
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
978
1,046
12,484
6,603
7,196
18.2
17.1
92.7
99.6
10.6
9.8
2.5
2.0
23.6
20.5
1.9
1.7
Wipro
Accumulate
359
421
88,349
43,800
48,332
19.5
19.3
25.6
28.1
14.0
12.8
2.7
2.3
18.9
17.9
1.8
1.5
D B Corp
Buy
218
236
4,002
1,604
1,786
22.3
23.8
11.2
13.7
19.6
16.0
3.7
3.2
20.3
21.4
2.2
2.0
HT Media
Buy
95
113
2,232
2,111
2,263
14.7
14.8
7.3
8.1
13.0
11.7
1.4
1.3
11.3
11.2
0.7
0.6
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
97
112
3,080
1,488
1,664
22.7
22.8
6.2
7.1
15.7
13.7
3.8
3.4
25.2
26.3
2.1
1.8
PVR
Neutral
207
538
625
732
17.4
17.1
13.3
15.6
15.6
13.2
1.7
1.5
13.2
13.8
1.2
1.0
Sun TV Network
Neutral
351
13,828
1,981
2,239
77.0
76.7
18.6
21.3
18.9
16.5
4.8
4.2
27.1
27.5
6.4
5.5
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
499
10,604
11,979
14,584
31.6
31.0
49.2
61.4
10.2
8.1
1.3
1.2
14.1
15.2
2.9
2.4
Coal India
Accumulate
359
385
226,473
69,808
75,550
27.4
27.4
26.0
28.3
13.8
12.7
4.0
3.2
32.5
28.1
2.3
2.0
Electrosteel Castings
Accumulate
22
23
770
1,984
2,074
11.2
12.6
2.5
2.9
9.0
7.8
0.4
0.2
5.1
5.7
0.5
0.5
Hind. Zinc
Accumulate
137
144
57,718
12,446
13,538
52.3
52.9
14.3
15.5
9.6
8.8
1.8
1.5
20.5
18.9
2.7
2.1
Hindalco
Neutral
118
22,611
84,855
92,446
8.7
9.3
13.2
16.2
8.9
7.3
0.7
0.6
7.8
8.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
773
17,247
38,740
41,459
17.3
17.0
79.9
89.4
9.7
8.7
1.0
0.9
10.4
10.6
0.9
0.8
MOIL
Accumulate
253
271
4,249
918
993
50.7
50.9
24.5
26.1
10.3
9.7
1.6
1.4
16.0
15.5
2.3
2.0
Monnet Ispat
Buy
300
379
1,933
2,511
3,303
23.8
26.0
46.3
57.3
6.5
5.3
0.7
0.7
12.4
13.7
1.7
1.2
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
October 12, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Reduce
NMDC
Accumulate
50
48
12,848
7,401
7,841
16.7
19.2
3.4
4.1
14.6
12.2
1.1
1.0
7.4
8.4
1.3
1.2
191
214
75,587
12,934
14,266
79.4
80.1
21.1
23.4
9.1
8.2
2.4
2.0
29.6
26.5
4.1
3.4
SAIL
Sesa Goa
Neutral
86
35,399
47,252
60,351
14.2
14.8
9.6
11.7
9.0
7.3
0.8
0.7
9.4
10.6
1.2
1.0
Neutral
174
15,135
7,704
8,034
33.6
34.6
42.0
43.1
4.2
4.0
0.8
0.7
22.3
19.2
2.2
2.1
Sterlite Inds
Neutral
102
34,362
41,680
45,382
24.2
23.2
16.3
16.9
6.3
6.0
0.7
0.6
11.3
10.7
0.8
0.7
Tata Steel
Buy
420
481
40,825 145,799 150,431
10.3
11.2
48.6
63.3
8.6
6.6
0.9
0.8
10.5
12.4
0.5
0.5
Sarda
Accumulate
132
148
475
1,251
1,321
22.7
23.4
33.0
37.1
4.0
3.6
0.6
0.5
15.1
14.8
0.8
0.7
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
53
73
715
2,694
2,906
14.6
16.6
16.4
20.8
3.2
2.6
0.3
0.3
11.4
12.8
0.5
0.4
Buy
121
161
383
2,341
2,425
15.6
17.3
33.3
43.2
3.6
2.8
0.4
0.4
13.2
14.4
0.5
0.5
Cairn India
Accumulate
330
380
62,997
16,605
17,258
75.4
71.7
57.0
54.9
5.8
6.0
1.1
0.9
20.2
16.3
2.8
2.2
GAIL
Neutral
375
47,568
50,176
55,815
15.5
15.8
35.4
36.5
10.6
10.3
1.9
1.6
18.9
17.0
0.7
0.5
ONGC
Accumulate
280
312
239,639 147,139 154,821
33.9
33.7
30.7
32.3
9.1
8.7
1.6
1.4
18.3
17.2
1.4
1.2
Reliance Industries
Neutral
820
268,350 362,700 380,031
7.9
8.0
61.5
64.3
13.3
12.8
1.3
1.2
10.3
9.9
0.7
0.7
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
301
3,819
11.5
11.3
19.2
22.1
15.7
13.6
4.2
3.8
28.7
29.0
1.3
1.0
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
257
3,591
3,040
3,135
24.3
26.7
24.8
27.9
10.4
9.2
2.4
2.0
25.5
23.6
1.3
1.1
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Accumulate
161
176
12,083
29,145
33,736
6.6
6.6
14.2
16.0
11.3
10.1
2.7
2.2
26.9
24.4
0.4
0.4
82
4,614
1,041
939
91.8
91.9
8.5
7.4
9.7
11.1
1.6
1.5
18.1
14.0
5.2
5.8
Alembic Pharma
Buy
Aurobindo Pharma
Accumulate
Aventis*
Neutral
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
Cipla
Neutral
Dr Reddy's
Accumulate
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
3,855
3,228
70
91
1,315
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
10.6
7.7
2.6
2.0
27.9
29.9
1.0
0.8
160
156
4,648
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
11.8
12.6
13.5
12.7
1.7
1.4
17.9
16.4
1.3
1.1
2,230
5,135
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.1
104.4
23.4
21.4
4.2
3.2
18.6
17.0
3.5
3.0
826
953
16,911
6,148
7,386
18.6
19.6
36.0
46.1
22.9
17.9
5.4
4.3
25.8
26.8
3.1
2.6
360
28,921
8,031
9,130
23.4
22.4
18.4
20.0
19.6
18.0
3.2
2.8
17.8
16.6
3.6
3.1
1,705
1,859
28,936
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
20.4
18.4
4.2
3.5
22.4
20.8
2.9
2.6
Neutral
96
774
1,280
1,536
17.8
17.8
9.2
11.3
10.4
8.5
0.8
0.7
7.7
8.5
1.3
1.1
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
1,969
16,681
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
25.9
23.9
7.5
6.7
20.1
26.3
5.5
4.8
Indoco Remedies
Buy
68
92
630
685
837
15.2
15.2
7.4
8.9
9.2
7.7
1.4
1.2
16.4
17.0
1.1
0.9
Ipca labs
Neutral
449
5,666
2,850
3,474
20.7
20.7
29.2
36.6
15.4
12.3
3.6
2.9
26.1
26.1
2.3
1.9
Lupin
Accumulate
550
647
24,573
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
26.3
31.3
20.9
17.6
4.9
3.9
26.0
24.7
3.2
2.6
Orchid Chemicals
Neutral
114
801
1,667
1,835
13.9
13.9
11.4
13.3
10.0
8.6
0.6
0.6
6.6
7.3
0.9
0.8
Market Outlook
October 12, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Pharmaceuticals
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
535
22,570
12,046
11,980
18.0
15.8
31.3
29.8
17.1
17.9
5.8
4.7
39.1
28.9
1.9
1.8
Sun Pharma
Neutral
722
74,654
9,752
12,134
41.6
41.6
26.0
28.2
27.8
25.6
5.2
4.5
20.3
18.8
6.6
5.1
CESC
Neutral
330
4,122
5,218
5,644
24.2
23.8
44.6
47.6
7.4
6.9
0.8
0.7
11.0
10.6
1.6
1.6
GIPCL
Accumulate
NTPC
Neutral
Power
69
77
1,039
1,557
1,573
29.3
28.7
10.8
11.0
6.4
6.2
0.7
0.6
10.8
10.2
1.2
1.0
168
138,400
74,111
85,789
22.7
23.1
12.1
13.7
13.9
12.2
1.7
1.5
12.6
13.2
2.5
2.3
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Accumulate
80
78
2,368
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
9.5
6.3
0.6
0.5
6.3
8.9
4.5
3.4
DLF
Neutral
221
37,598
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
23.1
16.5
1.5
1.4
6.4
8.7
6.5
5.4
HDIL
Buy
104
115
4,345
2,441
3,344
55.1
48.2
22.7
26.6
4.6
3.9
0.4
0.4
8.8
9.4
3.5
2.7
MLIFE
Neutral
404
1,652
813
901
26.2
26.6
32.0
37.1
12.6
10.9
1.3
1.2
10.4
11.0
2.3
2.0
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
267
101,470
79,147
86,745
31.1
32.5
9.9
15.1
26.9
17.7
1.9
1.7
7.0
9.7
2.0
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
82
27,083
22,582
24,684
26.4
26.9
3.3
4.7
24.6
17.3
1.9
1.7
7.8
9.9
1.7
1.5
Rcom
Neutral
61
12,611
20,650
20,935
32.3
33.0
4.2
5.8
14.4
10.6
0.3
0.3
2.3
3.1
2.3
2.1
Abbott India
Neutral
1,525
3,240
1,602
1,833
10.4
11.8
54.7
71.7
27.9
21.3
5.3
4.5
20.0
22.7
1.9
1.6
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
221
228
2,203
3,670
4,290
7.6
8.8
15.0
23.0
14.7
9.6
2.7
2.2
18.6
22.4
0.5
0.5
Cera Sanitaryware
Buy
375
388
474
396
470
16.7
16.6
31.0
35.0
12.1
10.7
2.7
2.2
24.8
23.0
1.1
1.0
Cravatex
Buy
453
682
117
289
340
5.2
5.9
41.0
57.0
11.0
7.9
2.8
2.1
25.2
26.5
0.5
0.4
CRISIL
Neutral
950
6,669
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
27.7
23.8
12.5
10.0
50.9
46.9
6.5
5.4
Finolex Cables
Buy
44
61
678
2,334
2,687
6.2
6.5
8.0
10.0
5.5
4.4
0.8
0.7
13.0
14.9
0.2
0.2
Force Motors
Buy
426
591
555
2,214
2,765
4.5
5.4
39.0
74.0
10.9
5.8
0.5
0.4
4.4
7.6
0.1
0.1
Goodyear India
Neutral
322
744
1,543
1,654
6.5
7.3
24.8
31.1
13.0
10.4
2.1
1.8
17.1
19.0
0.3
0.2
Disa India
Buy
2,942
3,353
444
176
203
22.7
22.6
182.5
209.6
16.1
14.0
8.4
6.6
51.8
47.1
2.2
1.8
Greenply Industries
Buy
233
309
563
1,925
2,235
10.6
10.9
29.6
44.1
7.9
5.3
1.3
1.1
16.8
21.0
0.5
0.4
Hitachi
Neutral
135
309
868
977
3.9
6.6
2.7
10.9
49.1
12.4
1.8
1.6
3.7
13.6
0.4
0.4
Honeywell Automation* Neutral
2,744
2,425
1,847
2,162
4.3
7.3
69.0
135.0
39.8
20.3
3.6
3.1
9.3
16.3
1.3
1.1
1,164
1,056
1,081
8.1
10.6
34.0
47.0
19.5
14.1
2.7
2.3
14.7
17.5
1.1
1.0
Telecom
zOthers
Styrolution ABS India*
Buy
662
744
ITD Cementation
Neutral
240
276
1,451
1,669
12.3
12.4
32.4
41.5
7.4
5.8
0.7
0.6
9.4
10.9
0.6
0.6
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
152
2,453
1,248
1,468
9.8
10.4
5.9
7.2
25.7
21.2
3.7
3.4
15.0
16.6
2.5
2.0
MCX
Accumulate
1,402
1,440
7,148
553
624
65.3
66.3
62.5
72.0
22.4
19.5
6.2
5.3
27.5
27.4
8.9
7.4
MRF
Buy
10,342
12,884
4,386
11,804
12,727
10.4
10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3
8.0
7.2
1.6
1.3
21.3
19.4
0.5
0.5
Market Outlook
October 12, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
3,407
744
821
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
3,800
887
1,108
18.3
18.6
95.0
120.9
35.9
28.2
18.7
15.2
57.4
59.5
4.0
3.2
893
1,019
1,208
12.3
13.0
51.0
68.4
14.6
10.9
3.9
2.9
30.3
30.2
1.0
0.8
zOthers
Page Industries
Neutral
Relaxo Footwears
Accumulate
Sintex Industries
Buy
74
79
2,022
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
5.4
4.7
0.7
0.6
12.9
13.2
0.8
0.6
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
292
392
273
1,042
1,173
12.4
12.5
66.3
78.5
4.4
3.7
0.9
0.7
21.1
20.8
0.5
0.4
S. Kumars Nationwide
Buy
19
24
564
7,134
7,985
19.7
19.4
12.2
14.1
1.6
1.4
0.2
0.2
11.3
11.5
0.6
0.6
SpiceJet
Buy
36
43
1,753
5,720
6,599
5.3
6.8
3.6
5.4
10.0
6.8
14.5
4.6
0.4
0.4
TAJ GVK
Buy
73
108
458
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
9.3
8.0
1.2
1.1
13.9
14.4
1.8
1.5
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
325
377
500
787
837
16.2
17.5
58.5
66.9
5.6
4.9
0.8
0.7
14.9
15.1
0.3
0.2
TVS Srichakra
Accumulate
307
335
235
1,476
1,643
7.0
8.2
32.6
55.9
9.4
5.5
1.5
1.2
16.8
24.8
0.4
0.3
United Spirits
Neutral
1,264
16,526
10,289
11,421
13.5
14.3
31.0
42.9
40.7
29.4
3.2
2.9
8.1
10.3
2.2
2.0
Vesuvius India
Neutral
370
750
560
611
16.1
17.0
24.7
28.8
15.0
12.9
2.2
2.0
15.8
16.2
1.1
1.0
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on October 11, 2012
Market Outlook
October 12, 2012

Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

October 12, 2012

(1.0) (128.6) 13,345

FII Derivatives (October 11, 2012)

OIL & GAS

Net Inflows (October 10, 2012)

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

World Bank lowers Indias growth projection in FY2013 to 6%

World Bank lowers Indias growth projection in FY2013 to

External trade deficit worsens during September 2012

MSIL lowers its volume growth forecast for FY2013 to 5-5.5%

HDFC Bank 2QFY2013 Result Preview

HT Media (CMP: `95 / TP: `113 / Upside: 19%)

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Infosys Ltd - Consolidated (12/10/2012)

Axis Bank - (15/10/2012)

Reliance Industries Ltd (15/10/2012)

Economic and Political News

Food Min urges states to expedite lifting of PDS grains

CIL to raise production capacity by 180 MT in 5 years

October 12, 2012

Infosys, HDFC Bank

October 13, 2012

October 14, 2012

Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, LMW

October 16, 2012

October 17, 2012

HCL Tech, CRISIL, Infotech Enterprises

October 18, 2012

Hind. Zinc, Ambuja Cements, ACC, Persistent

October 19, 2012

October 20, 2012

Bajaj Auto, UltraTech Cement, Federal Bank

October 21, 2012

HDFC, Larsen & Toubro, Cairn India, Idea Cellular

October 23, 2012

Hero Motocorp, Lupin

October 24, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

October 12, 2012

Producer Price Index (mom)

Industrial Production YoY

October 13, 2012

October 15, 2012

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Consumer price index (mom)

Jobless claims change

Industrial Production (YoY)

October 16, 2012

October 17, 2012

October 18, 2012

Real GDP (YoY)

October 19, 2012

October 23, 2012

October 24, 2012

Existing home sales

New home sales

FOMC rate decision

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI