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Decline Curves
Decline Curves
Decline Curves
making reserve estimates. There are other methods : Reservoir Simulation Decline Curve Analysis Neither volumetric methods nor material balance techniques address the problem of time. The methods have no explicit time indicators. Material balance equations rely on "production rates" to imply a time scale. We use history matching or assumed production rates to carry out the analysis. Both reservoir simulation and decline curve analysis have the added advantage that they allow us to predict reservoir performance through time.
RESERVOIR SIMULATION Reservoir simulation requires a complete three-dimensional description of three-phase flow in a reservoir where the fluid properties vary with temperature, pressure and composition (compositional simulator). One common simplification is to neglect the variation of fluid properties with the composition of the hydrocarbon mixture and assume dependence on P and T alone (blackoil simulator). The task remains very complex and requires large amounts of geological, petrophysical and petrochemical data and a complete understanding of the physics of porous media and the chemistry of hydrocarbon fluid mixtures. Reservoir simulation is beyond the scope of this introductory course and is covered by many texts and at least two SPE monographs.
DECLINE CURVES Decline curve analysis is a relatively simple empirical method that introduces a time variable into recovery prediction. Essentially, the pressure decline in the reservoir is "fitted" to one of three simple models: 1. exponential decline 2. hyperbolic decline 3. harmonic decline The harmonic curve is rarely used since it tends to be excessively conservative as a performance predictor. Each method involves "parameter fitting" where various empirical parameters are deduced from the historical performance of a reservoir. The decline curve is then used to extrapolate future performance.
EXPONENTIAL DECLINE The empirical model is: q = qi exp{ -Dt } where qi is the initial production rate (stm3/d), q is the production rate at time t (stm3/d), t is the elapsed production time (d), D is an exponent or decline fraction (1/d). Solving for D and t gives: D = - ln { q/qi } / t and t = - ln { q/qi } / D The cumulative production to time t (Np) is given by: Np = q dt = qi exp{ -Dt } dt = (qi - q) / D It follows that Np is a linear function of q.
t ln {q}
HYPERBOLIC DECLINE
The empirical model is: q = qi { 1 + bDit }-1/b
where 3 qi is the initial production rate (stm /d), 3 q is the production rate at time t (stm /d), t is the elapsed production time (d), Di is an initial decline fraction (1/d), b is the hyperbolic exponent (from 0 to 1).
Di = [ (qi/q)b - 1 ] / bt and t = [ (qi/q)b - 1 ] /Di b The cumulative production to time t (Np) is given by: Np = q dt = qi { 1 + bDit }-1/b dt = { qib / [ (1 - b)Di ] }[ qi1-b - q1-b ]
It follows that Np is a nonlinear function of q. Note that b=0 is the exponential model and b=1 is the harmonic model.
HARMONIC DECLINE The empirical model is: q = qi / { 1 + Dit } where qi is the initial production rate (stm3/d), q is the production rate at time t (stm3/d), t is the elapsed production time (d), Di is an initial decline fraction (1/d). Solving for Di and t gives: Di = [ (qi/q) - 1 ] / t and t = [ (qi/q) -1 ] / Di The cumulative production to time t (Np) is given by: Np = q dt = qi { 1 + Dit }-1 dt = { qi / Di ] } ln { qi/q } It follows that Np is a logarithmic function of q.