Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 20

Market Outlook

October 26, 2012

Dealers Diary

Domestic Indices

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

The Indian markets are expected to open in the red following negative start to SGX
Nifty and other major Asian indices.

BSE Sensex

0.3

48.6 18,759

Nifty

0.2

13.9

5,705

The US markets ended slightly higher on Thursday as several reports indicated a


more favorable outlook for the global economy. The initial strength on Wall Street
was partly due to a positive reaction to a batch of largely upbeat economic data,
including a report showing that the UK emerged from recession in 3QCY2012.
The UK economy grew 1% after contracting in each of the three previous quarters.
According to the US Labor Department release, initial jobless claims showed a
bigger than expected drop to 369,000 from the previous week's revised figure of
392,000. Additionally, a report from the Commerce Department showed that
durable goods orders rebounded by 9.9% in September after tumbling by 13.1% in
August. However, pending home sales numbers increased slightly
lower-than-expected by 0.3% to a reading of 99.5 in September.

MID CAP

0.2

10.1

6,659

SMALL CAP

(0.2)

(12.1)

7,161

BSE HC

(0.4)

(27.5)

7,570

BSE PSU

(0.2)

(12.4)

7,347

BANKEX

0.4

46.6 13,340

AUTO

0.6

59.3 10,207

METAL

(0.2)

(20.9) 10,235

Going ahead, earning releases and economic data may attract attention on Friday.
The Commerce Department is scheduled to release its initial report on US GDP in
the third quarter.

Dow Jones

0.2

NASDAQ

0.2

4.4

2,986

FTSE

0.0

0.3

5,805

Markets Today

Nikkei

1.1

100.9

9,055

Hang Seng

0.2

46.5 21,810

The trend deciding level for the day is 18,749 / 5,703 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 18,799 18,840 / 5,721 5,736 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
18,749 / 5,703 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
18,708 18,658 / 5,688 5,670 levels.

Straits Times

0.4

12.8

3,058

(0.7)

(14.4)

2,102

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

INFY

1.1

0.5

$43.5

Indices
SENSEX
NIFTY

WIT

(0.2)

(0.0)

$8.1

IBN

1.4

0.5

$40.3

HDB

1.6

0.6

$37.4

S2
18,658
5,670

S1
18,708
5,688

PIVOT
18,749
5,703

R1
18,799
5,721

R2
18,840
5,736

OIL & GAS


BSE IT
Global Indices

Shanghai Com
Indian ADRs

0.2

13.9

8,470

(0.1)

(5.8)

5,692

(Pts)

(Close)

Chg (%)

26.3 13,104

News Analysis

Sun TV buys IPL franchise


Apollo Tyres workers at Limda plant goes on strike
CESC to acquire controlling stake in Firstsource
IRB shocks crashes on reports of Gadkari links
2QFY2013 Result Review: MM, Asian Paints, Nalco, OBC, Ipca Labs, BEL
2QFY2013 Result Preview: NTPC, ICICI, HUL, Gail, PNB, Dabur JSW Steel,
Sesa Goa, IOB, United Bank

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (October 23, 2012)


` cr
FII
MFs

Purch
2,319
297

Sales
1,893
495

Net
427
(198)

MTD
12,637
(2,284)

YTD
57,842
(10,206)

FII Derivatives (October 25, 2012)


` cr
Index Futures
Stock Futures

Purch
6,317
8,429

Sales
5,413
9,160

Net
904
(731)

Open Interest
10,172
27,933

Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company

Losers

Price (`)

chg (%)

Price (`)

chg (%)

Oriental Bank

314

7.1

IRB Infra.

119

(15.7)

Indiabulls Fin.

254

4.7

Havells India

620

(4.2)

Bajaj Finserve

922

4.4

Sun TV Network

344

(3.5)

Yes Bank

417

4.3

Oberoi Realty

270

(3.4)

M&M

858

3.6

United Spirits

1,225

(3.1)

www.angelbroking.com

Company

Advances / Declines

BSE

NSE

Advances

1,288

603

Declines

1,556

903

138

67

Unchanged
Volumes (` cr)

BSE

2,543

NSE

13,541

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

Sun TV buys IPL franchise


Sun TV has bought the Indian Premier League (IPL) Hyderabad franchise for
`85.05 crores per year. The BCCI had set a base price of `300 crore for the 10year contract for the new IPL team to replace Deccan Chargers. According to
media reports, Sun TV has submitted a `20cr performance deposit during the
submission of bids, which BCCI would forfeit if they fail to provide an annual bank
guarantee of `405.3cr. V C Unnikrishnan, CFO of Sun TV said that the acquisition
of IPL team in Hyderabad will be funded through internal accruals. He expected
the acquisition to enhance the brand image of Sun TV. We maintain our Neutral
view on the stock.

Apollo Tyres workers at Limda plant goes on strike


Apollo Tyres Limda plant has witnessed a labor strike due to which the production
at the plant has been disrupted from October 23, 2012. The workers have been
protesting against the company's refusal to recognize the newly formed workers'
union Bharatiya Majdoor Sangh (BMS) within the plant as well as suspension of
two employees. According to media reports, workers are unhappy as two
committees formed for the welfare of the workers in the past could not address the
workers' concerns. As per reports, ~1,500 workers (total strength ~7,000) have
stopped going to work since October 23, 2012 and have threatened to go on
indefinite strike soon if their demands are not met. The management is making all
efforts to resolve the issue. The Limda plant has a production capacity of
475MT/day and manufactures passenger car radial, truck and bus (bias) and off
the road tyres. While, we see this as negative for the company; we would await
more clarity on this development. At `86, the stock is trading at 6.1x FY2014E
earnings. Currently, we have a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `99.

CESC to acquire controlling stake in Firstsource


CESC has agreed to pay around `400cr for a 49.5% holding in Firstsource. The
deal values Firstsource at `795cr on its expanded equity base. At its current stock
price, Firstsource has a market capitalization of `613cr. CESC will acquire 34.5%
in Firstsource through a preferential allotment and a further 15% from the existing
investors (ICICI Bank, Aranda Investment of Temasek Holdings, and Metavante
Investments) for `12.2 apiece. CESC will also offer to buy another 26% from
public shareholders. We maintain Neutral on the stock.

IRB shocks crashes on reports of Gadkari links


The share price of IRB Infrastructure came under pressure for its improper business
link with Nitin Gadkari as alleged in the media reports. IRB has denied this
allegation in the clarification issued to the stock exchange. We await for clarity on
this matter and continue to maintain our Buy view on the stock since we dont see
any serious concerns relating to the companys fundamentals.

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

Result Review
Mahindra and Mahindra (CMP: `858/ TP: `944/ Upside: 10%)
Mahindra and Mahindra (MM) reported extremely strong results for 2QFY2013
riding on the robust growth of its automotive segment. For 2QFY2013, top-line
registered an in-line growth of 33.4% yoy (4.8% qoq) to `9,813cr driven by 58.3%
yoy (13.9% qoq) growth in the automotive segment revenues. Total volumes
registered a modest growth of 6.9% yoy (2.9% qoq) as the farm equipment
segment volumes declined 13.1% yoy (16.3% qoq) in the wake of a below normal
monsoon. Automotive segment volumes, however, posted a strong 16.3% yoy
(12.1% qoq) growth led by 31.5% yoy growth in the utility vehicle portfolio backed
by XUV5OO. The net average realization jumped 15.6% yoy (down 6% qoq) led by
higher share of premium products (mainly XUV5OO) in the volume-mix and price
increases over the last one year.
On the operating front, EBITDA margins contracted 60bp yoy (44bp qoq) to 11.4%
largely due to raw-material cost pressures. As a result, total raw-material cost as a
percentage of sales increased 234bp yoy (flat qoq) to 74.9%. However, employee
and other expenditure declined by 100bp and 80bp yoy respectively mainly due to
operating leverage benefits. EBIT margins in the automotive and farm equipment
segments declined by 53bp (up 59bp qoq) and 55bp yoy (90bp qoq) to 9.4% and
14.8%, respectively. Nonetheless, led by strong volume growth in the automotive
segment, automotive EBIT registered an impressive growth of 49.9% yoy (21.5%
qoq). As a result, MMs adjusted net profit grew strongly by 22.4% yoy (24.3%
qoq) to `902cr. The benefits of 30% yoy growth in other income (due to 28.2%
increase in dividends from subsidaries) were negated by 41.9% yoy (15.2% qoq)
increase in depreciation expense (related to Quanto launch) during the quarter. At
`858, the stock is trading at 15.2x FY2014E earnings. Currently we have an
Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `944. We shall revise our
estimates and come up with a detailed result update soon.
Y/E
March
FY2013
FY2014

Sales
(` cr)

OPM
(%)

PAT
(` cr)

EPS
(`)

ROE
(%)

P/E
(x)

P/BV
(x)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

EV/Sales
(x)

37,434
42,860

11.6
11.5

2,966
3,317

50.4
56.3

22.6
21.5

17.0
15.2

3.6
3.0

9.5
8.1

1.0
0.8

Asian paints (CMP: `3,898/ TP: -/Upside: -)


Asian Paints posted a 16.2% yoy growth in its consolidated topline to `2,616cr,
which was slightly ahead of our estimates. The topline growth is largely on account
of price hikes taken by the company as volume growth is expected to have been
muted. OPM fell by 54bp yoy to 13.8%. Bottomline rose by 14.6% yoy to `239cr.
We maintain a neutral view on the stock.
Y/E
March
FY2013
FY2014

Sales
(` cr)

OPM
(%)

PAT
(` cr)

EPS
(`)

ROE
(%)

P/E
(x)

P/BV
(x)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

EV/Sales
(x)

11,198

16.3

1,161

121.0

37.4

32.4

10.9

20.0

3.3

13,184

16.3

1,389

144.8

35.3

27.0

8.5

16.8

2.7

Nalco (CMP: `50 /TP: /Upside: -)


Nalco reported an operating loss for 2QFY2013 due to lower aluminium prices
and higher power and fuel costs. Results were significantly below our expectations.

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

Net sales grew marginally by 0.1% yoy to `1,586cr (below our estimate of
`1,890cr). Its aluminium production decreased by 2.9% yoy to 102,000 tonnes
while alumina production increased by 2.6% yoy to 398,000 tonnes. Power costs
as a percentage of net sales stood at 47.5%, compared to 40.3% in 2QFY2012.
Further, other manufacturing expenses as a percentage of net sales stood at
19.4%, compared to 6.3% in 2QFY2012. Hence, Nalco reported an EBITDA loss
of `2cr, compared to an EBITDA of `153cr reported in 2QFY2012. Other income,
however, grew by 5.3% yoy to `139cr. Consequently, the company reported a net
profit of `5cr (significantly above our estimate of `212cr), compared to `139cr in
2QFY2012. We recommend Reduce rating on the stock while we keep our target
price under review.
Y/E
March
FY2013
FY2014

Sales
(` cr)

OPM
(%)

PAT
(` cr)

EPS
(`)

ROE
(%)

P/E
(x)

P/BV
(x)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

EV/Sales
(x)

7,401
7,841

16.7
19.2

882
1,055

3.4
4.1

7.4
8.4

14.6
12.2

1.1
1.0

7.5
6.3

1.3
1.2

OBC (CMP: `314/ TP: -/ Upside: -)


OBC reported a strong performance for 2QFY2013. The banks net profit grew by
a strong 80.2% yoy to `302cr, which were lower than our estimates due to higher
tax rate than estimated by us.

The bank has shed ~6,000cr of bulk deposits during the last 6 months
leading to slower growth on the advances front. The bank is expected to pick
up pace in its loan growth hereon and as per the management excess SLR and
traction in retail deposits, despite further reduction in bulk deposits, should be
able to fund higher loan growth. Reduction in bulk deposits has led to
improvement in margins for the bank on a sequential basis.
The banks restructuring book increased by `329cr during 2QFY2013, taking
the total restructuring book to `11,493cr. The management expects `2,500cr
of restructuring during 2QFY2013. Slippages were under control during
2QFY2012 with annualised slippage rate at 2.3%. Gross NPA stood at 2.9%
while the net NPA for the bank stood at 2.1%.
Following the strong run-up in the stock recently, we recommend Neutral
rating on the stock
Y/E
March

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013

6,278

2.7

1,654

56.7

405.6

0.9

14.1

5.0

0.7

FY2014

7,125

2.8

1,827

62.6

457.2

0.9

13.9

4.5

0.6

IPCA Labs (CMP `463/ TP: -/ Upside: -)


IPCA Labs results were above expectations. Ipcas top-line grew by 22.6% to
`758cr for 2QFY2013. The OPM came just in line with the expectations at 21.8%,
a decline of 280bp yoy. However, in spite of the same the net profit came in at
Rs125cr, up 60.5% yoy, on account of the higher rise in other income and the
interest expenses. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

Y/E
March
FY2013
FY2014

Sales
(` cr)

OPM
(%)

PAT
(` cr)

EPS
(`)

ROE
(%)

P/E
(x)

P/BV
(x)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

EV/Sales
(x)

2,850
3,474

20.7
20.7

368
462

29.2
36.6

26.1
26.1

15.9
12.6

3.7
3.0

10.7
8.7

2.2
1.8

Bajaj Electricals Ltd (CMP: `215/ TP: `238/ Upside: 10%)


Bajaj Electricals Ltd. (BEL) reported decent set of numbers for 2QFY2013. Top-line
grew by 4.7% yoy and 10.2% qoq and came in at `734cr, vis--vis our expectation
of `830cr. EBITDA stood at `24cr which was lower by 53.7% yoy and 29.6% qoq.
Overall operating margins dip by 250bp qoq and 418bp yoy and came in at
3.3%.
Revenue from consumer durables segment grew by 17.5% yoy and came in at
`399cr (54.3% of total revenue). EBIT for the segment came in at `37cr, 14.3%
higher yoy while the margins declined by 20bp yoy to 9.3%.
Lighting segment grew by 6.6% yoy and came in at `202cr contributing 27.5% to
BELs total revenue. Profit for the segment stood at `13cr almost flat yoy while the
margins declined by 40bp to 6.5%.
Engineering & Projects segments revenue de-grew by 22.5% yoy and came in at
`133cr (18% of total revenue) and reported a loss of `27cr which was though
offset by onetime income of `24.7cr accrued from sale of BELs entire 50%
holdings in Bajaj Ventures to Black and Decker during the quarter. E&P projects
which have been hurting the profitability, on account of delay in completion
coupled with cost overrun is expected to end 18 of its 24 old sites by FY2013
thereby improving the profitability thereafter.
Tax expense for the quarter was low at `5cr, 17% of PBT which helped to sustain
the bottom line at `27cr vis--vis `25cr in the same quarter previous year and our
estimate of `27.6cr. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with
target price of `238 based on target PE of 13x for FY2014E.
Y/E

www.angelbroking.com

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

Mar

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

FY2013E
FY2014E

3,649
4,235

5.3
7.7

98
182

10
18

ROIC

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

18.3
29.4

21.8
11.8

2.8
2.3

12.0
7.0

0.6
0.5

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

Result Preview
NTPC (CMP: `170 / TP: - / Upside: - %)
For 2QFY2013, we expect NTPC to record a 4.9% yoy increase in its top line to
`16,126cr, driven largely by better realizations. Operating Margins are expected
to expand by 114bp yoy to 22.2% due to better plant availability. However, Net
profit is expected to decline by a marginal 2.5% yoy to `2,365cr. We remain
Neutral on the stock.
Y/E
March

Sales OPM
(` cr)

PAT

EPS ROE
(`)

(%)

P/E P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(%)

(` cr)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

74,111 22.7

9,972

12.1 12.6 14.0

1.7

11.0

2.5

FY2014E

85,789 23.1

11,333

13.7 13.2 12.3

1.6

10.0

2.3

ICICI Bank- (CMP: `1,079 / TP: - 1,245/ Upside: - 15.4%)


ICICI Bank is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the
bank to report a strong 31.8% yoy growth in Net Interest Income to `3,303cr.
Growth in non-interest income is expected to reasonable healthy at 16.9% yoy to
`2,033cr. Provisioning expenses are expected to increase by 51.9% yoy to `484cr,
hence PAT is expected to grow by a relatively lower, but stills strong 24.2% yoy to
`1,868cr.
At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.7x FY2014E ABV. We maintain our Buy
recommendation on the stock with a target price of `1,245.
Y/E
March

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

EPS ABV ROA ROE


(`)

(%)

(x)

P/E

P/ABV

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

22,304

2.9

7,904

68.6 568.6

1.4 14.2

15.7

1.9

FY2014E

26,855

3.0

9,456

82.0 622.1

1.4 15.5

13.2

1.7

HUL (CMP: `564/ TP: -/Upside: -)


HUL is expected to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the topline to
grow by 11.5% yoy to `6,155cr aided by healthy double-digit growth in both the
Soaps & Detergents and the Personal Products segments. OPM is expected to
remain flat at 13.3%. Bottomline is expected to grow by 11.4% yoy to `718cr. We
maintain a neutral view on the stock.

www.angelbroking.com

Y/E

Sales OPM

March

(` cr)

(%)

PAT
(` cr)

EPS ROE
(`)

(%)

P/E P/BV
(x)

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

25,350 13.9

3,081

14.3 70.9 39.6 23.5

33.2

4.6

FY2014E

28,974 13.9

3,561

16.5 59.8 34.2 18.1

28.6

4.0

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

GAIL (CMP: `360/ TP: -/ Upside: -)


GAIL is expected to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the
companys top-line to grow by 25.7% yoy to `12,196cr. However, the operating
margin is expected to contract by 159bp yoy to 15.7% on the back of higher
depreciation and interest costs. On the bottom-line front, we expect GAIL to report
an increase of 3.2% yoy to `1,129cr due to decrease in operating margins. We
maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Y/E

Sales OPM

March

(` cr)

PAT

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

4,488

35.4 18.9 10.2

1.8

5.2

0.8

4,634

36.5 17.0

1.6

4.3

0.7

(%)

(` cr)

FY2013E

50,176 15.5

FY2014E

55,815 15.8

EPS ROE
(`)

P/E P/BV

(%)

9.9

Punjab National Bank (CMP: `818 / TP: - 966/ Upside: - 18%)


PNB is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the bank to
report a flat bottom-line growth to `1,210cr. Operating income is expected to
grow by moderate 11.1% yoy, driven by 20.9% yoy growth in non-interest income.
The banks asset quality has been deteriorating lately and hence we have factored
in a 39.1% yoy growth in provisioning expenses. At the CMP, the stock is trading at
0.8x FY2014E ABV. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a
target price of `966.
Y/E
March

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

19,934

3.3

5,011

147.7

843.3

1.0

17.7

5.4

0.9

FY2014E

22,705

3.3

5,638

166.2

990.5

1.0

17.3

4.8

0.8

Dabur (CMP: `133/ TP: -/ Upside: -)


Dabur is expected to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the topline
to grow by 21.3% yoy to `1,531cr. Topline growth is expected to be driven by both
higher volume and price hikes. OPM is expected to decline by 189bp yoy to
16.9%. Bottomline is expected to grow by 9.5% yoy to `190cr. We maintain a
neutral view on the stock.
Y/E

Sales OPM

March

(` cr)

(%)

PAT
(` cr)

EPS ROE
(`)

(%)

P/E P/BV
(x)

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

6,124 17.0

779

4.5 43.2 29.7 12.2

22.6

3.8

FY2014E

7,030 16.8

902

5.2 41.4 25.6

19.7

3.3

9.7

JSW Steel (CPM: `730/ TP: -/ Upside: -)


JSW Steel is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results on 28.10.2012. We expect
its standalone net sales to grow by 9.0% yoy to `8,315cr mainly on account of
increased sales volumes as well as realizations and operating margin is expected
to expand by 220bp yoy to 19.2% mainly on account of lower raw material costs.
Nevertheless, the net profit is expected to increase by 27.8% yoy to `818cr. We
maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

Y/E

Sales OPM

March

(` cr)

PAT

(%)

(` cr)

EPS ROE
(`)

(%)

P/E P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

38,740 17.2

1,782

79.9 10.4

9.1

0.9

4.9

0.9

FY2014E

41,459 17.0

1,994

89.4 10.6

8.2

0.8

4.8

0.8

Sesa Goa (CMP: `169/ TP:-/ Upside :-)


Sesa Goa is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 result today. We expect the
companys top-line to decrease by 8.2% yoy to `725cr and its EBITDA margin to
contract by 781bp yoy to 25.1% due to decline in iron ore prices, rising costs and
higher export duty. Nevertheless, the bottom-line is expected to grow by 5.1% yoy
to `247cr despite a decline in operating profits due to contribution of share of
profits from its associate, Cairn India. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Y/E
March

Sales OPM
(` cr)

PAT

EPS ROE
(`)

P/E P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(%)

(` cr)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

7,704 33.6

3,737

42.0 22.3

4.0

0.8

6.6

2.2

FY2014E

8,034 34.6

3,830

43.1 19.2

3.9

0.7

6.0

2.1

Indian Overseas Bank (CMP: `80 / TP: - / Upside: -)


Indian Overseas Bank is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We
expect the bank to report a moderate Net Interest Income (NII) growth of 9.8% yoy
to `1,390cr. Non-interest income is expected to decline by 5.9% yoy to `402cr.
Operating expenses of the bank are expected to be higher by 11.3% yoy to
`876cr. However, Net Profit is expected to go up by strong 44.6% yoy to `300cr,
on account of 21.9% yoy decline in provisioning expenses (on high base of
2QFY2012). At the CMP, the stock trades at a valuation of 0.5x FY2014E ABV. We
maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

7,343

2.5

1,274

16.0 139.8

0.5

11.3

4.9

0.6

FY2014E

8,391

2.5

1,697

21.3 157.7

0.6

13.6

3.7

0.5

March

United Bank (CMP: `66 / TP: `81 / Upside: 22.7%)


United Bank is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the
bank to report a moderate NII growth of 13.5% yoy to `707cr. Operating
expenses are expected to increase by 8.6% yoy, leading to operating profit growth
of 7.1% on a yoy basis at `482cr. However, 6.9% yoy decline in provisioning
expenses would aid strong Net Profit growth of 30.2% on a yoy basis to `162cr. At
the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.5x FY2014E ABV. We maintain our Buy
recommendation on the stock with a target price of `81.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

3,572

2.8

700

17.2 121.7

0.7

14.2

3.7

0.5

FY2014E

4,041

2.9

875

22.0 141.0

0.7

16.2

2.9

0.5

March

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate


Dabur India Consolidated (26/10/2012)
Particulars (` cr)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,515

1,262

20

1,462

EBITDA

272

241

13

232

17

EBITDA margin (%)

18.0

19.1

Net profit

199

174

14

172

16

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

11,270

9,699

16

11,089

1,761

1,676

1,922

(8)

15.6

17.3

1,060

1,094

(3)

1,134

(7)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

6,273

5,522

14

6,250

EBITDA

929

827

12

976

(5)

EBITDA margin (%)

14.8

15.0

Net profit

772

689

12

1,331

(42)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,874

1,815

1,503

25

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

428

524

(18)

381

12

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

15,552

15,378

15,960

(3)

3,392

3,560

(5)

3,837

(12)

21.8

23.1

2,170

2,424

Net sales

15.9

Gail (26/10/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit

17.3

Hindustan Unilever (26/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

15.6

ICICI Bank (26/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

IDFC Consolidated (26/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

NTPC (26/10/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit

24.0
(10)

2,499

(13)

Punjab National Bank (26/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,241

1,205

1,246

(0)

Sesa Goa Consolidated (26/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

373

784

(52)

1,725

(78)

96

260

(63)

676

(86)

EBITDA margin (%)

25.6

33.2

Net profit

596

Net sales
EBITDA

www.angelbroking.com

39.2
45746

964

(38)

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

IDBI Bank (27/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

532

516

427

25

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

8,972

8,134

10

9,902

(9)

EBITDA

1,529

1,394

10

1,908

(20)

EBITDA margin (%)

17.0

17.1

Net profit

496

(665)

(175)

51

873

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

11,176

10,299

83,262

(87)

1,886

1,959

(4)

1,202

57

16.9

19.0

1,346

1,412

(5)

921

46

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

779

491

59

887

(12)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

780

657

19

736

EBITDA

157

131

20

162

(3)

EBITDA margin (%)

20.1

19.9

Net profit

122

100

Net profit

JSW Steel Consolidated (28/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)

19.3

BHEL (29/10/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit

1.4

Bank of India (29/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

Colgate (29/10/2012)
Particulars (` cr)

22.0
22

117

Economic and Political News

Decision on sugar import duty revision after three months: Sharad Pawar
India seeks Israeli expertise in renewable energy sector
Commerce ministry to approach Cabinet over tax incentives to SEZs

Corporate News

Sun TV Network buys new IPL franchise


Kingfisher Airlines staff agrees to resume work
Adani to hike stake in power subsidiary to 75%
Lupin gets USFDA nod to market generic contraceptive tablets
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

Result Calendar
Date

Company

October 26, 2012

NTPC, ICICI Bank, HUL, GAIL, Punjab Natl.Bank, Sesa Goa, IDFC, Dabur India, IOB, United Bank, Hind. Const.

October 27, 2012

IDBI Bank, Sarda Energy, Siyaram Silk Mills

October 28, 2012

JSW Steel

October 29, 2012

October 31, 2012

BHEL, Bank of India, Colgate, Jagran Prakashan, Greenply, Styrolution


Maruti, Dr Reddy's, Grasim Inds, Shriram Trans., Mahindra Satyam, Glenmark Pharma., IRB Infra, Thermax, Taj GVK,
Jyoti Structures, PVR, JK Tyre
J & K Bank, Power Grid Corpn, NHPC, Titan Inds., LIC Housing Fin., Bharat Forge, Tata Global, Aventis, TVS Motor

November 01, 2012

Hexaware, BGR Energy , Jyothy Laboratories

November 02, 2012

Wipro, Rural Elec.Corp., Union Bank, Marico, Apollo Tyres, Indoco Remedies, Dishman Pharma

November 03, 2012

Godrej Consumer, Divi's Lab.

October 30, 2012

November 04, 2012

November 07, 2012

Tech Mahindra, Allahabad Bank, Gujarat Gas, Vijaya Bank, Madras Cements, India Cements, CEAT, ITD
Cementation, Vesuvius India
Hindalco, Tata Power Co., Bosch India, ABB, Andhra Bank, Central Bank, Britannia, ITNL, Dena Bank, Amara Raja
Batteries, GIPCL
Bharti Airtel, Cadila Healthcare, Indraprasth Gas, GSPL

November 08, 2012

Ranbaxy, Ashok Leyland, Page Industries, Nagarjuna Const.

November 09, 2012

ONGC, BPCL, GSK Pharma, GlaxoSmith Con, Tata Chemicals, Aurobindo Pharma, Subros

November 05, 2012


November 06, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar


Date

Country

Event Description

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated

Oct 26 2012 12:00AM US

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

Oct 30 2012 12:00AM Euro Zone

Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

India

3Q A

1.30

1.80

Value

Oct F

(25.60)

(25.60)

Oct 30

8.00

8.00

Nov 1 2012 12:00AM China

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Oct

49.80

50.40

Nov 2 2012 12:00AM Germany

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Oct F

45.70

45.70

Thousands

Oct

114.00

121.00

Value

Oct F

49.30

--

% Change

Sep

(1.20)

--

% Ratio

Nov 8

0.50

0.50

US
Nov 6 2012 12:00AM Germany
UK

RBI Repo rate

% Change

Change in Nonfarm payrolls


PMI Services
Industrial Production (YoY)

Nov 8 2012 12:00AM UK

BOE Announces rates

Nov 9 2012 12:00AM China


Nov 10 2012
China
12:00AM
Nov 12 2012
India
12:00AM
Nov 13 2012
UK
12:00AM
Nov 14 2012
India
12:00AM
Nov 15 2012
Germany
12:00AM
Nov 16 2012
US
12:00AM

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

% Change

Oct

1.90

--

Exports YoY%

% Change

Oct

9.90

--

Industrial Production YoY

% Change

Sep

2.70

--

CPI (YoY)

% Change

Oct

2.20

--

Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%

% Change

Oct

7.81

--

GDP nsa (YoY)

% Change

3Q P

0.50

--

Oct

0.41

--

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

Industrial Production

Market Strategy
October 26, 2012

Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)

(%)

10.0

8.0

9.2

9.0

8.5

9.0

8.2

7.5

8.0

6.0
8.0

7.6

6.0
6.7

7.0

6.1

5.7

5.3 5.5

5.0

(%)

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

(2.8)

(4.0)

(1.8)

(6.0)

(5.0)

Mfg. PMI

60.0

Services PMI

58.0

9.5
7.7

8.0

(0.2)

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

12.0
9.9

(1.3)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

10.0

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

2QFY10

1QFY10

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Oct-11

(2.0)

4QFY09

1.0

3.5

3.0

6.9

7.4

7.7

7.5

7.6

7.6

7.5

7.6

7.8

56.0

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


(%)

Sep-11

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

48.0

Jan-12

50.0

0.0

Dec-11

2.0

Nov-11

52.0

Oct-11

4.0

Oct-11

54.0

6.0

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

60.0

(%)
9.00

45.0

8.00

30.0

7.00

Exports yoy growth

Imports yoy growth

Repo rate

Reverse Repo rate

CRR
8.00
7.00

6.00
4.50

5.00

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

4.00

Sep-11

(30.0)

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

Sep-11

Aug-11

0.0

Sep-12

15.0

(15.0)

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.0

Oct-11

4.0

4.3
2.7

Sep-11

6.0

4.0

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical


Rallis

Neutral

147

2,864

1,466

1,686

14.8

14.8

7.0

8.1

21.0

18.2

4.5

3.8

22.6

22.5

2.0

1.7

United Phosphorus

Buy

124

170

5,730

8,421

9,263

16.5

16.5

15.0

17.0

8.3

7.3

1.2

1.1

15.6

15.5

0.8

0.7

Amara Raja Batteries

Neutral

220

3,754

2,844

3,275

15.4

15.6

15.9

18.8

13.8

11.7

3.6

2.8

28.9

26.9

1.3

1.1

Apollo Tyres

Accumulate

90

99

4,531

13,412

15,041

11.3

11.0

12.1

14.2

7.4

6.4

1.3

1.1

19.6

19.2

0.5

0.4

Ashok Leyland

Buy

24

30

6,439

14,920

16,850

9.0

9.3

2.2

2.8

11.1

8.8

2.0

1.8

13.3

15.6

0.5

0.4

Automotive Axle#

Accumulate

405

430

612

993

1,140

11.6

11.5

36.9

43.0

11.0

9.4

2.2

1.9

21.2

21.3

0.7

0.5

Bajaj Auto

Neutral

1,797

52,011

21,121

23,642

18.4

18.5

108.7

122.6

16.5

14.7

6.9

5.5

46.2

41.6

2.1

1.8

Bharat Forge

Buy

300

351

6,973

7,004

7,985

16.2

16.4

20.3

25.1

14.7

12.0

2.7

2.3

20.0

20.9

1.2

1.0

Bosch India*

Neutral

8,453

26,543

8,793

10,294

17.4

18.5

348.3

435.8

24.3

19.4

4.7

3.9

19.4

20.1

2.8

2.4

CEAT

Buy

113

164

386

4,989

5,634

8.7

8.5

32.7

41.1

3.4

2.7

0.5

0.4

15.8

16.9

0.3

0.2

Exide Industries

Accumulate

148

155

12,601

6,229

7,200

14.8

15.8

7.2

9.0

20.7

16.6

3.6

3.1

18.5

19.9

1.6

1.3

FAG Bearings*

Neutral

1,645

2,734

1,505

1,768

17.5

18.0

111.2

132.7

14.8

12.4

3.1

2.5

22.8

22.2

1.7

1.4

Hero Motocorp

Accumulate

1,924

1,956

38,414

24,743

27,996

14.8

15.2

118.2

130.4

16.3

14.8

7.0

5.5

48.3

41.9

1.2

1.0

JK Tyre

Accumulate

107

135

440

7,517

8,329

6.1

6.3

26.2

38.5

4.1

2.8

0.5

0.4

13.4

17.2

0.4

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate

846

944

51,958

37,434

42,860

11.6

11.5

50.4

56.3

16.8

15.0

3.5

3.0

22.6

21.5

1.1

0.9

Maruti

Neutral

1,314

37,970

41,796

49,350

7.6

8.6

66.6

92.6

19.7

14.2

2.3

2.0

12.0

14.8

0.7

0.6

Motherson Sumi

Neutral

220

8,626

24,285

27,317

6.7

7.2

8.1

10.6

27.4

20.8

5.8

4.7

22.9

24.7

0.5

0.5

Subros

Buy

30

34

178

1,230

1,378

8.8

8.6

4.5

5.7

6.6

5.2

0.6

0.6

9.8

11.8

0.4

0.3

Tata Motors

Buy

263

316

70,119 195,096 219,428

12.8

13.0

39.0

44.9

6.8

5.9

1.9

1.5

32.6

28.8

0.4

0.4

TVS Motor

Buy

42

49

2,017

7,611

8,443

7.9

7.9

4.7

5.4

9.0

7.8

1.5

1.3

17.9

18.1

0.2

0.2

ABB*

Sell

779

593

16,509

8,760

10,023

6.2

8.7

14.5

24.7

53.9

31.5

5.9

5.1

11.6

17.6

1.8

1.6

BGR Energy

Neutral

274

1,977

3,669

4,561

11.0

11.0

24.7

29.6

11.1

9.3

1.6

1.5

15.3

16.7

1.0

1.0

BHEL

Neutral

253

61,949

47,801

43,757

19.0

18.8

25.3

22.8

10.0

11.1

3.1

2.6

34.3

25.3

1.1

1.2

Blue Star

Buy

179

249

1,611

2,763

2,948

3.2

5.6

3.5

9.1

51.8

19.7

3.9

3.4

7.7

18.4

0.7

0.7

Crompton Greaves

Accumulate

129

141

8,291

12,691

14,126

7.4

8.9

7.0

9.7

18.5

13.3

2.1

1.9

11.9

15.0

0.7

0.6

Jyoti Structures

Buy

46

54

382

2,622

2,744

10.7

10.5

9.6

12.2

4.9

3.8

0.5

0.5

10.8

12.3

0.4

0.3

KEC International

Accumulate

71

78

1,825

6,858

7,431

7.1

7.5

8.3

9.8

8.6

7.3

1.5

1.2

25.1

24.0

0.4

0.4

LMW

Neutral

1,987

2,238

2,369

2,727

11.7

11.7

143.4

166.0

13.9

12.0

2.3

2.1

17.4

18.4

0.5

0.4

Thermax

Neutral

564

6,719

5,514

5,559

8.9

10.2

26.9

30.3

21.0

18.6

3.6

3.2

18.4

18.2

1.1

1.0

Capital Goods

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Cement
ACC

Neutral

1,429

26,836

11,085

12,415

21.6

21.4

79.4

83.1

18.0

17.2

3.5

3.2

20.1

19.2

2.1

1.8

Ambuja Cements

Neutral

202

31,169

10,272

11,884

26.4

26.1

11.5

12.9

17.7

15.7

3.9

3.5

20.8

21.1

2.7

2.2

India Cements

Neutral

92

2,840

4,354

4,929

18.6

18.7

9.8

12.3

9.4

7.5

0.8

0.8

8.6

10.2

1.2

1.0

J K Lakshmi Cements

Neutral

106

1,295

1,964

2,278

19.5

20.4

16.3

17.9

6.5

5.9

0.9

0.8

14.7

14.6

0.9

1.3

Madras Cements

Neutral

185

4,404

3,608

3,928

27.6

27.0

15.7

18.3

11.8

10.1

1.9

1.6

16.9

17.0

1.9

1.6

Shree Cements^

Neutral

3,700

12,889

5,701

6,210

29.7

28.1

240.7

260.7

15.4

14.2

3.7

3.0

27.1

23.6

2.0

1.6

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

1,883

51,608

21,368

24,043

22.5

23.5

103.5

121.4

18.2

15.5

3.4

2.9

20.2

20.1

2.5

2.4

227

304

1,195

2,034

2,315

22.4

22.4

27.1

31.7

8.4

7.2

1.0

0.9

13.1

13.4

1.8

2.1

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

15

270

2,262

2,522

6.7

7.5

1.5

2.7

9.8

5.5

0.4

0.4

4.4

7.5

0.4

0.4

Hind. Const.

Neutral

18

1,116

4,239

4,522

9.9

11.2

(2.3)

(1.0)

(8.2)

(19.1)

1.0

1.1

(11.4)

(5.6)

1.2

1.2

IRB Infra

Buy

158

166

5,248

3,964

4,582

42.3

40.2

15.7

16.9

10.0

9.3

1.6

1.4

16.6

15.8

2.7

2.6

ITNL

Buy

183

232

3,562

6,840

7,767

26.4

26.1

24.4

30.3

7.5

6.1

1.1

1.0

16.0

16.2

2.7

2.9

IVRCL Infra

Buy

48

51

1,473

5,510

6,722

8.8

9.0

2.5

4.6

19.0

10.5

0.6

0.6

3.4

5.8

0.7

0.7

Jaiprakash Asso.

Neutral

82

17,437

15,259

17,502

25.7

24.7

4.0

4.8

20.5

17.2

1.6

1.5

8.5

9.3

2.6

2.3

Larsen & Toubro

Neutral

1,562

95,865

60,474

69,091

12.1

11.5

79.7

85.4

19.6

18.3

3.3

2.9

16.3

15.1

1.9

1.7

Madhucon Proj

Buy

38

56

281

2,206

2,502

10.7

10.7

4.6

4.7

8.2

8.2

0.4

0.4

5.2

5.0

0.7

0.7

Nagarjuna Const.

Reduce

45

45

1,152

5,804

6,513

8.0

8.6

3.0

3.5

14.8

12.8

0.5

0.5

3.2

3.6

0.6

0.7

Patel Engg.

Neutral

77

539

3,609

3,836

13.1

13.1

14.0

14.6

5.5

5.3

0.3

0.3

6.3

6.1

1.0

1.0

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

54

1,792

11,892

13,116

8.9

8.9

1.7

3.1

31.8

17.5

0.6

0.6

1.9

3.4

0.6

0.5

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

143

182

2,155

2,506

3,147

10.3

10.7

7.5

10.4

19.1

13.7

2.4

2.1

13.5

16.0

1.0

0.9

Simplex Infra

Buy

208

265

1,031

6,732

7,837

8.1

8.4

23.4

29.4

8.9

7.1

0.8

0.7

9.2

10.6

0.5

0.5

Allahabad Bank

Reduce

146

131

7,283

6,944

7,884

3.0

3.1

35.5

37.0

4.1

3.9

0.7

0.6

17.2

15.7

Andhra Bank

Reduce

111

97

6,200

4,929

5,633

3.1

3.1

23.7

24.5

4.7

4.5

0.8

0.7

16.6

15.3

Axis Bank

Accumulate

1,125

1,402

46,627

15,686

18,687

3.1

3.2

116.8

138.0

9.6

8.2

1.8

1.5

20.0

20.2

Bank of Baroda

Accumulate

774

864

30,310

15,473

18,142

2.6

2.6

115.3

139.4

6.7

5.6

1.0

0.9

16.2

17.2

Bank of India

Accumulate

302

340

17,302

12,573

14,971

2.3

2.4

58.2

68.0

5.2

4.4

0.9

0.7

15.9

16.3

Bank of Maharashtra

Neutral

49

2,860

3,442

3,802

3.1

3.2

8.9

11.4

5.5

4.2

0.7

0.6

13.5

15.5

Canara Bank

Neutral

438

19,406

10,905

12,783

2.1

2.2

74.9

85.1

5.9

5.2

0.9

0.8

15.1

15.3

Central Bank

Neutral

77

5,701

7,095

8,102

2.5

2.7

15.6

21.0

5.0

3.7

0.8

0.7

12.2

14.7

Financials

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Financials
Corporation Bank

Accumulate

408

447

6,037

4,886

5,669

2.1

2.2

101.3

101.8

4.0

4.0

0.7

0.6

17.0

15.1

Dena Bank

Neutral

103

3,597

3,147

3,495

2.8

2.9

24.8

24.4

4.1

4.2

0.7

0.6

18.7

15.9

Federal Bank

Neutral

438

7,486

2,617

2,968

3.3

3.2

45.9

51.7

9.6

8.5

1.2

1.1

13.1

13.3

HDFC

Neutral

761

117,126

7,336

8,802

3.5

3.5

31.5

37.8

24.1

20.1

4.8

4.3

34.8

32.1

HDFC Bank

Neutral

630

148,721

21,696

26,811

4.4

4.5

28.7

36.0

22.0

17.5

4.2

3.6

20.7

22.0

ICICI Bank

Buy

1,064

1,245

122,306

22,304

26,855

2.9

3.0

68.6

82.0

15.5

13.0

1.9

1.7

14.2

15.6

IDBI Bank

Accumulate

Indian Bank

Neutral

IOB

Accumulate

J & K Bank

98

112

12,503

7,761

9,484

1.9

2.2

17.1

22.9

5.7

4.3

0.7

0.6

11.9

14.4

189

8,110

6,062

6,818

3.4

3.4

40.5

41.6

4.7

4.5

0.8

0.7

18.1

16.3

78

87

6,197

7,343

8,391

2.5

2.5

16.0

21.3

4.9

3.7

0.6

0.5

11.3

13.6

Neutral

921

4,465

2,600

2,850

3.6

3.5

192.3

188.0

4.8

4.9

0.9

0.8

21.0

17.7

LIC Housing Finance

Buy

274

301

13,825

1,867

2,338

2.4

2.4

21.1

28.5

13.0

9.6

2.1

1.8

17.5

20.4

Oriental Bank

Neutral

283

8,245

6,278

7,125

2.7

2.8

56.7

62.6

5.0

4.5

0.7

0.6

14.1

13.9

Punjab Natl.Bank

Buy

833

966

28,262

19,934

22,705

3.3

3.3

147.8

166.2

5.6

5.0

1.0

0.8

17.7

17.3

South Ind.Bank

Accumulate

23

25

3,018

1,556

1,750

2.8

2.7

3.5

3.9

6.5

5.9

1.1

1.0

19.1

16.9

St Bk of India

Accumulate

2,228

2,353

149,522

63,806

73,435

3.5

3.6

225.7

258.4

9.9

8.6

1.7

1.4

17.7

17.8

Syndicate Bank

Neutral

107

6,420

6,722

7,719

2.9

3.0

24.3

27.2

4.4

3.9

0.7

0.6

17.0

16.8

UCO Bank

Neutral

75

5,002

5,411

6,124

2.4

2.5

17.0

16.5

4.4

4.6

0.9

0.8

16.7

14.4

Union Bank

Accumulate

203

226

11,154

9,924

11,647

2.8

2.9

38.6

46.3

5.2

4.4

0.9

0.7

15.4

16.3

United Bank

Buy

62

81

2,220

3,572

4,041

2.8

2.9

17.2

22.1

3.6

2.8

0.5

0.4

14.2

16.2

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

56

2,763

2,490

2,881

2.1

2.2

9.2

11.4

6.1

4.9

0.7

0.7

11.5

13.0

Yes Bank

Accumulate

374

453

13,298

3,270

4,240

2.8

3.0

34.5

42.2

10.9

8.9

2.3

1.9

23.5

23.5

3,888

37,289

11,198

13,184

16.3

16.3

121.0

144.8

32.1

26.9

10.8

8.5

37.4

35.3

3.3

2.8

479

584

5,727

5,835

6,824

5.7

6.0

20.7

25.4

23.2

18.9

9.1

7.0

43.1

41.9

0.9

0.8

1,200

16,325

3,018

3,429

20.9

22.2

35.7

42.3

33.6

28.4

31.1

23.1

101.0

93.5

5.5

4.8

FMCG
Asian Paints

Neutral

Britannia

Buy

Colgate

Neutral

Dabur India

Neutral

124

21,647

6,124

7,030

17.0

16.8

4.5

5.2

27.8

24.0

11.5

9.1

43.2

41.5

3.8

3.2

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

2,926

12,305

3,124

3,663

17.1

17.6

104.5

123.8

28.0

23.6

8.7

7.0

34.4

32.8

3.8

3.2

Godrej Consumer

Neutral

661

22,499

6,097

7,233

18.4

18.6

21.9

26.5

30.2

25.0

6.7

5.5

25.5

25.4

4.1

3.4

HUL

Neutral

528

114,094

25,350

28,974

13.9

13.9

14.3

16.5

37.0

32.0

22.0

17.0

70.9

59.8

4.7

4.0

ITC

Neutral

263

206,778

29,409

34,060

35.7

36.1

9.3

10.9

28.2

24.1

9.4

7.8

35.8

35.3

7.4

6.4

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FMCG
Marico

Neutral

201

12,965

4,840

5,643

13.1

13.1

6.8

8.5

29.7

23.8

8.2

6.2

31.4

29.7

2.8

2.3

Nestle*

Neutral

4,343

41,870

8,610

10,174

20.9

21.2

114.8

139.8

37.8

31.1

22.8

15.9

71.2

60.3

5.3

4.4

Tata Global

Neutral

131

8,073

7,207

7,927

9.7

10.0

6.6

7.8

19.8

16.7

2.0

1.9

8.6

9.5

1.3

1.1

HCL Tech^

Accumulate

568

648

39,393

24,214

26,772

19.5

18.1

44.0

48.0

12.9

11.8

3.1

2.6

24.0

22.0

1.7

1.5

Hexaware*

Buy

120

140

3,553

1,966

2,161

22.5

21.4

11.6

12.2

10.3

9.9

2.7

2.3

26.8

23.9

1.4

1.2

Infosys

Accumulate

2,587

2,573

148,542

39,174

41,580

29.5

30.4

159.2

171.6

16.3

15.1

3.9

3.5

24.1

23.1

2.9

2.6

Infotech Enterprises

Accumulate

189

202

2,102

1,886

2,032

17.9

17.3

18.7

20.2

10.1

9.4

1.5

1.3

14.9

14.0

0.8

0.7

KPIT Cummins

Buy

125

142

2,227

2,191

2,364

16.1

16.5

11.3

13.0

11.1

9.6

2.4

1.9

21.8

20.0

1.0

0.8

Mahindra Satyam

Neutral

107

12,634

7,628

8,062

19.9

18.4

9.7

10.0

11.0

10.7

3.1

2.4

27.7

22.2

1.2

1.1

Mindtree

Accumulate

667

747

2,725

2,324

2,437

20.0

17.7

73.3

74.7

9.1

8.9

2.2

1.7

24.1

19.7

0.9

0.8

Mphasis&

Neutral

394

8,281

5,700

5,993

18.0

16.9

37.0

37.3

10.6

10.6

1.5

1.3

14.3

12.6

1.0

0.9

NIIT

Accumulate

32

36

524

1,034

1,146

9.9

11.0

5.2

6.4

6.1

5.0

0.8

0.7

12.8

14.3

0.3

0.2

Persistent

Neutral

411

1,644

1,261

1,352

26.4

24.7

48.2

54.0

8.5

7.6

1.6

1.4

19.0

17.9

1.2

1.0

TCS

Accumulate

1,286

1,410

251,767

61,053

67,313

28.7

29.1

69.7

76.2

18.5

16.9

6.0

4.9

32.6

29.1

4.0

3.6

Tech Mahindra

Accumulate

938

1,046

11,973

6,603

7,196

18.2

17.1

92.7

99.6

10.1

9.4

2.4

1.9

23.6

20.5

1.9

1.6

Wipro

Buy

380

421

93,477

43,800

48,332

19.5

19.3

25.6

28.1

14.9

13.5

2.8

2.4

18.9

17.9

1.6

1.3

D B Corp

Buy

198

259

3,631

1,581

1,784

23.3

25.0

11.6

14.4

17.1

13.7

3.3

2.9

21.0

22.3

2.4

2.1

HT Media

Accumulate

92

113

2,172

2,111

2,272

15.0

15.2

7.4

8.3

12.6

11.2

1.4

1.2

11.3

11.4

0.8

0.7

Jagran Prakashan

Accumulate

91

112

2,884

1,488

1,664

22.7

22.8

6.2

7.1

14.7

12.8

3.6

3.2

25.2

26.3

2.4

2.1

PVR

Neutral

187

485

625

732

17.4

17.1

13.3

15.6

14.0

11.9

1.5

1.4

13.2

13.8

1.3

1.1

Sun TV Network

Neutral

328

12,916

1,981

2,239

77.0

76.7

18.6

21.3

17.7

15.4

4.4

3.9

27.1

27.5

6.6

5.6

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

473

10,043

11,979

14,584

31.6

31.0

49.2

61.4

9.6

7.7

1.3

1.1

14.1

15.2

2.9

2.4

Coal India

Accumulate

358

385

226,221

69,808

75,550

27.4

27.4

26.0

28.3

13.8

12.7

4.0

3.2

32.5

28.1

2.3

2.0

Electrosteel Castings

Buy

19

29

668

1,984

2,074

10.6

11.6

0.8

2.0

23.1

9.5

0.4

0.1

1.7

4.1

0.6

0.5

Hind. Zinc

Accumulate

133

145

56,070

12,446

13,538

52.3

52.9

15.0

16.4

8.9

8.1

1.7

1.5

21.4

19.7

2.6

2.0

Hindalco

Neutral

117

22,334

84,855

92,446

8.7

9.3

13.2

16.2

8.8

7.2

0.7

0.6

7.8

8.9

0.6

0.6

JSW Steel

Neutral

741

16,522

38,740

41,459

17.3

17.0

79.9

89.4

9.3

8.3

0.9

0.8

10.4

10.6

0.9

0.8

MOIL

Accumulate

255

271

4,284

918

993

50.7

50.9

24.5

26.1

10.4

9.8

1.6

1.5

16.0

15.5

2.2

1.9

Monnet Ispat

Buy

305

379

1,965

2,511

3,303

23.8

26.0

46.3

57.3

6.6

5.3

0.8

0.7

12.4

13.7

1.7

1.2

IT

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )
FY13E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Metals & Mining


Nalco

Neutral

NMDC

Buy

51

13,260

7,401

7,841

16.7

19.2

3.4

4.1

15.0

12.6

1.1

1.0

7.4

8.4

1.3

1.2

188

214

74,675

12,934

14,266

79.4

80.1

21.1

23.4

8.9

8.1

2.4

1.9

29.6

26.5

3.8

3.2

SAIL
Sesa Goa

Neutral

89

36,803

47,252

60,351

14.2

14.8

9.6

11.7

9.3

7.6

0.8

0.8

9.4

10.6

1.2

1.0

Neutral

176

15,279

7,704

8,034

33.6

34.6

42.0

43.1

4.2

4.1

0.9

0.7

22.3

19.2

2.2

2.0

Sterlite Inds

Neutral

101

33,841

41,680

45,382

24.2

23.2

16.3

16.9

6.2

6.0

0.7

0.6

11.3

10.7

0.8

0.7

Tata Steel

Buy

396

481

38,460 145,799 150,431

10.3

11.2

48.6

63.3

8.1

6.3

0.8

0.7

10.5

12.4

0.5

0.5

Sarda

Buy

131

148

471

1,251

1,321

22.7

23.4

33.0

37.1

4.0

3.5

0.6

0.5

15.1

14.8

0.7

0.7

Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas

Buy

56

73

751

2,694

2,906

14.6

16.6

16.4

20.8

3.4

2.7

0.3

0.3

11.4

12.8

0.5

0.4

Buy

121

161

385

2,341

2,425

15.6

17.3

33.3

43.2

3.6

2.8

0.4

0.4

13.2

14.4

0.5

0.5

Cairn India

Accumulate

333

380

63,647

16,605

17,258

75.4

71.7

57.0

54.9

5.9

6.1

1.1

0.9

20.2

16.3

2.9

2.3

GAIL

Neutral

386

48,900

50,176

55,815

15.5

15.8

35.4

36.5

10.9

10.6

1.9

1.7

18.9

17.0

0.6

0.5

ONGC

Accumulate

281

312

240,452 147,139 154,821

33.9

33.7

30.7

32.3

9.2

8.7

1.6

1.4

18.3

17.2

1.3

1.2

Reliance Industries

Neutral

844

276,405 362,700 380,031

7.9

8.0

60.0

63.3

14.1

13.3

1.4

1.2

11.1

10.6

0.7

0.7

Gujarat Gas*

Neutral

310

3,819

11.5

11.3

19.2

22.1

16.2

14.0

4.3

3.9

28.7

29.0

1.1

0.9

Indraprastha Gas

Neutral

260

3,633

3,040

3,135

24.3

26.7

24.8

27.9

10.5

9.3

2.4

2.0

25.5

23.6

1.2

1.0

Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals

Accumulate

161

183

12,064

30,077

33,570

6.6

6.3

15.1

15.3

10.6

10.5

2.7

2.2

28.4

23.1

0.4

0.4

79

4,465

1,041

939

91.8

91.9

8.5

7.4

9.4

10.7

1.6

1.4

18.1

14.0

5.1

5.6

Alembic Pharma

Buy

73

91

1,374

1,624

1,855

14.2

15.6

6.6

9.1

11.1

8.0

2.8

2.1

27.9

29.9

1.0

0.8

Aurobindo Pharma

Neutral

140

4,087

5,243

5,767

14.6

14.6

11.8

12.6

11.9

11.1

1.5

1.3

17.9

16.4

1.4

1.2

Aventis*

Neutral

2,267

5,221

1,482

1,682

15.5

15.5

95.1

104.4

23.8

21.7

4.2

3.3

18.6

17.0

3.3

2.8

Cadila Healthcare

Accumulate

845

953

17,295

6,148

7,386

18.6

19.6

36.0

46.1

23.5

18.3

5.5

4.4

25.8

26.8

3.1

2.5

Cipla

Accumulate

373

399

29,917

8,031

9,130

23.4

22.4

18.4

20.0

20.3

18.6

3.4

2.9

17.8

16.6

3.4

2.9

Dr Reddy's

Accumulate

1,627

1,859

27,617

10,696

11,662

20.7

21.0

83.7

92.9

19.4

17.5

4.0

3.4

22.4

20.8

3.0

2.7

Dishman Pharma

Neutral

97

784

1,280

1,536

17.8

17.8

9.2

11.3

10.6

8.6

0.8

0.7

7.7

8.5

1.3

1.1

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

2,000

16,944

2,651

2,993

31.7

31.2

76.0

82.4

26.3

24.3

7.6

6.8

20.1

26.3

5.6

4.8

Indoco Remedies

Buy

71

92

653

685

837

15.2

15.2

7.4

8.9

9.6

8.0

1.5

1.3

16.4

17.0

1.1

0.9

Ipca labs

Neutral

460

5,799

2,850

3,474

20.7

20.7

29.2

36.6

15.8

12.6

3.7

2.9

26.1

26.1

2.2

1.8

Lupin

Accumulate

585

647

26,159

8,426

10,082

19.7

20.0

26.3

31.3

22.3

18.7

5.2

4.2

26.0

24.7

3.0

2.5

Orchid Chemicals

Neutral

115

812

1,667

1,835

13.9

13.9

11.4

13.3

10.1

8.7

0.7

0.6

6.6

7.3

0.9

0.8

Neutral

www.angelbroking.com

3,973

3,228

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Pharmaceuticals
Ranbaxy*

Neutral

536

22,648

12,046

11,980

18.0

15.8

31.3

29.8

17.1

18.0

5.8

4.7

39.1

28.9

1.9

1.9

Sun Pharma

Neutral

676

69,877

9,752

12,134

41.6

41.6

26.0

28.2

26.0

24.0

4.9

4.2

20.3

18.8

6.7

5.2

CESC

Neutral

332

4,149

5,218

5,644

24.2

23.8

44.6

47.6

7.5

7.0

0.8

0.7

11.0

10.6

1.6

1.6

GIPCL

Accumulate

NTPC

Neutral

Power
70

77

1,060

1,557

1,573

29.3

28.7

10.8

11.0

6.5

6.4

0.7

0.6

10.8

10.2

1.1

1.0

165

135,968

74,111

85,789

22.7

23.1

12.1

13.7

13.6

12.0

1.7

1.5

12.6

13.2

2.5

2.3

Real Estate
Anant Raj

Neutral

67

1,980

657

875

52.0

56.1

8.4

12.7

8.0

5.3

0.5

0.5

6.3

8.9

4.9

3.7

DLF

Neutral

234

39,695

9,878

12,033

44.7

46.1

9.6

13.4

24.4

17.4

1.5

1.5

6.4

8.7

6.0

5.0

HDIL

Accumulate

98

115

4,085

2,441

3,344

55.1

48.2

22.7

26.6

4.3

3.7

0.4

0.3

8.8

9.4

3.6

2.7

MLIFE

Neutral

378

1,543

813

901

26.2

26.6

32.0

37.1

11.8

10.2

1.2

1.1

10.4

11.0

2.4

2.1

Bharti Airtel

Neutral

265

100,711

79,147

86,745

31.1

32.5

9.9

15.1

26.7

17.6

1.9

1.7

7.0

9.7

2.0

1.7

Idea Cellular

Neutral

86

28,457

22,234

24,161

26.9

27.7

3.3

4.9

26.0

17.4

2.0

1.8

7.7

10.3

1.7

1.5

Rcom

Neutral

63

13,045

20,650

20,935

32.3

33.0

4.2

5.8

14.9

11.0

0.4

0.3

2.3

3.1

2.2

2.1

Abbott India

Neutral

1,584

3,365

1,602

1,833

10.4

11.8

54.7

71.7

29.0

22.1

5.5

4.7

20.0

22.7

1.7

1.5

Bajaj Electricals

Neutral

199

1,980

3,670

4,290

7.6

8.8

15.0

23.0

13.2

8.6

2.4

2.0

18.6

22.4

0.6

0.5

Cera Sanitaryware

Accumulate

338

411

427

427

528

15.7

14.6

30.0

34.0

11.3

9.9

2.5

2.0

24.6

22.5

1.2

1.0

Cravatex

Buy

443

682

114

289

340

5.2

5.9

41.0

57.0

10.8

7.8

2.8

2.1

25.2

26.5

0.5

0.4

CRISIL

Neutral

940

6,594

982

1,136

34.3

34.3

34.3

40.0

27.4

23.5

12.4

9.9

50.9

46.9

6.4

5.4

Finolex Cables

Buy

42

61

639

2,334

2,687

6.2

6.5

8.0

10.0

5.2

4.2

0.7

0.6

13.0

14.9

0.2

0.2

Force Motors

Accumulate

435

537

567

2,318

2,700

5.0

5.7

45.0

67.0

9.7

6.5

0.5

0.5

5.0

7.0

0.2

0.2

Goodyear India

Neutral

320

738

1,543

1,654

6.5

7.3

24.8

31.1

12.9

10.3

2.1

1.8

17.1

19.0

0.3

0.2

Graphite India

#N/A

Greenply Industries

Accumulate

195

309

471

1,925

2,235

10.6

10.9

29.6

44.1

6.6

4.4

1.1

0.9

16.8

21.0

0.6

0.5

Hitachi

Neutral

126

289

868

977

3.9

6.6

2.7

10.9

45.9

11.6

1.7

1.5

3.7

13.6

0.4

0.4

Honeywell Automation

Accumulate

2,712

2,842

2,397

1,745

1,993

4.0

5.3

59.5

90.4

45.6

30.0

3.5

3.0

8.1

11.3

1.2

1.1

Styrolution ABS India

Buy

630

744

1,107

1,056

1,081

8.1

10.6

34.0

47.0

18.5

13.4

2.6

2.2

14.7

17.5

1.1

1.0

ITD Cementation

Neutral

254

292

1,451

1,669

12.3

12.4

32.4

41.5

7.8

6.1

0.7

0.6

9.4

10.9

0.6

0.6

Jyothy Laboratories

Neutral

165

2,664

1,248

1,468

9.8

10.4

5.9

7.2

27.9

23.1

4.0

3.7

15.0

16.6

2.6

2.1

MCX

Neutral

1,300

6,628

553

624

65.3

66.3

62.5

72.0

20.8

18.1

5.7

4.9

27.5

27.4

9.9

8.3

MRF

Buy

10,203

12,884

4,327

11,804

12,727

10.4

10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3

7.9

7.1

1.5

1.3

21.3

19.4

0.5

0.5

Telecom

zOthers

www.angelbroking.com

83

1,627

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

3,226

715

821

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

3,598

887

1,108

18.3

18.6

95.0

120.9

34.0

26.7

17.7

14.4

57.4

59.5

4.2

3.4

858

1,019

1,208

12.3

13.0

51.0

68.4

14.0

10.5

3.7

2.8

30.3

30.2

1.0

0.9

zOthers
Page Industries

Neutral

Relaxo Footwears

Accumulate

Sintex Industries

Accumulate

66

79

1,798

4,751

5,189

16.3

16.6

13.6

15.8

4.8

4.2

0.6

0.6

12.9

13.2

0.8

0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills

Buy

290

392

272

1,042

1,173

12.4

12.5

66.3

78.5

4.4

3.7

0.9

0.7

21.1

20.8

0.5

0.4

S. Kumars Nationwide

Buy

20

24

607

7,134

7,985

19.7

19.4

12.2

14.1

1.7

1.5

0.2

0.2

11.3

11.5

0.6

0.6

SpiceJet

Buy

38

43

1,821

5,720

6,599

5.3

6.8

3.6

5.4

10.4

7.0

15.1

4.8

0.4

0.3

TAJ GVK

Buy

68

108

423

300

319

35.8

36.2

7.9

9.1

8.5

7.4

1.1

1.0

13.9

14.4

1.9

1.6

Tata Sponge Iron

Buy

309

384

476

750

803

18.6

18.4

65.4

69.1

4.7

4.5

0.7

0.6

16.5

15.3

0.3

0.2

TVS Srichakra

Accumulate

303

335

232

1,476

1,643

7.0

8.2

32.6

55.9

9.3

5.4

1.5

1.2

16.8

24.8

0.4

0.3

United Spirits

Neutral

1,158

15,140

10,289

11,421

13.5

14.3

31.0

42.9

37.3

27.0

2.9

2.6

8.1

10.3

2.3

2.1

Vesuvius India

Neutral

336

682

560

611

16.1

17.0

24.7

28.8

13.6

11.7

2.0

1.8

15.8

16.2

1.2

1.0

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on October 25, 2012

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 26, 2012

www.angelbroking.com

You might also like