Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary
Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary
Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary
November 2, 2012
Dealers Diary
Indian markets are expected to open in the green following positive opening in the SGX Nifty and most of the Asian indices. Asian stocks rose, headed for a weekly gain, as better-than-expected U.S. employment and manufacturing data brightened the outlook for regional exports and spurred demand for riskier assets. With traders reacting positively to a slew of U.S. economic data, stocks in US saw significant strength during trading on Thursday. The rally seen over the course or trading day came on the heels of the release of a batch of largely upbeat economic data, including reports showing stronger than expected private sector job growth and a continued expansion in national manufacturing activity. Indian shares rose modestly on Thursday after the Purchasing Managers' Index from HSBC India signaled improvement in the health of India's manufacturing sector. The headline index, a measure of factory production, nudged up to 52.9 in October from 52.8 in the previous month.
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex Nifty MID CAP SMALL CAP BSE HC BSE PSU BANKEX AUTO METAL OIL & GAS BSE IT
Global Indices
0.3 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.4 2.2 0.8 (0.3) 0.2
Chg (%)
56.3 18,562 25.3 55.8 52.3 67.1 19.0 5,645 6,622 7,041 7,688 7,124
8,331 5,733
(Close)
Dow Jones NASDAQ FTSE Nikkei Hang Seng Straits Times Shanghai Com
Indian ADRs
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 18,532 / 5,632 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 18,619 18,676 / 5,663 5,680 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 18,532 / 5,632 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 18,475 18,388 / 5,615 5,584 levels.
Indices SENSEX NIFTY S2 18,388 5,584 S1 18,475 5,615 PIVOT 18,532 5,632 R1 18,619 5,663 R2 18,676 5,680
180.1 21,822
News Analysis
EGoM allows telecom companies to keep some 900Mhz frequencies Auto sales numbers October 2012 Wipros spins off non-IT business to focus on core business 2QFY2013 Result Review: GSK cons, Hexaware, Jyothi, BGR, Hitachi 2QFY2013 Result Preview: Wipro, Marico, Crompton Greaves, Dishman, Indico Remedies
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
948 540 87
BSE NSE
1,987 9,575
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Company
Titan Inds Aurobindo Phar TATAGLOBAL Pantaloon Retl Union Bank
Losers Company
Coromandel Intl Hindustan Unilever Oberoi Realty Cummins India Max India
Price (`)
285 170 160 190 206
chg (%)
9.8 7.4 6.2 5.8 5.6
Price (`)
277 537 269 480 238
chg (%)
(2.2) (1.8) (1.7) (1.6) (1.6)
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
November 2, 2012
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
November 2, 2012
The passenger vehicle segment benefitted from the incremental volumes of the recently launched Quanto.
Maruti Suzuki
Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported an in-line growth of 9.7% mom to 103,108 units driven by strong growth in the compact, super compact and export volumes. While Swift and Dzire contributed towards the strong performance of the compact and super compact segments respectively; growth in export volumes was led by resumption in production at the Manesar plant. The Manesar plant is currently operating at 1,600 cars/ day and is expected to reach its peak production levels of ~1,800 cars/ day by end of November. The vans segment continued its poor run and posted a decline of 30.3% mom. On a yoy basis, MSIL registered a growth of 85.5% largely due to low base of last year which was impacted by labor strike at Manesar plant.
Hero MotoCorp
Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) registered better-than-expected growth of 3.3% yoy to 529,215 units after the company had corrected its inventory position at the dealer end in the last two months. The volume performance was driven by strong growth during the festival period of Navaratri and Dussera which witnessed retail sales of 350,000 units in a span of 15 days. Further, volumes also benefited from the new launches, Maestro and Ignitor. The growth
TVS Motor
TVS Motor (TVSL) posted an in-line volume growth of 3.3% yoy (11.8% mom) to 190,088 units driven by a strong 22.5% yoy (13.9% mom) growth in moped sales. On a sequential basis, motorcycle and scooter volumes grew by 13.9% and 9.8% respectively, benefitting from the festival demand. Going ahead, motorcycle volumes are expected to benefit from the sales of the recently launched 125cc Phoenix. The company also intends to launch two new scooters in FY2014. The three-wheeler sales surprisingly posted a decline of 8.6% yoy (25.8% mom) during the month. Export volumes too plunged sharply, reporting a 16.1% yoy decline to 18,563 units.
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
November 2, 2012
receive one equity share with face value of `10 in Wipro Enterprises Ltd. for every five equity shares with face value of `2 each in Wipro Ltd that they hold; or receive one 7% redeemable preference share in Wipro Enterprises Ltd., with face value of `50, for every five equity shares of Wipro Ltd. that they hold; or exchange the equity shares of Wipro Enterprises Ltd. and receive as consideration equity shares of Wipro Ltd. held by the promoter. The exchange ratio will be 1 equity share in Wipro Ltd. for every 1.65 equity shares in Wipro Enterprises Ltd. Each redeemable preference share shall have a maturity of 12 months and shall be redeemed at a value of `235.2.
The deal
Taking the above given three options into account, we believe that for every 100 shares of Wipro held, the existing shareholders will get ~12 shares of the Wipro Ltd. As per the CMP, the deal is valued at ~`10,000cr which is 3.2x sales. Also, the newly made entity of Wipro Enterprises Ltd. which will remain unlisted, has been given ~35-38x PE on a trailing basis (considering 33% tax rate with no interest) which is in favor of minority shareholders. After this deal, we expect the promoter share holding to come down to 75.7% from 78.3% earlier.
Change in estimates
The IT business (IT services and IT products) contributed 86% to the revenue and 94% to the operating profit (EBIT) of Wipro Limited in FY2012. Our expected revenue contribution from IT business for FY2013E and FY2014E stands at 88%. On the EBIT level, the non-IT business had EBIT margins of ~11-12% (lower than companys IT services business margin), which on the consolidated level led to margin of ~17%. After hiving off of non-IT business, we expect EBIT margin for FY2013 and FY2014 to be at 17.5% (17.0% earlier) and 17.4% (16.9% earlier), respectively. Assuming tax rate of 33% for the non-IT business, PAT contribution of non-IT business was 5% to the companys consolidated PAT. Assuming the aforesaid tax rate, PAT contribution from IT business stands at 94.6% in FY2013E and 93.8% in FY2014E. This implies after hiving off the non-IT business unit, the revised EPS estimates for FY2013 and FY2014 comes to `24.3 (`25.6 earlier, 5% down) and INR25.9 (v/s INR28.0 earlier, down 7%), respectively.
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
November 2, 2012
Result Review
GSK Consumer (CMP:`3,007/TP:/Upside:-) GSK Consumer (TGBL) posted a 14.9% yoy growth in its topline to `828cr which was slightly ahead of our estimates. We believe the topline growth is on account of both volume and value growth. OPM rose by 59bp yoy to 17%. Bottomline rose by 24.8% yoy to `129cr. We maintain a neutral view on the stock.
Y/E March CY2012E CY2013E Sales (` cr) 3,124 3,663 OPM (%) 17.1 17.6 PAT (` cr) EPS (`) ROE (%) 36.3 34.0 P/E (x) 27.0 22.8 P/BV (x) 8.8 6.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 21.5 17.5 EV/Sales (x) 3.7 3.1
469111.4 554131.7
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
November 2, 2012
The topline declined by 26.4% on sequential basis. This was primarily because of rationalisation of Henkel distributors in the month of August and September which resulted in temporary loss in primary sales. Due to the contraction in topline, the company reported a negative operating margin and a total loss of `15cr for the quarter. As per the management, integration of JLL and Henkel distribution is underway and expected to be completed by December 2012 and sales expected to be normal for both the companies from coming quarters. At CMP of `182, the JLL (standalone) is trading a PE of 36.1x FY2014E earnings, hence, we recommend Neutral on the stock given its high valuation.
OP M (%)
9.0 10.9
Sales (` cr)
1,228 1,443
PAT (` cr)
63 103
EP S (`)
3.9 6.4
RoE (%)
10. 1 15. 6
P/E (x)
46. 8 28. 5
P/B V (x)
4.6 4.3
EV/EBITD A (x)
31.9 22.1
EV/sale s (x)
2.9 2.4
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
November 2, 2012
PAT (` cr) 15 28
Result Preview
Wipro (CMP: `361 / TP: `421 / Upside: 17%)
Wipro is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the companys IT services segment to post revenues of US$1,542mn, up 1.8% qoq. Volume growth is expected to be ~2.0% qoq. At the consolidated level, we expect the company to record revenues of `10,990cr, up 3.2% qoq. At a consolidated level, Wipro is expected to record 170bp qoq decline in its EBIT margin to 18.4%, due to negative wage hike impact. PAT is expected to come in at `1,446cr. We maintain Buy rating on the stock with target price of `421.
Y/E March FY2013E FY2014E Sales (` cr) 43,800 48,332 OPM (%) 19.5 19.3 PAT (` cr) 6,265 6,872 EPS (`) 25.6 28.1 ROE (%) 18.9 17.9 P/E (x) 14.1 12.9 P/BV (x) 2.7 2.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.7 7.4 EV/Sales (x) 1.7 1.4
Marico (CMP:`214/TP:/Upside:-)
Marico is expected to post a 21.7% yoy growth in its top-line to `1,186cr. The OPM is expected to grow by 158bp yoy to 13.5%, aided largely by fall in copra prices. The bottom-line is expected to grow by 43.1% yoy to `112cr. We maintain a Neutral view on the stock.
Y/E March FY2013E FY2014E Sales (` cr) 4,840 5,643 OPM (%) 13.1 13.1 PAT (` cr) 417 520 EPS (`) 6.8 8.5 ROE (%) 31.4 29.7 P/E (x) 31.5 25.3 P/BV (x) 8.7 6.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 21.6 18.2 EV/Sales (x) 2.8 2.4
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
November 2, 2012
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
November 2, 2012
Cipla (05/11/2012)
Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit 2QFY13E 2,026 515 25.4 371 2QFY12 1,732 475 27.4 309 20 y-o-y (%) 17 8 1QFY13 1,917 540 28.2 401 (7) q-o-q (%) 6 (5)
Corporate News
BMW launches two outlets in UP L&T bags new orders worth Rs 1,063 crore in Oct Oil India Ltd commences drilling operation in Gabon, Africa CESE may demerge spencer by next year
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
www.angelbroking.com