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AmericanElections2008:
Theforeignpolicypositionsoftheleading
candidatesforPresident
ipprCommissiononNationalSecurity,BackgroundBriefingNote2

byKenGude
February2008
©ippr2008

InstituteforPublicPolicyResearch
Challengingideas– Changingpolicy
2 ippr|AmericanElections2008:TheforeignpolicypositionsoftheleadingcandidatesforPresident

Aboutippr
TheInstituteforPublicPolicyResearch(ippr)istheUK’sleadingprogressivethinktank,producing
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ThispaperwasfirstpublishedinFebruary2008.©ippr2008

ipprCommissiononNationalSecurity
ThisbriefingnoteformspartoftheongoingactivitiesoftheipprCommissiononNationalSecurity.
Thisisanall-partyCommissionpreparinganindependentnationalsecuritystrategyfortheUK.Itis
co-chairedbyLordRobertsonofPortEllenandLordAshdownofNorton-sub-Hamdon.Thefull
Commissionmembershipincludes:
•Lord(Paddy)Ashdown,Co-Chair,formerleader
oftheLiberalDemocraticPartyandformer
HighRepresentativeforBosnia.
•Lord(George)Robertson,Co-Chair,former
SecretaryofStateforDefenceandformer
SecretaryGeneralofNATO.
•DrIanKearns,DeputyChair,DeputyDirector,
ippr.
•SirJeremyGreenstock,DirectoroftheDitchley
FoundationandformerBritishAmbassadorto
theUnitedNations.
•SirDavidOmand,formersecurityand
intelligencecoordinatorintheCabinetOffice
andformerPermanentSecretaryintheHome
Office.
•Lord(Charles)Guthrie,formerChiefofthe
DefenceStaff.
•ShamiChakrabarti,DirectorofLibertyand
formerHomeOfficelawyer.
•Lord(Martin)Rees,PresidentoftheRoyal
SocietyandMasterofTrinityCollege,
Cambridge.
•SirChrisFox,formerChiefConstableof
NorthamptonshireandformerPresidentofthe
AssociationofChiefPoliceOfficers.
•ProfessorMaryKaldor,CentreforGlobal
Governance,LondonSchoolofEconomics.
•ProfessorMichaelClarke,Director,Royal
UnitedServicesInstitute,andProfessorof
DefenceStudiesatKing’sCollegeLondon.
•FrancescaKlug,ProfessorialResearch
FellowattheLondonSchoolofEconomics
andacommissionerontheCommissionfor
EqualityandHumanRights(CEHR).
•ProfessorTariqModood,Directorofthe
LeverhulmeProgrammeonMigrationand
Citizenship,BristolUniversity.
•SenatorTomDaschle,formerMajority
LeaderoftheUnitedStatesSenate.
•ConstanzeStelzenmüller,Directorofthe
BerlinofficeoftheGermanMarshallFund.
•DavidMepham,DirectorofPolicyatSave
theChildrenandformerlyHeadofthe
InternationalProgrammeatippr.
•ProfessorJimNorton,formerchief
executiveoftheRadioCommunications
AgencyandnowattheInstituteof
Directors.
•IanTaylorMP,ChairoftheConservative
PartyPolicyTask-forceonScience,
Technology,EngineeringandMathematics,
ConservativeMPforEsherandWaltonand
formerministerforScienceandTechnology
attheDepartmentofTradeandIndustry.

ipprwouldliketothankEDS,RaytheonSystemsLtd,DeLaRueandBoozAllenHamiltonfortheir
generoussupportoftheCommission’sactivities.FormoreinformationontheworkoftheCommission
pleasegotowww.ippr.org/security
Theviewsinthisbriefingnotearethoseoftheauthoraloneandarebeingpublishedhereinthe
hopeofadvancingpublicdebate.TheydonotrepresenttheviewsoftheCommissionpanelorthe
viewsofanysponsoringorganisation.ThebriefingnoteserieseditorisIanKearns.
Abouttheauthor:KenGudeisaSeniorAdvisertotheCommissiononNationalSecuirty.Hehas
workedinWashingtonforseveralleadingAmericanthinktanks,includingtheCenterforAmerican
Progress,theCenterforNationalSecurityStudiesandtheCouncilonForeignRelations.
3 ippr|AmericanElections2008:TheforeignpolicypositionsoftheleadingcandidatesforPresident

AmericanElections2008:
TheforeignpolicypositionsoftheleadingcandidatesforPresident

Europeansarewatchingthe2008presidentialelectionintheUnitedStatesmorecloselythananyin
recentmemory.FewAmericanleadershavebeenasunpopularinEuropeasGeorgeW.Bush,and
manyacrossthecontinentarehopingforbigchangesfromthenextAmericanpresident.
Thisshortbackgroundbriefingpaperintroducestheemergingforeignpolicypositionsoftheleading
candidatesfortheWhiteHouseandhighlightskeypointsofdifferencebetweenindividualcandidates
ontheonehand,andbetweenoverallDemocraticandRepublicanoutlooksontheother.
PeeringintoacrystalballinanattempttoascertainpreciselyhowacandidatewouldactasPresident
isextremelydifficultespeciallyduringtheroughandtumblefightforthenominationnowgoingonin
bothparties.Observerswouldbewisetopaylittleattentiontomostofthebellicoserhetoriconshow
duringthecampaign,andtoavoidgettingwrappedupinthebackandforthofdebateoverany
particularissue.Thecandidates’immediateprioritiesareimportant,butitisdifficulttopredictwhich
issueswilldominatetheinternationalagenda,andapresidency,yearsintothefuture.Castingbackto
the2000campaignforexample,candidateGeorgeW.Bush’stopnationalsecurityprioritywasmissile
defence,anissuethathasreturnedtotheforefrontrecentlybutwhichcouldhardlybedescribedas
amongtheleadingforeignpolicyconcernsofhisadministration.
Conversely,andwithhindsight,welearnedalotmorefromcandidateBush’sforeignpolicyadviser
andcurrentSecretaryofStateCondoleezzaRice,whowroteintheinfluentialjournalForeignAffairs,
that‘foreignpolicyinaRepublicanadministrationwill…proceedfromthefirmgroundofthenational
interest,notfromtheinterestsofanillusoryinternationalcommunity’(Rice2000,emphasisadded).
Againstthisbackdrop,thoselookingforsignalsoffuturebehaviourshouldfocusonthephilosophical
andstrategicapproachesofferedbythecandidates.

Twodifferentvisions
InthecurrentcampaignforPresident,votersarebeingpresentedwithtwoverydifferentvisionsof
Americanforeignpolicy.AlltheleadingDemocraticcandidatescallforamajorstrategicshiftinpolicy
builtaroundasustainedefforttorestoretheUS’smoralauthority.TheyalsocallfortheUStoleada
revitalisedandexpandedglobalalliance,believingthecountryanditsalliestobemoresecureand
abletomeetabroadersetofchallengeswhenworkingtogetherthanwhenworkingalone.The
remarkableunityoftheDemocraticcandidatesstemsfromafirmbeliefthatboththecausesand
consequencesofthefailureofGeorgeW.Bush’sforeignpolicyarereadilyapparenttovotersandthat
theDemocraticelectorateishungryforchange.Withinthisframe,however,eachoftheleading
candidatesputsforwardadistinctpersonalapproachtointernationalpolicywithdifferingramifications
andimpactsforalliesinEurope.
AmongleadingRepublicancandidates,althoughthereismorediversityofviewthanamongtheir
Democraticcounterparts,thereisalsoaclearunderlyingRepublicanbeliefthatthepower,position
andsecurityoftheUSaredependentonthestrengthofitsmilitaryandthatonlythroughsustained
investmentinthearmedforceswilltheUSachieveitsforeignandsecuritypolicygoals.Aswiththe
Democrats,theleadingcandidatesdifferintheirindividualphilosophies,butwithonenotable
exception(JohnMcCain),theycanbegenerallyclassifiedasfavouringeitherthemoreaggressive
approachofGeorgeW.Bush’sfirstterm,ortherelativelymorepragmaticbutstilllessthanfully
multilateralstyleofhissecond.Itisunclearwhethereitherofthesemodelswouldbecompatiblewith
theneedtorepairafragmentedandstillstrainedtransatlanticalliance.
4 ippr|AmericanElections2008:TheforeignpolicypositionsoftheleadingcandidatesforPresident

TheDemocrats1
TheDemocraticcontest2 hasbeennarroweddowntothreecandidates,ofwhichtwoofthem,Hillary
ClintonandBarackObama,arepittedinaback-and-forthbattleforthenominationthathasgrown
increasinglybitter,whileJohnEdwards3 remainsindistantthirdplace.HillaryClinton,inhersecond
termasaNewYorksenatorafterservingasFirstLadyduringBillClinton’seightyearsinoffice,was
oncetheclearfrontrunner.Shewasknockedoffthatperchquiteforcefullyafterathird-placefinishin
theIowacaucusbehindbothEdwardsandthewinner,Obama,surprisingmanyobserverswithhowfar
sheappearedtohavefallensoquickly.Hercampaignseemedalmostatanendbeforesherightedthe
shipwithastunningnarrowwininNewHampshire,followedbyanotherslimvictoryinNevada.
BarackObama,afirst-termsenatorfromIllinois,appearedtoberollingtoanearlyknockoutblowin
NewHampshireafterhisunexpectedlywidemarginofvictoryinIowa,whenyetanothertwistwas
thrownintothiscampaignasClintonstunnedthepoliticalworldbycapturingtheNewHampshire
primary.HetoohasregainedhisfootingandscoredablowoutwininSouthCarolina.
JohnEdwards3’roleinthisracefromhereonislikelyeithertobeasaspoilerorkingmaker,butfor
whomitisunclear.Hischancesofwinningthenominationareextremelyremote,butheisunlikelyto
abandontheracebeforethe5Februaryprimaries.HelikelyhelpedObamaintheSouthCarolina
primary,butcomeSuperTuesdayon5February,when22states(andtwoadditionalraces)hold
primariesandcaucuses,itisbelievedthathehelpsClintonmore,peelingsomeofthechangevoters
awayfromObama.AllsignspointtowardsatitanicbattleonSuperTuesdaybetweenthetwo
heavyweightsatthetopoftheDemocraticrace,andthebattleforthenominationmaywellextend
throughallofFebruaryandintoMarch.
ThewarinIraq,theforgottenwarinAfghanistan,theBushAdministration’spoliciesondetaineesat
GuantanamoandAbuGhraib,thelackofactiononclimatechange,thefactthatOsamabinLadenis
stillatlarge,andthefailuretostopthegenocideinDarfurallriletheDemocraticelectorateand
politiciansalikeandprovideaclearmandatetowhomeverwillbetheDemocraticnomineetopursuea
policyofsignificantchangefromthelastsevenyears.WhenaddressingthestateoftheUnitedStates’
internationalpolicy,theleadingcandidatesallheedthiscallandusevirtuallythesamelanguageto
describetheirvisionoftheUSintheworld.
Clintonargues:‘thenextUSpresidentwillhaveamomentofopportunitytoreintroduceAmericato
theworldandrestoreourleadership’(Clinton2007a).ObamachoosestolinkittothewarinIraq
whenhesays:‘wemustbringthewartoaresponsibleendandthenrenewourleadership–military,
diplomatic,moral–toconfrontnewthreatsandcapitalizeonnewopportunities’(Obama2007a).
EdwardsalsotiesAmericanrecoverytoendingthewarinIraqandclaims:‘inthewakeoftheIraq
debacle,wemustrestoreAmerica’sreputationformoralleadershipandreengagewiththeworld’
(Edwards2007a).
Itisnotjustinthesecallsforrestoration,renewal,andreengagementthattheinternationalpostureof
theseleadingcandidatesissimilar.Severalothercommonthemesareapparentamongthem.The
Democraticcandidatesidentifysimilarthreatsandchallengesintoday’sinternationalsecurity

1.EachoftheleadingcandidateshaspreviewedtheirforeignpoliciesintheUS’sleadinginternational
affairsjournalForeignAffairs.Thisseriesprovidesathoroughexplanationoftheirvisionandintentions
andcoupledwithseveralmajoraddressesonforeignandsecuritypolicy,formsthebasisfortheforegoing
analysis.Thearticlesandspeechesare:Clinton2007a,b,2006;Obama2007a-c;Edwards2007a-d(see
Referencessectionofthispaperforfulldetails).
2.TheDemocraticraceoriginallyhadafieldofeightcandidates:Clinton,ObamaandEdwardsalong
withNewMexicoGovernorBillRichardson,SenatorsJoeBiden(Delaware)andChrisDodd(Connecticut),
andtwowhoheldnorealisticchanceofevercontendingforthenomination,CongressmanDenis
KucinichofOhioandformerAlaskaSenatorMikeGravel.Richardson,BidenandDoddhaveall
withdrawnfromtheracebutKucinichandGravelcontinuetheirquixoticpursuitofthenomination.
3.JohnEdwardsunexpectedlywithdrewfromtheraceafterthispaperhadgonetopublication.Hewill
notbeactivelycompetingforvotesintheremainingprimaries,butwhichcandidatehissupporters
choosetobackcouldverywellbedecisiveinaveryclosebattleforthenomination.
5 ippr|AmericanElections2008:TheforeignpolicypositionsoftheleadingcandidatesforPresident

environment,fromnuclearterrorismtothecomingclimatecatastrophe.Thereisbroadagreement
abouttheneedtorebuildthealliancestructurethathasservedAmericanandEuropeaninterestsso
wellandtoimprovethemultilateralinstitutionsthatsupportthatsystem.Thereisagreement,too,on
theneedtoendtheover-relianceonthemilitaryandtousealloftheinstrumentsofnationalpower
toachievetheUS’sglobalobjectiveswhilefosteringgreatercooperationinthefightagainstterrorism,
bolsteringtheflaggingNATOeffortinAfghanistan,andreturningtoactiveandconsistent
engagementintheMiddleEastPeaceProcess.Takingseriousactiontoreducegreenhousegas
emissions,reinvigoratingaflounderingnuclearnon-proliferationregimeandworkingtowardsnuclear
disarmamentallalsocommandwidesupport.
GlobalisationandtradehavedividedtheDemocraticPartyfordecades,althoughthereisnowmore
recognitionthroughoutthePartythatseriousactionmustbetakentomanagethenegative
consequencesoffreetrade,andallthemajorcandidatesreflectthisgrowingconsensus.Evena
majorityofRepublicans,accordingtoarecentpollintheWallStreetJournal,believethatfreetrade
hasharmedtheAmericaneconomy(WallStreetJournal2007).Lookfortradeandglobalisationto
becomemoreprominentcampaignissuesinthegeneralelectionparticularlyiftheAmericaneconomy
continueswhatappearstobeaslidetowardsrecession.Thereissomepolicydisagreement,principally
overthedirectionofAmericanpolicyinIraqandoverhowbesttodealwithIran,yetthemostserious
divisionsamongthecandidatesaredifferencesintoneandoverallapproach.
HillaryRodhamClinton
HillaryClinton’sforeignpolicypositionsdrawheavilyontheexperienceofhertimeasFirstLady
duringthe1990sandprojectanAmericaninternationaloutlookthatconformstothepoliciespursued
duringthepresidencyofherhusband.Democratsatthattimewereconstantlyfightingaperception
thattheywereweakonnationalsecurityanditisbecauseofthatexperienceratherthantheoften-
citedconcernsabouthergender,thatHillaryClintonfocusesmoreonissuesofhardsecuritythanthe
othertopcontenders.Sheusesemotivelanguagelike‘powerandprinciple’and‘astrongerAmerica’
andsteersasteady,practicalcourseinanefforttoburnishhercredentialsasalegitimatecommander
inchief.
Butitisnotjustthewordssheusestodescribeherpoliciesthatsetherapartfromtheother
Democraticcandidates.Someofherpositionsonpressingissuesaredifferent,perhapsthemost
obviousbeingonIraq.Asasenator,shevotedtogivePresidentBushauthoritytousemilitaryforce
againstSaddamHussein,andwhileshehasbeenastrongcriticoftheBushAdministration’s
implementationofthatauthority,shehasconsistentlyrefusedtoadmitheroriginalvotewasa
mistake.
Lookingforward,shewillnotprovideatimetableforwithdrawal,thoughpromisesonewithin60days
oftakingoffice,andsupportsamuchmoregradualredeploymentofforcesoutofIraqthatcould
leavesignificantnumbersofUStroopsinthecountrythroughtheendofherfirstterm.Becauseof
this,shefocuseslessonIraqthantheothercandidatesandavoidsdrawingparallelsbetweenthe
situationinIraqandthatinIran.ShehasprudentlynotruledoutmilitaryactionagainstIran,but
clearlyprefersamorerobustdiplomaticefforttopersuadetheIraniansthatitisintheirintereststo
forgotheirnuclearambitions.Sheismorecautious,however,withregardstodirectnegotiationswith
Iranthanherrivals.
BarackObama
Befittinghisbroadercampaignforthepresidencyandhisrelativeyouth,BarackObamabringsa
senseoffreshnesstohisapproachtointernationalpolicyandarticulatesavisionofpositive
Americanengagementwiththeworld.ThatvisiondrawsontheAmericanexperienceof
responsiblegloballeadershipbutarguesthatthethreatsandchallengeswefaceinthemodern
worldrequirenewideasandnewthinking.Nowhereisthismoreevident,orcontroversial,thanin
hisproposaltostartdirectnegotiationswithIran,evenmeetingwithPresidentMahmoud
Ahmadinejadifnecessary,inanefforttohaltIran’snuclearprogramme.TheUShasnothadany
directbi-lateralcontactswiththeIranianssince1979.AttheendoftheClintonadministration
therewassomemovementtowardsbeginninganinformaldialogue,butnothingthatrepresents
6 ippr|AmericanElections2008:TheforeignpolicypositionsoftheleadingcandidatesforPresident

suchasignificantbreakwithestablishedpolicyasObama’sproposal.Hiscriticspointtothis
proposalasevidenceofhisinexperience.ButforObama,eventhiscriticismfitsintohisvisionof
breakingthrougholdboundariesandfindingnewsolutionstothechallengeshewouldfacein
office.
Anotheraspectofhiswillingnesstoseekoutnovelsolutionsisanewemphasisontheimportanceof
theUSactingbeyonditsownnationalinterestandtowardsacommongood.Hehasanewapproach
to‘softpower’asanunderusedpartofthecountry’sinternationalpolicy.Hewouldreorganisethe
instrumentsofAmericangovernmentthatdeliverforeignassistanceandbetterintegratethose
programmesintooverallgovernmentpolicytomoreeffectivelyachievethecountry’sinternational
objectives.Heproposesamassiveincreaseinaidandanewoutlookthatviewsforeignassistanceas
aninvestmentindevelopingsocieties,improvingeducation,healthcareandotherciviland
governmentservicestohelpbreakthecycleofsystemicpoverty.And,ofcourse,ifBarackHussein
ObamabecamePresident,hisphotograph,hisname,andhislifestoryalonewouldbeapowerfulnew
symboloftheUnitedStatesofAmerica.
JohnEdwards
IfaprizewereavailableforbeingthemostcriticalofPresidentGeorgeW.Bush’spoliciesamongthe
leadingDemocraticcandidates,thenJohnEdwardswouldwinit.Edwardshaschosenamorepopulist
approachtohisoppositiontothePresident,particularlyinIraq,Iran,andthebroaderwaronterrorism.
HewouldhaveallcombattroopsoutofIraqwithinhisfirstyearinoffice.Hedrawscloseparallels
betweenthebuild-uptowarwithIraqin2002-03andthecurrentsituationinIranandrejectsapre-
emptivestrikeonIraninfavourofastrongerdiplomaticapproach.Hegoessquarelyafterthe
terminologyofthe‘waronterrorism’andcallsforthemostsignificantoverhaulofinternationalpolicy
onterrorismofallthecandidates.
Edwards,morethaneitheroftheotherleadingDemocraticcandidates,defineshisinternationalpolicy
asanegativereactionagainsttheBushAdministration’spoliciesratherthanbypushingan
independent,positiveagendaofhisown.

TheRepublicans4
TheRepublicanfieldhasbeenmuchmorewideopenandfluidthantheDemocrats’,withfive
differentcandidatesattimesclaimingthemantleoffrontrunner.5 Theracehasfinallysettleddownto
athree-waycontestheadedintoSuperTuesdaywiththerecentdeparturesofFredThompsonand
RudyGiuliani.
EarlyleaderMcCainsawhiscampaignnearlydisintegrateduring2007buthascomebackstrongly
afterwinsintheNewHampshire,SouthCarolina,andFloridaprimariesandistheclosestthingtoa
legitimatefrontrunnerthisracehashad.ItisnotallsmoothsailingforMcCain,however,asitremains
tobeseenifhehasenoughsupportamongactualRepublicanstoultimatelywinthenominationifthe
racenarrowstoasmallerfield.MuchofMcCain’ssupportcomesfrommoderateRepublicansand
registeredIndependents.FredThompson’srecentwithdrawalfromtheracenarrowsthefieldof
candidatescompetingforthevotesofconservativeRepublicanstojustMittRomneyandMike
Huckabee.YetthedepartureofRudyGiulianiclearsthefieldofanychallengertoMcCainamong
moderateRepublicans.TheNewHampshireandSouthCarolinaprimariesareconsidered‘open’
primariesandallowIndependentstovoteinthem.Mostoftheupcomingprimariesare‘closed’and

4.FouroftheleadingcandidateshavepreviewedtheirforeignpoliciesintheleadingAmerican
internationalaffairsjournalForeignAffairs:McCain,Romney,Huckabee,andGiuliani.Thisseries
providesathoroughexplanationoftheirvisionandintentionsandcoupledwithseveralmajoraddresses
onforeignandsecuritypolicy,formsthebasisfortheforegoinganalysis.Thearticlesandspeechesare:
McCain2007a-d,Romney2007a-c,Huckabee2007a-b,2008(seeReferencesforfulldetails).
5.ThefirstfrontrunnerwasJohnMcCain,followedbyRudyGiulianiwhofellbehindFredThompson,
whosuccumbedtoMittRomney,whowasbeateninIowabyMikeHuckabee.Outoftheninecandidates
thathavebeenintheraceinall,fournowremain:JohnMcCain,MittRomney,MikeHuckabeeandRon
Paul.RudyGiuliani,FredThompson,TomTancredo,DuncanHunterandSamBrownbackhavewithdrawn.
7 ippr|AmericanElections2008:TheforeignpolicypositionsoftheleadingcandidatesforPresident

onlyallowpreviouslyregisteredRepublicanstovote.Forexample,inSouthCarolina,MikeHuckabee
wonamongRepublicans,withMcCain’smarginofvictorybeingprovidedbyIndependentswhovoted
intheRepublicanprimary.McCainhasclearedthefirsthurdle,winningtheFloridaprimary,andnow
carriessignificantmomentuminSuperTuesday.
Romneyonceenjoyedwideleadsinthefirsttwostatesonlytolosethemboth,butrecoveredwitha
campaign-savingwinoverMcCaininMichiganandremainsviableduetohisvastfinancialresources
andreservationsaboutMcCainamongconservatives.Hecantakethecontesttoall21statesholding
Republicanprimariesorcaucuseson5February,butnowlimpsintoSuperTuesdayneedingamajor
reversaloffortunetosecurethenomination.
InsurgentMikeHuckabee,aformerBaptistpreacher,hascapturedtheevangelicalbaseandusedtheir
supporttosurgetovictoryinthefirsttestatthepollsinIowa,buthasstruggledtobroadenhis
appealbeyondreligiousconservativesandremainswinlessinallofthecontestssincethen.Henow
hasnorealhopeofwinningthenominationbarringsomethingstrangehappening,butcanstillbea
factorintherace,peelingoffsomeconservativevotersfromRomneyandfurtherclearingthepathto
thenominationforMcCain.
IftheDemocraticprimaryelectorateisgivingitscandidatesamandateforchange,Republicanprimary
voterswantmoreofthesame,andperhapsanevenmoreaggressiveapproachthanPresidentBushis
currentlypursuing.TheRepublicanelectoratestronglybacksaggressiveprosecutionofthewaron
terrorismandthewarinIraq.Consequently,thewaronterrorismandAmericanmilitarypowerarethe
dominatingthemesofeverymajorRepublicancandidate’sforeignandsecuritypolicypositions.
WheretheDemocratscriticiseanAmericanforeignpolicytooreliantonthemilitary,theRepublicans
callforanevenbiggerinvestmentinmilitarypersonnelandequipment.AllRepublicansview
Reagan’sdefencebuild-upduringthe1980sastheprimaryfactorthatbroughtaboutthedemiseof
theSovietUnionandcastigatethedefencepoliciesoftheClintonadministration,ridiculingthepost-
ColdWardrawdowninforcesandshrinkingofdefencebudgets.Forthem,itwasthisnaïvepursuitof
a‘peacedividend’andacostly‘holidayfromhistory’thathascausedsomanyoftheUS’scurrent
problems.Itisclear,then,thatnoRepublicancandidatecouldespouseamajorchangeinpolicyfrom
theBushAdministrationonIraqorterrorismandhaveanyhopeofwinningthenominationanditis
thisbackdropthatexplainsMittRomney’spledgeto‘doubleGuantanamo’(SouthCarolinaGOP
Debate2007).
ThoughtheleadingcontendersfortheRepublicannominationarecertainlylesssimilartooneanother
thantheirDemocraticcounterparts,afewcommonthemesdoexist.Befittinganapproachthat
emphasisesthemilitary,itisthemilitaryallianceNATOthatreceivesthemostattention,whilethe
UnitedNationscomesinforheavycriticism.ThelatterisnotoverlysurprisingastheUNisheldinvery
lowesteembymostRepublicans,butitisthenatureoftheapproachtoNATOthatisofgreat
interest.Eachofthemajorcandidatescallsforsomesortofexpansionofthealliance,whetheritisto
includenationsbeyondEuropeandtheNorthAtlantic,ortobecomethemilitaryforcebehindanew
LeagueofDemocracies.Eachalsoagreesthatchangeisnecessaryintheorganisationofcivilian
agenciesresponsibleforinternationalpolicy6,thoughevenheretheRepublicanpreferenceforthe
militaryapproachshinesthroughwithacallforareorganisationofcivilianorganisationsalong
Pentagonlines.
Nevertheless,thecommonthemesdonotobscuresomerealdifferencesinthecandidates’experience
ininternationalpolicy,theirapproachtoforeignaffairs,andthebreadthoftheirforeignpolicyvisions
andpriorities.

6.TheseagenciesincludetheStateDepartment,theEnergyDepartment,andtheAgencyfor
InternationalDevelopment,alongwithportionsofotherdepartmentsincludingJusticeandHomeland
Security.
8 ippr|AmericanElections2008:TheforeignpolicypositionsoftheleadingcandidatesforPresident

JohnMcCain
ArizonaSenatorJohnMcCainisbyfarthemostexperiencedoftheRepublicancandidates.Afive-
termsenatorservingonboththeArmedServicesandForeignRelationsCommittees,hehashonedhis
outlookonforeignandsecuritypolicyatthehighestlevelsofthelegislature.Itisnot,however,just
thisWashingtonexperiencethatdefineshisvisionoftheUSintheworld,asheisoneofthemore
prominentPrisonersofWarinAmericanhistory,servingmorethanfiveyearsattheinfamousHanoi
Hiltonwherehewassubjectedtotortureandabuse.
ThisisMcCain’ssecondbidfortheRepublicannomination,duellingwithGeorgeW.Bushin2000,
duringwhichheearnedareputationassomethingofamaverick,andheisnotpopularwithmany
conservatives.Overthelastsevenyearshehascourtedsomeofthoseright-wingRepublicansbut
retainsareputation,particularlywiththemedia,asamanofclearconvictionthatdoesnotoften
bendtopublicopinion.ThetwobestexamplesofthisarehispoliciesonIraqandimmigration.Heis
theearliestandstrongestproponentofthecurrentUSmilitarysurgeinIraqandhasmaintainedthis
positiondespiteclearoppositiontoitoutsidetheRepublicanelectorate.Itcouldbearguedthathe
tailoredthatstancetocurryfavouramonghisparty’sbase,butthatdoesnotexplainhispositionon
immigration,anissueatleastasimportantasIraqtoRepublicanprimaryvoters.Buckingthewaveof
anti-immigrationsentimentsweepingthecountry,McCainhassteadfastlysupportedaplantoprovide
apathwaytocitizenshipforthoseillegalimmigrantsalreadyintheUSandimprovethebroader
immigrationsystemtogivemorepeopleachancetoenterthecountrylegallyinsearchof
employment.ThisisveryunpopularwithRepublicanvoters,andMcCain’ssupportforthisproposal
promptedhiscampaign’sstrugglesin2007andcouldendupcostinghimthenomination.
McCain’sforeignpolicyvisionunderscoresthebreadthofhisexperience.HeistheoneRepublican
candidateforwhomitisappropriatetodiscussawideseriesofforeignpolicypriorities,because
leavingasidehispositionsonIraqandtheroleofthemilitary(andthoseareabigissuestoleave
aside),hisforeignpolicyagendamorecloselyresemblestheDemocraticcandidates’thanthe
Republicans’.McCaincallsforarevitalisationofthetransatlanticalliance,arestorationoftheUS’s
moralauthoritybyclosingGuantanamoandrenouncingtorture,acap-and-tradesystemtoreduce
greenhousegasemissions,arenewedemphasisontheMiddleEastPeaceProcess,andarecognition
that‘powerintheworldtodayismovingeast’,necessitatinganewapproachtoChinaandtheentire
Asia-Pacificregion.
McCain’sbiggestproposalistoestablishaLeagueofDemocraciesthatwouldbebetterequipped
thantheUNtoaddressthecrisisinDarfur,combatHIV/AIDS,andconfrontenvironmentaldisasters.
TheseprioritiesaresomarkedlydifferentfromtheotherRepublicancandidatesthattheycannotbe
reconciledwithaone-dimensionalforeignpolicyfocusedontheUSmilitary.Hiscommitmentto
maintainingalargeUStrooppresenceinIraqmayhavetheconsequenceofforcinghisotherpriorities
tothesidelines.
MittRomney
FormerMassachusettsGovernorMittRomneyisrelativelyinexperiencedinforeignaffairs,servingjust
onetermasgovernorafteralong,extremelysuccessfulandlucrativecareerinprivateequity
management.Yet,lookingbeyondRomney’shighlychargedrhetoricintheprimarycampaign,he
presentsaforeignandsecuritypolicymoreakintotheBushAdministrationofthelastfewyearsthan
tothebravadoofitsearlierdays.HeheavilyemphasisesthepowerandroleoftheUSmilitaryand
callsforstaggeringincreasesinthesizeandbudgetofthecountry’sarmedforces,buthealso
emphasisestheimportanceoftheWesternalliancestructureandcontributionsthatcanandmustbe
madebythecountry’sallies.Romney’svisionistobuildastrategytounitetheUSanditsallies
‘aroundasharedunderstandingofhowtomeetanewgenerationofchallenges’(Romney2007a).
ThesetofnewchallengesthatRomneyidentifiesisstillfocusedprimarilyonhardnationalsecurity
issuesandheleavesoutsomeofthemosturgentissuesfacingtheinternationalcommunity.Heison
recordasdescribingwhathecalls‘thejihadistthreat’as‘thedefiningchallengeofourtime’,andhe
recommendsexpandingNATOorcreatinganewNATOdesignedtodefeatradicalIslamism(Romney
2007a).Heiscertainlykeeneronnon-proliferationthanothercandidates,butrestrictshisproposals
9 ippr|AmericanElections2008:TheforeignpolicypositionsoftheleadingcandidatesforPresident

towhathewouldlikeothercountriestodoandmakesnomentionofthegrowingmovementinsome
quarterstowardssignificantreductionsintheUSnucleararsenal.7
RomneywoulddirectalargediplomaticeffortintheMiddleEast,focusingonboostingPalestinian
economicprospectsratherthananemphasisontheIsraeli-Palestinianpeaceprocess.Climatechange
ishardlyaddressedinanenergypolicymorefocusedonendingtherelianceonforeignoilthrough
greaterdomesticenergyproduction.Romney’sviewsarevirtuallyunknownonthechangingpower
dynamicsofthemodernworldsymbolisedbytherisingpowerofChinaandtherenewedpowerof
Russia.HisattentiontopovertyalleviationandHIV/AIDSislimitedtoacallforareorganisationofthe
civilianagencieswithforeignpolicyresponsibilitiesalongaPentagonmodel.Hedoesappeartohave
learnedsomeofthelessonsofthelastsixyears,butisstillinexperiencedinforeignaffairsandwhile
hisfocusisbroaderthansomecandidates’single-mindeddevotiontothewaronterrorism,hestill
lacksclarityonanumberofimportantissuesthatwillfacethenextPresident.
MikeHuckabee
FormerArkansasGovernorMikeHuckabeeisbyfarandawaytheleastexperiencedininternational
affairsofanyoftheleadingcandidatesfromeitherparty.Healsohasbeenviewedasunlikelytowin
thenominationasarelativelyunknowngovernorfromasmallSouthernstatewithnonational
exposureandlittlemoneyinacontestfullofwell-financedcandidateswithnationalreputations.But
atthetimeofwriting,noothercandidatehastakenfirmholdoftheraceandwithhiswininIowaand
narrowdefeatinSouthCarolina,hemustbecountedasarealcontender.
WithHuckabee’slackofexperienceandhisfocusonthesocialissuesthatareprioritiesforhis
evangelicalconservativebase,hisforeignpoliciesareextremelyunderdeveloped.Hismostdetailed
efforttodatetolayouthisforeignpolicyintheJanuary/February2008editionofForeignAffairs
grabbedheadlines– andcriticismfromhisopponent– forhisassertionthattheBushadministration’s
foreignpolicysufferedfroman‘arrogantbunkermentality’(Huckabee2008).ItistruethatHuckabee
pledgestochangethetoneofAmericanforeignpolicy,amovethatwouldnodoubtbewelcomedin
Europe.ButwhatisalsoevidentfromhisForeignAffairs pieceisthathehasalimitedgraspon
internationalrelations,literallyequatingitwithahighschoolpopularitycontestinhisopening
paragraph.Furtheroninthepiece,asomewhatdizzyingconstructionmasksafewdecentideas,such
astheemphasisonalternativeenergysourcesstrangelyplacedinthefirstparagraphofasection
aboutusingoverwhelmingmilitaryforceonthebattlefield.
Basedonthecampaignsofar,itishardtoenvisionaHuckabeepresidencydominatedbyhisvirtually
non-existentforeignpolicystrategy.Intheextremelyunlikelyeventthathewinsthenomination,a
betterpredictivetoolwouldbetoobservetheteamofforeignpolicyexpertsthathebroughtontohis
campaignandintohisadministration.

Conclusion
TheUnitedStateshascometoaforkintheroad.InNovember2008,theAmericanpeoplewillchoose
fromtwodivergentvisionsofforeignpolicy.Nootherelectiondatingbackintothelastcenturyhas
presentedsuchaclearchoice.The2000electionsetinmotionamajorstrategicshiftinAmerican
foreignpolicy,butthatelectionwascertainlynotdecidedonit,andalthoughhindsightallowsusto
seethatthesignswerethere,foreignpolicywasnotamajoraspectofthe2000campaign.Thefirst
post-ColdWarelectionin1992wasnotaboutforeignpolicyeither,andnoelectionduringtheCold
Warofferedsuchastarklydifferentchoice.
Thisyear,theRepublicancandidates,withthenotableexceptionofJohnMcCain,wouldleadtheUS
downasimilarpathtothatofthecurrentadministration.AnewRepublicanpresidentwould,by
instinct,emphasisethemilitaryastheprimaryengineofAmericansecurity,wouldworkwithallieson

7.ThemajorproponentsofsignificantreductionsinUSnuclearweaponsareHenryKissinger,former
SecretaryofStateGeorgeSchultz,formerSecretaryofDefenseBillPerry,andformerSenatorSamNunn.
10 ippr|AmericanElections2008:TheforeignpolicypositionsoftheleadingcandidatesforPresident

anadhocbasiswhiledevaluingformalalliancesandinstitutions,andwouldfocusonterrorismand
militarythreatswhilesideliningsomeoftherapidlydevelopingchallengeslikelytodominatethe
securitylandscapeinthecomingdecades.OnlyJohnMcCainwouldbroadenthescopeofRepublican
foreignpolicyprioritiestoincludemajoremergingissueslikeclimatechangeandapowershifttowards
Asia.ButevenMcCainbelievesinthecentralroleoftheUSmilitaryinAmericanforeignandsecurity
policyandhisapproachtointernationalaffairswouldnotdeviatefromtheotherRepublican
candidatesinthatcriticalarea.
Ontheotherpath,theDemocraticcandidateswouldsteeraverydifferentcourse.AnewDemocratic
presidentwouldseektorestoretheUS’spositionattheheartofathrivingsystemofinternational
alliances,wouldinvesteffortandpoliticalcapitalacrossabroadersetofexistingandemergingthreats
andwouldemphasisealltheinstrumentsofnationalpower,notjustthemilitary,toachievecommon
objectives.
Giventhestarknatureofthechoice,itislikelythatAmerica’sroleintheworld,andEuropean
perceptionsofit,maybeshapedforagenerationbytheoutcomeofthisyear’scampaign.

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