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Interested Parties Project New America and USAction November 2, 2012 New Statewide Poll in Michigan Shows President Obama up by Seven Points
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A statewide telephone survey of 500 likely voters in Michigan was conducted by Grove Insight October 31 to November 1 using professional interviewers. Quotas were set to ensure calling into cell phone only households. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.

Michigan voters see Obama, not Romney, as the Car Guy

Barack Obama is currently ahead of Mitt Romney by seven percentage points (48% to 41%). One key reason for the Presidents big lead is because Michigan voters are much more inclined to believe he will be better for the auto industry By nearly 20 points, voters believe Obama will be better for one of the states most important economic sectors than Romney (53% Obama, 34% Romney). In the head-to-head matchup, Obama leads 84% to 9% among those who believe the President will be better for the auto industry. Connected to this, the President also has considerably better numbers than Romney for working to re-build the middle class economy (50% to 38%), indicating faith in Obamas ability to recover and rebuild an economy that extends well beyond the automotive sector.

Presidential Vote Michigan

80% 60% 40% 20%

+7 48% 41%

2%
0%
Other Obama 45% Lean Obama 3% Romney 39% Lean Romney 2%

9%
Undecided

The President also has a double-digit lead in the early vote (49% to 39% among already voted). There are two other trends of significance. While the President has a big lead with women (50% to 39%) he also has a slight edge among men (46% to 44%). And while Obamas lead among younger voters is a given (51% to 39%), he is also up a bit over Romney among voters over age 50 (46% to 43%). Another challenge for Romney is that voters are not terribly willing to take his message at face value. Nearly half (45%) say, you cant really believe what he says, is more descriptive of Romney than Obama.

Who does it better describe Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? [Names rotated]
Obama Romney 34 38 38 45

Will be better for the auto industry Will work to re-build the middle class economy Has a concrete plan to move our country forward You cant really believe what he says

53 50 42 35

Now Im going to read you some proposals. For each one, please tell me whether you favor or oppose that proposal.
Favor Oppose 77 20 85 15

Ending traditional Medicare Ending tax breaks for businesses that ship American jobs overseas and replacing them with tax incentives to create jobs in the U.S. Cutting Social Security benefits Creating jobs by investing in repair of roads, bridges, and schools

12 69 8 78

Demographic comparisons between this Grove Insight poll, the voterfile and other recent public surveys conducted in Michigan
Grove Insight Poll October 31 to November 1 The actual voter file PPP Poll October 30-31 Gravis Marketing October 5-8

Voters under age 50 Voters over age 50 White voters African American Voters Other Women Men Self IDd Republican Self IDd Independent Self IDd Democrat

46% 53% 82% 10% 8% 52% 48% 28% 35% 35%

53% 47% 81% 15% 4% 53% 47% NA NA NA

37% (18 45) 63% (46 65+) 82% 12% 6% 55% 45% 33% 24% 43%

43% 57% 83% 11% 6% 53% 47% 31% 32% 37%

www.projectnewamerica.com @PNAmerica

www.usaction.org @USAction