Programme of the th 10 International Probabilistic Workshop 15 -16 November 2012

IGS

10TH INTERNATIONAL PROBABILISTIC WORKSHOP 15 16 November 2012

10TH INTERNATIONAL PROBABILISTIC WORKSHOP 15 16 November 2012

It is with great pleasure that we welcome you to Stuttgart and to our Symposium 10th International Probabilistic Workshop. In the previous years a series of probabilistic workshops on safety and risk in civil engineering were organized starting in 2003/2004 in Dresden, followed 2005 in Vienna, 2006 in Berlin, 2007 in Ghent, 2008 in Darmstadt, 2009 in Delft, 2010 in Szczecin and 2011 in Braunschweig. We will continue this series with the 10th Probabilistic Workshop which will take place on 15 and 16 November 2012 at University of Stuttgart, Germany. The workshop is organised jointly by the Institute of Geotechnical Engineering of the University of Stuttgart and the University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna. Safety, reliability and risk are key issues in a world with continuously increasing complexity. Road and railway accidents, tunnel fires or natural hazards like hurricanes, floods or earthquakes show the vulnerability of our technical facilities and the natural and social environment. Therefore the consideration of safety and risk is without doubt a very important issue during the design of technical facilities, such as civil engineering structures and infrastructure works. Questions about the analysis and treatment of safety and risk arise, as well as questions about optimal safety levels or questions about acceptable values. The conference programme includes 22 papers from international researchers and four invited internationally renowned key note speakers. The conference program is the result of the enthusiasm and efforts of our keynote lecturers and the authors who have contributed with their papers to this symposium. All these initiatives and efforts are gratefully acknowledged. We believe that we have brought together all the main ingredients for a successful and worthwhile conference. We hope you all enjoy the conference and wish you welcome to pleasant days during the 10th International Probabilistic Workshop 2012.

Maximilian Huber Christian Moormann Dirk Proske

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10TH INTERNATIONAL PROBABILISTIC WORKSHOP 15 16 November 2012

Scientific and technical coordinators Dipl.-Ing. Dipl.-Ing. Maximilian Huber Prof. Dr.-Ing. Christian Moormann Dr.-Ing. Dirk Proske

Scientific Committee Prof. K. Bergmeister, Vienna, Austria Prof. C. Bucher, Vienna, Austria Prof. H. Budelmann, Braunschweig, Germany Prof. B. Ellingwood, Atlanta,USA Prof. M. H. Faber, Lyngby, Denmark Prof. D. Frangopol, Lehigh, USA Prof. P. van Gelder, Delft, Netherlands Prof. C.-A. Graubner, Darmstadt, Germany Prof. L. Gucma, Szczecin, Poland Prof. M. Hicks, Delft, Netherlands Prof. M. Holicky, Praha, Czech Republic Prof. G. Mancini, Torino, Italy Prof. B. Mazurkiewicz, Gdansk, Poland Prof. C. Moormann, Stuttgart, Germany Prof. R. Melchers, Callaghan, Australia Prof. F. Nadim, Oslo, Norway Prof. U. Peil, Braunschweig, Germany Dr. D. Proske, Vienna, Austria Prof. H.-F. Schweiger, Graz, Austria Prof. D. Straub, Munich, Germany Prof. A. Strauss, Vienna, Austria
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10TH INTERNATIONAL PROBABILISTIC WORKSHOP 15 16 November 2012

Prof. P.D. Spanos, Houston, USA Prof. L. Taerwe, Gent, Belgium Prof. H. Vrijling, Delft, Netherlands Prof. T. Vrouwenvelder, Delft, Netherlands Prof. B. Westrich, Stuttgart

Acknowledgement We wish to thank the following organisations and companies for their nonfinancial support.

10TH INTERNATIONAL PROBABILISTIC WORKSHOP 15 16 November 2012

Conference programme

14 November 2012: 19:00 Welcome reception in the Commundo Hotel 15 November 2012 1st Session: Theory Chair: C. Moormann th 09:00 Opening of the 10 International Probabilistic Workshop 09:15 Keynote lecturer: I. Elishakoff
Florida Atlantic University, USA

Recent developements in applied mechanics with uncertainties 09:55 W. Betz, I. Papioannou, D. Straub
TU Mnchen, Germany

Quasi meshless discretization of random elds based on the Karhunen-Loeve expansion 10:15 R. Caspeele, J. Criel, L. Taerwe
Ghent University, Belgium

Using Bayesian response surface updating for estimating the covariance function of random fields based on measurements 10:35 10:50 Coffee H. Keitel Assessing the prediction quality of coupled partial models taking into account coupling quality T. Poutanen
Tampere University of Technology, Finland

10:10

Dependent load combination 11:30 D. Vamvatsikos

National Technical University of Athens, Greece

Closed-form expressions for seismic performance assessment employing second order hazard approximations.

10TH INTERNATIONAL PROBABILISTIC WORKSHOP 15 16 November 2012

Conference programme
11:50 T. Vallee, T. Tannert, C.Grunwald
Fraunhofer-Institut, Germany; University of British Columbia, Canada

Seemingly contradictory: influence of stress-reductionmethods on the strength of bonded joints composed of brittle adherends 12:10 Lunch in the Commundo Hotel Chair: D. Proske

2nd Session: Engineering applications 13:30 Keynote lecturer: F. Porzsolt

University Hospital Ulm & University Ulm, Germany

The insurer's and beneficiary's perspectives of risk management - lessons learned from clinical economics 14:10 D. Casali, A. Colios, N. Antoniadis
Cranfield University, United Kingdom

Systematic uncertainty quantification of pipe flow systems 14:30 S. Kessler, C. Gehlen

TU Mnchen, Germany

Probability of detection of potential mapping 14:50 C. McLeod, J. Wium, J. Retief

University of KwaZulu-Natal & University of Stellenbosch, South Africa

Reliability model for cracking in South African reinforced concrete water retaining structures 15:10 Coffee Chair: B. Westrich

3rd Session: Engineering applications 15:25 Keynote lecturer: R. Riebeek

ABN AMRO Bank N.V, The Netherlands

Challenges in modelling in banking: behaviour and usability" 16:05 D. Bach, P. van Gelder
Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands

Resistance factor calibration of drilled shafts for bridge foundations

10TH INTERNATIONAL PROBABILISTIC WORKSHOP 15 16 November 2012

Conference programme
16:25 V. Boros, B. Novk
University of Stuttgart, Germany

Reliability and risk analysis of concrete bridges for hazard scenarios 16:45 M. Akramin, A. Ariffin, M. Kikuchi, S. Abdullah, N. Nikabdullah, M. Shaari
Universiti Kebangsaan, Malaysia; Tokyo University of Science, Japan

Probabilistic analysis based on s-FEM of surface crack growth

17:05

D. Charmpis
University fo Cyprus, Cyprus

Reliability based design optimization of damage- tolerant elastoplastic frames 19:00 Conference Dinner in the Cubus restaurant

16 November 2012 4th Session: Geotechnical engineering & hazards Chair: C. Moormann 09:00 Keynote lecturer: M. Hicks
Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands

Influence of soil heterogeneity on geotechnical performance and uncertainty 09:40 B. Jung, H. Stutz, G. Morgenthal, F. Wudke
Bauhaus-Universitt Weimar, Germany

Uncertainty Analysis of deep foundation models in bridge engineering 10:00 A. Nasekhian, H. F. Schweiger, T. Marcher
Dr. Sauer & Partners Ltd., United Kingdom, Graz University of Technology, Austria, ILF Consulting Engineers, Austria

Random Set against Point Estimate Method A case study in tunnelling 10:20 M. Sttele, M. Brndl, D. Straub
WSL Davos, Switzerland & TU Mnchen, Germany

Warning and alarm systems for natural hazards - a classification and generic system break-down
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10TH INTERNATIONAL PROBABILISTIC WORKSHOP 15 16 November 2012

Conference programme
10:40 Coffee Chair: M. Huber

5th Session: Engineering applications 10:55 V. Bayer

Dynardo, Germany

Random field methods in robustness analysis 11:15 H. Motra, A. Dimmig-Osburg, J. Hildebrand

Bauhaus-Universitt Weimar, Germany

Probabilistic assessment of concrete creep models under repeated loading with correlated and uncorrelated input variables 11:35 I. Skrzypczak
University of Technology Rzeszow, Poland

Fuzzy and statistical conformity criteria for compressive strength according to the EN 206-1 code 11:55 R. Van Coile, R. Caspeele, L. Taerwe
Ghent University, Belgium

Quantifying the structural safety of concrete slabs subjected to the ISO 834 standard fire curve using full-probabilistic FEM 12:15 N. Mohamed, S.Singh
University Kebangsaan, Malaysia

Reliability of a crankshaft by using Markov Chain Model with a probabilistic approach 12:35 M. Holicky, M. Sykora
Czech Technical University, Czech Republic

Probabilistic assessment of existing structures Discussion: 12:55 Possibilities and limitations of probabilistic methods academic playground or enigneering reality? 13:35 Lunch

10TH INTERNATIONAL PROBABILISTIC WORKSHOP 15 16 November 2012

Information to speakers

Conference Location The conference takes places in the Commundo Hotel Stuttgart. The Commundo Hotel is located at the campus of the University of Stuttgart, Universittsstrae 34, 70569 Stuttgart. Registration desk and secretariat The registration for the conference takes place at the conference location from 08:30 on Thursday, 15.11.2012. The conference staff is here to help you during the whole conference, and to assure you have a nice stay in Stuttgart. Please do not hesitate to ask any question or bring froward any problem on your mind. The secretariat is located at the main entrance of the conference location. Conference badges Delegates are kindly requested to wear the conference name badge at all meetings. Proceedings The papers presented at the 10th International Probabilistic Workshop are included in the proceedings of the conference to be published by the Institute of Geotechnical Engineering, University of Stuttgart. The proceedings are distributed upon registration at the conference in each delegates pack. Language The official language of the conference is English. No simultaneous translation is available.

10TH INTERNATIONAL PROBABILISTIC WORKSHOP 15 16 November 2012

Information to speakers

Presentations and disussion of papers Each presentation has been allocated 15 minutes with 5 additional minutes for discussion. Authors may give short bios to the session chair in advance. Pleas try to meet the session chair before the session. Uploading Presentation Data All speakers are kindly asked to bring the data of their presentation on a USB memory stick. The presentation material should be uploaded and checked at latest during the break before your session. Computer and Software In every session room you will nd a notebook with Microsoft Windows 7, Microsoft Ofce 2010 and 2003 as well as Acrobat Reader installed. Please use the PowerPoint 2010 format (*.pptx) for your presentation materials, if possible. You can use your own notebook, if you prefer. Backup Presentation It is recommended that you should bring the presentation material in PDF format as well, for backup, in case there are any problems with your PowerPoint presentatio. Movies in PowerPoint If you embed a movie in PowerPoint you should use wmv format and bring a copy of the movie in a separate le on your USB memory stick. Fonts Use standard fonts only! Please embed the fonts in your PowerPoint presentation!

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10TH INTERNATIONAL PROBABILISTIC WORKSHOP 15 16 November 2012

Information to speakers

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10TH INTERNATIONAL PROBABILISTIC WORKSHOP 15 16 November 2012

Information to speakers
Presenter You can use a wireless presenter with a laser pointer integrated for your presentation. Please have a look at the features of the presenter below.

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10TH INTERNATIONAL PROBABILISTIC WORKSHOP 15 16 November 2012

Maps

Commundo Conference Hotel Stuttgart If you want to book a room at the Commundo Hotel, please indicate "10th International Probabilistic Workshop" and the number "2500 15 733" in order to get one of the reserved rooms. There are limited parking spaces in our underground car park. The traffic lights outside the underground car park indicate whether a parking space is available. If the traffic lights are green, advance to the intercom and report your arrival by giving your name and the event number. The reception desk will then give you access. If the traffic lights are red, please do not drive up to the intercom, as there will be no parking spaces available in the underground car park. Please note the height restrictions for the underground car park. Parking is at your own risk. We do not accept liability for any damage incurred. Public car parking spaces are available at the nearby Pfaffenwaldring. Your GPS coordinates N: 48 44' 43.93" / 48.745535 E: 009 06' 27.32" / 9.10759 Distances by car to the next entrance ramp: 3 km to the main station: 10 km to the airport: 17 km to the city centre: 10 km From all directions Please make sure you stay within the speed limits on the freeway (fixed speed cameras in operation). From the Stuttgarter Kreuz (interchange) take the A 831 in the direction of Stuttgart/Vaihingen and the B 14 in the direction of Stuttgart Zentrum as far as the Universitt exit. Turn left at the first set of lights, then take the second street on the right directly to the Commundo Conference Hotel. From Stuttgart airport (approx. 17 minutes) Take the S 2 (in the direction of Schorndorf) or
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10TH INTERNATIONAL PROBABILISTIC WORKSHOP 15 16 November 2012

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the S 3 (in the direction of Backnang) as far as the Universitt station Leave the station via the Universittszentrum exit. The Commundo Conference Hotel is only a two-minute walk away. Please follow the signs. Commundo Conference Hotels Universittsstrae 34 70569 Stuttgart, Germany Phone: +49 (0) 800 8330 330 Fax: +49 (0) 800 8330 331

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10TH INTERNATIONAL PROBABILISTIC WORKSHOP 15 16 November 2012

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CUBUS Restaurant The conference dinner will take place at 15.11.2012 at 19:00 in the CUBUS restaurant, Kleiner Schloplatz 1, 70173 Stuttgart. The CUBUS restaurant is located in the city center of Stuttgart on the top floor of the museum of modern art in Stuttgart. It is recommended to take the S-Bahn to the city center and get of at Stadtmitte; the travel time from the Commundo Hotel to CUBUS restaurant takes approximately 35 minutes.

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10TH INTERNATIONAL PROBABILISTIC WORKSHOP 15 16 November 2012

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CUBUS restaurant

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Contact information
Web page: http://www.uni-stuttgart.de/igs/igs_verschiedenes/Veranstaltungen/Probabilistic_Workshop Correspondence: Dipl.-Ing. Dipl.-Ing. Maximilian Huber th 10 IPW conference secretary Institute of Geotechnical Engineering, Pfaffenwaldring 35 70 569 Stuttgart Germany Phone: +43 / 711 / 685 - 63 778 Email: maximilian.huber@igs.uni-stuttgart.de