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應用機率與統計 Applied probability and statistics
應用機率與統計 Applied probability and statistics
tw
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1.
2.
Gamma ( )
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1-1
1-2
1-3
17
1-4
25
1-5
36
57
2-1
58
2-2
64
2-3
68
2-4
77
2-5
82
2-6
87
100
101
3-1
102
3-2
103
3-3
112
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3-4
120
3-5
126
3-6
129
3-7
135
146
147
4-1
148
4-2
156
4-3
159
4-4
168
4-5
176
4-6
183
4-7
189
4-8
194
207
5-1
208
5-2
215
5-3
220
5-4
232
5-5
235
5-6
239
Leibniz
251
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253
6-1
254
6-2
260
6-3 Gamma
272
6-4
281
294
6-6
298
310
CDF
311
312
319
7-1
320
7-2
331
7-3
336
7-4
346
7-5
353
7-6
377
7-7
385
405
409
8-1
410
8-2
415
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8-3
417
433
9-1
434
9-2
439
9-3
443
9-4
447
10
455
10-1
456
10-2
459
10-3
466
10-4
472
10-5 Bayes
11
473
485
11-1
486
11-2
488
11-3
490
11-4
495
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1-1
1-2
1-3
1-4
1-5
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1-1
SetElement
Empty set
Finite set
Infinite set
Countable set
Uncountable set
A A
A A
A means "x is
x
an element of set A"
A
B means "
B = {x|x
IntersectionA
A or x
B = {x|x
A and x
BA
Disjoint A
B = {x|x
A and x
B}
B}
A}
B}
B = AB disjoint
Mutually exclusive Ai
Aj = i
j {A1, A2,
n
j=1
A1, x
A2, x
An"
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n
j=1
A1 x
A2 x
An"
Sc =
1-1
1-1
S = Sj Sj mutually exclusive
j
A=
(A
Sj )
1-1
Sj Mutually exclusive
1-2Demorgan's law
(A
B)c = Ac
Bc
(A
B)c = Ac
Bc
1-2
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B)c x
(A
Ac and x
Bc x
B x
Ac
A and x
Bc
Ac
Bc x
(A
B) x
Ac and x
(A
Bc x
A and x
B)c
(AB) c
A x
Ac x
Bc
Ac
Bc
Ac x
A x
AB
(AB)c
B
B
AB A
Ac
BAcBc
Bc
Venn diagram
1-3 B
S AB = B
1-3
1-4 BC
B
BC = B
BC = S
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1-4
1-2
B = (A
B)
B)(Ac
(A
(Ac
B)
B)
1-3Distributed law
(B
C) = (A
B)
(A
C)
(B
C) = (A
B)
(A
C)
(A
B)
C=A
(B
C)
(A
B)
C=A
(B
C)
Venn diagram
Venn diagram
1-2
(A
B)
(A
C)
1-4
k i ni
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n1 n2 nk =
ni
i=1
1-5 k
(i
1) i
ni n1 n2
nk
1-5
1-5
N (N
1) (N
n + 1) =
N!
= PNn
n!
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i j
N
N!
= CnN =
n! N n !
n
N k1 k2
m km N
N
N!
=
; N = k1 + + km
k1 !km !
k1 , k2 , km
1 N
P
n n
n! n n!
1
abcdg7
abc
abc
abc 2
a b c
ab cd
a b c b
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5! 3!
5
4!
3!(4! P53 )
3
4! C25 2! 3!
Aa
6!
Bb
6!
Cc
6!
ABC = A
C = 7!
3 6! + 3 5!
4!
aaabbcd
aabbccdd
Aaaa
Bbb
AB = A
(AB) =
4! 5
C
2! 3
3!C34
Aaa
Bbb
Ccc
Ddd
ABCD = A
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8!
2! 4
4
7!
+
2! 3 2
6!
2! 3
4
3
4
5!
+
4!
2!
4
3ABCD
A B
4
7!
7!
2
7
4!
(2!)4
4
8!
7!
6! 6
C (2!) A =
2
6 2
8
7
6!
8!
7!
2+
(2!)2
AB = A B =
2
8
7
6
6!
6 4 2A B 6 C 4
D 2
4!
4!
4
4!
2
4
4!
2
4
5!
4!
5
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1-6
n
n
n!
=
=
k!
n
k!
k
n k
n
n 1
n 1
=
+
k
k
k 1
Crn + m =
r
k=0
Ckn Crm
1
1
+
= 21
0
1
2
2
2
+
+
= 22
0
1
2
3
3
3
3
+
+
+
= 23
0
1
2
3
4
4
4
4
4
+
+
+
+
= 24
0
1
2
3
4
n k (n
k) k (n
k)
n (n
1)
+2
13
6
13
7
13
5
13
6
13
6
13
7
14
6
14
7
15
7
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92
C22 = C33
C33 + C23 = C34
C34 + C24 = C35
C325 + C225 = C326 = 2600
6 In how many ways can we give 6 different gifts to 4 students and
each of them get at least one gift.
92
1 C14
2 C24(26
2)
1
3
1-7
(a + b)N =
x=0
ax bN
aaa bbb = ax bN
x
x
x
N x
axbN
(N
x)
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1-82N =
N
N
N
+
+
0
1
N
N
N
2N
82
f (x) = (1 + x)N =
xN
0
1
N
N
N
N N
N(1 + x)N 1 =
+2
x++N
x
1
2
N
N
N
N
N2N 1 =
+2
++N
1
2
N
+
x +
n
n
n
+ ( 1)n
=0
0
1
n
f (1) + f ( 1) 2n = 2 (C0n + C2n + ) C0n + C2n + = 2n
f (1)
f ( 1)
1
1
1-9
(a + b + c) N =
N N x
axbycN x y
x, y
(a + b + c)N = (a + b + c)(a + b + c)(a + b + c)
x=0 y=0
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by cz N (a + b + c) x a(N
y b N
N
x
y
x)
y = z c ax by cz
N!
N x!
x! N x ! y! N x y !
N
N!
=
=
x! y! z!
x, y
(x + y + z) 9 x2 y3 z4
9 2 3 4
2 500 3 4 9
9!
2! 3! 4!
1-10
N k1 k2 ... N
kN N m
HmN = CmN + m
N = 5m = 6
XOOXOXXOOXOX
"O" denotes the numbersX
2 1 0
2 1 X
OX
CmN + m
= C65 + 6
HmN
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m N
CmN + m
x + y + z = 6
m = 6N = 3
CmN + m
= C68 = C28 = 28
a1 + a2 + a3 + a4 + a5 = 8; a1
0, a5
0, a2
0, a3
0, a4
8 5
8+5 1
12
12
=
=
8
8
4
12
4
100000
1-11n
k, m
m+n
n m
n m
n m
=
+
+
k
0 k
1 k 1
k 0
n+m
n m
n m
Hk
= H0 Hk + H1 Hk 1 + + Hkn H0m
(n + m) n m k
n m
n m k
0 k
n m
n 1 m k 1
1 k 1
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n k m
n m
k 0
5 3
35
53
10 1-6 A D
B
D
C
1-6
C B
4 3
7!
4! 3!
3!
4!
2! 2! 2! 1!
5!
C
1! 4!
C
5!
7!
4! 3! 1! 4!
n (B
C) = n (B) + n (C)
n (B
C) =
4! 3!
5!
+
1! 4! 2! 2! 2! 1!
3!
2! 1!
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11
x1 + + xm = n
x1 + + xm = n
x1 + + xm = n k xi 0
1-10 x1 + x2 + x3 = 4
XXXOOOOX
x1 = 0x2 = 0x3 = 4
C34 + 31
= C26
Cmn + m1
yi = xi
= Cmn + m1
y1 + y2 + + ym = n
mn
yi xi
Cmn
m+m
1
= Cmn
1
1
= Cnn
1
m
xi k 0 m
CkmCmn
1
k
xi
Let yi = xi + 5 0
10 for all 1
yi
xi
4.
99
4, then, y1 + y2 + y3 + y4 = 39.
yi
15, then it is
equivalent to finding
n (E1 E2 E3 E4 ) = n (S) n (E1 E2 E3 E4 )
39 + 4 1
23 + 4 1
4 7+4 1
=
4
+
39
23
2
7
13If a fair die is rolled 12 times, what is the probability that the sum
of the rolls is 30?
99
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1 0
yi
xi
6 for all 1
12.
5, y1 + + y12 = 18.
yi
5, then it is
equivalent to finding
n (E1 E2 E12 ) = n s n (E1 E2 E12 )
18 + 12 1
12 + 12 1
12 6 + 12 1
=
12
+
18
12
2
6
12 0 + 12 1
3
0
18 + 12 1
12 + 12
12
18
12
12 6 + 12
12
12 0 + 12
3
1-3
Sample space
Random ExperimentOutcomes S
S = {boy, girl}
S = {}
S = { , +}
S 1-1
Universal set Element
S
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Discrete
sample space
Continuous sample space
Event
Any subset of the sample space
E event E
P (E) E S
P (E) E S
14 6 5 2
E
F
P (E), P (F)
Sample Space
6 5
= 30
1 1
6
= 15
F
2
6
30
=
P E =
55 11
3
15
=
P (F) =
55 11
S S = ( , )
E
11
= 55
2
E 05 V E = (0, 5)
F 210 V F = (2, 10)
E
E
S
S
F = (2, 5)
F = (0, 10)
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E
F
E
F = SE c = FF c = E
F=
E and F Disjoint
Event Space
Mutually exclusive set of events
Probability Measure, P[.]
P[.] sample space event
Sample space, Event, Probability measure
PE
Event E [0, 1]
P (S) = 1
with probability 1, the outcome will be a member of the Sample
space
n
i=1
i=1
P E =1
P (E c
P (E
P Ec
F) = P F
P (E
F) = P E + P F
S = E
F)
P (E
F)
E c E E c mutually exclusive
P S = P (E
P (E) = 1
E c) = P E + P (E c) = 1
P (E c)
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F = (EF)
(E cF) EF E cF
P EF
F=E
F) = P (E
(E c
(E c
F) E E cF
F))
= P (E) + P (E cF)
= P (E) + P (F)
P (EF)
15Among 33 students in a class 17 of them earned A's on the midterm exam, 14 earned A's on the final exam, and 11 did not earn
A's on either examination. What is the probability that a randomly
selected student from this class earned an A on both exams?
100
P AB = P A + P B P (A B)
11
17 14
+
1
=
33 33
33
16Drop 4 balls into 3 boxes randomly. What is the probability that
no box is empty?
34
24 2
1
4
=
9
34
4
C 3!
2 4
3
3
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. .
, 2012.11
.-
ISBN 978-957-11-3882-1
1. 2.
319.1
101020379
5BG1
106 3 3 9 4
(02)2705-5066(02)2706-6100
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