Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Godrej Consumer Products: Performance Highlights
Godrej Consumer Products: Performance Highlights
November 8, 2012
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
`702 -
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code FMCG 23,903 1,143 0.3 745/370 44,127 1 18,846 5,739 GOCP.BO GCPL@IN
Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL), in its 2QFY2013 results, reported an impressive top-line growth of 34.5% yoy to `1,595cr. The organic business net sales growth came strongly at 24%. The Indian subcontinent business registered a growth of 19% yoy on account of strong growth across categories. The international business registered an organic growth of 32%, aided by an impressive performance by Indonesia business (Megasari) which grew by 37% yoy as well as favourable foreign exchange translation impact. Key highlights of the quarter: On the domestic front both personal wash and home care segments posted healthy growth of 24% yoy (volume growth of 6%) and 20% (1.5x category) respectively. The hair colour business grew by 10% yoy. The companys focus on innovation continues and during 2QFY2013 it relaunched the Cinthol range of products (comprising soaps, deo sprays, talks and shower gels) with an objective to connect with the young population. In early October it launched the easy to use Godrej Expert Rich Creme hair colour. On the profitability front, despite a 24bp expansion in the gross margin (aided by fall in vegetable oil prices) GCPL reported a 214bp yoy decline in OPM to 15.3% impacted by higher staff costs, advertising costs and other expenses. Employee costs rose due to Cosmetica and Darling acquisitions, which have higher employee cost component. The recurring PAT for the quarter grew by 24.8% yoy to `159cr. Outlook and valuation: At the current market price, the stock is trading at 25.4x FY2014E consolidated earnings. After valuing the companys various international subsidiaries and giving effect to their varied geographic presence, we believe the current implied valuation of the domestic business is at fair levels. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 63.8 1.2 27.4 7.6
3m 7.1 13.8
FY2011 3,643 78.5 482 41.8 17.6 14.2 49.6 13.2 38.4 25.0 7.1 40.1
FY2012 4,851 33.2 547 13.6 17.7 16.1 43.7 8.5 33.1 18.7 5.2 29.2
FY2013E 6,355 31.0 776 41.9 18.4 22.8 30.8 7.0 26.4 21.9 3.9 21.5
FY2014E 7,548 18.8 940 21.1 18.6 27.6 25.4 5.8 26.1 24.0 3.3 17.6
V Srinivasan
022-39357800 Ext: 6831 v.srinivasan@angelbroking.com
2QFY13 1,595 768 48.1 133 8.4 155 9.7 295 18.5 1,351 244 15.3 20 21 19 8 215 215 13.5 48 22 168 10.5 8 159 34 4.7
2QFY12 1,186 573 48.4 81 6.9 111 9.4 213 18.0 979 207 17.4 15 16 16 17 174 174 14.7 43 25 131 11.0 3 128 32 3.9
% yoy 34.5 33.8 63.7 39.9 38.4 38.0 18.0 30.1 29.6 21.6 (56.1) 23.6 23.6
1QFY13 1,389 664 47.8 129 9.3 153 11.0 244 17.6 1,190 199 14.3 16 20 18 18 163 163 11.7 11 7
% qoq 14.9 15.6 3.4 1.4 21.1 13.6 22.7 21.8 3.8 7.0 (57.0) 32.0 32.0
1HFY2013 2,984 1,432 48.0 262 8.8 308 10.3 564 18.9 2,566 418 14.0 36 41 38 25 353 353 11.8 59 17
1HFY2012 2,184 1,057 48.4 161 7.4 228 10.4 403 18.4 1,849 334 15.3 26 32 29 15 291 (175) 466 21.3 110 24 531 24.3 3 177 32 5.5
28.0
152 10.9 21
10.5
294 9.9 30
24.8 18.7
130 34 3.8
22.2 22.2
265 34 7.8
49.5 42.2
November 8, 2012
November 8, 2012
60.0
Despite a 24bp expansion in the gross margin (aided by fall in vegetable oil prices) GCPL reported a 214bp yoy decline in OPM to 15.3% impacted by higher staff costs, advertising costs and other expenses. Employee costs rose due to Cosmetica and Darling acquisitions, which have higher employee cost component, which impacted margins both in the respective regions of LATAM and Africa, as well as the consolidated OPM.
(%)
14.3
Gross Margin
continuous marketing investments, new product launches and distribution expansion. The EBITDA margin fell by 40bp and came in at 19%. The company recently launched HIT one push aerosol; HIT magic paper continues to perform well. Africa: Sales from the African region recorded a robust growth of 152% yoy and stood at `163cr aided by distribution expansion and consolidation of the Darling group. The EBIDTA margin stood at 16.0%. Renew doubled its market share to become the third largest brand by volume in 18 months time. The company launched household insecticides in Nigeria Europe: The European business witnessed sales growth of 29%, with sales at `68cr and EBITDA margin at 9%. In the UK market GCPL launched Touch of Silver range of shampoo and conditioners.
Investment rationale
Acquisitions to drive a 31.0% CAGR in earnings over FY201214E: GCPLs recent acquisitions have been in line with its 3X3 strategy and are expected to enable the company to spread its footprint and grow inorganically. GCPLs Indonesian subsidiary Megasari (acquired in April 2010) has consistently posted healthy financial performance. The acquisition of Darling Group, the market leader in hair extension products in the African continent, and Chile based Cosmetica Nacional will continue to drive strong growth for the company in Africa and LatAm. The integration of Darling group is proceeding smoothly and the second phase of consolidation is expected to take place in 3QFY2013. The management has constantly reiterated that all recent international acquisitions have been EPS-accretive. Over FY201214E, we expect GCPL to post a 31.0% CAGR in earnings, aided by consolidation of the recent acquisitions. Synergistic benefits and cross-pollination opportunities: We believe there are significant synergistic benefits in terms of distribution and supply-chain networks through the integration of Godrej Household Products Ltd (GHPL), which are likely to get reflected in the companys performance going ahead. Moreover, GHPLs strong presence in Southern India complements GCPLs strong presence in Northern India extremely well, giving GCPL a balanced presence.
November 8, 2012
CMP (`) 4,110 470 1,278 128 702 3,056 534 290 206 4,862 160
TP (`) 584 -
Upside (%) 24 -) -
P/E (x) FY13E 33.2 22.7 35.1 28.7 30.8 27.4 36.3 31.1 33.3 42.4 24.2 FY14E 28.1 18.5 30.1 24.5 25.4 23.2 31.3 26.5 26.4 34.8 20.4
EV/Sales (x) FY13E 3.4 0.9 5.3 3.7 3.9 3.7 4.4 7.3 2.7 5.4 1.3 FY14E 2.8 0.7 4.7 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.8 6.3 2.2 4.5 1.1
RoE (%) FY13E 37.4 43.1 101.9 43.2 26.4 36.3 70.9 35.8 25.4 71.2 8.2 FY14E 35.3 41.9 98.5 41.4 26.1 34.0 59.8 35.3 22.6 60.3 9.5
CAGR # Sales 17.0 17.4 15.2 15.9 24.7 16.8 15.5 17.2 18.6 16.5 9.7 PAT 19.2 27.4 13.8 18.9 31.1 24.9 19.7 17.7 25.4 15.0 16.6
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Denotes CAGR for FY2012-14E;*December year ending
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: Blue line indicates 5-year average
November 8, 2012
Company background
GCPL is a leading FMCG company in the household and personal care products category, with brands such as Good Knight, HIT, Cinthol, Godrej No.1 and Expert. The company has built a foothold in Africa, Latin America, Indonesia and UK through several acquisitions. Currently, ~40% of the company's revenue comes from its international business.
November 8, 2012
November 8, 2012
November 8, 2012
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 4.9 43.9 15.8 76.5 6 5.7 47.3 20.6 95.2 9 5.5 44.0 38.5 72.0 42 6.7 59.0 35.6 86.9 30 6.5 58.9 36.5 78.0 35 6.5 58.9 36.5 74.1 35 30.8 109.0 46.6 41.5 166.7 44.5 25.0 121.5 38.4 18.7 113.5 33.1 21.9 123.9 26.4 24.0 109.8 26.1 6.7 5.1 7.5 4.0 22.2 11.0 10.0 11.8 4.1 31.0 14.9 14.2 16.4 5.0 53.3 16.1 16.1 18.7 4.6 82.7 22.8 22.8 26.1 5.0 99.7 27.6 27.6 31.3 5.0 121.4 138.5 94.1 31.6 0.6 17.1 114.9 27.9 70.4 59.6 22.7 0.6 11.6 58.0 23.7 49.6 42.8 13.2 0.7 7.1 40.1 6.9 43.7 37.6 8.5 0.7 5.2 29.2 5.3 30.8 26.9 7.0 0.7 3.9 21.5 4.8 25.4 22.4 5.8 0.7 3.3 17.6 4.3 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
November 8, 2012
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
GCPL No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
November 8, 2012
11