Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Page Industries: Upgrade To Accumulate'
Page Industries: Upgrade To Accumulate'
November 9, 2012
Page Industries
Upgrade to Accumulate
Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales Operating profit OPM (%) Adj. PAT
2QFY13 220 44 20.0 31 2QFY12 181 36 19.7 25 % chg. (yoy) 21.9 23.7 30 bp 21.4 1QFY12 218 47 21.4 33 % chg. (qoq) 0.9 (5.8) (142)bp (6.1)
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
`3,356 `3,602
12 Months
Textile 3,744 59 0.4 3,350 / 2,275 1,803 10 18,684 5,686 PAGE.BO PAG IN
For 2QFY2013, Page Industries (Page) reported numbers in line with our expectations on all fronts. The company's top-line grew by 21.9% yoy to `220cr from `181cr in the same quarter last year, in-line with our estimate of `215cr for the quarter. The EBITDA margin for the quarter expanded marginally by 30bp yoy and came in at 20.0%, against our estimate of 20.2%. Consequently, the company reported a profit of `31cr, 21.4% higher yoy from `25cr in 2QFY2012, in line with our estimate of `30cr. Huge market size and strong brand image to drive growth: According to industry reports, the Indian innerwear industry stood at `14,000cr (in FY2011) and is expected to grow at CAGR of 13.2% to `43,700 by FY2020. The innerwear market in India is underpenetrated with per capita spend significantly lower than other Asian peers which provides huge opportunity to the company. With a market share of 21% in mens segment and 12% in womens segment, we expect Page to use the opportunity and report a revenue CAGR of 22.3% to `1,023cr in FY2014E. This is also backed by the strong brand image and pan India distribution channel consisting of 400 distributors, 72 Exclusive JOCKEY outlets and ~23,000 retail outlets across 1,200 cities. Outlook and valuation: Expecting the companys revenue and profit to grow at a CAGR of 22.3% and 28.5% FY2012-14E over to `1,023cr and `149cr respectively in FY2014E and considering its robust RoE profile, we have assigned a P/E multiple of 27x for its FY2014E earnings. The stock is currently trading at a PE of 25.2x FY2014E earnings. We upgrade the stock to Accumulate with a target price of `3,602, valuing the stock at 27x FY2014E earnings.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 58.2 17.1 19.9 4.9
3m 7.1 9.5
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg FDEPS (`) EBITDA margin (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/BV (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2010
339 33.3 40 25.2 19.4 35.5 94.5 37.8 42.6 40.1 11.2 57.7
FY2011
492 44.8 59 47.9 18.5 52.5 63.9 30.2 52.6 39.3 7.8 42.3
FY2012
683 39.0 90 53.9 19.5 80.8 41.5 22.6 62.3 47.2 5.6 28.5
FY2013E
836 22.3 118 30.6 20.2 105.6 31.8 16.2 59.3 53.1 4.5 22.5
FY2014E
1,023 22.4 149 26.4 20.6 133.4 25.2 11.4 53.2 52.7 3.7 17.9
Tejashwini Kumari
022-39357800 Ext: 6856 tejashwini.kumari@angelbroking.com
2QFY13
220 105 47.6 34 15.6 37 16.8 176 44 20.0 2 3 5 45 20.3 14 31.1 31 31 14.0
2QFY12 181 90 49.7 29 16.0 26 14.6 145 36 19.7 1 3 6 38 20.8 12 32.5 25 25 14.0
% chg. (yoy) 21.9 16.8 18.8 40.2 21.4 23.7 30 bp 42.5 7.8 (10.9) 19.1 14.2 21.4 21.4
1QFY13 218 109 50.1 33 15.1 29 13.4 171 47 21.4 2 3 7 49 22.5 16 33.4 33 33 15.0
% chg. (qoq) 0.9 (4.0) 4.1 26.5 2.7 (5.8) (142)bp (8.5) 4.9 (27.1) (9.2) (15.4) (6.1) (6.1)
HY2013
438 214 48.9 67 15.4 66 15.1 347 91 20.7 3 5 12 94 21.4 30 30.3 64 64 14.5
HY2012
357 174 48.6 56 15.8 48 13.4 278 79 22.2 3 5 10 81 22.6 28 34.4 53 53 14.9
% chg
22.7 23.4 19.2 38.1 25.1 15 (147)bp 9.1 9.8 22.6 16.1 8.9 19.8 19.8
2QFY13
220 44 20.0 31
Angel est.
215 43 20.2 30
% diff
2.5 1.5 (20)bp 2.3
November 9, 2012
38.5
(%)
(` cr)
23.6
100 50 0
21.9 20
126
134
111
176
181
172
154
218
220
0
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
13%
The raw material cost as a percent of net sales decreased by 209bp yoy from 49.7% to 47.6%, however there was an equivalent increase in the other expense. Consequently, the EBITDA margin for the quarter expanded marginally by 29.8bp yoy and came in at 20.0%, against our estimate of 20.2%. The company reported a profit of `31cr, 21.4% higher yoy from `25cr in 2QFY2012, in line with our estimate of `30cr. Exhibit 5: Margin improved marginally on yoy basis
50 40 30 20 10 20.5 20.7 15.4 EBITDA (LHS) 24.7 19.7 17.2 15.7 EBITDA Margin (RHS) 21.4 20.0 30 25 20
33
31
100 80 60 40 20 0
(` cr)
(%)
(`cr)
10
15 10
26
28
17
44
36
30
24
47
44
16
16
13
28
25
20
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
17
1QFY13
November 9, 2012
2QFY13
(%)
15
20
Segmental performance
Exhibit 7: Men segment
180 160 Volume yoy growth (%) 21.1 17.4 14.6 11.5 8.9 15 10 5 0 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 22.9 25 20
(piece in lakh)
(piece in lakh)
35 30 25 20 15 10 12.4
24.9
129
135
123
108
156
147
32
29
31
25
39
35
20 0
5 0
5 0
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
(piece in lakh)
5 4 3 2
(piece in lakh)
44.3
30 25 20 15 10
28
28
29
28
35
35
5 0
November 9, 2012
25%
50%
LBO
EBO
MBO
Source: Company
November 9, 2012
Financials
Exhibit 12: Key assumptions
FY2013E Volume growth (%) Realization growth (%) Blended MRP/piece
Source: Angel Research
18.9 3.0 95
% chg FY2013E
0.0 3.6
FY2014E
997 20.7 138
FY2014E
1,023 20.7 149
FY2014E
2.6 7.9
November 9, 2012
( ` cr)
(` cr)
(%)
389
30 20
461
551
259 204 159 110 53 83 39 FY2012 14 107 48 16 FY2014E 135 59 18
292
25
11
FY2013E
(` cr)
(` cr)
(%)
80 60 40
17
133
169
211
51
66
91
20 15 0
November 9, 2012
(%)
100
12.4
Outlook and valuation: Considering the companys dominant presence in a fastgrowing market, strong brand recall, consistent financial performance and high dividend payout, we expect Page Industries to get re-rated. Expecting the companys revenue and profit to grow at a CAGR of 22.3% and 28.5% FY201214E over to `1,023cr and `149cr respectively in FY2014E and considering its robust RoE profile, we have assigned a P/E multiple of 27x for its FY2014E earnings. The stock is currently trading at a PE of 25.2x FY2014E earnings. We upgrade the stock to Accumulate with a target price of `3,602, valuing the stock at 27x FY2014E earnings. Exhibit 19: One-year forward P/E band
4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
(`)
Dec-09
Mar-11
Aug-11
Apr-08
Jul-09
Feb-09
Oct-10
May-10
Price (`)
Source: Company, Angel Research
15x
20x
25x
30x
Concerns
Competition from other players: An aggressive push by the existing branded, domestic and global players could affect the companys performance. However, considering that a majority of the market remains untapped and is growing at a fast pace, we believe there is enough room for growth. Fluctuations in raw-material prices: Any fluctuation in raw-material prices,
especially cotton, can lead to margin compression, as the company may not be able to pass on the entire increase to the end-user.
November 9, 2012
Nov-12
Sep-08
Jan-12
Jun-12
Company background
Page is the exclusive licensee of Jockey International Inc. (USA) for manufacture and distribution of the JOCKEY brand innerwear/leisurewear for men and women in India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and UAE. Page Industries is also the exclusive licensee of Speedo International Ltd for the manufacture, marketing and distribution of the Speedo brand in India. As of end July 2012, the companys workforce numbered 13,000 people with manufacturing operations spread over ten plants in Bangalore. Page has a strong pan India distribution channel across 1,200 cities, with 400 distributors, 72 Exclusive JOCKEY outlets and ~23,000 retail outlets. Speedo brand is also available in 410 stores including large format stores in 12 cities and two Speedo exclusive brand outlets located in Delhi and Bangalore.
November 9, 2012
FY2010
339 339 33.3 154 30.4 3 30.9 58 35.4 59 44.7 274 66 29.1 19.4 9 57 30.2 16.7 3 5 1.4 54 32.7 59 19 32.3 40 0 40 25.2 11.7 35.5 35.5 25.2
FY2011
492 492 44.8 225 45.7 4 59.0 90 54.3 82 39.3 400 91 38.7 18.5 10 81 43.3 16.5 5 12 2.5 76 41.5 88 29 33.1 59 0 59 47.9 11.9 52.5 52.5 47.9
FY2012
683 683 39.0 329 46.5 5 20.9 114 26.9 102 24.6 550 133 46.2 19.5 11 123 50.8 17.9 7 18 2.7 116 52.4 134 44 32.8 90 0 90 53.9 13.2 80.8 80.8 53.9
FY2013E
836 836 22.3 401 21.8 8 58.5 134 17.4 124 21.6 667 169 26.6 20.2 13 155 26.7 18.6 6 23 2.8 149 28.7 173 55 31.8 118 0 118 30.6 14.1 105.6 105.6 30.6
FY2014E
1,023 1,023 22.4 486 21.3 10 22.4 164 22.4 151 22.4 812 211 25.0 20.6 16 195 25.6 19.1 5 29 2.8 190 27.0 218 69 31.8 149 0 149 26.4 14.6 133.4 133.4 26.4
November 9, 2012
10
Balance sheet
Y/E Mar. (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Reserves& Surplus Shareholders Funds Total Loans Other Long Term Liabilities Long Term Provisions Deferred Tax (Net) Total liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Long Term Loans and advances Other Non-current asset Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Inventory Debtors Other current assets Current liabilities Net Current Assets Misc. Exp. not written off Total Assets
101 24 78 5 3 134 3 16 95 20 64 70 156 126 33 93 1 3 20 2 219 3 26 165 26 77 143 262 150 43 107 3 2 27 1 231 3 12 173 44 108 123 263 186 56 130 3 2 33 1 285 9 15 206 55 124 161 329 231 72 159 3 2 40 1 367 19 26 255 67 151 216 421 11 88 99 55 2 156 11 113 124 114 19 2 3 262 11 155 166 64 28 2 4 263 11 220 232 58 33 2 5 329 11 317 328 52 33 2 5 421
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013E
FY2014E
November 9, 2012
11
FY2010
59 9 (19) (19) 0 30 (25) 2 1 (21) 13 (27) (2) (16) (7) 10 3
FY2011
88 10 (73) (29) 4 (0) (21) 0 (22) 16 (27) 60 (34) 1 27 (0) 3 3
FY2012
134 11 20 (44) 2 123 (26) 1 (6) 5 (25) (50) (48) 1 (97) 1 3 3
FY2013E
173 13 (31) (55) (23) 77 (36) (6) 30 (12) (6) (52) (58) 6 3 9
FY2014E
218 16 (45) (69) (29) 91 (45) (7) 29 (23) (6) (52) (58) 10 9 19
November 9, 2012
12
Key ratios
Y/E Mar. Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV EV/Net sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset TO (Gross Block) Inventory / Net sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Int. Coverage (EBIT/ Int.) 0.5 0.7 19.1 0.9 1.2 15.6 0.4 0.4 18.4 0.2 0.3 25.6 0.1 0.1 35.8 4.0 87 20 97 62 4.3 96 17 64 77 4.9 90 19 61 70 5.0 83 24 68 59 4.9 82 24 68 62 40.1 46.4 42.6 39.3 41.0 52.6 47.2 48.5 62.3 53.1 55.1 59.3 52.7 55.5 53.2 16.7 0.7 2.8 31.4 4.2 0.5 44.9 16.5 0.7 2.5 27.4 4.1 0.9 47.9 17.9 0.7 2.7 32.6 5.0 0.4 42.4 18.6 0.7 3.0 37.6 6.8 0.2 43.8 19.1 0.7 2.9 37.8 6.8 0.1 40.7 35.5 35.5 43.6 21.0 88.8 52.5 52.5 61.3 26.0 111.0 80.8 80.8 90.4 37.0 148.6 105.6 105.6 117.6 40.0 207.6 133.4 133.4 147.7 40.0 294.4 94.5 77.0 37.8 11.2 57.7 24.7 63.9 54.7 30.2 7.8 42.3 14.8 41.5 37.1 22.6 5.6 28.5 14.6 31.8 28.5 16.2 4.5 22.5 11.7 25.2 22.7 11.4 3.7 17.9 9.1
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013E
FY2014E
November 9, 2012
13
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Page Industries No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
November 9, 2012
14