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Abbott India: Performance Highlights
Abbott India: Performance Highlights
Abbott India: Performance Highlights
November 9, 2012
Abbott India
Performance Highlights
Y/E December (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adjusted PAT 3QCY2012 3QCY2011 % chg (yoy) 417 55 13.2 38 406 63 15.6 44 2.6 (13.0) (237) (12.1) 2QCY2012 % chg (qoq) 412 44 10.8 30 1.2 23.9 242 29.8
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others Abs. (%) Sensex ABBOTINDIA 3m (1.2) 1yr 75.0 5.3 2.3 17.5 3yr 78.1 Pharmaceuticals 3,264 0.4 176 / 292 1,667 10 16,155 4,866 ABOT.BO BOOT IN
`1,460 `1,590
12 Months
For 3QCY2012, Abbott India Ltd. (AIL) reported a marginal top line growth of 2.6% yoy to `417cr from `406cr in 3QCY2011. EBITDA margin contracted by 237bp yoy to 13.2% from 15.6% in 3QCY2011 on account of higher raw material cost and employee expenses; however on a sequential basis EBITDA margin expanded by 242bp owing to qoq decline in other expenses. Consequently, net profit grew by 29.8% sequentially but declined by 12.1% yoy to `38cr during the quarter. Synergy with SPIL and focus on advertisement &employee expenses to aid growth: AILs merger with Solvay Pharma (SPIL) in CY2011, has provided AIL a widened product portfolio, thus giving it access to untapped therapeutic segments. In addition, the companys continuing focus on advertisement and employee cost, which witnessed a CAGR of 45.7% and 34.7%, respectively, over CY2006-11, would aid in revenue growth going forward. Outlook and valuation: We expect AIL to post a 12.6% CAGR in revenue to `1,833cr over CY2011-13E. While EBITDA margin is expected to expand by 183bp from 10.0% in CY2011 to 11.8% in CY2013E resulting from reduced expenses post amalgamation due to complimentary nature of businesses of the merged entities (AIL and SPIL). Hence, we expect the companys net profit to witness a 12.5% CAGR over CY2011-13E to `152cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at a PE of 21.4x its CY2013E earnings and EV/sales of 1.5x for CY2013E. Considering higher valuations, we recommend a Accumulate rating on the stock.
(4.3) (15.8)
12.2 247.5
Key financials
Y/E December (` cr) Net Sales % chg Net Profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoIC (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
CY2010 990 30.1 61 (21.4) 7.0 44.6 53.5 10.7 21.2 54.4 3.1 44.3
CY2011 1,446 46.0 120 97.2 10.0 56.7 27.1 6.0 28.3 63.7 2.1 20.9
CY2012E 1,602 10.8 116 (3.5) 10.4 54.7 28.1 5.3 20.0 52.1 1.8 17.4
CY2013E 1,833 14.4 152 31.2 11.8 71.7 21.4 4.5 22.7 69.5 1.5 13.0
Shareen Batatawala
+91- 22- 3935 7800 Ext: 6849 shareen.batatawala@angelbroking.com
3QCY12 412 237 57.5 53 12.9 77 18.8 367 44 10.8 0 4 5.7 46 11.2 17 36.1 30 30 7.2
3QCY11 358 206 57.6 44 12.2 82 22.9 332 26 7.3 0 3 5.3 28 7.9 11 39.3 17 17 4.8
yoy chg (%) 14.9 14.7 21.1 (5.7) 10.5 70.6 353bp 23.1 7.0 64.0 50.7 72.6 72.6
2QCY12 376 222 59.1 49 13.1 75 19.9 347 29 7.8 0 6 5.3 29 7.6 12 41.9 17 (10) 27 4.4
qoq chg (%) 9.5 6.6 7.4 3.3 6.0 51.6 300bp (33.3) 7.2 60.9 38.7 76.9 9.0
1HCY12 788 474 60.1 103 13.0 152 19.3 729 59 7.5 0 10 11 60 7.7 29 47.6 32 (10) 42 4.0
1HCY11 601 361 60.1 73 12.1 132 22.0 566 35 5.8 0 6 8 37 6.2 14 38.4 23 23 3.8
% chg 31.1 31.2 41.2 15.3 28.7 70.4 173bp 71.4 30.9 12.6 100.1 37.2 82.3
November 9, 2012
Investment rationale
Synergies with SPIL to improve the business model
Expanded Product portfolio to drive revenue
Post merger of AIL with SPIL, AIL has gained leadership position in the gastroenterology segment with addition of Duphalac, Creon and Udiliv from SPIL to its existing portfolio of Digene, Cremaffin and Ganaton. In addition, the company got access to the womens health segment with products such as Duphaston, Duvadilan, Pro-9, Life and B-crip post-merger. Moreover, AILs CNS portfolio strengthened with the addition of SPILs Vertin, a market leader in the vertigo segment in India. These additional products coupled with the existing pharmaceutical brands such as Digene, Cremaffin, Brufen, Thyronorm, Zolfresh and Pediasure would be the revenue drivers for the company.
70 66 62 58.7 57.5
1,057
(` cr)
150 100
157
168
158
209
229
234
222
237
243
50 0
400
455 504 647 848 936
58 56.1 54 50
200 0
3QCY10
4QCY10
1QCY11
2QCY11
3QCY11
4QCY11
1QCY12
2QCY12
3QCY12
CY2008
CY2009
CY2010
CY2011
CY2012E
CY2013E
Source: Company, Angel Research (post 2QCY2011 numbers include merger of SPIL)
November 9, 2012
(%)
600
Financials
Exhibit 5: Change in estimates
Y/E December Net sales (` cr) EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`)
Source: Angel Research
Earlier estimates CY2012E 1,602 10.4 54.7 CY2013E 1,833 11.8 71.7
Revised estimates CY2012E 1,629 11.8 60.8 CY2013E 1,886 13.3 79.5
Exhibit 4: Continued focus on advertisement and employee spend to drive revenue growth
100 80 60 2.6 40 20 13.44 0 CY2006 CY2007 CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 Advertisement cost (LHS) % of net sales (RHS) 14 20 2.4 24 49 88 5.1 6.1 7 6 5 180 160 140 120 9.5 SPIL 9 8.0 7.4 8 7 38 CY2006 47 CY2007 63 CY2008 78 CY2009 111 CY2010 168 6 CY2011 Employee expense (LHS) % of net sales (RHS) 10.3 10.9 11 10 11.6 12
(` cr)
SPIL
(%)
3 2 1 0
80 60 40 20 0
50
(` cr)
800
1,446
1,629
November 9, 2012
1,886
666
761
990
(%)
(%)
3.1
(` cr)
3.1
100
(` cr)
(%)
6 100 50 76 0 CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS) 97 69 144 192 250 4 2 0
60 30 61 0 CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 PAT (LHS) CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E PAT margin (RHS) 78 61 6.2 120 129 169
7 6 5
EV (` cr)
2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Nov-07 EV Nov-08 1.6x Nov-09 1.2x Nov-10 0.8x Nov-11 Nov-12 0.4x
(`)
Nov-09 10x
Nov-10 15x
Nov-11 20c
Nov-12 25x
November 9, 2012
(%)
150
(` cr)
90
Key concerns
Shift of focus to the unlisted subsidiary
Abbott Laboratories, USA, bought the healthcare solution business from Piramal Healthcare Ltd. (PHL) for a consideration of US$3.8bn, which was transferred to the unlisted subsidiary, Abbott Healthcare Pvt. Ltd (AHPL). The transfer included manufacturing facilities at Baddi, Himachal Pradesh; rights to approximately 350 brands and trademarks; and ~5,000 employees relating to its domestic formulations business. Since the unlisted subsidiary is 100% owned with extended portfolio from Piramals healthcare business, there is a possibility that the parent company shifts its focus to the unlisted entity. Also, the merger would limit listed AILs access to untapped therapeutic segments where PHL already exists.
Company Background
AIL is a 50.44% subsidiary of Abbott Capital India Ltd., UK, which is a subsidiary of Abbott Laboratories, USA. In CY2011, the company merged with Solvay Pharma (SPIL), which was acquired by the parent company in CY2010. Post merger, AIL strengthened its distribution network to 35 distribution points (from 18), and caters to 4,500 stockists and 1,50,000 retailers. AILs employee count increased from 1,747 in CY2010 to 2,425 in CY2011. The company caters to a wide range of therapeutic segments like Gastroenterology, Womens health, CNS, Metabolics, Pain management, Anaesthesia, Neonatology, Vitamins, etc.
November 9, 2012
November 9, 2012
Balance Sheet
Y/E December (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Reserves& Surplus Shareholders Funds Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability (net)
Other Long Term Liabilities Long Term Provisions
CY2009 14 258 272 2 274 107 58 49 0 339 176 17 102 44 114 225 274
CY2010 14 292 305 0 306 118 69 50 1 403 189 20 129 65 148 255 306
CY2011 21 523 544 (6) 11 549 192 112 80 1 31 678 259 27 255 133 5 241 438 549
CY2012E 21 608 629 (6) 11 634 221 132 89 1 31 710 363 30 199 112 5 197 513 634
CY2013E 21 732 754 (6) 11 759 254 154 99 1 31 834 470 35 193 129 6 206 627 759
Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Long term loans and adv. Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Inventory Debtors Other current assets Current liabilities Net Current Assets Mis. Exp. not written off Total Assets
November 9, 2012
Cash acquired on amalgamation Inc./(Dec.) in Cash Opening Cash balances Closing Cash balances
146 17 164
12 164 176
13 176 189
51 70 189 259
November 9, 2012
Key Ratios
Y/E December (` cr) Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (0.6) (1.8) 441.5 (0.6) (2.7) 1,455.1 (0.5) (1.8) 4,297.9 (0.6) (1.9) (0.6) (1.9) 7.4 47 18 66 15 8.8 43 20 52 21 9.3 48 25 54 31 7.9 51 25 50 37 8.0 38 25 46 30 35.4 112.2 31.5 20.1 54.4 21.2 30.2 63.7 28.3 29.2 60.6 22.0 32.7 80.1 24.4 11.6 0.7 3.0 23.3 34.8 (0.7) 70.7 5.9 0.6 3.4 13.0 (0.6) 8.9 0.7 3.4 20.2 (0.5) 10.6 0.7 6.0 42.3 (0.5) 12.1 0.7 6.6 52.4 (0.6) 56.7 56.8 63.4 17.0 198.6 44.6 44.6 52.9 17.0 223.3 56.7 56.6 63.7 17.0 256.1 60.8 60.8 70.0 18.0 296.0 79.5 79.5 90.1 18.0 354.6 40.0 63.4 11.4 1.1 3.8 30.1 10.7 50.8 52.9 10.2 1.1 2.9 42.0 9.5 25.8 63.7 5.7 1.1 2.0 19.8 5.2 24.0 20.9 4.9 1.2 1.7 14.2 4.3 18.4 16.2 4.1 1.2 1.4 10.5 3.5 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E
November 9, 2012
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Abbott India No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
November 9, 2012
11