Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Exhibit 17
Exhibit 17
Subject:
Iocation:
Start:
End:
mtg: BCS Business Review for Ann HP Palo Alto Site / Executive Council Conf Rm & Diai Number listed below
Recurrence:
Meeting Status:
Organizer: Required Attendees: Optional Attendees:
Meeting organizer
Livermore, Ann Livermore, Ann; Donatelli, Dave; Levine, Marc A (Enterprise Business Finance) Pilette, Vincent; Fink, Martin R; McQueen, Kathryn
ADDED:
Ann's DiaI# Toll Free 866.409.2889; Intl/ToIl 702.696.4520, code# 243 500# (Gail to initiate)
Attendees - in person: Ann, Dave, Vincent Attendees - via phone: Martin, Marc (tentative)
Slide materials:
r.
Exhibit:
oc
'2)
'7_
Wit:
Date:
Highly Confidential
HPC_0001 1296
Livermore, Ann Saturday, January 16, 2010 9:08 PM Levine, Marc A (Enterprise Business Finance) Mantegani, Gail (Enterprise Business)
FW: BCS
Subject:
Going to wait until the last 2 weeks of February to do the BCS review.
Ann
From: Livermore, Ann Sent: Saturday, January 16, 2010 1:06 PM To: Hurd, Mark Subject: FW: BCS
FYI on BCS. Dave and I discussed this further on Friday. He is taking some immediate sales actions. I have agreed to wait to do a full BCS review in the last 2 weeks of February to include the x86 recommendation.
Ann
From: Donatelli, Dave Sent: Thursday, January 14, 2010 7:30 PM To: Livermore, Ann Subject: Re: BCS
Hi Ann, I am waiting for the price tag and schedule on the x86 roadmap. lt will take about 30 days for the team to complete the detailed work. Our first milestone was hit when the team could boot HP-UX on x86 on 12/23. . I am expecting an incremental i 00 million plus price tag to do the port. . As i mentioned before, the engineering road map when I arrived called for the exit from the business. Based on work that Vincent and I have done we have determined that the combined BCSITS earns more than our PC Business. Yesterday I asked NEC to help fund the port. They were quite pleased to learn that we planned on staying in the business for the long term. In the meantime we are replacing all the regional heads of BCS sales. We are also greatly increasing sales coverage. I would request your help in two ways. Place BCS revenue goals on all of your regional sales heads that have some bite for non performance. Second, please help call offthe pile on crowd. We know there are issues. We identified them. Having staff people sending us notes ( you have not seen these) saying thaI there are issues after we tell the same staff members that there are issues only distracts from our ability to fix the issues. I am transparent on what I see are the problems, and I want to devote all of my and the teams best efforts to fixing them. Thanks, Dave
From: Livermore, Ann To: Donatelli, Dave Cc: Levine, Marc A (Enterprise Business Finance); Pilette, Vincent Sent: Fri Jan 15 00:13:00 2010 Subject: BCS
I would like to set up 90 minutes for a BCS review. Please include me and Marc Levine, plus whomever you want to invite from your team. I want to understand our plans to accelerate growth and turnaround the share loss; our product roadmap; our x86 project; and our forecast for FY10 by quarter vs Aspire. lt is key for us to get this business performing.
Highly Confidential
HPC 00011297
Highly Confidential
HPC_0001 1298
Highly Confidential
HPC_00011299
Executive Summary
Four options to extend the Mission Critical business
I
2
Base Plan: Execute current plan of record Exit the UNIX market with the last Itanium processor (Kittson)
Mission Critical on x86: Port P-UX to x86 an I deliver Superdome x86 blade Redefine the UNIX market wi h mission critica offerings on volume economics
RECOMMENDATION: i +2
OEM Solaris a)Oracle/SUN and HP unite against IBM and align on rules of engagement b)Oracle/SUN enables HP to sell Solaris, but competes vigorously for business
Extend Itanium: Fund Intel t continue the Itanium roadmap Prolong current UNIX mark: t position in a declining UNIX market
March 3. 20
HP Private
FD
. Hardware.vpme :x. perdohi.Je
. Software porting: HP-UX on x86 . Value added ftware (virtualizalion, mgmt, hi Performance testing and ISV porting
FY10
$20 $30 $4 $5
$59
FY11
$45 $35 $5 $28
$113
FY12
$75 $30 $5 $38
$148
FY13
$65 $30 $5 $33
$133
FY14
$50 $22 $5 $24
$101
($ I O
Gross Invement
s Fdiribution of Fsources
$0
$59
($15)
$98
($20)
$128
($20)
$113
Total N et Investment
$91
$185
$70
$185
$70
$185
$70
$185
$70
$185
$314
$353
$383
$368
$276
March 3, 2010
HP Pnvate
III
FY08 FY09 FY10
FY11
($15
----
- - ($22B)
--
I- -i a
-FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
Revenue . FY09 HP-UX business declined 25%, which was slightly ahead of at market . Economic recession has reset UNIX market to -$14B and is expected to remain flat to slightly down through FYI I . Market visibility to Intel end of Itanium roadmap expected in FY13, resulting in steep decline of revenue thru FYI 7
. HP-IJXBa
Ran Fv
TSBa
Ran Fv
!OOP
. FY09 00F decline followed revenue
23%
decline
. Expectto stabilize during FYi 0-FY1I . 00F declines $4.3B FY13-FYI7 due to lack
of roadmap
$2,000
($O.4B
$1,500
Q-
$O.6B)
- N-($U:98)
($1
o o
$1,000
$500
$0
FY08
For ESSN to hold profit flat FYI 2-FYI7 ISS would have to grow @ 8.2% or 2X market SWD would have to grow I 7.5% or almost
i
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
F'17
IHRUXBflanOOp
lTSBaseFlanOOP
Marchl,2010
HP Private
Transition Integrity installed base to x86 systems as Itanium EOL becomes visible Grow UNIX market share through mission critical offering with HP-UX and HP x86 servers/blades Expand the control point that HP-UX and associated software provides in enterprise accounts
. . .
Maintain current lntegrity/HP-UX roadmap through transition Develop mission critical x86 servers/blades Port HP-UX and complete mission critical SW infrastructure portfolio to x86 Invest to bring expanded ISV community to HP-UX/x86
Lower HP-UX/x86 ASPs disrupt the UNIX market; HP business model challenges IBM and Oracle/SUN profitability UNIX volume expands while total value of UNIX market adjusts HP committed to mission critical UNIX market and delivers compelling value prop for customers
Financial implications
s
High investment costs, but significant upside revenue/profit with acceptable time to recover investment Significant TS support attach but some reduction in overall TS revenue due to lower support pricing
Opportunity
. . .
challenge IBM and their business model as the market share leader; HP on mainstream, IBM investing at a loss Intel, NEC, SAP, others invest with HP to enable HP-UX eco-system on x86 Oracle/SUN cannot compete; IBM stuck with huge POWER investment and inability to make full transition to x86
Risks
.
s s
UNIX market declines faster than anticipated; Customers accept Windows/Linux as mission critical Oracle/SUN does not make Oracle DB available on HP-UX/x86 Microsoft partnership is significantly strained
March 3, 2010
HP Private
Investment
. Requires net investment of $489M to port HP-UX to x86 and deliver mission critical x86 hardware platform
$3,000
$2,000 $1,000
sFY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
HP-UXFoposed Fv
ITSFopod Fv
Revenue s Predominantly ltanium until FYI 5 when product set fully featured and market acceptance has occurred s revenue still declining in FY13 and FY14 as FOL Alpha contracts expire, begin ramping for x86 -3 years after product introduced
Profit
s
$1,500
40.0%
39.0%
38.0%
Q- $1,000
37.0% 36.0%
$500
. OOP % rate impacted by x86 becoming larger % of mix, however will stabilize between 36-37% . Uptick between FYi 3-FY14 reflects end of Intel ltanium expense
0 Investment pays back after 4.4 yrs, mid FY14
FY12
FY1 3
FY1 4
FY1 5
FY16
FYi 7
HP-tJXFoposed OP
6
TSAoposed OP
HP-UX&TSCombined OF/o
March3,2010
HP Private
Redwood
Base Plan
100%
1+2 PIan
r 90%
80%
r 70%
60%
$10,000
$8,000
50%
$8,000
$6,000 $4,000
$2,000
s-
Fy'10
iu
FY11
$6,000
$4,000 $2,000
40.0%
30.0% 20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
- Ba
- - UNIXMarket-HP-UXExit
-HPUkeiy Share
- - HPOptimistic Share
Increased units, lower price points UNIX market reshapes as a blend of value/volume attributes Lowered prices cause margin challenges for IBM and Oracle/Sun upsetting their business model
UNIX market becomes more Mainframe-like with entrenched bases for business processing and decision support High prices and widening margins benefit IBM and Oracle/Sun
lP Private
Base
i
2.
Itanium end-of-life signals HP exit from Market. Causes strategic decisions to stall while options are re-evaluated. HP advice (largely from HP IT experience) becomes key. Most business processing and decision support (-6O% of market) stay firm with UNIX (AIX largely with some giving reconsideration to Oracle/Sun even in the high end especially due to Oracle DB and SAP usage). Many who had been on fence for moving to x86 choices move there now, especially for 25/45 and blade solutions impacting 40% of market. Others shift to AIX/Solaris, even while their high end offerings increase in price/margin.
Proposed
Introduction of HP-UX/x86 affirms value and importance of UNIX market HP-UX/x86 gains credibility, begins to put price pressures into UNIX market impacting accelerating ASP drops for all vendors. Integrity sales remain strong as there is a future. HP-UX/x86 momentum grows, differentiation in product drives significant increase in volumes in HP-UX setting up share gains for x86 offerings. Strong pressure on AIX/Solaris and they are forced to drop price points or loose sales. HP's differentiation in HP-UX/x86 but more importantly in how it integrates into the Cl sets HP up for leadership in the market with strong steady gains against competitors who struggle to justify investments as their margins drop and their products lag.
HP Private
7
Transition Integrity installed base to HP x86 systems running Solaris as Itanium EOL becomes visible Disrupt UNIX market by promoting Solaris as mission critical with HP portfolio (HW, SW, support)
. .
s
Maintain current Integrity/HP-UX roadmap through transition Develop mission critical x86 servers/blades Develop tools to migrate HP-UX customers to Solaris Invest in infrastructure portfolio to complete mission critical Solaris offering
Financial implications
. .
HP perceived to be exiting UNIX market Oracle/SUN has OS control point; gains customer loyalty Oracle/SUN and IBM lead UNIX market
Gain new customers; lose majority of installed base Near-term marketshare gains; loss of profit long-term
.
Financial implications
.
Opportunity
s
Increase revenue near-term, but lose UNIX market snare Significant reduction in TS support attach
. .
Significant ISV portfolio already available on Solaris Modest ProLiant business model expansion; Solaris and HP support for market leading ProLiant and mission critical x86 server portfolio Reduced investment in mission critical offerings
Risks
I .
Oracle/SUN owns control point; HP dependent upon Oracle/SUN cooperation in a co-opetition model Installed base prefers sigle mission critical vendor; Customers committed to UNIX will move to IBM or Oracle/SUN with their integrated stacks, long term roadmaps and mission critical partnership
March3,2010
HP Private
.
s
Extend BOS Integrity/HP-UX business to retain installed base and retain distant #2 market share position Buy time to benefit from natural evolution of UNIX market transition to Windows, Linux, Solaris on x86 ProLiant dominates the standards-based server market
Fund Intel to deliver improved 22nm Kittson, additional kicker in 2016 ($218M for both) Upgrade Integrity blades and Superdome blades with new processor, support next BladeSystem enclosure and continue to enhance HP-UX/lntegrity ($300M)
Market implications
. .
HP holds distant #2 market share position until Itanium end is known (2014), then rapid decline occurs IBM and Oracle/SUN grow marketshare; maintain high margins in smaller UNIX market
Financial implications
. .
s
Very significant investment for moderate return due to eventual end of Itanium Incremental revenue from extended roadmap $3.735B (BCS $2.8B, TS $935M) with incremental BS OP $800M TS support revenue continues to significantly decline, though at slower rate.
Opportunity
. . .
Achieve socket level compatibility for Xeon and Itanium Delay inevitable exit of the mission critical RISC/EPIC market Continue long term account relationships with Cl in mission critical accounts with Windows/Linux on ProLiant
Risk
.
s
Intel not interested to extend Itanium roadmap; opts to sell IP to HP Missed opportunity to invest in longer-term HPUX strategy
March 3. 2010
HP Private
lo
HP Private
x86
$56 ($10)
$46
.
NED
$65
Total BCS
$346
n
Intel Funding
($124)
($27)
($162)
$185
$38
$70
s i 71
$70
N et R&D
$46
$38
$255
. HP-UX R&D includes both hardware and software development for HP-UX on Integrity servers . Funding for Intel development of Itanium is being amortized through end of FY13 . CPE/RTNV is funded by TS to cover engineering costs associated with current product engineer and rights to new version credits
12
March 3,2010
HP Private
Server Roadmap
1+2 PIan: HP-UX on Mission Critical x86 2010 2011 2012
Tukwila
ITAN PUM
2013
Kittson
Poulson
HP-UX!1i
s u perdome
Ivy-B ridge
Haswell-EX
Broadwell-EX
H P-UX/x86
4
.
ProLiant DL980
x86 Superdome
13
March 3,2010
HP Private
2011
20152016
Port
Drive Differentiation
H P-UX/x86
'
e
eIoper Release
'.4,
x86 Superdome Support
4*;
"Green" OS leader
Near zero down time
I
s
. .
.
0
Performance
14
March 32O1O
HP Private
Server Roadmap
4: Extend the Itanium roadmap
2010
Tu kwi ta
2011
Poulson
2014
Kittson 22nm
K+
Integrity Blades
Haswell-EX
Broadwell-EX
ProLiant DL980
15
March 3.2010
HP Private
x86and HP-UX/x86
s
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
- - HP-iJX Base
HP-IJXBase + IS Base
---HP-UXAoposed
16
HP-UX+ISRoposed
March 3, 2010
HP Private
MEL: "Likely" numbers in market share added for comparison & circled in red
Proposed Plan
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
Revenue
YiY Growth
$ 3,054
2.2/
2,814
$ 2,622
2,391
$ 2,218
2,022
1,806
1,572
3,054
$ 2,814 $ 2,650
2,474 $
2,392
2,336
$ 2,299 $ 2,280
-7.9%-6.8%-8.8%-7.2%-8.8%-1O.7%- 13.0%
$
2.2%-7.9%-5.S%-6.7%-3.3%-2.3%-1.6%-O.8%
$
1,634
53.5%
1,505
53.5%
1,403
53.5%
1,279
53.5%
1,186
53.5%
1,082
53.5%
966
53.5%
841
53.5%
1,634
53.5%
1,505
53.5%
1,418
53.5%
1,324
53.5%
1,280
53.5%
1,250
53.5%
1,230
53.5%
1,220
53.5%
,1381,918
$
2,171
$
2,439
$
2,392
$ 2,393
-1.6% $
2,298
2,299
-3.9%
2,224
$ 2,332
1.4%
2,211
$
2,200
$
s 1,918
-10.3%
$ 2,168
2,137
1,730
1,212
771
458
256
1,918
-10.3%
2,170
13.1%
2,433
12.1%
2,417
3.7%
2,616
8.2%
13.0V-l.4%-19.1%-29.9%-36.4%-4O.6%-44.O%
619
28,6%
543
28.3%
611
28,6%
463
26.8%
357
29.4%
211
27,4%
125
27,4%
64
24.9%
484
25.2%
530
24.4%
559
23.0%
501
20.9%
516
22.5%
506
21.7%
533
22.1%
575
22.0%
4,972
4,982
0.2%
4,759
-4.5%
$ 4,121
-13.4/
3,430
$ 2,793
2,264
1,828
4,972
4,984
0.2%
5,083
2.0%
4,867 $ 4,691
-4.3% -3,6%
4,668
-0.5%
4,716
1.0%
4,896
3.8%
-16.8%-18.6%-19.O%- 19.2%
1543
45.0%
2177
43.8%
2124
42.6%
2013
42.3%
1742
42.3%
1293
45.3%
1091
48.2%
905
49.5%
2117
42.6%
2036
40.8%
1976
38.9%
1825
37.5%
1796
38.3%
1756
37.6%
1763
37.4%
1795
36.7%
52
163
434 $
633
884
1,085
1,272
$
(59) $
(89) $
(37) s
82
253
464
672
890
monthS
s 2,176
17
March 1, 2010
HP Private
FY10
$
FY11
$
FY12
29
8 $ $ $
131
FY13
$ $ $
FY14
$ $ $
FY15
$ $
$
FY16
$ $ $
FY17
P$
Total
HW/SW Reenue
584
165
79
696
197 139
629
178
190
452
128
$
$
290
82
$
$
2,812
796 935
op
TS Re',aenue
s
$
s
$
37
15
237fl
275
oMarket realization that Itanium is going EOL (2 years beyond original target
. 3 years delay for bulk TS revenue upside (due to warranty) o Assumes flat OP @28.3% (includes payments to Intel)
oLarge upside in Poulson sales (FY12-14) driven by extended roadmap.
Investments
FY10
-
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
-
FY15
$
-
FY16
$
$ -
FY17
$ $
-
Totals
$
$ $ $
(141) $
6,266
10,820
$ $ $
(3,429) $
20,916
16,050
$ $
(6,436) $
38,592 35,160 67,316
$ $ $
(10,006)
2,659
780
25,242
$
$ $
12,637
10,629
2,001
SW
Total
46,110
71,352
36,860 49,497
$
$
44,010
54,639
$
3,439
16,945
33,537
2,001
19
March32010
HP Private
Redwood
ISV spend
Front end loaded for native ports of top mission critical ISVs
s
6000
C
5000
o
C
-eJ
o
o
4000
s
Majority of ISV spend is FSC (loaner equip & funds) vs. R&D expense Spend expected to be less than 1/3 of the Integrity ISV spend
3000
2000
1000
O
o-
Risks
I&'mp
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Phase I : Large ISVs (Oracle, SAP, IBM), top vertical ISVs, completers
lSVs require recertification Major database (like Oracle DB) needed to address TAM
Phase 3: Smaller ISVs (next i 000), primarily Red Hat ABI based
18
March3,2010
HPPrivate
February22, 2010