G ARIN H ART Y ANG

RESEARCH GROUP
MEMORANDUM
TO: FROM: DATE: RE: Friends of Anthony Brown Frederick Yang September 19, 2012

1 7 2 4 Con n ecti cut Aven ue, N.W . W ash in gt on , DC 2 00 09 Tel : (2 02 ) 2 34 -5 57 0 Fax: (2 0 2 ) 23 2 -81 3 4

Results Of Recent Statewide Survey Among Maryland Democrats

On September 12 and 13, 2012, Garin-Hart-Yang interviewed a statewide sample of 504 likely Democratic primary voters. The survey, which has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, is representative of a 2014 statewide Democratic primary both geographically and demographically. For example, two-fifths of the sample

comprises African-American voters (which is slightly conservative compared with 43.5% from the voter file).

Our survey results are VERY encouraging for Anthony Browns prospects to win the 2014 Democratic primary for governor and succeed Martin OMalley: 1. Lt. Governor Brown starts off with the HIGHEST name recognition AND positives of the potential 2014 primary candidates. 2. As a result, Lt. Governor Brown currently holds a double-digit lead in the initial primary trial heats, enjoying strong support in the Baltimore media market and even winning (by a narrow plurality) in the Washington, D.C., media market.

G ARIN H ART Y ANG RESEARCH GROUP

Anthony Brown Has Highest Name ID And Positives
Candidate Images among All Voters
Positive feelings Name recognition

Anthony Brown
63%

Doug Gansler

Peter Franchot

Ken Ulman

54% 41% 35% 34%

54%

21%
8%

Primary Trial Heats For Governor

Anthony Bro wn Doug Gansler Peter F ranchot Ken Ulman Not sure

4-wa y Trial Heat

3-way Trial Heat

2-way Trial Heat

33%
+13

35% 31%
+14

37%

34%
+16

41%

+13 +14
4% 18% 14% 5% 23% 25%

Two important factors to note about the trial heat standings: First, not only does the Lt. Governor have the MOST vote, but his vote also is the MOST strongly committed: two-thirds (65%) of Brown voters say they support him STRONGLY, compared with Doug Ganslers strength of support of only 43%.
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G ARIN H ART Y ANG RESEARCH GROUP

Second, Lieutenant Governor Brown is strongly positioned because he is leading in BOTH major jurisdictions, garnering more votes in the Baltimore media market than his two opponents COMBINED. The Washington, D.C., media market is looking like the battleground (especially if both Montgomery County candidates decide to run for governor), but even in trial heats with Gansler and Franchot, who have longer track records in this jurisdiction, the Lt. Governor leads in the Washington, D.C., area (admittedly narrowly) in BOTH the four-way trial heat and the three-way trial heat (without Franchot), and even in a one-on-one match up with the attorney general.

In summary, the polling data indicates that Lt. Governor Brown is best positioned to win the 2014 Democratic nomination, and the data are further encouraging about his prospects to EXPAND his support. While it is not unexpected that a sizeable

proportion of Democratic primary voters (33%) have yet to make up their mind for an election that is almost two years away, the data also show that Lt. Governor Brown is well positioned to appeal to undecided voters through a professional campaign focused on communicating his compelling personal narrative and a record of accomplishments serving with Governor OMalley on the key priorities of education, health care, and the environment.

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