Monthly Update | October 2012

November 19, 2012

Tata Motors
Jaguar Land Rover Monthly sales update
Exhibit 1: JLR - wholesale volumes
Oct-12 Oct-11 chg (%) Sep-12 chg (%) YTD FY13 YTD FY12 chg (%) Jaguar Total 3,339 5,231 (36.2) 2,808 18.9 3.8 5.4 24,945 163,846 188,791 29,875 126,368 156,243 (16.5) 29.7 20.8

BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Automobile 72,130 12,933 1.5 321/160 1,705,763 2 16,312 5,571 TAMO.BO TTMT@IN

`264 `319
12 Months

Land Rover 24,558 20,927 27,897 26,158

17.4 23,653 6.6 26,461

Source: Company, Angel Research

For October 2012, Jaguar and Land Rover (JLR) posted in-line wholesale volume growth of 6.6% yoy (5.4% mom) to 27,897 units. While Jaguar sales declined 36.2% yoy (up 18.9% mom) primarily due to the impact of the hurricane Sandy in the USA; Land Rover sales registered a strong growth of 17.4% yoy (3.8% mom) backed by strong growth in Evoque, Freelander and Defender sales. Land Rover sales benefitted from the start of the third shift at the Halewood plant which eased the production constraints for Evoque (~9,500 units during the month) and Freelander models. The total volumes for the month were negatively impacted, due to the impending launch of the model year 2013 products, including new Range Rover, XF and XJ, which are slated to begin dispatches from December 2012. For instance, JLR manufactured only ~600 units of Range Rover in October 2012 as compared to ~2,500 units in October 2011.

Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 34.7 12.6 44.9 7.8

Abs. (%) Sensex Tata Motors

3m 3.7 9.8

1yr 12.0 55.1

3yr 9.3 107.6

Exhibit 2: Global peers wholesale volumes

Oct-12 BMW Audi Oct-11 chg (%) Sep-12 chg (%) YTD FY13 YTD FY12 chg (%) (9.5) (9.5) (11.1) 886,144 875,050 760,637 815,875 769,200 741,680 8.6 13.8 2.6 132,823 115,136 123,600 108,500 15.4 146,843 13.9 136,600 6.0 123,358

Mercedes 109,632 103,378

Source: Company, Angel Research

The volume performance for global peers like BMW and Audi remained strong in October 2012. BMWs global sales surged 15.4% yoy driven by 51.7% and 18.5% yoy growth in China and US respectively. The management expects the sales momentum to continue going ahead led by ramp-up in China and strong demand across models (mainly X1, X3, 1 and 3 series). Audi too posted a strong growth of 13.9% yoy driven by the SUV range (Q3, Q5 and Q7) and A5 models. China and US continue to drive the overall growth of the company (sales up 29.5% in China and 14.5% in US).
Yaresh Kothari
+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Tata Motors | October 2012

Exhibit 3: Retail volumes - JLR

Oct-12 Jaguar Total 3,010 Oct-11 chg (%) 3,939 (23.6) Sep-12 chg (%) YTD FY13 YTD FY12 chg (%) 6,255 (51.9) (27.7) (31.8) 29,446 166,237 195,683 29,729 122,099 151,828 (1.0) 36.1 28.9

Land Rover 22,166 18,931 25,176 22,870

17.1 30,652 10.1 36,907

Source: Company, Angel Research

JLR reported a healthy retail volume growth of 10.1% yoy to 25,176 units. The volumes are not comparable on a mom basis as September tends to be exceptionally strong given change in number plates in UK. The growth was driven solely by Land Rover which registered a strong growth of 17.1% yoy to 22,166 units driven by 61.1% and 39.4% yoy growth in Evoque and Freelander sales. In terms of geography, China was the primary driver of growth as volumes surged 68.1% yoy; however, US sales declined 19.2% yoy primarily due to the impact of hurricane Sandy. Jaguar sales posted a decline of 23.6% yoy to 3,010 units as introduction of the 2013 model year products later in the year impacted the sales across geographies.

Exhibit 4: Jaguar retail sales by car-type

Oct-12 Oct-11 chg (%) Sep-12 chg (%) YTD FY13 YTD FY12 chg (%) XF New XJ XK Total Jaguar 1,976 716 318 3,010 2,487 1,127 325 3,939 (20.5) (36.5) (2.2) (23.6) 4,550 1,207 498 6,255 (56.6) (40.7) (36.1) (51.9) 18,564 8,560 2,322 29,446 17,569 9,130 3,030 29,729 5.7 (6.2) (23.4) (1.0)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 5: Land Rover retail sales by car-type

Oct-12 Oct-11 Defender Discovery Freelander Range Rover Range Rover Evoque Range Rover Sport New Range Rover 1,238 3,296 3,507 1,458 8,143 4,478 46 1,711 3,170 2,515 2,255 5,055 4,225 chg (%) Sep-12 (27.6) 4.0 39.4 (35.3) 61.1 6.0 1,783 5,040 5,530 2,503 9,410 6,355 31 chg (%) YTD FY13 YTD FY12 (30.6) (34.6) (36.6) (41.7) (13.5) (29.5) (27.7) 8,480 24,826 27,616 14,463 59,531 31,162 159 166,237 11,637 25,666 28,538 16,818 8,151 31,289 122,099 chg (%) (27.1) (3.3) (3.2) (14.0) 630.4 (0.4) 36.1

Total Land Rover 22,166 18,931 Source: Company, Angel Research

17.1 30,652

November 19, 2012

Tata Motors | October 2012

Exhibit 6: Jaguar monthly retail sales trend by car-type

(units) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Oct-11 Apr-12 Feb-12 May-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Jul-12

Exhibit 7: Land Rover monthly retail sales trend by car-type

(units) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-11 Aug-12 Mar-12 Oct-11 Apr-12 Feb-12 May-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Jul-12

XF

New XJ

XK

Defender Range Rover Evoque

Discovery Range Rover Sport

Freelander New Range Rover

Range Rover

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 8: JLR retail sales region wise

Oct-12 Oct-11 chg (%) Sep-12 chg (%) YTD FY13 YTD FY12 chg (%) Asia Pacific China Region Europe North America UK Rest of the world 1,260 859 46.7 68.1 6.7 (19.2) 2.1 1,497 6,124 6,398 5,016 5,263 (15.8) (24.1) (3.2) (15.9) (63.7) (18.7) 9,271 40,268 41,599 33,825 37,173 33,547 6,552 23,578 32,077 31,243 29,693 28,685 41.5 70.8 29.7 8.3 25.2 16.9 4,651 2,766 6,196 5,806 4,216 5,219 4,575 4,030 4,278 4,190

13.5 12,609

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 9: JLR retail sales-mix by region

(%) 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

18.3 17.6 22.8

17.7 17.4 19.7

20.2 13.7 21.7

16.4 18.3 17.2

20.7 5.0 17.8

14.1

17.5 14.7 18.9

16.2 18.8 17.1 21.3

17.8 16.9 16.0 23.8

17.3 17.9 18.0 21.2

22.0 3.9 23.5

14.3

17.0 18.2 16.7

33.9

34.2

28.0 25.4 12.1 23.2 23.3 26.0 23.6

13.1 22.6 20.2 14.6 21.8 22.2 20.7 20.7

18.9

13.6 17.3 24.6

18.0

17.5

17.7

25.9

16.6

18.5

Dec-11

Mar-12

Aug-12

Apr-12

Oct-11

Jul-12

Feb-12

Nov-11

May-12

Asia Pacific

China Region

Europe

North America

UK

Rest of the world

Source: Company, Angel Research

Outlook and valuation: We retain our positive view on JLR and expect a 12%
volume CAGR over FY2012-14E driven by Evoque and new product launches (Range Rover, Range Rover Sport, Jaguar XF Sportbrake and all-wheel drive and smaller engine options in the XF and XJ models). Further, favorable market and product-mix and stable commodity prices will help mitigate raw-material cost pressures. We maintain our Buy rating on Tata Motors with a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) target price of `319.

November 19, 2012

Sep-12

Oct-12

Jan-12

Jun-12

Tata Motors | October 2012

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered

Tata Motors No No No No

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Ratings (Returns):

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to 15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

November 19, 2012

Tata Motors | October 2012

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November 19, 2012