Using Local Labor Market Data to Guide High School Students College and Career Preparation

Moderator: Shira Solomon, Ph.D. CNA Education October 24, 2012

Agenda
Introduction to the REL and the workshop Presentation Aligning CTE with high-wage and highdemand occupations in TN Resource demonstration & guided activity Tennessee Supply and Demand (SDA) Excel Tool BREAK Individual exercise Exploring the SDA Excel Tool Resource demonstration & guided activity Taking it to the next level with Jobs4TN Wrap up, Stakeholder Feedback Survey, and next steps
2

Whats a REL?
Authorized by the Education Sciences Reform Act of 2002 Regional applied research and analysis capacity supporting state, district ,and local needs Under the auspices of the Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences (IES)

What are REL Appalachias goals?

Assess regional research needs by monitoring emerging education issues and challenges Maintain and refine research alliances through ongoing dialogue between educators in each region and researchers Provide analytic technical support to increase use of data and analysis to understand policies and programs, make decisions, and support effective practice Conduct research and evaluation studies of rigor and method appropriate to the questions the studies attempt to answer Distribute results of REL research across the region Coordinate and partner with other RELs and federal, state and local education research and technical assistance organizations

REL Appalachias Mission

Support the applied research and technical support needs of Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia Conduct empirical research and analysis Bring evidence-based information to policy makers and practitioners Ultimate goal, improve student achievement Inform policy and practice for states, districts, schools and other stakeholders Focus on discrete high priority issues and build, over time, a body of knowledge www.relappalachia.org
5

Overall REL Appalachia Theory of Change

Three Major Thematic Areas Unify REL Appalachias Work

Ensuring College and Career Readiness
How can we better utilize extant data to improve student success? How prepared are students to progress through transition points in secondary education? What access and enrollment opportunities in higher-level academic courses exist in rural areas? Can schools better employ dropout prevention tools? Can we better understand the characteristics of these schools and their students, and thereby better target support? Are schools implementing research-based improvement practices in the REL Appalachia region? Has research identified additional promising strategies (e.g., increased learning time)?

Improving Low-Achieving Schools

Supporting Effective Teachers and Leaders

Are there examples of human capital practices and trends that might help inform recruiting and retention efforts? How can data improve working conditions and school culture?

Todays Workshop: Using Local Labor Market Data to Guide High School Students College and Career Preparation
Presented by the REL Appalachia in collaboration with the Tennessee Department of Labor & Workforce Development

Workshop Goals
Obtain information on the alignment between secondary Career and Technical Education (CTE) concentrations and postsecondary educational pathways suited to local job markets; Learn to use two interactive TDLWD tools (Tennessee Supply and Demand Analysis [SDA] Excel tool and the Jobs4TN website) to obtain information about occupations corresponding with Career Clusters associated with the rural counties of southwest Tennessee; and Learn to use data tools to find information on the local labor market that can guide students in their selection of CTE concentrations and non-CTE coursework in preparation for college and career.

Presenters
Dr. Christine Mokher CNA Education Ms. Martha Wettemann Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development

10

Handouts, Break, Survey, and TASL Credit

Handouts Workshop agenda CD with SDA Excel tool SDA Excel Directions for Use, Guided Exercise, Individual Exercise Jobs4TN Guided Exercise Break Stakeholder Feedback Survey Needed to receive TASL credit

11

Discussion: Setting the Stage

What types of high-wage, high-skill, and in-demand jobs do you believe are most prevalent in the area?

What do you believe will be the high-wage, high-skill, and indemand jobs in your region of Tennessee in the next 10 years?
How do you think the current and future job market for your region compares with other regions of the state and the state as a whole? What kind of data or resources related to the local job market do you use to guide students as they prepare for college and career?

12

Connecting Tennessee Career and Technical Education to Tennessee High-Wage and High-Demand Occupations
Christine Mokher, Ph.D. CNA Education October 24, 2012
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the position of the U.S. Department of Education or the Institute of Education Sciences.

Agenda
Connecting Tennessee Career and Technical Education to Tennessee High-Wage and High-Demand Occupations study examines: Availability of CTE concentrations in high school Alignment between CTE concentrations of high school graduates and the local labor market High-wage occupations in your region High-demand occupations in your region Summary of key findings Study limitations

Background
One of the primary purposes of CTE is to prepare students for high skill, high wage, or high demand occupations in current or emerging professions (Perkins IV, 2006, Sec. 2-1). Students want to be prepared for good careers and employers want to fill high-demand jobs
Problem: Policymakers in many states have struggled to align education and training with workforce demands

Definition of CTE concentrator and program areas

A CTE concentrator is a secondary student who has earned three or more credits (full-year courses) in a single CTE program area. Seven broad categories used to classify secondary CTE concentrations during the 2007/08 school year for Perkins reporting purposes.
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Agricultural Education Business Technology Family and Consumer Services Health Science Marketing Technology Engineering Trade and Industrial Education

Tennessee regions
State of Tennessee is divided into 13 regions known as Local Workforce Investment Areas (LWIAs)
Defined by the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development Clusters of neighboring counties Similar labor market and economic conditions

Find your region

LWIA 11 Chester County Decatur County Hardeman County Hardin County Haywood County Henderson County Madison County McNairy County

LWIA 12 Lauderdale County Tipton County

LWIA 13 Fayette County

Availability of CTE concentrations to high school students in the state and in your region

Availability of CTE program areas in state and Southwest regions

36% of all Tennessee high school graduates complete a CTE concentration. The percentage varies by region:
LWIA 11: 43% LWIA 12: 55% LWIA 13: 22%

Availability of CTE program areas for instruction provided directly by the school
Statewide: Average of 3.6 (out of 7 program areas) per school
LWIA 11: Average of 3.6 per school LWIA 12: Average of 4.1 per school LWIA 13: Average of 2.9 per school

Availability of CTE program areas in Tennessee Most commonly available program areas:
Family & Consumer Sciences 72% of TN schools Trade and Industrial 67% of TN schools Business Technology 67% of TN schools

Least commonly available program area:

Technology Engineering 18% of TN schools

Availability of CTE program areas in SW regions

Most commonly available program areas:
LWIA 11
Agricultural Education (71%) Family & Consumer Services (68%) Trade & Industrial (61%)

LWIA 12
Family & Consumer Services (94%) Agricultural Education (78%) Trade & Industrial (78%)

LWIA 13
Family & Consumer Services (70%) Business Technology (63%) Marketing/ Trade & Industrial (43%)

Least commonly available program areas:

LWIA 11
Technology Engineering (0%) Marketing (32%) Business Technology/ Health Science (57%)

LWIA 12
Technology Engineering (0%) Marketing (44%) Business Technology/ Health Science (67%)

LWIA 13
Agricultural Education (13%) Health Science (13%) Technology Engineering (20%)

10

Graduates in TN schools offering CTE concentrations

Percent of TN graduates who attended a high school that offered concentrations in each CTE program area
Highest for Trade and Industrial Education 92% Lowest for Technology Engineering 26%

Large differences by region:

Technology Engineering available to no graduates in regions 10 and 12, compared to 74% of graduates in region 3

11

Alignment between CTE concentrations of high school graduates and the local labor market

12

Comparison of CTE graduates to current workforce

Compared the percent of graduates with CTE concentrations in each program area to the percent of workers employed in corresponding occupations in the local labor market
Greatest differences:
Agricultural Education percentage of concentrators (16%) was greater than the percentage of workers in corresponding occupations (1%) Business Technology percentage of concentrators (13%) was less than the percentage of workers in corresponding occupations (23%)

13

Snapshot of alignment between CTE concentrators and the current labor market in Tennessee regions

Index of dissimilarity:

0=identical proportion of CTE graduates and workers in corresponding program areas 1=no graduates with CTE concentrations in program areas corresponding to occupations in the workforce

14

High-wage occupations in Southwest Tennessee regions

15

Classification of wages for occupations

The definition for high-wage is based on Tennessees fiveyear state plan for Perkins IV funding,
High-wage occupations are those with wages 20 percent greater than a median wage to be determined by each LEA using workforce development information from their respective LWIA region

We calculated the weighted median of the annual wages (2006) for all occupations in the region by:
1. Creating a number of records for each occupation equal to the number of workers 2. Ordering median wages for all of the occupational records from smallest to largest 3. Finding the midpoint in the ordered observations
16

Classification of wages for occupations

Median annual wages for all occupations in the state of Tennessee ranged from $23,658 to $32,616 by region Weighted median of annual wages for all occupations in each program area is calculated by region using the same method just described. These median values are used to define wage classifications as follows:
Low-wage at least 20% less than the regional median wage Moderate-wage within 20% of the regional median wage High-wage at least 20% greater than the regional median wage

17

High-wage program areas in state and SW regions Program areas classified as high-wage tend to vary by region
Technology Engineering is the only high-wage program area in all regions

Percent of projected jobs in high-wage program areas

Statewide: 17%
LWIA 11: 1% (Technology Engineering) LWIA 12: 0% (Technology Engineering) LWIA 13: 51% (Technology Engineering, Business Technology, and Health Science)

18

Graduates in high-wage program areas in state and SW regions

Percent of graduates who concentrated in highwage program areas

Statewide: 6%
0% in LWIAs 11 and 12; 5% in LWIA 13

Percent of high-wage jobs over the ten year period (2006-2016) that could potentially be filled by 2008 graduates with relevant CTE concentrations:
3% statewide
0% in LWIAs 11 and 12; 1.5% in LWIA 13

19

Projected high-wage jobs (2006-2016) that could be filled by 2008 CTE graduates, by Tennessee region The extent to which CTE graduates could meet workforce demands for high-wage jobs varies by region
Over 10% of projected high-wage jobs could be filled in regions 6 and 12 0.7% of projected high-wage jobs could be filled in region 11 No graduates in high-wage area of Technology Engineering in region 10

20

High-demand occupations in Southwest Tennessee regions

21

Classification of regional demand for occupations

For each region, compared the projected change in the number of occupations related to each program area to the projected change in the total number of occupations The projected change in employment for each region is calculated by dividing the total employment in 2006 by the projected number of new openings (by 2016).

Projected change in the number of jobs from 2006-2016

LWIA 11: 10.2% LWIA 12: 8.2% LWIA 13: 7.0%

22

Classification of regional demand for occupations

The projected change in employment for all occupations in each program area is calculated by region.

Demand classifications are based on the projected change in the number of jobs (2006-2016) for corresponding occupations in each CTE program area relative to the change in the projected number of all jobs in the region
Low-demand 20% less Moderate-demand within 20% High-demand 20% greater

23

High-demand program areas in state and SW regions Program areas classified as high-demand tend to vary by region
No program area classified as high-demand in all regions However, Health Science is classified as high-demand in all three Southwest regions (LWIAs 11, 12, and 13)

Percent of projected jobs in high-demand program areas

Statewide: 31%
LWIA 11: 20% (Health Science) LWIA 12: 31% (Health Science, Family & Consumer Services) LWIA 13: 28% (Health Science, Agricultural Education, Technology Engineering)

24

Graduates in high-demand program areas in state and SW regions

Percent of graduates who concentrated in high-demand program areas

Statewide: 18%
LWIA 11: 11% (Health Sciences) LWIA 12: 39% (Family & Consumer Services, Health Science) LWIA 13: 3% (Agricultural Education, Health Science, Technology Engineering)

Percent of high-demand jobs over the ten-year period (2006-2016) that could potentially be filled by 2008 graduates with relevant CTE concentrations:
6.1% statewide; 61% if multiplied by 10 student cohorts

25

Projected high-demand jobs (2006-2016) that could be filled by 2008 CTE graduates, by Tennessee region

The extent to which CTE graduates could meet workforce demands for high-demand jobs varies by region
Over 10% of projected high-demand jobs could be filled in regions 2, 7, 10, and 12 1.4% of projected high-demand jobs could be filled in region 13

26

Summary of key findings

27

Summary of key findings Southwest regions

High-wage and high-demand program areas in Southwest TN

Technology Engineering
Highwage

Region

Health Sciences
Highdemand

Family & Consumer Services

Highwage Highdemand

Business Technology
Highwage Highdemand

Agricultural Education Highwage

Highdemand

Highwage Highdemand

11 12 13

X X X X X

X X X X X X

28

Summary of key findings Southwest regions

11 12 13

Availability of program areas in Southwest TN

Technology Engineering Health Sciences Family & Consumer Services Business Technology Agricultural Education

Region

10% 0% 22%

88% 85% 79%

91% 100% 99%

64% 70% 84%

91% 93% 48%

29

Highlights Tennessee
Statewide, up to 41% of projected jobs (2006-16) in highwage occupations could be filled over the 10 year period if the number of concentrators in these program areas remains constant Statewide, up to 71% of projected jobs (2006-16) in highwage occupations could be filled over the 10 year period if the number of concentrators in these program areas remains constant Projections for both high-wage and high-demand occupations vary by region There are opportunities for high-wage jobs in all program areas for students with a bachelors degree or higher

30

Limitations

31

Key limitations
1. Data cant be linked to postsecondary enrollment
Many high-wage or high-demand careers require training beyond high school Students who attend college may not enter the labor market for several years may affect near-term estimates

2. Not all students will seek occupations in the same program area as their CTE concentration 3. Students without high school CTE concentrations may seek occupations related to CTE program areas 4. Students may move across regions or out-of-state

32

Key limitations
5. Occupational projections subject to uncertainty
Factors like new industries or new technology Wage data not available for all occupation in all regions

6. Wage classifications subject to uncertainty 7. Some occupations matched to multiple CTE program areas less precision in workforce projections 8. Wage classifications are not necessarily good measures of the impact of CTE programs on student earnings 9. CTE concentrators by program area may be overestimated
Graduates may have concentrations in multiple areas
33

Thank You
Christine Mokher, Ph.D.
mokherc@cna.org

C. Mokher (2011), Aligning Career and Technical Education with High-Wage and HighDemand Occupations in Tennessee (Issues & Answers Report, REL 2011No. 111) http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/edlabs/regions/appalachia/p df/REL_2011111.pdf

34

Tools to Help Educators Use Labor Market Data

Ms. Martha Wettemann Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Labor Market Information Division October 24, 2012

Tools to Help Educators Use Labor Market Data

1) Supply and Demand Analysis (SDA) Excel tool

2) Jobs4TN website

Supply and Demand Analysis (SDA) Excel

PART 1 SDA Excel

Purpose
Why did we develop SDA Excel? For whom?

Content
What information does SDA Excel contain?

Features and functions

What does the SDA Excel interface look like? How does it work? HANDOUT Directions for Use

SDA Excel

SDA Excel demonstration

Walk-through
HANDOUT Guided Exercise
Use the SDA Excel tool on your CD Follow the 6-step process outlined in SDA Excel Directions for Use handout to conduct a sample supply and demand analysis

BREAK

15

Hands-on Activity:

Exploring the Tennessee Supply and Demand Analysis Excel Tool

Dr. Shira Solomon CNA Education
16

Individual Exercise SDA Excel

1. Using the SDA Excel tool, select your own region and choice of Career Cluster. 2. Explore the data and share results. Record information you have found on the Individual Exercise Sheet.

Exploring the SDA Excel Tool

What is the demand for occupations associated with the CTE concentrations offered by your school or district? What are some of the in-demand occupations within your region? Do the in-demand occupations align with the CTE concentrations offered by your school or district?

18

Sharing Your Results

What CTE concentrations offered by your school or districts have the highest demand in your region?

What CTE concentrations offered by your school or districts have the lowest demand in your region?
What Career Clusters have the most in-demand occupations in your economics region? What Career Clusters are projected to be in demand in the next years in your economic region?

How does this differ from your previous knowledge?

19

Jobs4TN:
An Online Resource
https://www.jobs4tn.gov/

PART 2 Jobs4TN
Purpose
Why did we develop Jobs4TN? For whom?

Content
What information does Jobs4TN contain?

Features and functions

What does the Jobs4TN interface look like? How does it work?

https://www.jobs4tn.gov/
8

Jobs4TN Demonstration
Walk-through
Guiding questions:
What postsecondary training and education programs are available for the in-demand occupations in your region? What free online resources are available to provide information and training for these occupations? What financial aid is available for postsecondary training and education programs for these occupations? How many people are completing postsecondary education and training programs for these occupations?

10

Martha Wettemann - Contact

Phone: 615-253-6884

Email:
Martha.wettemann@tn.gov

Wrap-up and Next Steps

Did you gain new insights about the educational requirements, earnings, or demand of local jobs corresponding with the Career Clusters available to your students? Did the research and tools presented changed your understanding of the high-wage, high-skill, or in-demand occupations in your region or in Tennessee for the next 10 years? Did you learn new ways to obtain information about the local labor market?

How are you going to apply this information in practice?

22

Using Local Labor Market Data to Guide High School Students College and Career Preparation

Thank you for participating in this workshop! To make sure you get TASL credit, please fill out the Stakeholder Feedback Survey before you leave. Please let us know how REL Appalachia can continue to support you. Shira Solomon: solomons@cna.org

23

REL Appalachia Tools & Resources

Online Resources:
Website: Events information: IES REL Website: Monthly newsletter: www.RELAppalachia.org
www.RELAppalachia.org/news-events

http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/edlabs/ To received our newsletter, email: RELAppalachia@cna.org

(Subject: Subscribe)

24