Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday November 27, 2012

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday November 27, 2012

International Commodities
Overview
GfK German Consumer Climate declined to -5.9 levels in November
Last Prev day
-0.3

Market Highlights (% change)

as on 26 November, 2012

w-o-w
-1.2

m-o-m
-3.9

y-o-y
-6.6

Asian markets are trading on an upbeat note as European finance ministers were able to negotiate and agree on providing Greece aid. European Finance ministers have cut the interest rates and provided the nation more time to pay out their loans. They have also cleared a 34.4 billion Euros ($44.7 billion) loan installment in the month of December to Greece. The US Dollar Index (DX) swung between gains and losses and settled on a flat note. The index witnessed strength in the early part of the trade on the back of rise in the risk aversion amongst market participants as European finance ministers met to discuss on aid for Greece. Additionally, the worries of fiscal cliff issues of the US which has not been resolved yet also created bearish market sentiments. This increased the demand for the low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index (DX). US equities settled on a weak note on the back of bearish global market sentiments as worries of US cliff was seen dampening the sentiments as no resolution have been witnessed yet. The index touched a intra-day high of 80.31 and closed at 80.20 on Monday. The Indian Rupee continued to depreciate and settled 0.3 percent in yesterdays session on account of dollar demand from the oil importers and banks. Weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX also caused rupee to depreciate. Additionally, no agreement over the FDI norms in the winter session of the parliaments also led to depreciation in the rupee. However, sustained capital inflows from the foreign institutions capped sharp depreciation in the rupee. It touched a weekly low of 55.88 and closed at 55.63 on Monday. For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 6211.70 crores till 26th November 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. 99906.60 crores till 26th November 2012.

INR/$ (Spot)

55.63

$/Euro (Spot)

1.2972

0.0

1.3

0.3

-2.5

Dollar Index

80.20

0.0

-0.9

0.1

1.0

NIFTY

5635.9

0.2

1.2

-0.5

16.2

SENSEX

18537.0

0.2

1.1

-0.5

14.7

DJIA

12967.37

-0.3

1.3

-1.1

12.5

S&P

1406.3

-0.2

1.5

-1.9

21.0

Source: Reuters

The Euro swung between gains and losses and settled on a flat note in yesterdays session. The currency declined in the early part of the trade as no resolution was sought over the aid over Greece and as Spain refrained from seeking a bailout. Further, strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Additionally weak economic data from the region also added to the losses of the currency. The currency touched an intra-day low of 1.2942 and closed at 1.2972 on Monday. GfK German Consumer Climate declined to -5.9 levels in November as compared to 6.1 levels in the month of October.

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday November 27, 2012

Bullion Gold

International Commodities

Spot gold prices declined 0.2 percent in yesterdays session due to rise in the risk aversion in the global markets as investors became cautious as to when Greece might receive a bailout and no signs were visible over resolution of the fiscal cliff issue amongst US lawmakers. This increased the demand for the low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index (DX). Thereby strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) exerted a downside pressure on the gold prices The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $1,745.49 per ounce and closed at $ 1,748.59 per ounce on Monday. On the MCX, Gold December contract ended 0.2 percent higher due to depreciation in the Indian rupee. Gold prices on the MCX closed at Rs 32,359 /10 gms after touching a historical high of Rs. 32,464 / 10 gms in yesterdays session.

Market Highlights - Gold (% change)

Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot -Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (Dec12) MCX Gold (Dec12) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz
1749.5 -0.1 32400.0 1.1

as on 26 November, 2012 Prev day

-0.2

Last
1748.5

WoW
1.0

MoM
2.2

YoY
2.1

2.2

#N/A

12.7

1750.5

0.9

1.2

2.0

2.1

0.9

2.3

2.3

$/oz Rs /10 gms

32359.0 0.2 2.1 4.3 #N/A

Silver
Spot silver prices ended on a flat note in yesterdays session taking cues from weakness in the spot gold prices. Strength in the DX along with weak global market sentiments kept prices under pressure in most part of the trade yesterday. However, strength in the base metals pack cushioned sharp fall in the silver prices. The white metal touched an intra-day low of $33.88/oz and closed at $34.09/oz on Monday. In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices rose 0.3 percent and closed at Rs. 63,734/kg on Monday and touched a high of Rs. 64,142/kg. Depreciation in the Indian rupee supported an upside in the silver prices on MCX. Market Highlights - Silver (% change)
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Dec12) MCX Silver (Dec12) Unit $/oz
64430.0 1.9 #N/A

Source: Reuters

as on 26 November, 2012 WoW

3.1

Last
34.1

Prev day
0.0

MoM
6.4

YoY
6.5

7.0

14.8

Rs/1 kg
3408.0 2.0 4.3 7.6 6.5

$/oz
3413.8 0.1 2.9 6.6 6.2

$/ oz
63734.0 0.3 3.5 6.9 #N/A

Outlook
In todays session we expect precious metals to trade on a firm note due to firm global market sentiments as European Finance ministers were able to negotiate and agree on providing aid to Greece. Weakness in the DX is also expected to support an upside in the precious metals today. In the domestic markets appreciation in the Indian rupee will however cap sharp upside in the precious metals on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Dec12 Spot Silver MCX Silver Dec12 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for November 27, 2012 Support 1746/1738 32270/32140 34.05/33.82 63500/63100 Resistance 1753/1758 32420/32500 34.35/34.60

Rs / kg
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

64100/64500

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday November 27, 2012

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices declined 0.6 percent in yesterdays session. Concerns that Spain might not seek for a bailout along with continued debt issues of Greece with no resolution seen yet. This created bearish market sentiments. Additionally, the fiscal cliff issue in the US raised worries that demand might reduce. Strength in the DX also acted as a bearish factor for the crude oil prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day low of $87.27 bbl and closed at $87.79/bbl on Monday. On the domestic bourses, prices fell 0.1 percent and closed at Rs.4,901 per bbl after touching a low of Rs.4,869/bbl on Monday. Depreciation in the Indian rupee however, cushioned sharp fall in the crude prices on MCX. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Dec12) ICE Brent Crude (Dec12) MCX Crude (Dec12) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last
87.3 111.2 87.7

as on 26 November, 2012 WoW

-2.0 0.1 -1.7

Prev. day
#N/A -0.5 -0.6

MoM
1.7 1.5 1.7

YoY
-11.7 1.1 -10.7

$/bbl
110.9 -0.4 -0.7 1.3 1.8

$/bbl
4903.0 -0.1 -0.6 5.3 #N/A

Rs/bbl
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

as on26 November, 2012

Natural Gas
Nymex Natural Gas prices declined 0.6 percent in yesterdays session due to weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Prices touched an intra-day low of $3.841 mmbtu and closed at $3.876 mmbtu. In the domestic markets prices fell 3.93 percent tracking bearishness in the international prices. However, depreciation in the Indian rupee cushioned sharp fall in the natural gas prices on MCX.
Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Nov 12) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.876 207.6 Prev. day -0.64 -3.93 WoW 3.97 0.63 MoM 14.20 8.81 YoY 8.09 8.63

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Nymex Crude Oil

Outlook In the intra-day, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a firm note on the back of positive global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Agreement over Greece aid might ease concern that debt worries were causing hurdle to the economic recovery and dampening demand. In the domestic markets appreciation in the Indian rupee will exert downside pressure on the crude oil prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Nov 12 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for November 27, 2012 Support 87.60/86.85 4880/4840 Resistance 88.65/89.40 4940/4980

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart Nymex Natural Gas

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday November 27, 2012

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metal pack traded on a positive note on the back of expectations that the demand might increase in the coming days after observing positive housing and manufacturing data from US and Chinese economy. However, sharp gains were capped owing to worries over the fiscal cliff in US and continued concerns of the Euro zone region. Strength in the DX also capped sharp gains in the base metals prices In the Indian markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee acted as a supportive factor for the base metal prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Nov12) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum Rs /kg
110.4 1.4 2.3 7.7 #N/A

as on 26 November, 2012 WoW

0.1

Last
7787.0

Prev. day
0.1

MoM
-0.5

YoY
4.7

$/tonne

Rs/kg

433.7

0.6

1.6

2.0

#N/A

$/tonne

1994.5

0.8

0.9

3.6

-1.7

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metals complex gained 0.1 percent taking cues from positive housing sector and manufacturing data from US and China in the last week. Strength in the DX however, capped sharp gains in the copper prices. LME Copper inventories remained unchanged in yesterdays session. LME Copper stocks stood at 2,49,825 tonnes. The red metal closed at $7,787per tonne after touching an intra-day high of $7,795.25 per tonne on Monday. On the domestic front, prices rose 0.6 percent and closed at Rs. 433.65 per kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 434.3/kg taking cues from strength in the international prices along with depreciation in the Indian rupee. Outlook From the intraday perspective, base metal prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. With provision of aid to Greece, debt concerns of the Euro region might be eased. This might cause demand to improve gradually. Appreciation in the Rupee will however cap sharp gains in the base metal prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Nov12 MCX Zinc Nov12 MCX Lead Nov12 MCX Aluminum Nov12 MCX Nickel Nov12 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for November 26, 2012 Support 432/429 108.6/107.8 120.8/120 109.8/109 912/907 Resistance

(Nov12) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Nov12) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (Nov12) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Nov12)
Source: Reuters

$/tonne

16577.0

-0.3

1.0

3.3

-4.0

Rs /kg

918.9

-0.1

2.3

6.4

#N/A

$/tonne

2181.0

-0.9

-0.5

7.8

7.5

Rs /kg

121.5

-0.3

0.8

11.1

#N/A

$/tonne

1986.0

1.5

2.1

8.3

1.9

Rs /kg

109.4

1.5

3.7

12.6

#N/A

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 22nd November
249825 5177100 134546 1199050 361475

21st November
249825 5177425 133812 1200550 361525

Actual Change 0 -325 734 -1,500 -50

(%) Change 0.0 0.0 0.5 -0.1 0.0

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart MCX Copper

436/438 110/110.7 122.2/123 111/111.8 925/932

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday November 27, 2012

International Commodities
Important Events for Today

Indicator Revised GDP q/q Prelim Business Investment q/q FOMC Member Lockhart Speak Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Durable Goods Orders m/m Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence

Country GBP GBP US US US US US US

Time (IST) 3:00pm 3:00pm 5:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:30pm 8:30pm

Actual -

Forecast 1.0% 1.3%

Previous 1.0% 0.9%

Impact High Medium Medium

-0.6% -0.6%

2.0% 9.8%

High Medium Medium

2.9% 73.1

2.0% 72.2

Medium High

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