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TRANSFORM

GREAT PLANET
Theories of Earths demise
For centuries, scientists have pondered the fate of our planet. Catastrophic events have occurred in the past and will very likely happen again. How and when will the end for the earth occur? We explore the issue from the perspectives of our own backyard, our planet, and our place in the universe. Nation: Camping or Catastrophe
Lets say youre with camping with the family in Yellowstone National Park. You could be perched uncomfortably near the source of destruction for our country. The park is home to the Yellowstone Calderaa potential supervolcano. Calderas form when the land surrounding a volcano collapses after an eruption. The earths magma continues to percolate, however. When magma rises to the crust from hotspots below but is unable to break through fissures on the surface, a supervolcano can occur. Mounting pressure can result in a massive eruption, spewing magma and other ejected debris more than 60 miles from the point of origin. Such an eruption would devastate a large part of the continental U.S, says Peter Hudleston, professor of structural geology at the University of Minnesota. Enormous ash clouds produced by supervolcanoes pose an even bigger threat. The ash can block the sun, causing frigid temperatures and wiping out millions of species. A Yellowstone eruption would affect the climate, probably producing global cooling by putting large amounts of radiation-reflecting ash in the upper atmosphere, Hudleston says. Its possible that humans might not survive a really huge event, but Hudleston thinks the odds of life continuing on are good. Its unlikely that any foreseeable volcanic event would completely wipe out life on Earth, as the past events we know about did not do that.

DEATH OF A

World: Running a Fever

Global warming has long been considered a potential cause of death for our planet. Our best understanding is that we have already locked in major consequences for the way life is currently organized on the earth, says professor Lawrence Rudnick, an observational astrophysicist at the U of M. For the last 12 years, Rudnick has taught a Cosmic Catastrophes course, which explores threats to our planet and its inhabitants. My own fascination is with the key role played by catastrophic events for the evolution of life on earth, he says. Each major incidentfrom the formation of the moon to the extinction of dinosaurs to man-made catastropheshas had bearing on how we live. Those life-altering events continue. For example, he cites todays global warming and habitat destruction as key contributors to species extinction. Global warming changes precipitation patterns, which can cause devastating storms and hurricanes as the oceans rise in temperature, as well as the loss of crops and livestock from widespread drought. In fact, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg recently went on record blaming global warming for Hurricane Sandy. Though still controversial, a growing body of scientific research seems to indicate real and substantive changes to the climate. The American Geophysical Union claims the average surface temperatures have increased by about 0.6C from 1956 to 2006. And during a 12-year period from 1994 to 2006, 11 of those years were warmer than any others on record since 1850. The United States Environmental Protection Agency has published similar data. Since 1901, surface temperatures in the United States have risen at an average rate of 0.13F per decade across the lower 48 states. The globes average surface temperature has increased almost 1.5F during the 20th century. Two-thirds of this warming has occurred since 1975. On the ground evidence of global climate change comes in the form of diminished glaciers. Montanas Glacier National Park is currently home to 25 glaciers, down from 27 in 2010 and 150 in 1910. This current trend is not looking promising for the remaining glaciers.

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COSMOS WORLD NATION

Whether earths end comes from within, by human interference or from outer space, one thing is certain the planets health and well-being is inexorably tied to our own. There is no Cosmos: Crash, Bang, Boom? real way of knowing how our blue-andgreen home may die, but like so many things, living with this uncertainty is simply part of life.
HILARY BATTEY The year 2036 could be a devastating one, according to a National Aeronautics and Space Administration study. An asteroid named Apophis is predicted to pass near earth on April 13, 2029 (yes, this is a Friday). The earth will essentially deflect the asteroid, but not without effects: the near miss could change our orbit. Seven years later, when Apophis next heads toward our planet, it could collide with cataclysmic results. According to Rudnick, an asteroid must measure 50 to 100 km in size in order to wreak catastrophic destruction. NASA indicates that Apophis is only 240 m, or .270 km in size. Rudnick says at its current size, Apophis could inflict regional damage but probably would not produce global implications. Some scientists deem the probability of such a collision to be unlikely, while others scientists are seeking governmental assistance to prepare for this scenario. In 2006, experts on nearearth objects met in London to discuss the required technology necessary to deflect Apophis. Ideas ranged from rockets to satellites designed to nudge away any asteroid on a crash course with our little piece of the universe.

FALL 2012

The failed prediction of a flood destroying the Earth by leader Dorothy Martin of the UFO cult Brotherhood of Seven Rays, paved the way for the 1956 book When Prophecy Fails.

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1954

The classic and revolutionizing horror film Night of the Living Dead was released. The low-budget, independent film sparked five sequels and two remakes of the original. Currently it is the second most downloaded film on the Internet.

1968

The Jehovahs Witnesses predicted the world was going to end for the third time.

1984

The Rapture was supposed to happen three times during these two short years.

19871989

Author P.D. James published a novel titled Children of Men, in which the human race becomes infertile and the last generation born has reached adulthood. Humanity faces extinction. It was later adapted into a film in 2006.

1992

Harold Camping claimed the Rapture would happen this year. When it didnt happen he revised his date five more times.

1994

The first book in the Left Behind series was published. The series about Christian end times and the Rapture has a total of 16 books. The last installment was published in 2007.

1995

TRANSFORM

Ready, Prep, Go
A wide variety of survival essentials fuels todays commerce of catastrophes
Cosmic collisions, nuclear meltdowns, killer contagionsall could end life as we know it. Regardless of the scenario, a flood of concern about potential disasters is turning into revenue streams for survival products suppliers. Major events such as Hurricane Sandy, 9/11 and Japans earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis have spawned businessesand profitsrelated to preparedness. We did a years worth of sales in twoand-a-half weeks following the Japan disaster, says Paul Faust, co-founder of 1-800-PREPARE, an emergency products company. Another uptick in business occurred after Superstorm Sandy. This woke a lot of people up to preparedness, he says. While you may not know exactly which calamitous event could occur, you are guaranteed to find a wide array of survival essentials available for purchase.

Shelter: Your apocalyptic abode could be a crude

shelter or a suite in an elaborate underground community. More than 1.8 million YouTube viewers have gleaned DIY tips for converting a standard shipping container into a backyard bunker at cost of roughly $12,500. For $50,000 per person, more upscale accommodations are available from Terra Vivos. Founder Robert Vicino says his underground lodgings will provide food, water, clothing, fuel and furnishings for up to 1,000 people for a year. Plans also include wine cellars, hydroponic gardens and medical facilities. The shelters are designed to withstand pandemics, asteroid collisions, nuclear blasts, biological weapons and even temporary submersion in water. Vivos becomes a modern-day fortress where our members are safe, Vicino says. The company has received 25,000 applications for 6,000 planned spaces. Three facilities are currently underway, one each in Colorado, Indiana and Nebraska.

Computer-generated image of Vivos underground shelter shared lounge area. Image courtesy of TerraVivos.

water, sewage run-off, decayed plants and rabbit feces into his bottle. A few pumps of the device activate the nano-filtration process and out comes sterile drinking water. The $189 Lifesaver 6000 processes 6,000 liters of water. Personal protection: Weapons top the shopping lists of many people preparing for catastrophe. The Gerber Apocalypse Kit may bring to mind tiny containers of super-fortified peas. Wrong. Instead, $349 buys a pack of lethal-looking knives, machetes and hatchets from Oregon-based Gerber, a manufacturer of knives and outdoor gear. The companys website claims the kit will help mere mortals effectively battle zombiesor cut branches. Perhaps the most powerful tool for preparing for cataclysmic events is something money cant buy basic planning. Start thinking about preparedness, says Faust. Thats even more important than getting supplies. Although its a tough lesson, he hopes the Sandy disaster spurs readiness action: Use this to think about what Im going to do next time, because I guarantee theres going to be a next time. J.M. STENDER

Food: Foods boasting a 30-year shelf life are avail-

able to stock apocalyptic pantries. One food supplier, Auguson Farms, touts delivering delicious peace of mind through its long-lasting freeze-dried produce, dry bakery and dairy mixes, and flavored meat substitutes. A 30-day emergency kit for one person costs $99, while a four-person, one-year supply retails for $3,745.

Water: When Michael Pritchard, creator of the Life-

saver bottle, demonstrates his portable water filtration product, he pours a murky brew of scummy pond

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Selecting Against Disease

A genetically engineered future
Although we may not have control over the end of the world, genetic counseling and selection will give us power to manipulate the quality and extent of individual lives. In a recent British study, scientists were able to screen for a mutation called BRCA that significantly increases your chances of getting breast cancer. The risk goes from one in 12, for the average person, to seven in 10 for people with this mutation. Screening for and selecting against this mutation could help eliminate breast cancer in future family members who would otherwise carry the faulty mutation and its associated risks. Within the last 10 years, the use of the human genome enabled scientists of all fields to understand the human being in ways beyond our science fiction imaginations. Dr. Ronald Green, a Dartmouth College bioethicist, thinks genetics should be used to increase the quality of life, versus the longevity. He describes it like this: Picture a graph with an x-axis, depicting longevity, and the y-axis, representing the current quality of life. It will have a rising and descending hill, with the quality going down as you age. Green sees the graph of the future as a rectangle, where the quality of life stays the same until you die of old age. Its terrible to have a loss of personality, like Alzheimers and dementia, he says. Women shouldnt have to live lives with breast cancer. The ideal is that everyone should die with a good quality (of life) to the end. Beyond that, if its low quality, why extend it with greater longevity? Genetics is changing rapidly, but societys views havent caught up with the times. History has a way of staying with us. The term genetic selection brings back memories of eugenics, the Holocaust, and science fiction novels of the 1920s. These provoke images of mass exterminations in the quest to create the perfect human. The focus of genetics today is on making human life better and more optimal. Though we are far from living without disease, research indicates whats on the cusp: the completed cancer genome looks at what happens to tumors when they mutate; Cell Free Fetal DNA screens for genetic disease as early as seven weeks into pregnancy; reprogramming adult skin cells back into something called a pluripotent cell, or stem cells; and gender selection, just to name a few. Genetic research today is still in its infancy, says Marcy Darnovsky, associate executive director for the Center for Genetics and Society. It may still take decades to see physical applications of research presently being done. So when is it time to draw the hypothetical line between innovation and something out of an Aldous Huxley novel? I have no problem with preventing the births of people who have diseases that are fatal, Darnovsky says. Once you start moving into less serious diseases, or even things that dont have medical implications, I think its fair to call it eugenics. It leads to a world of greater inequality, thats a terrible idea and a dangerous idea.

1997
The video game Fallout was released for DOS/ Windows. The games plot follows a protagonist fighting to survive in the aftermath of a global nuclear war. The war started as nations fought for control over nonrenewable natural resources.

1997
Thirty-eight followers of Marshall Applewhite and his Heavens Gate cult committed mass suicide. They believed their souls were going to board a spacecraft and become above human.

1998
God was to appear on Channel 18 on every TV set in America after a 10 a.m. flight arrival on a flying saucer. He was also supposed to look exactly like The True Way Churchs leader Hon-Ming Chen.

URMILA RAMAKRISHNAN

Its terrible to have a loss of personality...

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