December 2012

MARKET PULSES
Junior Fellowship for Financial Literacy

Volume I, Issue 1

DECEMBER 2012 |

JFeL
FOUNDING MEMBERS
PRESIDENT Franco Imperial ASSET MANAGER Shaun Si CORPORATE FINANCE MANAGER Audrey Ng CORPORATE FINANCE MANAGER Macy Tayco FUND MANAGER Tenten Pineda INFORMATION SYSTEMS MANAGER Jaime Constantino INFORMATION SYSTEMS MANAGER Marco Echon PERSONAL FINANCE MANAGER Carlo Sarino PERSONAL FINANCE MANAGER Miguel Mapa
I welcome you all to this maiden issue of Market Pulses. This newsletter is published for us students who are interested in finance and in writing, to improve our financial literacy as we hone our craft. Some of us may find our niche in these seemingly opposite disciplines and eventually be read in the Economist, Financial Times, Business World and many more. This is for those who may find listening to a voice of a peer better in grasping business and financial matters. This is for us all. I hope that, in Market Pulses, we are able to inject youth into financial literacy. Let our writers thus never abandon fun and humor in these pages, and let our readers always find a voice in here as we stride towards our common vision of creating a nation of financially proficient citizens. Franco Imperial President

VISION
COVER SOURCE: http://www.pilkuservices.com/contact.html

The Junior Fellowship for Financial Literacy envisions a nation of financially proficient students

MISSION
The Junior Fellowship for Financial Literacy aims to (1) equip members, along with individuals within and beyond the Ateneo community, with sound financial skills; and (2) network with financial institutions and student-led organizations to create a cooperative environment for the exercise and enhancement of financial proficiency.

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CONTENTS
04 05 06 08 09 10 11
Consumer Spotlight Stocks: The Gambling Comparison The U.S. Fiscal Cliff The Lagarde Talk The Filipinos Thirst Beyond Sentiment Initial Spark

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CONSUMER SPOTLIGHT
Technically, the chart says a consolidation period could be in order, but the company still shows promising fundamentals. Consolidation is generally regarded as a period of indecision, in which the movement of an asset's price is within a well defined pattern in price levels. Universal Robina Corporation (URC) manufactures products such as: Chippy, C2, and Great Taste White Coffee. Sales of goods and services in URC's branded consumer foods group excluding the packaging division increased by 11.1% for the first three quarters of 2012, as compared to the same period of last year. Based on the graphs, it is presently experiencing a sharp uptrend and may come to a stop soon. A good entry point (price at which to buy) with high upside (potential for profit) would be around the range of PHP 68-70, assuming it reaches this level again in the coming months. The charts posted below and in the following page show a general uptrend, and investors could expect this to continue for the coming year, as long as the market cooperates. With the holiday season fast approaching, sales growth could be expected for both companies for the current quarter of 2012. With elections also just around the

Source: Bloomberg

he Philippines has always been known as a consumption based economy which could be attributed to the large amount of OFW remittances entering the Philippines. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is expecting a further increase of United States Dollar (USD) remittances entering the country this year. The problem the BSP is facing now however, is the appreciation of the value of the Philippine Peso (PHP) relative to the USD. Recent upgrades in investment grade of the country have been causing the appreciation of the Philippine

Peso, and at the same time attracting more foreign investments. However, Filipinos receiving USD remittances are receiving less PHP from conversion due to the strengthening local currency. WHY BUY CONSUMER? Two companies on which I will be focusing are Puregold Price Club, Inc. and Universal Robina Corporation. Puregold Price Club, Inc. (PGOLD) has been on track in opening new stores nationwide. Net profit has exhibited an increasing trend as well.

Source: COL Financial

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Source: COL Financial

...purchasing consumer stocks could yield higher gains.

corner, purchasing consumer stocks could yield higher gains, as increased sales could be generated from higher consumer expenditure. One thing that needs to be considered is the fluctuations of commodity prices, which could affect the margins of these companies. Apart from this, it is necessary to take into consideration the US Fiscal Cliff as well, seeing that this could have an effect on the amount on remittances sent to the Philippines from the United States. Overall, the consumption sector

would be a great investment opportunity with all the pieces falling into place. Consumer stocks should be seen as a defensive opportunity for investor's portfolios, as around 70% of the Philippine economy revolves around consumption, based on research by Credit-Suisse. MP - Carlo Sarino Personal Finance Manager Data gathered: 20 Nov 2012

STOCKS: THE GAMBLING COMPARISON

ometime during the first week of class, I was chatting with a friend who was already trading in the stock market. He mentioned that trading is quite risky, even for seasoned veterans. An acquaintance of his had apparently just lost a ton of money, simply because that friend made the mistake of taking a nice hot shower instead of keeping his eyes glued onto the screen of his laptop, watching for the movements of his high risk investments. Stories like that would be scary for just about anyone, including myself. As such we have to ask: Is stock trading gambling? Try looking up stocks and gambling on the internet and youll come across a lot of people running financial literacy blogs and fora giving their two cents about the issue. What youll find is

that a lot of people have identified this comparison as one of the biggest stock market myths. Especially with stories such as the one my friend told me, stock trading does conjure up an image of high stakes cutthroat gambling on a huge scale, much like professional Texas Hold Em, only without the crowds, the lights, and the televised drama. Stock market investing also does not allow you to see the other players on the table, which means strategies that involve reading the other players faces or mastering the perfect poker face will definitely not help. The most familiar similarity of stock investing and gambling is the fact that you can either gain or lose money in both ventures. By investing or gambling, you are simply risking

your money due to uncertain outcomes. That, however, is the extent of the similarities. Gambling is a fairly straightforward concept. It takes money from losers and then gives it to the lucky winners. For every peso you gain from winning a round of poker, someone else loses. Its a one to one correspondence. Investing in the stock market on the other hand is simply putting money into the hands of people who have good uses for it. As you gain income regularly, or for most of us, get allowance, you would typically spend it on your needs and wants. Not all of the money goes into buying frappes for the latest Starbucks planner, nor is the money spent on the newest PS3 games. Depending on how thrifty you are

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and how much allowance you get, you are bound to find yourself with some money left even after all your expenses. This leftover money can be put in a bank, or it can be invested in other financial vehicles such as stocks. Either way, the money you decide to place is put to use for every conceivable thing you can think of, from being used to fund the construction of a hospital in Africa, to acquiring the materials needed to build an awesome new amusement park near you. The money, instead of sitting idly in your piggy bank, may be used to create wealth if these companies that use your money are successful. Instead of only benefiting winners, the wealth that is created when you invest in stocks can benefit the public at large. Another thing to note is that by investing in a stock of a company, you are actually buying entitlement to that companys assets and a tiny portion of that companys future profits as well. In other words, buying stocks of a company technically makes you an owner! Now before you get excited by thoughts of being able to say, Im part owner of SM! know that as part-owner, you are also vulnerable to its losses. This is why you can either gain or lose from investing in stocks. Intuitively, you can see why stock investing is risky, just like gambling. Its difficult to know and predict which companies are going to successful with their endeavors. The market is a dynamic entity. Outcomes and business outlooks can change very quickly. This is why a lot of people, especially students like us are afraid to dabble in stocks. Fortunately, there are methods that can allow you to discern market conditions and so be able to invest in the right stocks, at the right times. Then again, just like everything worthwhile, it takes effort to master. So, in stock investing and trading, you have to do your homework (Wala ka talagang takas sa homework!). Exert yourself and learn the ropes. Learn with other like-minded people (hint: Jfellows) so that you can overcome your fears! MP - Nic Rabang Contributor

Source: http://www.jamesfike.com/2012/04/27/panther-beach-2/

THE U.S. FISCAL CLIFF

I
f you were to browse through Bloomberg.com or any other news medium, you probably might have come across much buzz concerning the US fiscal cliff. Whether you want to be in-the-know with regards to major global news, or you simply wish to impress your girlfriends parents, it is important to have an idea of what the fiscal cliff is, considering that it may pose significant effects on our economy.

What is the US fiscal cliff? It entails both the expiration of tax cuts and mandatory spending cuts scheduled to take place on January 1. In the years 2001 and 2003, President Bush and US congress signed a legislation moving for tax reforms involving certain tax cuts. These tax cuts however were de-

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signed to expire at the end of 2010 as a means of conforming to the budget. They were not made permanent. By 2010, expiration of these tax cuts was postponed by another two years thereby resetting the date to January 1, 2013. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the federal agency within the legislative branch of the US government responsible for providing economic data to congress, federal taxes will increase by $221 billion dollars when these tax cuts expire. Apart from this, a two year payroll tax originally passed in 2010 which reduced taxes on working Americans by 2% is also set to expire this coming 1st of January. It is estimated to increase taxes by an additional $95 billion next year. With regards to spending cuts necessary to meet the budget, $85 billion will automatically be eliminated $32 billion from military spending and $53 billion from education, health care, law enforcement and other social programs. Democrats

and Republicans came to a compromise last year in scheduling the automatic cuts as a means of settling a dispute regarding the governments borrowing authority which was threatening to send the US into default. All in all, the spending cuts and the higher taxes will result to $671 billion being sliced out of the American economy come next year. What are the consequences if the fiscal cliff takes place next year? Though it would narrow the federal budget deficit which is now $1.1 trillion, it would pose a devastating effect to the US economy which had barely rebounded from the last recession. Americans would have less money to spend. The CBO even predicts that the fiscal cliff would catapult the US economy into a recession. Unemployment rate could be spiked to more than 9%. Unless payroll tax cuts are implemented again, Americans will have their paychecks diminished by higher taxes. On top of this, beneficiaries of certain social programs covering education and health care among

others will be forced to spend more, even after having their incomes sapped away by the increased taxes. What are the fiscal cliffs implications on the Philippine economy? Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, in her youth talk held last Friday put emphasis on how important interconnectivity is at an international scale. Events in certain countries will always pose effects on others. In light of the US fiscal cliff, the Philippines is at risk of losing one of its biggest export clients. According to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, the Philippines ranks as the United States 38th largest supplier of goods as of 2011. In 2011, Philippine goods exported to the US totaled $9.1 billion, these goods including electrical machinery, machinery, knit apparel, fats and oils and woven apparel among others. MP - Jaime Marfori Contributor

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THE LAGARDE TALK

ertainly a rockstar in her own right, Christine Lagarde is the 8th most powerful woman in the world according to Forbes magazine. In her latest visit to the Philippines, Ms. Lagarde spoke in front of a young and enthusiastic crowd at the Asian Institute of Management in Makati City. The talk was entitled "Policy Challenges in the World of Interconnections"; a fitting topic in today's globalized world. Ms. Lagarde provided quite a number of insights to the audience. She expressed her ideas in three main points. Firstly, she described the underestimated accelerator and contaminator factor. Secondly, the policies that advanced economies must adapt and prioritize. Lastly, she spoke about what Asia must do to achieve its potential. Being the lawyer that she is, her eloquence made things much easier to understand. When she talked about this accelerator and contaminator factor, she revealed this factor to be that of super fast connectivity. She addressed this by asking the audience who did NOT own a cell phone. The lack of movement led her to jokingly remark that it was a confirmation of how the increase rate in cell phone users was 112% in the country. She then took time to explain precisely the density of Asia's network and how much potential the region has to affect the world economy. The density of networks in Asia shows that interconnection between countries surrounding the Philippines as well as around the globe. It is through this interconnection, also, that interdependency is also clearly seen; where a decreased demand in the USA, for example, may affect manufacturing in China, Cambodia and even the Philippines simply because the value chain is distributed internationally. She ended her first point by advising everyone to embrace this intercon-

nection with all its challenges and threats. It is through accepting this reality, she says, that people will be able to cope with 'super fast connectivity' and make strengths and opportunities out of it. Moving on to her next point, Ms. Lagarde evidently spoke from experience. She targeted the policy makers in the country, stressing their importance in any economy's development. She gave figures that showed the Philippines' current unemployment situation. According to these figures, the country is at 17% unemployment amounting to a total of about 17 million people, 7 million of which are considered young workers like us. She found this quite alarming, especially because the economy is supposed to be picking up. This then led her to attribute this to the problem of income inequality, that only the rich are gaining wealth. To conclude her second point Lagarde alluded to her first point by saying that policies must be appropriate with the times. As examples, she used the USA and the EU. Both governments want to maintain financial stability and sustainability. Today, however, there are certain obstacles that hinder them from achieving their goal. For each of these governments, the nature of the obstacle differs. Lagarde advised these governments to align their policies according to the obstacles they wish to eliminate and implement these policies effectively. On her last point, she gave her insights on how Asia could reach its potential. In her opinion, it was the alignment of policies to target financial stability, the integration of national economies through mutual investment, and better governance through the limitation or complete eradication of corruption that will help Asia realize its potential. Lagarde ended her speech with

facts such as the GDP of Asia comprising 30% of the world GDP. This is a big jump from the 10% share Asia had only a decade ago. She also said that the growth of the economies in Asia would constantly be 2% higher than that of the world average for the next few years. At that point, she effectively declared that Asia and Philippines in particular will be the place to make investments, start businesses and make a profit. It makes these times, for us, very exciting. Her challenge for the audience was to do their part in making all these ideals possible. Because then again, we are that generation this great fortune has landed on. It is up to our generation to make the most out of this wonderful opportunity. It is in our own hands to make this time in our lives a big part of financial history. MP - Mico Clavano Contributor

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Source: http://www.imf.org/external/np/omd/bios/cl.htm

THE FILIPINOS THIRST

on a national medium wage for a Filipino to afford 500mL of beer alone. Now, imagine an ordinary middle-aged Filipino father working 8 hours in a day and going out to unwind with his friends after dinner. He promises to drink one beer, and ends up downing five because its cheap and accessible. He just used up more than 3 hours of work compared to an American who only loses close to 25 minutes with the same amount of intake even with a higher price of its beer. India is the only country toiling more than the Philippines with more than 50 minutes of work for every 500mL of beer, citing low wages and high tariffs on imported alcohol with the absence of a free trade agreement with the European Union (EU). But for the Filipino, low wages do not seem to hamper habits on drinking and perhaps other habits for that matter. The demand for these products has become inelastic in varying levels regardless if youre living in Forbes or in poverty. This might mean drinking just as much when Pacquiao wins or loses a fight. Or giving a toast to various fiestas and holidays within the month. It might be something more intimate such as celebrating happy hour with the barkada on the street almost everyday. The social cost now becomes more than just a health concern, but an unyielding society with priorities that are still questionable. And while not enough data has been conducted on negative effects such as alcoholism and substance abuse in the country, citing accessibility as the only reason for externalities to have occurred seems lacking to me as an individual. We will always have buyers who will consume alcohol and cigarettes at any price. MP - Melissa Mariel Yu Contributor

Source: The Economist

ilipinos have created a society that is bindingly loyal to one of the most lucrative essentials today: beer. Even in 2012, San Miguel Brewery Inc. enjoyed a 3% growth on its products from last year, garnering a total of 164 million cases of beer sold. And while these corporations continue to enjoy strong revenue growth, the senates ongoing push for the implementation of the sin tax billwhich presses for a revision of the excise tax rate of alcohol among other sin productshas raised the main issue of the lax accessibility on these items. Upon skimming the surface, blaming the low price of Red Horse consequently causing me to endlessly buy it during a night out might seem sound. However seeing as I belong

to a private university filled with middle to upper middle-class students, dubbing the price of beer as low becomes largely problematic, simply because 1) I do not represent the majority of the Filipino people and 2) I dont even use my own money to support my alcohol intake; I dont work yet! However, as alcohol consumerism has become such a widespread national issue regardless of socioeconomic status, my question becomes: is it really that accessible in the first place, or do we just really love our beer too much? In fact, a recent chart posted by the Economist with information provided from analysts of UBS, a Swiss bank, on the relationship of labor and beer in different countries, shows that it takes close to 40 minutes of labor

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BEYOND SENTIMENT
Trading Smartly in the Smartphone Industry
bout a year ago, I remember tweeting and ranting about the BBM network like never before. Being on my JTA semester in France, my communication practically depended on BBM, considering the heavy charges that European phone providers charged for text messaging. If you have been following the Blackberry story during the past year, you could probably pinpoint this huge network crash for a couple of days as a big tipping point, one which had a very steep and slippery slope waiting on the other side. I mean, personally it isnt too bad, being BBM-less for 2 days as I remember. But I guess this showed a flaw, for a company aiming to be the top handset choice and communication system of majority of the enterprise sector. After this said event, challenges endlessly started to pile up. Aside from the network problems, you had the release of the iPhone 4S, and just recently, the iPhone 5. We also see the Android phones gaining much market share as well, having some great innovations themselves. More and more people have started to hold the Samsungs and HTCs, which created a more complicated and competitive battlefield in the consumer market. The problematic past few months of Blackberry have seen many people making various switches to other handsets. Although the switch as they called it, is what almost everyone did drop the berries and grab the apples. The tragedy may be easily summarized. It was about all these controversial network problems being experienced with the Blackberry smartphones coupled with the intense competition being battled out in the smartphone consumer market, which Blackberry was not able to keep up with. As expected, there was no way you could get DrawSome-

thing on your Bold9800, nor could you get Temple Run on your Torch! So now with all this, you have a stock price that plunges devastatingly. Within the last year, shareholders have seen Research in Motion Ltd. Stock (RIMM), the stock of the company behind Blackberry, give a 49.42% loss on investment. Even worse, imagine people who bought RIMM stock on June 16, 2008 when RIMM was flying high at $144.56, had they stayed on the ride, they would have now lost more than 93% of their investment. Despite this one-sided story being so easy to understand for an average trader, there is and was something worth looking into here, which is the point of this article. RIMM stock caught my eye just about when it dropped to single digits in terms of stock price. From then on all I could do was really imagine its stock price going bust at that point all the way down, as thats just how bad it seemed in the market. The thing is, what is a stock price, really? A stock price is a price determined by the forces of demand in supply in the stock market. In no way is a stock price a tag saying how much the ownership of one share in a company intrinsically is worth - and thats why we trade the mysterious stock market as we all have different guesses of what the price should REALLY be. So that maybe even if it did go all the way down, there is no assurance that the stock was actually worth that much the stock could have then been undervalued for being priced too low or maybe still even overvalued for still being too high. This is easy to say but difficult to keep in mind when you are drowned in the stock market world, which is predominantly governed by the idea of prices, clouding the sim-

ple concepts at play. At the time I was closely monitoring RIMM with some friends, I saw the stock drop further. From a stock that used to trade above $100 easily, it was now going $9-8, $8-7, and just a few months ago at $6-7/share mark. All I could really think about at this point was damn, these guys are screwed. Blackberry was looking so bad in the public scene that RIMM stock looked like things could never reverse. It was only at this time that something became noticeable. Remember how our accounting teachers time and time again defined for us what book value/share meant in simple and memorable terms? From what I remember they mentioned that the company closes down and it pays for all its liabilities by liquidating its assets, the money remaining is what is divided and paid out to shareholders. In a sense, that could be the fair and conservative way of finding the value of a share at the least. But the thing is, most stocks trade above book value because obviously book value dictates some sort of intrinsic value on paper but market sentiment and future cash flow projections come in and are responsible for the higher price or Market Value (price it is traded at) of the stock. So with that in mind, applied to the RIMM case, the ballpark figure from computation to be paid to every shareholder was $10. So if you have a stock you can buy at $6, but it should easily go for 10$ book value, what do you have? You have a near arbitrage. Arbitrage is making money off price discrepancies while assuming very minimal or close to no risk. Buying the stock at 6$, our risk is the company could default. But think about it. If it does, we are more than satisfied if not rejoicing, by earning 66% on our investment if they were to close up and pay out. Arbitrage

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indeed. (Lets say things werent valued properly and +/- $2 should be added for cushion. Still, a great trade at 33% gain!) So when you see something below book value, it should at least catch your eye as a trader! What can be seen here is how market sentiment can really cloud the stock market. For a normal trader, it would definitely be a sell right away. Heck, why would I want to be part of a sinking ship that everyone can see on CNN? The thing here is that we must look at the bigger picture and rationalize. But who are trading RIMM stock? For the more evident part its the people who follow the barrage that RIMM is receiving in terms of media and sales volumes. Also at play are the managers of giant hedge funds and pension funds (funds who manage billions of dollars in savings or pension). People who manage billions of dollars do usually succumb to what can be called headline trading, which is

trading immediately based on news headlines. Get this, I learned in Paris that a major pension fund highly invested in Boeing the aircraft manufacturer has computers running 24/7, searching the words Boeing and crash and can sell all Boeing stock within milliseconds of finding any match of those words on the net! Thats how these big funds work. Wanting to be safe at all times, they cant afford to go through the details of the news. So, with the size of holdings they have, tension is high and if these funds were holding RIMM stock, hitting the immediate sell as the panic button was an inevitable move. For every cent the stock loses on price, these hedge funds are losing in the millions of dollars, something they would cut loss (sell shares and exit position to avoid potential further loss) at. Therefore when these big guys sell, with the massive volume of shares they have, they could move the price down at a much faster pace cause supply all of a sudden is massive.

My aim here is NOT to recommend RIMM as a buy. Not at allit is still at a risky stage no matter what anyone says. My aim was to cite the opportunity presented a few months back when it reached $6-7, with the goal of proving my main point: that this near arbitrage opportunity proved that the stock market is not always efficient and at times is not as rational as it could be and this provides us opportunities to make good trades if we are creative, unique, and if we see beyond sentiment! You may have traded in your Blackberry for an iPhone, but in the world of investment, its a whole different story. Think like an investor, not a consumer. Youre in the market to make the bucks, not to choose a product. At the time of the writing of this article, RIMM is at $9.90. So yeah, the opportunity indeed paid dividends. MP - Miguel Mapa Personal Finance Manager

INITIAL SPARK
ome of you may already know the genesis of the organization. But, it is better perhaps that I briefly go back to it for the benefit of those who do not know it yet and for the rest of us to glimpse again the initial spark that began the growing fire in our organization. It is also fitting that a document on the origins of our organization should be included, for posteritys sake, in the first official publication of the organization. The original vision of JFeL was this book club type of group where students would meet once a week to talk about the business environment and its effect on certain stocks. We, the founders, imagined ourselves hanging out in one of the members veranda or sala, one afternoon or Sunday morning every week, to try to

make sense together these matters over coffee or tea. In the Stocks Club that we imagined, for example, we talk about a common Bloomberg or Business World article. Only because it interests us. We thought that the club could be great way to chill, relax and at the same time, educate ourselves, raise our awareness and learn more about the financial environment. The idea came to us after we realized that a lot of us were actually interested in these types of things but we only did not have the venue to learn more from or simply have friends to converse about these things with. When we came together, we realized that the club had the potential of becoming an organization. The organization would be specializing in stocks and its technicalities, and

would provide venue for the discussion and learning about it. The scope of the organization would extend to other financial securities but the focus would be on stocks since no organization in Ateneo had been specializing solely on this. But, then, we further realized that it had not only been stocks literacy that had been overlooked in the Ateneo but financial literacy, in general, as well. Until JFeL came into existence, financial literacy in the Ateneo and provisions of venues for it outside of the classrooms had not been as urgent. LITTLE FIRE After its initial spark, JFeL is now on its sixth month. It has attracted over 200 students of the Ateneo, as has been the original intent, from

DECEMBER 2012 | 11

courses as diverse as Philosophy to Applied Mathematical Finance. It has also attracted the attention of JCFAP (Junior Confederation of Finance Associations), the umbrella organization for student finance organizations in the Philippines, under which JFeL is now already affiliated. Despite its youth and current status as an independent organization, JFeL has already been guided by the Ateneo de Manilas John Gokongwei School of Management under its wings. Led by only nine officers during the first semester of the current school

year, JFeL has already implemented four successful projects beginning with the first talk, in the Ateneo, on the basics of online trading, from the opening of account to the actual trading. The current semester opened auspiciously for JFeL with three projects in three consecutive weeks: the field trip to the Asian Institute of Management, in partnership with AEA (Ateneo Economics Association), to hear and meet with the International Monetary Fund Director, Christine Lagarde; the start of Money Matters: Conversations over Coffee, the Book Club, and the SunLife talk on

insurance and personal finance for students and staff. Many more projects are to be expected in the coming weeks as JFeL has been tapped to partner on the Ateneo Placement Exposure Series (APEX) on Finance with the Loyola Schools Office Placement and on the Finance 102/103 Tutoring program with the Sanggunian ng mga Paaralang Loyola ng Ateneo de Manila. JFeL is starting a fire, it is still small but it will definitely grow more. MP - Franco Imperial President

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