DOWNGRADED HURDLERS SYSTEM

This system involves certain hurdlers which have been dropped in class. It
has perhaps more rules than I care for a system to have, but all of them are
logical and the result is a set of rules that has produced a level stakes profit for
each of the last eleven seasons.
Firstly well look at the stats for all hurdlers which have been dropped in
class over the last four seasons..

YEAR

WINS

RUNS

STRIKE%

LSP

LSP%

VSP%

2000
436
4208
10.36
-1233.89
-29.32
-13.52
2001
530
5098
10.40
-1529.77
-30.01
-10.72
2002
549
4985
11.01
-1424.30
-28.57
-9.27
2003
564
5028
11.22
-1074.07
-21.36
-10.16
____________________________________________________________
2079

19319

10.76

-5262.03

-27.24

-10.76

Now, if we look closely at the stats broken down by SP, we can see that
as you would expect, the longer the SP the lower the strike rate.
CATEGORY
< 1/2
1/2 - 20/21
1/1 - 11/8
6/4 - 15/8
2/1 - 7/2
4/1 - 15/2
8/1 - 15/1
16/1 - 31/1
32/1 - 63/1
64/1+

WINS

RUNS

STRIKE%

103
195
128
129
480
577
331
104
25
7

143
369
276
383
1953
3882
4752
3660
2589
1312

72.03
52.85
46.38
33.68
24.58
14.86
6.97
2.84
0.97
0.53

LSP

LSP%

VSP%

-8.25
-37.13
6.20
-37.76
-134.09
-189.00
-928.00
-1506.00
-1633.00
-795.00

-5.77
-10.06
2.25
-9.86
-6.87
-4.87
-19.53
-41.15
-63.07
-60.59

-7.02
-9.12
1.34
-9.61
-6.31
-4.48
-19.19
-41.17
-61.45
-55.99

As can be seen, The LSP% is quite acceptable until we go past the 4/1
15/2 range, then the losses are considerable. The runners that are sent off with
an SP between 33/1 and 50/1 have a less than 1% strike rate, which means their
true odds is over 100/1. Clearly the SP group to concentrate on is those sent off
at shorter than 8/1.
Splitting these results into handicap and non-handicap categories, we can
clearly see that the non-handicaps is the more profitable area, so this is the
group we shall concentrate on..

CATEGORY
handicap races
non-handicap races

WINS

RUNS

STRIKE%

368
209

2598
1284

14.16
16.28

LSP

LSP%

VSP%

-219.50
30.50

-8.45
2.38

-8.38
3.24

The next area well look at is the gender of the qualifiers. Its amazing how
a system can often be greatly improved by concentrating solely on one sex, and
in this instance its the males who outperform their fairer counterparts
CATEGORY

WINS

RUNS

STRIKE%

mare
filly
colt
horse
gelding

46
31
20
36
444

393
282
86
252
2868

11.70
10.99
23.26
14.29
15.48

LSP

LSP%

VSP%

-96.00
-85.00
49.50
-28.50
-28.00

-24.43
-30.14
57.56
-11.31
-0.98

-24.22
-29.11
50.12
-8.99
-0.56

It goes without saying that the female runners should be ignored here.
Finally, we look more closely at the actual weight change of the qualifiers
from their last outing..
CATEGORY
down > 14 lbs
down 9 - 14 lbs
down 5 - 8 lbs
down 1 - 4 lbs
no change
up 1 - 4 lbs
up 5 - 8 lbs
up 9 - 14 lbs
up 15 - 20 lbs
up 21+ lbs

WINS

RUNS

7
30
75
159
113
177
116
60
36
5

16
110
228
583
432
619
353
191
73
25

STRIKE%
43.75
27.27
32.89
27.27
26.16
28.59
32.86
31.41
49.32
20.00

LSP

LSP%

VSP%

2.78
-12.36
19.24
-32.73
-48.10
0.36
6.09
15.97
68.43
-8.33

17.38
-11.24
8.44
-5.61
-11.13
0.06
1.73
8.36
93.74
-33.32

13.05
-7.49
15.32
-10.53
-6.23
-0.20
-12.63
-2.66
50.61
-52.24

Those runners who were allotted more weight than on their last run
performed better than the other runners, suggesting that in this case class
overrides the weight element. The most profitable area is clearly a weight rise of
between 15 and 20 lbs.
So the rules are..
1)
2)
3)
4)

Non-handicap hurdles only

SP must be less than 8/1
Horse must be down in class
Male horses only

5) Horse must be carrying between 15 and 20 lbs more than on their last
outing
YEAR

WINS

RUNS

STRIKE%

LSP

LSP%

VSP%

2000
12
15
80.00
38.92
259.47
149.34
2001
7
23
30.43
1.58
6.87
8.42
2002
8
16
50.00
11.97
74.81
29.57
2003
9
19
47.37
15.96
84.00
49.37
____________________________________________________________
36

73

49.32

68.43

Date

Cse

RcTyp

Horse

16/07/00
17/07/00
05/08/00
12/08/00
26/08/00
17/10/00
17/10/00
17/10/00
11/11/00
27/11/00
06/01/01
08/01/01
24/02/01
31/03/01
21/05/01

STR
WOL
WOR
STR
WOR
DEV
DEV
DEV
AYR
KEL
UTT
FAK
HAY
HAY
HUN

H46VS
H4+I
H4+S
H4+I
H4+M
H4+BV
H4+BV
H4+V
H3V
H4+BM
H4+S
H4+V
H5+
H4+V
H4+

PETUNTSE
TORY BOY
GEE BEE BOY
ALPINE PANTHER
BERING GIFTS
TORDUFF EXPRESS
FLAKED OATS
REIZIGER
SPIRIT OF PARK
EBINZAYD
BULLENS BAY
SPUNKIE
BRING SWEETS
TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN
BERING GIFTS

29/07/01
06/08/01
06/08/01
11/08/01
24/08/01
01/12/01
18/12/01
19/12/01
14/01/02
11/03/02
26/03/02
30/03/02
01/04/02
02/04/02
08/04/02
16/04/02
19/04/02

NWT
NWT
NWT
STR
FON
HAY
HER
NBY
PLU
PLU
KEL
PLU
MAR
WAR
KEL
NCL
AYR

H4+(0
H4+I
H4+V
H4+I
H4+S
H4+I
H4+OS
H4+
H4+V
H5+V
H4+V
H4+(0
H5+V
H4+V
H4+V
H4+VI
H5+V

DIVORCE ACTION
PATELEY
MAJOR LANDO
TAM O'SHANTER
ARCTIC BURNER
SUPERIOR RISK
DRAKESTONE
ROB LEACH
HAWADETH
HURRICANE PETE
BAHAMAS
SMOOTH SAILING
TEE-JAY
BONUS BRIDGE
MYTIMIE
RAW SILK
MARAGUN

93.74

Position

SP

1
5
1
2
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

2
2.75
5.5
4
2.5
5
5
1.88
0.33
1.63
2.75
3.33
7.5
4.5
5

3
7
1
2
5
1
2
2
1
2
12
1
8
4
17
1
4

0.8
2.25
0.33
5.5
5.5
4
5.5
3.33
4
4
1.75
3
1.75
3
2
3
3.33

50.61

20/04/02
25/04/02
26/04/02
27/04/02
27/04/02
03/05/02

BAN
PER
SAN
SAN
SED
SED

H4+V
H5+V
H4+
H4+
H4+OV
H4+M

BEAVER LODGE
SURPRISING
INTERSKY FALCON
SUDDEN SHOCK
BROOKLYN'S GOLD
FROM LITTLE ACORNS

30/06/02
04/08/02
26/08/02
26/08/02
29/01/03
01/02/03
08/02/03
06/03/03
15/03/03
17/03/03
24/03/03
01/04/03
16/04/03
01/05/03
21/05/03
22/05/03

UTT
MAR
SOU
FON
LEI
UTT
NBY
CAR
UTT
WET
TAU
NCL
CHL
HER
KEL
KEL

H4+M
H4+V
H4+I
H4+I
H4+VI
H4+VS
H5+V
H4+OI
H4+V
H4+V
H4V
H4+VI
H4+V
H4+M
H4+
H4+

MR FLUFFY
SUN KING
HAPPY HUSSAR
OCEAN LINE
KINGSTON BILL
ROMAN KING
JABOUNE
HUGO DE PERRO
TAILLEFER
FLORRIES SON
FAST MIX
MISTER CHISUM
GRAVE DOUBTS
CLEVER THYNE
TRAMANTANO
LAOUEN

03/08/03
25/08/03
03/09/03
13/09/03
23/10/03
28/10/03
22/11/03
28/11/03
20/12/03
07/01/04
26/01/04
12/02/04
23/02/04
04/03/04
13/03/04
19/03/04
10/04/04
13/04/04
01/05/04

MAR
FON
NWT
WOR
HAY
CHL
CAT
AYR
WAR
HER
WET
HUN
CAR
LUD
SAN
WAR
CAR
CHP
SOU

H4+V
H4+I
H47S
H4+M
H47V
H4+M
H3VI
H4+OI
H4+V
H4+(0
H5+BV
H4+I
H4+V
H4+V
H4+V
H4+I
H4+V
H4+M
H4+S

DON'T SIOUX ME
BRADY BOYS
LINUS
KAIKOVRA
ATTICUS FINCH
ORACLE DES MOTTES
MAUNBY ROCKER
BIRKDALE
TOM'S PRIZE
SOUTHERNDOWN
QUAINTON HILLS
SHARPATEN
JOES EDGE
KING SOLOMON
DISTANT THUNDER
OULTON BROAD
MOONLIT HARBOUR
ILABON
NORDIC PRINCE

1
1
2
2
2
3

1.75
1.5
3
5.5
6
3.5

1
2
2
1
5
1
3
1
3
1
2
1
10
1
2
1

0.5
0.73
4.5
1.88
7
2.25
2.75
0.67
4
0.67
0.57
6
5
6.5
3.5
1.5

1
2
1
2
2
2
1
3
2
2
7
4
1
2
1
1
1
1
1

1.38
5.5
6.5
5.5
2.25
2
5
2.75
0.91
7
6.5
4
1.25
1.75
3
4.5
2
0.33
2