Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Brief: ASEAN and the South China Sea: Lessons Learned? Carlyle A. Thayer November 20, 2012

[client name deleted] We are currently working on a piece on the development of a code of conduct on the South China Sea. Bearing in mind events at the ASEAN summits in Phnom Penh this week, could you provide your assessment of the following? - Is a COC on the South China Sea stalled indefinitely? How will ASEAN and China proceed with a COC from here? ANSWER Yes the new time frame that is emerging is 2015 at the earliest. They will dillydally over implementing the DOC. - Yesterday the Philippines said President Benigno Aquino indicated at the ASEAN Retreat that while they were for ASEAN unity, the Philippines had "the inherent right to defend its national interest when deemed necessary" . The Philippines said this was in response to a characterisation by a Cambodian official that ASEAN did not want to "internationalize" the South China Sea issue. Do you think the fault lines that were apparent in July among certain member states are still playing out? If so, how will this affect progress on a COC? - Has ASEAN learned from the breakdown at the July summits over the South China Sea issue? Do you think China overplayed its hand at those summits? - What do the events and discussions this year on the South China Sea and the COC reveal about ASEAN's ability to tackle complex political/security issues in the region? ANSWER: Cambodia is on one side of the fault line and yet it is playing a spoiling role. ASEAN disunity has been exposed once again to the detriment of ASEAN's image. This episode make the creation on an ASEAN Political-Security as part of the ASEAN Community by 2015 a mirage. - What role will the US play in the South China Sea issue, and other ongoing maritime disputes in the Asia-Pacific, such as those between China and Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands and Japan and South Korea over the Takeshima/Dokdo? ANSWER: The US will support ASEAN, whatever that means, and progress for a COC. But it will exert behind the scenes pressure on the Philippines and Japan not to make matters worse. It will raise questions in their mind about firm US support should they misplay their hands and provoke violence. The US will try to bring South Korea and Japan together but the strains between Seoul and Tokyo are to great to expect

2 any immediate trilateral cooperation on security matters. Of course North Korea could always oblige...and drive them back together again. This is unlikely. QUERY: I'm a little unclear about this comment: Cambodia is on one side of the fault line and yet it is playing a spoiling role. ASEAN disunity has been exposed once again to the detriment of ASEAN's image. This episode make the creation on an ASEAN Political-Security as part of the ASEAN Community by 2015 a mirage. If you could find a few more spare minutes to clarify this, it would be appreciated ANSWER: I meant it is Cambodia versus "the rest" those countries that supported the Philippines. The spoiling role is to try to deny the Philippines the opportunity to lodge its concerns. ASEAN has set 2015 as the deadline for becoming an ASEAN Community based on three pillars: political-security, economic and socio-cultural. Clearly Cambodia does not identify itself as part of the first pillar. If ASEAN members cannot take a unified stance on a matter that affects one of its members, then it indicates it has not yet built up a sense of community among its members. A mirage a distant vision of unity on a political-security that vanishes when you move towards it.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, ASEAN and the South China Sea: Lessons Learned?, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 20, 2012.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: ASEANs Code of Conduct and Chinese Stonewalling Carlyle A. Thayer November, 2012

[client name deleted] Foreign Minister Hor Namhong opened a meeting here today for the 10th anniversary of the Declaration on Conduct of Parties (DOC), which includes a Code of Conduct (COC workshop). It was pretty telling that the opening ceremony included a speech by the Chinese vice foreign minister (Thailand and Cambodia were the only other countries to give speeches). There appears to be no substantive involvement from Vietnam or Philippines scheduled for the next two days. In the speeches, meanwhile, the ministers gave all impression of backing off from the COC for the time being (lots of "we must progress in a very gradual way"). What is the relevance of the DOC at this point and what the chances are that ASEAN will settle on a COC anytime soon. Without it, any predictions for what will happen in the South China Sea going forward? Also, will China be able to play this powerful role come the end of Cambodia's chairmanship? ANSWER: The Chinese are stonewalling and the COC is a year or more away. China is trying to get through the ASEAN and related Summits/ East Asia Summits without much criticism. Not one DOC project has been approved although China has dangled money in front of all.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, ASEANs Code of Conduct and Chinese Stonewalling, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 14, 2012.