COLUMNS IN ECONOMIC 14-20 JANUARY 2010 An exciting IPO prospect for Garuda Cyrillus Harinowo Hadiwerdoyo, Jakarta | Mon,

01/17/2011 11:08 AM | Opinion I was surprised when I boarded the Garuda flight from Melbourne to Denpasar. The plane was full both in business and economy classes. What surprised me even more was almost all the passengers were Australian. I became a minority in my own flagship airline. During that flight, for the first time I experienced the excellent service made by Garuda. All the crew was sympathetic and stood ready to help passengers with any need such as a can of Coca Cola or, many passengers did ask for cans of Bintang beer. The ambiance was really joyous with many passengers acting as if the flight was a party. Each with a can of Bintang in their hands. I noticed those passengers were already like a community. I flew with Garuda again from Sydney to Denpasar a few months later. On that trip I found the ground crew was very helpful and in fact relieved me from the burden of excess baggage, which eased my headache. I still found the service excellent. Garuda was able to maintain consistency in providing an excellent service during its flights. I noticed that the maintenance of service became standard for Garuda. I enjoyed riding the first Boeing 737-800 on my flight to Surabaya and was served with luxury with a blanket once the cabin became cold. (In those days I hardly ever saw blankets provided for domestic flights). Later, I enjoyed the personal video service on the flight to Singapore using the same aircraft. In fact, I felt rich on that flight since everything was served perfectly, even in economy class. Since then, I monitored this airline very closely and most of the time compared with what they do with rival airlines. One of the interesting comparisons were my flights to London and Tokyo. I flew to London on a first-class ticket with Malaysian Airlines and flew to Tokyo from Jakarta with Garuda business class. To London I paid a Malaysian Airlines US$6,000 roundtrip while to Tokyo I paid Garuda less than $2,000 for the business-class ticket return. I chose Malaysian Airlines to London because its price was much lower than Singapore Airlines, which charged people $15,000 on Airbus 380 or $12,000 on a regular flight. Both are for the first-class tickets. My experience with Malaysian Airlines, which flew a quite old Boeing 747-400 was not too extraordinary. Very rare the cabin attendants visited me and looked after my needs. Therefore, I had to ring a bell many times to call them. In fact, I also had to ask for a bottle of mineral water during that flight. On the other hand, the service of Garuda was much more extraordinary. On that route, Garuda flies the new Airbus 330-200 with flat bed seats for business class. What is more exciting is that the crew knew what I needed. Even when I woke up from dozing off I found not one but two bottles of mineral water by my seat. They served a delicious breakfast before arriving. The crew went around regularly to attend the needs of the customers. All in all, the service that I experienced with Garuda was really memorable. I wrote of this experience in a story with the title To Tokyo with the best Airline in Asia. This is so because from the survey in 2010 by Australian-based Center of the Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA), Garuda scored the best, in fact better than even Singapore Airlines in all aspects of the survey. All these excellent experiences show a premium quality of the service of the airline. However, the basic feature of the company was improved much earlier. The timeliness of the flights have become a norm these days. Even a delay of 15 minutes triggers a request of an apology from the pilots. Meanwhile the rejuvenation of the fleet has been moving quite far. Nowadays, the age of Garudas aircraft has become much younger, no less than even Singapore Airlines. With the arrival of new Boeing 737-800s, Airbus 330-200s and even Boeing 777 ERs, Garuda will continue to maintain increasingly younger fleet. Therefore it can be expected that the safety culture of the airlines will similarly ingrain in the mind of the employees. With all these characteristics being built, Garuda has firmly established itself not just as a full serviced airlines but as a premium airlines. I am sure that the strategy works well, especially at the time when the size of the Indonesian middle class is growing at a rapid rate. According to the Asian Development Bank, the number constituting the Indonesian middle class (measured with the income of between $2 to $20 per day) has reached 106 million people. At the same time, the number of affluent people has reached more than 30 million people, larger than the entire Malaysian population. With the right targeting, Garuda will enjoy most of the benefits of the larger middle-class and affluent population. Currently we have seen the beginning of the harvest season. The business lounge of Garuda grows larger and larger to accomodate more business class passengers. The queue at the check-in counter also keeps growing and is a testimony of how successful the airline is. It is no wonder that the management has the courage to forecast a much brighter outlook several years down the road with the number of passengers increasing. I would not be surprised if the number of passengers double in less than five years time. With all these experiences, I feel excited with the prospect of Garuda going public. The preparation that the management has made in the last few years will certainly pay off on this IPO. In terms of timing, from the internal point of view, Garuda has just received a title of the most improved airline from Skytrax. At the same time, as mentioned earlier, CAPA nominated Garuda as the best airline in Asia. All these achievements will at the end enhance the visibility of the airline in the eyes of global investors.

Financially, Garuda has made a miracoulous turn-around. From a money-losing business, in the last three years Garuda has booked increasing profits year after year. In fact, the legacy of debt form the previous management has been gradually brought down. From more than $800 million a few years back, now Garudas indebtedness to ECA is just $240 million. With this IPO, the ratio of debt to equity will decline so that the capital structure of the airlines will be improved significantly. The IPO will also bring transparency to the airline so that the conduct of corporate governance will experience much improvement. The current management has shown an exemplary performance so that with the IPO the culture of good corporate governance will cascade down to all levels of management. With that we can expect further improvement in its efficiency. Meanwhile, the capital market has been condusive to an IPO. Even though last week there was a major correction in the stock market, fundamentally the market continues to be bullish. Global investors are hungry for prospective investments. And Garuda is certainly not the kind of company that they will miss. With that kind of environment we expect that the government and the management will allow the IPO to proceed smoothly. With that, the Indonesian stock market will acquire one more blue chip company in their exchange. With all these characteristics being built, Garuda has firmly established itself not just as a full serviced airlines but as a premium airlines.

The writer is an economist. An exciting IPO prospect for Garuda Cyrillus Harinowo Hadiwerdoyo, Jakarta | Mon, 01/17/2011 11:08 AM | Opinion I was surprised when I boarded the Garuda flight from Melbourne to Denpasar. The plane was full both in business and economy classes. What surprised me even more was almost all the passengers were Australian. I became a minority in my own flagship airline. During that flight, for the first time I experienced the excellent service made by Garuda. All the crew was sympathetic and stood ready to help passengers with any need such as a can of Coca Cola or, many passengers did ask for cans of Bintang beer. The ambiance was really joyous with many passengers acting as if the flight was a party. Each with a can of Bintang in their hands. I noticed those passengers were already like a community. I flew with Garuda again from Sydney to Denpasar a few months later. On that trip I found the ground crew was very helpful and in fact relieved me from the burden of excess baggage, which eased my headache. I still found the service excellent. Garuda was able to maintain consistency in providing an excellent service during its flights. I noticed that the maintenance of service became standard for Garuda. I enjoyed riding the first Boeing 737-800 on my flight to Surabaya and was served with luxury with a blanket once the cabin became cold. (In those days I hardly ever saw blankets provided for domestic flights). Later, I enjoyed the personal video service on the flight to Singapore using the same aircraft. In fact, I felt rich on that flight since everything was served perfectly, even in economy class. Since then, I monitored this airline very closely and most of the time compared with what they do with rival airlines. One of the interesting comparisons were my flights to London and Tokyo. I flew to London on a first-class ticket with Malaysian Airlines and flew to Tokyo from Jakarta with Garuda business class. To London I paid a Malaysian Airlines US$6,000 roundtrip while to Tokyo I paid Garuda less than $2,000 for the business-class ticket return. I chose Malaysian Airlines to London because its price was much lower than Singapore Airlines, which charged people $15,000 on Airbus 380 or $12,000 on a regular flight. Both are for the first-class tickets. My experience with Malaysian Airlines, which flew a quite old Boeing 747-400 was not too extraordinary. Very rare the cabin attendants visited me and looked after my needs. Therefore, I had to ring a bell many times to call them. In fact, I also had to ask for a bottle of mineral water during that flight. On the other hand, the service of Garuda was much more extraordinary. On that route, Garuda flies the new Airbus 330-200 with flat bed seats for business class. What is more exciting is that the crew knew what I needed. Even when I woke up from dozing off I found not one but two bottles of mineral water by my seat. They served a delicious breakfast before arriving. The crew went around regularly to attend the needs of the customers. All in all, the service that I experienced with Garuda was really memorable. I wrote of this experience in a story with the title To Tokyo with the best Airline in Asia. This is so because from the survey in 2010 by Australian-based Center of the Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA), Garuda scored the best, in fact better than even Singapore Airlines in all aspects of the survey. All these excellent experiences show a premium quality of the service of the airline. However, the basic feature of the company was improved much earlier. The timeliness of the flights have become a norm these days. Even a delay of 15 minutes triggers a request of an apology from the pilots. Meanwhile the rejuvenation of the fleet has been moving quite far. Nowadays, the age of Garudas aircraft has become much younger, no less than even Singapore Airlines. With the arrival of new Boeing 737-800s, Airbus 330-200s and even Boeing 777 ERs, Garuda will

continue to maintain increasingly younger fleet. Therefore it can be expected that the safety culture of the airlines will similarly ingrain in the mind of the employees. With all these characteristics being built, Garuda has firmly established itself not just as a full serviced airlines but as a premium airlines. I am sure that the strategy works well, especially at the time when the size of the Indonesian middle class is growing at a rapid rate. According to the Asian Development Bank, the number constituting the Indonesian middle class (measured with the income of between $2 to $20 per day) has reached 106 million people. At the same time, the number of affluent people has reached more than 30 million people, larger than the entire Malaysian population. With the right targeting, Garuda will enjoy most of the benefits of the larger middle-class and affluent population. Currently we have seen the beginning of the harvest season. The business lounge of Garuda grows larger and larger to accomodate more business class passengers. The queue at the check-in counter also keeps growing and is a testimony of how successful the airline is. It is no wonder that the management has the courage to forecast a much brighter outlook several years down the road with the number of passengers increasing. I would not be surprised if the number of passengers double in less than five years time. With all these experiences, I feel excited with the prospect of Garuda going public. The preparation that the management has made in the last few years will certainly pay off on this IPO. In terms of timing, from the internal point of view, Garuda has just received a title of the most improved airline from Skytrax. At the same time, as mentioned earlier, CAPA nominated Garuda as the best airline in Asia. All these achievements will at the end enhance the visibility of the airline in the eyes of global investors. Financially, Garuda has made a miracoulous turn-around. From a money-losing business, in the last three years Garuda has booked increasing profits year after year. In fact, the legacy of debt form the previous management has been gradually brought down. From more than $800 million a few years back, now Garudas indebtedness to ECA is just $240 million. With this IPO, the ratio of debt to equity will decline so that the capital structure of the airlines will be improved significantly. The IPO will also bring transparency to the airline so that the conduct of corporate governance will experience much improvement. The current management has shown an exemplary performance so that with the IPO the culture of good corporate governance will cascade down to all levels of management. With that we can expect further improvement in its efficiency. Meanwhile, the capital market has been condusive to an IPO. Even though last week there was a major correction in the stock market, fundamentally the market continues to be bullish. Global investors are hungry for prospective investments. And Garuda is certainly not the kind of company that they will miss. With that kind of environment we expect that the government and the management will allow the IPO to proceed smoothly. With that, the Indonesian stock market will acquire one more blue chip company in their exchange. With all these characteristics being built, Garuda has firmly established itself not just as a full serviced airlines but as a premium airlines.

The writer is an economist.

Ragu Memangkas Subsidi Jum'at, 14 Januari 2011 | 00:37 WIB Dibatalkannya kenaikan tarif kereta kelas ekonomi semakin menunjukkan bahwa pemerintah tidak memiliki kebijakan yang jelas mengenai subsidi. Tiada pula penjelasan yang jernih kenapa subsidi harus dipertahankan atau dicabut. Sikap yang serba ragu ini hanya menyulitkan pelaku bisnis dan membingungkan masyarakat. Bisa dibayangkan pula betapa repotnya manajemen PT Kereta Api. Mereka telah memutuskan menaikkan tarif kelas ekonomi. Tapi, setelah dua hari berlaku, kebijakan ini harus dibatalkan atas perintah Presiden. Kejadian serupa dialami oleh PLN. Direksi perusahaan ini memutuskan akan menghapus batas atas kenaikan tarif listrik industri untuk menekan subsidi, tapi Menteri Energi justru menegur direksi PLN. Keputusan PT Kereta Api menaikkan tarif tentu bukan tanpa alasan. Selain untuk mengurangi kerugian, langkah ini diperlukan untuk meningkatkan pelayanan. Begitu juga keputusan PLN tentang batas tarif listrik industri. Tanpa menghapus batas atas, tambahan subsidi listrik akan mencapai Rp 1,8-2,1 triliun. Perhitungan itu belum memasukkan tambahan subsidi akibat kenaikan harga bahan bakar minyak. Pemerintah terkesan hanya berupaya menunda persoalan, bukannya berupaya menuntaskannya secepat mungkin. Masalah tarif kereta dan listrik ini bisa terkatung-katung seperti halnya rencana pembatasan penggunaan Premium untuk menghemat subsidi BBM. Meski sudah digagas lebih dari lima tahun silam, pembatasan Premium hingga kini belum juga diterapkan.

Mestinya, pemerintah tak punya alasan membatalkan semua rencana itu. Apalagi kebijakan perusahaan-perusahaan negara itu justru akan membantu pemerintah menekan beban subsidi, terutama BBM dan listrik, yang tahun ini dipastikan bakal meledak akibat tingginya harga minyak mentah. Terlebih lagi, subsidi yang berkaitan dengan harga minyak dinilai tidak tepat sasaran karena hanya menguntungkan si kaya. Semua itu memperlihatkan bahwa pemerintah tidak punya rencana jangka panjang tentang subsidi. Pada masa Presiden Megawati, pemerintah pernah mencanangkan target subsidi BBM nol persen meskipun tidak pernah tercapai. Pada masa itu, pemerintah juga pernah menetapkan harga BBM berdasarkan harga pasar. Dalam soal ini, pemerintah sekarang justru mundur. Akibatnya, Indonesia masih terus berkutat dengan urusan subsidi, dan ketergantungan masyarakat pada subsidi masih sangat tinggi. Di tengah makin mahalnya harga minyak akibat kian terbatasnya pasokan dan meningkatnya permintaan, target subsidi nol persen mestinya menjadi dasar kebijakan pemerintah. Artinya, setiap kebijakan pemerintah harus mengacu pada target itu. Bahwa kemudian pemerintah harus menaikkan tarif listrik atau harga BBM, hal itu merupakan salah satu konsekuensi yang harus ditanggung pemerintah, sepanjang dampak ekonomi dan sosialnya bisa diperkirakan dan diatasi. Kalau tujuannya menjaga citra pemerintah, bersikap sok populis dengan mempertahankan subsidi mungkin lebih menguntungkan secara politik. Tapi langkah ini justru membahayakan anggaran negara sekaligus meninggalkan bom persoalan untuk masa depan. Jalan Tol, Jalan di Tempat! Editor : Erlangga Djumena Rabu, 19 Januari 2011 | 10:59 WIB JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Empat badan usaha milik negara, yakni PT Jasa Marga, Tbk., PT Pelindo, PT Angkasa Pura I, dan Bali Tourism Development Center (BTDC), akan berkongsi membangun Jalan Tol Serangan-Tanjung Benoa sepanjang 11,5 kilometer. Ini jalan tol pertama di Bali. Jalan tol, yang konstruksinya di atas teluk itu, ditargetkan sudah beroperasi saat Konferensi Tingkat Tinggi Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (KTT APEC) di Bali pada 2013. Pembangunan jalan tol di Bali tak hanya untuk menyambut para petinggi negara-negara peserta APEC, tetapi juga karena Bali memang membutuhkannya. Lalu lintas di Bali sudah sangat padat dan mengkhawatirkan. Perjalanan Denpasar-Jimbaran, misalnya, hanya difasilitasi jalan bypass Ngurah Rai. Saking padatnya, lalu lintas dari Nusa Dua ke Bandara Ngurah Rai, yang jaraknya sekitar 10 kilometer harus ditempuh satu jam. Tanpa jalan tol dan perbaikan infrastruktur transportasi lainnya, kemacetan total bukan mustahil akan mengancam Bali. Kenyamanan perjalanan wisata akan terganggu, yang berdampak pada minat wisatawan ke Bali. Mungkinkan tol di Bali selesai 2013? Proyek Tol Cikampek-Palimanan (116 kilometer) Jawa Barat saja hingga kini belum jelas kapan akan selesai. Investor tol Malaysia, PLUS Expressways Berhad, sudah tiga tahun menunggu kepastian. PLUS masih kebingungan soal trase jalan tol itu. Apakah trase-nya harus berubah lagi, seiring penolakan warga Ciwaringin di Kabupaten Cirebon terhadap pembangunan jalan tol itu? Hingga kini PLUS belum mendapat informasi. Manajemen PLUS, di bawah ancaman para pemilik saham, tiap bulan harus mondar-mandir Jakarta-Kuala Lumpur untuk menuntaskan kelanjutan proyek jalan tol itu. Para pemegang saham ingin proyek itu jadi sumber pendapatan, bukan sumber pengeluaran.

Masalah utama proyek tol adalah pembebasan lahan. Kesulitan pembebasan lahan sudah lama diperbincangkan, tetapi tak juga kunjung diselesaikan. Janji pengesahan UU Pembebasan Lahan pada Desember 2010 juga hanya isapan jempol. Minimnya porsi pemerintah dalam proyek tol menjadi kendala tersendiri. Pemerintah tak pernah tegas menjamin kelangsungan proyek tol. Apalagi setelah tol jadi, tak ada jaminan volume kendaraan yang lewat sesuai dengan ketentuan. Kalau tender proyek jalan tol di Jawa saja, yang secara ekonomis menarik, sulit menarik investor, lalu bagaimana dengan proyek tol di luar Jawa yang trafiknya rendah? Tanpa jaminan, investor akan lebih tertarik mendanai proyek pembangkit listrik. Meski pengembalian modal sektor listrik hanya 12 persen, dibanding tol sebesar 15-17 persen, kelangsungan proyeknya lebih terjamin. Duncan Wooldridge, Head of Asian Economics UBS (bank terbesar di Swiss) pada Desember 2010 menyatakan, investor lebih berminat menanamkan modal di pembangkit listrik karena ada jaminan. Padahal, dari sisi kinerja perusahaan, 24 badan usaha tol telah lolos evaluasi Badan Pengatur Jalan Tol Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum. Perusahaan-perusahaan itu diyakini mampu melanjutkan proyek. Jika tak juga ada jalan keluar bagi masalah pembebasan lahan, lalu bagaimana negeri ini akan menyelesaikan masalah infrastruktur transportasi. Sebab, di sisi lain, pemerintah juga tak bersikap tegas dalam soal transportasi kereta api. Menunda kenaikan tarif, tanpa menambah subsidi, sama artinya membunuh perkeretaapian. Lalu dengan apa transportasi manusia dan barang akan dilakukan? Apa sebenarnya yang ada di benak pemerintah soal pembangunan transportasi di negeri ini?(HARYO DAMARDONO) BUMN Jangan Dijadikan Sapi Perah Editor : Erlangga Djumena Senin, 17 Januari 2011 | 07:30 WIB SHUTTERSTOCKIlustrasi. KOMPAS.com Kalau saja perusahaan BUMN bisa dikelola secara transparan dan profesional, niscaya efek bola salju dari kegiatan usaha di dalam negeri akan ikut mendorong laju pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. Dulu, pelaku ekonomi yang menjadi andalan pembangunan nasional adalah BUMN, badan usaha milik swasta, dan koperasi. Jika melihat tantangan dan persaingan usaha saat ini dan di masa depan, seharusnya BUMN bisa dikelola layaknya perusahaan swasta. Di Singapura, perusahaan BUMN dikelola oleh Temasek, sementara BUMN di Malaysia diurus oleh Khazanah. Di Indonesia, Kementerian BUMN sejatinya bisa berperan lebih fleksibel dan memiliki kewenangan penuh untuk membuat keputusan bisnis strategis. Meski demikian, seluruh kegiatan usaha BUMN tersebut tetap harus ditujukan bagi peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat. Oleh karena itu, semua bentuk intervensi politik dari DPR atau kelompok kepentingan lainnya harus bisa dienyahkan dari BUMN. Selama ini, gerak langkah BUMN kerap terkendala oleh intervensi dari berbagai kelompok kepentingan yang sering mengatasnamakan kepentingan rakyat. Tidak heran jika kemudian proses privatisasi BUMN selalu menimbulkan masalah. Misalnya, proses penawaran saham perdana (IPO) PT Krakatau Steel (KS) yang tidak berjalan dengan lancar menyusul adanya kontroversi dalam penetapan harga saham perdana perusahaan baja tersebut.

Persoalan PT KS mencuat bisa jadi karena kurangnya komunikasi antara manajemen dan publik atau karena memang ada intervensi dari kelompok kepentingan politik. Belajar dari kasus tersebut, pemerintah, dalam hal ini Kementerian BUMN, seharusnya bisa melakukan evaluasi menyeluruh. Hal itu diperlukan supaya rencana IPO BUMN lain tidak terganggu dan kisruh lagi seperti yang dialami PT KS. Evaluasi tersebut tidak hanya mencakup aspek teknis saja, tetapi juga menyangkut hal-hal nonteknis. Misalnya, mengkaji kembali kredibilitas dan profesionalisme dari perusahaan konsultanpublic relations yang ditetapkan dari Kementerian BUMN dalam menangani proses IPO BUMN. Tahun ini setidaknya ada empat BUMN yang akan go public, termasuk PT Garuda Indonesia. Jika proses IPO tersebut terganggu oleh halhal nonteknis, sangat boleh jadi akan membuyarkan persepsi investor yang akan membeli saham BUMN yang akan go public itu. Terkait dengan tahapan IPO Garuda Indonesia, perusahaan penerbangan ini sudah melakukanpublic expose dan road show ke Singapura selama dua hari. Kegiatan road show masih akan dilanjutkan antara lain ke Hongkong, London, dan New York, Amerika Serikat. Manajemen Garuda Indonesia berusaha meyakinkan para investor institusi di luar negeri mengenai prospek perusahaan penerbangan tersebut. Transparansi sebaiknya tidak hanya menyangkut keuangan, tetapi juga keterbukaan dalam proses tahapan IPO. IPO BUMN hendaknya tidak dijadikan ajang untuk membiayai kepentingan politik tertentu dan jangan menjadikan BUMN sebagai sapi perah. (Tjahja Gunawan Diredja) Turbulensi Mandala Editor : Erlangga Djumena Jumat, 14 Januari 2011 | 07:14 WIB KOMPAS.com "Trisia, kau yakin Mandala tak jatuh lagi? tanya seorang wartawan di Medan, Sumatera Utara. Trisia Megawati, mantan Head of Corporate Communication Mandala, merasa tertohok. Dia terdiam, sebelum menguasai diri dan menjelaskan kebangkitan Mandala Air. Boeing 737-200 Mandala RI-091, yang jatuh di Padang Bulan, Medan, 5 Oktober 2005, menewaskan 143 orang, adalah titik nadir Mandala. Masa itu, sulit membujuk warga Indonesia, apalagi orang Medan, kembali terbang dengan Mandala. Juli 2009, bisa disebut puncak kegemilangan Mandala setelah bersama Garuda Indonesia dinyatakan lolos larangan terbang ke Eropa. Mandala lantas mengangkuti pegawai Sampoerna, Total, Schlumberger, PAMA, hingga Kadin. Orang mulai melihat Mandala sebagai pesaing Garuda. Namun, Rabu (12/1/2011), secara mengejutkan, Presiden Direktur Mandala Airlines Diono Nurjadin mengumumkan penghentian sementara operasionalisasi maskapai itu. Semoga sebelum 45 hari dapat beroperasi lagi, ujarnya. Padahal, Diono pada Juni 2007 di Perancis dengan optimistis menandatangani kontrak pembelian 25 unit Airbus A320 senilai 1,9 miliar dollar AS. Turbulensi Mandala memang mengejutkan. Kondisi Mandala sangat bertolak belakang dengan semangat yang terjadi maskapai lain, sebut saja Garuda Indonesia, pada saat bersamaan melakukan penawaran saham perdana. Adapun Indonesia AirAsia, pada Februari 2011 akan menjemput pesawat barunya, Airbus A320, ke Toulouse, Perancis.

Adapun Mandala, restrukturisasi telah membuat maskapai ini tak terbang. Penundaan kewajiban pembayaran utang segera dimohonkan ke Pengadilan Niaga Jakarta Pusat. Mandala berharap ada dana segar dari investor baru. Ada apa dengan Mandala? Ternyata, Mandala tidak lagi menguasai pesawat. Maskapai ini pernah memiliki 11 pesawat, tetapi kemudian enam pesawat ditarik pemilik sewa guna usaha (lessor). Mulai Kamis (13/1/2011), lima pesawat juga ditarik pemilik sewa guna usaha. Pesawat itu ditarik pemilik sewa guna usaha karena Mandala tidak mampu memenuhi kewajiban pembayarannya. Ada informasi, hal ini karena harga sewa pesawat terlalu tinggi. Jika demikian, apakah tidak ada proses tawar-menawar saat negosiasi sewa pesawat. Atau, ini dampak dari ketidakmampuan Mandala bersaing dengan maskapai lain di zona penerbangan berbiaya murah (low cost carrier), baik di penerbangan domestik maupun regional. Hanya manajemen Mandala yang tahu, apa yang sebenarnya terjadi? Turbulensi Mandala agak aneh karena di maskapai ini ada Indigo Partners USA yang memegang 49 persen saham sejak April 2006. Indigo adalah perusahaan yang berpengalaman mengelola maskapai, berkongsi dengan Tiger Air (Singapura), Spirit (AS), Wizz (Hongaria), dan Abnanova (Rusia). Mandala pada masa Warwick Brady menjadi Chief Executive Officer pernah menjadi barometer keselamatan penerbangan Indonesia. Namun, bisa jadi pendapat bahwa jagoan di luar belum tentu di Indonesia itu benar. Pasar Indonesia memang ajaib. Loyalitas kepada maskapai bergantung pada murahnya tiket, bukan merek. Di sisi lain, ada kelompok masyarakat yang haus pelayanan dan gengsi. Berapa pun harga tiket Garuda tetap dipilih. Oleh karena itu, bila ingin sukses dan terbang lebih tinggi harus serius menetapkan positioning-nya. Restrukturisasi operasionalisasi Mandala pernah berhasil, tetapi kini itu saja belum cukup. Mandala juga harus berhasil dalam restrukturisasi komersial. (HARYO DAMARDONO) Inilah Politik Cabai ala Warteg Penulis : M Suprihadi | Editor : Marcus Suprihadi Jumat, 7 Januari 2011 | 14:30 WIB KOMPAS/TOTOK WIJAYANTOIlustrasi: suasana di sebuah warteg KOMPAS.com Suasana sebuah warung tegal di sebuah jalan kecil di Pondok Kelapa, Jakarta Timur, pagi tadi tampak ramai. Seperti biasa, sejumlah warga sedang makan pagi. Suasananya riuh. "Sambalnya kok enggak pedas sih, Mbak?" kata seorang pembeli sambil duduk mengangkat kaki di bangku warung. "Wong lombok lagi mahal kok minta sambal pedas," kata pembeli lain sambil tertawa. Yang lain pun menimpali, "Sambele bae dicampur tomat kok, ya ora pedes." Si Mbak penjaga warung pun hanya mesem-mesem. "Lha kiye lomboke kok langka. Mangan tahu goreng tanpa lombok ya ora maen," kata pengunjung lain dengan logat Tegal yang sangat kental. Perbincangan seperti itu sekarang umum terjadi di warung-warung tegal atau warung nasi lainnya di Jakarta. Maklum, harga cabai saat ini memang sangat mahal. Para pemilik warung harus pintar mencari akal agar tetap bisa mendapat keuntungan, sedangkan pelanggan juga tak harus tercekik lehernya karena harganya dimahalkan.

Mas Uuk, salah satu pengelola warung nasi di Palmerah, menyatakan, harga cabai yang melambung sampai Rp 100.000 per kg memang menyulitkan pedagang. Bagaimana tidak, selama ini sambal dan cabai hanyalah menu tambahan (optional) yang tidak diberi harga khusus. Mau mengambil sambal bersendok-sendok atau menggigit cabai sampai belasan biji pun, pelanggan tidak akan di-charge. "Tapi sekarang saya terpaksa memberi harga, Pak. Kalau nambah sambal banyak-banyak ya saya naikkan harganya Rp 1.000 saat menghitung," kata Uuk dalam perbincangan santai denganKompas.com, Kamis (6/1/2011) kemarin. Dia kemudian menuturkan, sebelum harga cabai naik sampai Rp 100.000 per kg, sehari dia bisa belanja 2 kg. Kira-kira sehari Rp 20.000Rp 30.000. "Semahal-mahalnya paling Rp 50.000," katanya. Sekarang, dia terpaksa mengurangi pembelian cabai menjadi 1 kg saja sehari. "Kalau 2 kilo,mosok untuk cabai saja Rp 200.000? Terus saya dapat apa?" katanya. Dalam hitungannya, untuk membeli cabai 1 kg saja sebenarnya sudah berat karena itu berarti keuntungannya sudah terkurangi sekitar Rp 50.000 sehari. Kalau dari omzetnya yang sedikit kurang dari Rp 1 juta sehari dia biasanya bisa mendapat sisa bersih Rp 200.000-Rp 300.000, artinya kini pendapatannya tinggal Rp 150.000-Rp 250.000. Kalau harus membeli 2 kg cabai, artinya keuntungannya harus terkurangi sekitar Rp 150.000. "Mau gimana lagi, Pak. Memang kondisinya lagi begini. Kalau kemarin bisa nyimpan, ya sekarang tidak dulu," katanya pasrah menghadapi mahalnya harga cabai. Men-charge harga sambal hanya salah satu trik yang dilakukan oleh pedagang untuk tetap bisa bertahan atau menekan kerugian. Cara lain adalah dengan mengurangi penggunaan cabai pada sambal. Supaya sambal yang tersaji tetap banyak dan bisa memenuhi selera pembeli, mereka biasa mencampur sambalnya dengan tomat goreng. "Jadilah sambal tomat yang tak kalah enak," kata penjaga warung nasi di Bintara, Bekasi Barat. Harga tomat memang jauh di bawah harga cabai sekarang ini. Kepada pembeli, para pedagang juga jujur mengatakan kalau cabai lagi mahal sehingga harap dimaklumni kalau sambalnya kurang pedas. Kenapa tidak pakai sambal kemasan saja? "Rasanya kurang mantep. Pembeli kurang suka," katanya. Cara lain untuk mengurangi penggunaan cabai adalah dengan tidak menyediakan cabai mentah di meja pembeli. Kalaupun menyediakan, jumlahnya sedikit saja dan sudah jelek-jelek. "Habis harga cabai rawit memang gila. Kalau kita beli sedikit, dihitungnya bijian. Satu biji dihargai Rp 1.000," kata Uuk. Maka, harap maklumlah kalau makan di warung-warung nasi sekarang ini serba tidak pedas. Para pedagang warung nasi memang terpaksa menerapkan politik cabai untuk bisa bertahan hidup. Atau, kalau mau, cabai dan sambal dihargai khusus sehingga biaya makan Anda naik? No. 21/XI/January 19-25, 2011 Economy & Business Efficiency Derailed Just one day after its increase, the price of economy class train travel was restored. Subsidized budget is limited.

JOJO handed out three Rp1,000 banknotes through the ticket windows. On that Sunday two weeks ago, the bachelor wanted to ride the electric train plying the Bogor-Jakarta Kota route. Surprisingly, one of the banknotes was returned. The ticket window officer at Bojong Gede Station, Bogor, informed him that the ticket price increase had been cancelled. The rate returned to the original Rp2,000. Jojo stood open-mouthed. Yesterday, I paid Rp2,000, they said it was Rp1,000 short, Jojo shared his experience to Tempo last week. That Sunday the government lowered the train rate that went up for just one day. According to Coordinating Minister for the Economy Hatta Rajasa, the decision was made by Minister of Transportation Freddy Numberi after coordinating with him. The measure was taken based on input from the people and observers in the train transport field, as well as taking into consideration todays real condition, said Hatta. The new rate for economy class had actually been announced by Commercial Director of PT Kereta Api Indonesia, Sulistyo Wimbo Hardjito, on 7 January. The train management company had pocketed a permit from the Ministry of Transportation. The amount was Rp500-8,500, depending on the route. The state-owned train company increased the rate because operational and maintenance costs continue to go up. In the meantime, the governments subsidies for it to carry out its public service organization or PSO is limited. Thats why, said Wimbo, the ticket price for economy class was adjusted. To support service quality improvement. In less than 24 hours a new instruction arrived. Chief of Mojokerto Station, East Java, Lutfi Wijaya, for example, received a cable on Saturday night, exactly at midnight, 00:00 WIB. The headquarters ordered the cancellation of the increased rates until further notice. That night, cables reached all stations all over the country. The rate increase for the economy train caused furor not just among the community using the cheap means of transportation. The Palace was also furious. A Tempo source explained that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono opposed the policy and asked Vice President Boediono settle the matter. On Sunday morning, Boediono summoned Hatta and Minister for Finance Agus Martowardojo to the Palace. It was decided that the increase in train rates is postponed, citing as reason the rocketing prices of basic commodities. If the rate is increased, the peoples economy would be even worse. Of concern is naturally not just inflation, but also the image of the government in the eyes of its people. At 12 noon, the meeting at the Vice Presidents office on Jalan Medan Merdeka Selatan, Jakarta, was over. There were no reporters. But Pak Minister wanted to immediately convey the important decision. So, reporters were invited to Banteng Square, site of his office. Surprisingly, Hatta refused to hold a press conference. The reason was that the authority was under the Minister of Transportation. So it was arranged that in order for the information to spread, there would be no official press conference. As soon as he arrived at Graha Sawala, Hatta was instantly swarmed by 50 journalists. In the afternoon, Director-General for Trains Tundjung Inderawan gave a press conference. He said that the rate increase cancellation this time was based on the presidents directives. The train service standards must be detailed first and improved, he said. Theyll then be standardized as foundations for providing services. lll THIS was the third time the rate increase was cancelled, since the government gave the green light for it in the middle of last year (see infographic). Actually, according to Wimbo, the train rate for economy class that is currently in effect, was established in 2002. Another reason, the subsidy funds to serve public interests from the government are not as expected. The obligation to serve public interests is the difference between operational costs and rates set by the government. Last year, PT KAI proposed a budget to serve the public of Rp691 billion, but only Rp535 billion was disbursed. This year, management proposed Rp775 billion; funds approved may be Rp639 billion. Thats why the company insists on demanding rate adjustments, if the government objects to approving the budget requested. With regard to service quality, management claims that efforts have been made towards that. The lack of budget for subsidies, according to Wimbo, has created an arrears in maintenance (2000-2004 period) of approximately Rp1.4 trillion. The figure has been verified in an audit by the Supreme Audit Agency. Up until last year, another source said that the backlogthe delay in replacing antiquated production equipmentreached Rp17 trillion. The breakdown is: Rp6 trillion to improve facilities (locomotives, coaches, and trains) and Rp11 trillion for infrastructure. If old equipment is not replaced, there will always be accidents.

PT KAI repeatedly raised the matter. However, the government proposed another solution: the funds in the trillions would be better used by building double rails along the north tracks. This measure is estimated to reduce accidents as well. Member of the House Commission on Transportation and Infrastructure Yudi Widhiana Adia is concerned that the delay in the increase of rates and the limited funds to serve public interests will result in component cannibalisms, facilities reduction, and prioritizing safety but disregarding comfort. With regard to cannibalism, former CEO of PT KAI Anwar Suprijadi had an interesting experience. Broken pantographs owned by the railway were removed, repainted, and then sold back to PT KAI. According to Anwar, PT KAI can actually do a cross-subsidy, using funds from executive or cargo trains. But, in the long run, this policy will eat into profits. Wimbo is against the proposal. Its about an assignment from the government, he said, the executor should be allowed some leeway. According to an activist from the Indonesian Transportation Community, Aditya Dwi Laksana, the government should meet the needs for subsidy as a consequence of rate increase cancellation. At the same time, PT KAI must improve its reporting on the use of subsidies. The booking system of the company doesnt separate subsidy from non-subsidy budget. This is what the government demanded before talking about rate increases. PT KAI must also improve its efficiency and service quality. With regard to efficiency, there have been negative comments about the companys performance. Anwar highlighted the establishment of the subsidiary, PT KAI Commuter Jabodetabek. Its not economical, it even adds to cost excesses, he said. Especially since there is no additional infrastructure. In other words, the business and income potentials remain the same. On the other hand, the headquarters is burdened with the operational costs of the subsidiarys new management. Commissioner of PT KAI Yahya Ombara suggested that the revitalization of Kereta Commuter be converted into an independent stateowned enterprise. The new company can directly receive funds to serve the public. It is because it is urgent for the Jabodetabek train to receive subsidies, because the majority of passengers in economy class are here. A Tempo source said that the airport train project that is not yet in operation, for example, is slowly eating into the capital, among others to pay the board of directors. In the new company, PT Kereta Api provides Rp60 billion, and PT Angkasa Pura II Rp40 billion. If theres no clarity in the near future, it would be better to amputate it. In the past two years, PT KAI has also founded three new subsidiaries in the fields of property, logistics, and tourism, by recruiting several members of the boards of directors and commissioners from outside, requiring huge expenses. The division of the company into several subsidiaries is creating the burden of double taxation. Basically, according to Anwar, improving efficiency depends on enthusiasm and willingness. There are many things that can be done, from overhauling the warehouses, going to depots, and following the train tracks. To listen and to know whether in the coaches there are rats or cockroaches, said Anwar. Retno Sulistyowati, Fery Firmansyah, Muhammad Taufik (Mojokerto) Tug-Of-War in Train Rate Increase June 2006 PT Kereta Api proposes a rate increase for economy class of 45 percent, or the equivalent of Rp500. The government disapproves. December 2006 Once again a rate increase for economy class is proposed, this time of 26 percent, to be effective in 2007. Once again the government disapproves citing as reason the peoples low buying power. January 2009 The government asks for a decrease in rate for Jabodetabek electric trains for economy class and AC economy because fuel price decreases. Rate decreases an average of Rp500. December 2009 PT KAI proposes again a rate increase for economy trains by 50 percent, in stages for four semesters, starting July 2010. In other words, every semester it goes up by 12.5 percent. June 20, 2010 The Ministry of Transportation gives the green light for the rate increase, in the Regulation by the Minister of Transportation No. KM.35/2010 on the Rate to Transport People by Economy Class Train dated 23 June 2010. It details the rate increase effective 1 July 2010, at 8-75 percent.

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August 4, 2010 Regulation by the Minister of Transportation No. KM.48/2010 on Amendment to Regulation by the Minister of Transportation No. KM.35/2010 on the Rate to Transport People by Economy Class Train is issued. It is stated that the rate increase is postponed to 1 October 2010. The considerations are the peoples economy social condition, train facilities and infrastructure preparedness. September 23, 2010 A Decision by the Minister of Transportation No. KM 54/2010, once again postponing the effective date of the new rate to the end of December 2010 is issued. January 5, 2011 A Letter from the Minister of Transportation to the PT KAI CEO No. HK. 202/1/3PHB 2011 is issued, stating that the rate for transporting people in economy class trains becomes effective January 2011. 8 January 2011 The new rate becomes effective. 9 January 2011 The PT KAI board of directors instructs the return to the old rate. Distorsi Statistik dan Kesenjangan Nasional Rabu, 19 Januari 2011 00:01 WIB 118 Dibaca | 1 Komentar Oleh Satryo Soemantri Brodjonegoro, Anggota Komisi Ilmu Rekayasa Akademi Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia Menjelang akhir 2010 masyarakat disuguhi data capaian pembangunan ekonomi dan sosial selama tahun 2010 dan prediksinya untuk tahun 2011. Data tersebut menggambarkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia mencapai 6%-7%, suatu angka yang cukup tinggi untuk ukuran negara besar seperti Indonesia. Ironisnya, di masyarakat masih terjadi berbagai musibah akibat kemiskinan, utamanya akibat kelaparan dan kesehatan yang sangat buruk. Pertanyaannya adalah apa yang sebenarnya terjadi dan mengapa sampai terjadi ketidaksesuaian antara gambaran nasional dan kondisi masyarakat? Dampak pendekatan statistik Data pertumbuhan ekonomi tersebut ternyata tidak membumi, tidak menggambarkan keadaan riil di masyarakat karena diperoleh secara statistik. Padahal metode statistik mempunyai banyak celah kelemahan apabila tidak cermat dan hati-hati menggunakannya. Data statistik adalah data agregasi yang menggambarkan kondisi makro, sehingga informasi detail tidak tergambarkan. Bahkan dalam banyak hal data agregasi tersebut justru mengaburkan informasi detail yang riil. Data riil yang detail yang diperoleh dari hasil survei lapangan dan sensus responden kemudian diolah dan dimanipulasi secara statistik untuk menghasilkan gambaran makro. Pertanyaannya adalah bagaimana menghasilkan gambaran makro yang riil dan kredibel sehingga bermanfaat bagi masyarakat. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dinyatakan relatif tinggi padahal masyarakatnya sebagian besar masih miskin, artinya terjadi kesenjangan ekonomi yang cukup besar di masyarakat. Pendapatan dan aset kelompok masyarakat kaya dan sangat kaya saat ini terus-menerus meningkat secara signifikan padahal populasi mereka sangatlah kecil, tidak lebih dari 5% penduduk Indonesia. Sementara pendapatan kelompok masyarakat miskin berkurang terus secara signifikan padahal populasi mereka sangatlah besar, lebih dari 60% penduduk. Secara rata-rata nasional, jika dihitung berdasarkan statistik, terjadi kenaikan pendapatan nasional dan pertumbuhan ekonomi, namun pada kenyataannya tidak terjadi peningkatan kesejahteraan nasional, bahkan yang terjadi sebenarnya adalah peningkatan kesenjangan nasional. Hal ini tentunya tidak diinginkan karena kesenjangan yang besar akan dapat mengganggu stabilitas nasional. Gambaran tersebut menunjukkan betapa data statistik dapat memberi informasi yang distortif dan menyesatkan, yang tidak menunjukkan keadaan masyarakat yang sebenarnya. Untuk menghindarkan pengambilan kebijakan yang salah, penggunaan data statistik harus dicermati dan diwaspadai. Data statistik tidak seharusnya digunakan mentah-mentah untuk penetapan kebijakan yang bersifat nasional. Data statistik seharusnya hanya digunakan sebagai alat bantu untuk melihat tren perkembangan secara makro dan untuk melakukan ekstrapolasi makro atau prediksi makro. Upaya mengatasi kesenjangan Dalam hal program pengentasan kemiskinan, data yang digunakan adalah data kemiskinan yang diperoleh Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Pertanyaannya adalah bagaimana ketajaman dan kecermatan BPS dalam menyusun data tersebut. Pada kenyataannya data BPS menunjukkan bahwa kemiskinan berkurang, padahal masyarakat miskin saat ini semakin menderita dan kemiskinan bertambah terus. Secara sederhana saja, kenaikan harga terus terjadi sedangkan pendapatan masyarakat miskin tidak lebih baik dari waktu ke waktu. Data statistik sangat bergantung pada cara penjaringan data dan jenis pertanyaan yang ditujukan kepada responden. Di sisi lain cara penjaringan data dapat diarahkan untuk kepentingan tertentu termasuk kepentingan politik. Dengan demikian sangat mungkin terjadi bahwa data statistik sangat bias dengan kepentingan tertentu sehingga menjadi tidak realistis. Para pengambil kebijakan kemudian hanya mengandalkan data BPS untuk kebijakan nasionalnya, dan karena data BPS tersebut tidak akurat, terjadilah kesenjangan di masyarakat. Data statistik akan sangat bermakna apabila diterapkan pada komunitas yang homogen dengan distribusi normal, data tersebut akan dapat menggambarkan keadaan riil komunitas tersebut. Untuk Indonesia, sebagai negara yang majemuk dan yang kesenjangannya luar biasa, metode statistik harus diterapkan per komunitas yang homogen dengan distribusi normal. Dengan demikian, nantinya kebijakan nasional

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yang diambil berdasarkan data tersebut berlaku untuk komunitas yang bersangkutan. Artinya, kebijakan nasional pembangunan tidak harus seragam untuk seluruh wilayah, tetapi bersifat spesifik unik untuk tiap wilayah sesuai potensi dan keunikan masing-masing, yang seragam adalah tujuannya, yaitu menyejahterakan masyarakat. Kesejahteraan masyarakat hanya dapat diatasi dengan meminimalkan kesenjangan sosial, dan ini hanya dapat diwujudkan jika menggunakan data dan informasi riil di masyarakat. Freeman, Inovasi, dan Sepak Bola Selasa, 18 Januari 2011 00:00 WIB 280 Dibaca | 2 Komentar INDONESIA butuh rencana konkret untuk mempercepat pertumbuhan perekonomian nasionalnya. Demikian harapan Presiden Yudhoyono pada rapat kabinet terbatas di Istana Bogor, akhir bulan lalu. Lalu, seperti apa bentuk konkret pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional itu? Menurut pendapat Christopher Freeman, ekonom terkemuka dari Inggris, percepatan ekonomi suatu negara sangat dipengaruhi kinerja aktor-aktor dan jejaring organisasi dalam sebuah sistem inovasi nasional. Bekerja atau tidaknya sistem inovasi inidalam dimensi tertentu-dapat dianologikan seperti mengusung tim sepak bola. Bersama dua sejawatnya, Freeman memperkenalkan konsep yang sekarang dikenal sebagai 'sistem inovasi nasional'. Sebuah konsep yang telah memberikan kontribusi penting bagi kebangkitan tradisi peran riset dan inovasi bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi, sains, dan teknologi. Konsep ini telah terbukti membawa kesejahteraan bangsa-bangsa maju saat ini dan mendorong munculnya kelompok 'new emerging forces' seperti China dan India. Enggan kolaborasi Kinerja inovasi pada tingkat negara ditentukan kinerja inovasi badan-badan usaha nasional. Bangunan jejaring, integrasi, dan kinerja sistem inovasi akan bermuara ke bentuk produk-produk kompetitif barang atau jasa, yang merupakan hasil kinerja inovasi pada tingkat badan usaha. Oleh karena itu, upaya memperkuat fungsi dan tanggung jawab badan usaha nasional di sini menjadi mutlak dan strategis. Belum lama ini World Economic Forum (WEF) melakukan perhitungan kemampuan inovasi negara-negara dunia (2010-2011) yang didasarkan pada sejumlah parameter yang mencakup kapasitas inovasi, kualitas lembaga riset, pembiayaan riset badan usaha, kolaborasi badan usaha dengan universitas, ketersediaan periset dan perekayasa, serta jumlah pemanfaatan paten. Dalam laporannya, WEF memosisikan inovasi Indonesia di bawah negara ASEAN lainnya seperti Singapura dan Malaysia. Penempatan posisi Indonesia itu--merujuk ke konsep Freeman--dapat dinilai wajar saja, mengingat saat ini aktor-aktor atau organisasiorganisasi utama inovasi Indonesia belum bekerja maksimal atau bersinergi dengan baik. Walaupun begitu, sebagian besar anak bangsa tetap sulit menerima posisi itu. Pasalnya, pada dasarnya bangsa ini memiliki kemampuan menguasai inovasi dengan didukung sumber daya alam melimpah, tersedianya periset-periset andal, dan lembaga-lembaga riset bertaraf internasional seperti LBM Eijkman, yang tak kalah hebat dari negara lain. Akan terasa sulit untuk melakukan kolaborasi inovasi jika para periset, inovator, penemuan dan kekayaan intelektual universitas/lembaga riset masih belum berorientasi pada pemenuhan kebutuhan riil masyarakat, pasar, atau dunia bisnis pada umumnya. Sementara badan usaha enggan dan terpaksa tetap memilih cara mengembangkan produk barang/jasa secara sendiri-sendiri atau membelinya ke luar negeri. Sepak bola Riedl Dari pengalaman negara maju, membangun sistem inovasi nasional bukanlah perkara mudah, karena menyangkut knowledge management dan sistem yang kompleks. Namun, untuk memulai bangunan sistem inovasi yang dinginkan--dalam dimensi tertentudapat melihat kepada usaha yang dilakukan Alfred Riedl dengan tim sepak bola nasional ketika memperebutkan Piala AFF 2010. Ternyata timnas Indonesia dapat bermain sangat bagus dan membanggakan kita semua. Paling tidak ada 4 (empat) faktor penentu 'kejayaan' tim nasional yang dapat dijadikan pembelajaran. Pertama, faktor strong leadership. Dengan segenap pengalamannya, Riedl berani menempatkan para pemain muda belum 'matang' tapi punya skill, dan mencampurnya dengan pemain-pemain senior dan naturalisasi. Sebagai pelatih, Riedl menentukan strategi dan formasi pemainnya sendiri. Watak, strategi, keberanian, dan keleluasaan yang dimilikinya, membuatnya tampak sebagai sosok pemimpin yang kuat. Kedua, faktor team work. Nasuha muda, Bambang Pamungkas senior, Gonzales, dan Bachdim yang dinaturalisasi tampak kompak bermain indah satu sama lain saling mengoper bola hingga ke mulut gawang. Perbedaan pengalaman, latar belakang atau asal klub tidak menghalangi kerja sama. Sementara latihan bersama Riedl merupakan pembelajaran berharga. Berkat kekuatan team work ini, tim nasional sering menang dan menciptakan gol-gol yang fantastik. Ketiga, faktor supporting. Kemenangan tim sepak bola memang pada akhirnya ditentukan 11 orang pemainnya. Namun tanpa penonton, permainan sepak bola akan terasa hambar. Salah satu faktor keberhasilan tim adalah terlibatnya penonton di setiap pertandingan. Para pemain mengetahui mereka mendapat dukungan penonton dan mereka main untuk penontonnya. Adapun faktor yang keempat adalah nasionalisme. Slogan 'Garuda di Dadaku' menggelorakan semangat juang untuk menang. Nasionalisme adalah keyakinan pemain bahwa Indonesia dapat mengalahkan negara lain.

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Riedl dan Freeman memang dua tokoh dengan urusan yang berbeda. Namun, Freeman akan setuju dengan cara-cara Riedl mengusung sepak bola Indonesia. Demikian juga halnya membangun sistem inovasi, tentunya membutuhkan strong leadership. Selain itu perlu satu team work yang kuat dan dapat mencetak gol, sama halnya dengan kerja sama dan networking yang menjadi persyaratan utama sistem inovasi. Demikian juga jika tanpa dukungan lembaga-lembaga kebijakan inovasi dan segenap komponen bangsa, sistem inovasi akan sulit terwujud. Sementara globalisasi merupakan keniscayaan. Namun, gelora nasionalisme akan mempercepat bangsa ini semakin mandiri. Perangkap regulasi atau koordinasi Iklim di Indonesia belumlah kondusif bagi bangunan sistem inovasi. Dari sisi regulasi, pemerintah sudah berupaya mengakselerasi kegiatan riset dan inovasi dunia usaha, antara lain dengan memberikan insentif. Namun, upaya harmonisasi dan sinkronisasi regulasi tampaknya masih perlu dilakukan. Sebab, regulasi masih menyisakan sejumlah pertanyaan. Selama ini regulasi sifatnya cenderung sektoral dan tidak mudah dalam implementasinya. Selain itu, terdapat regulasi yang menghambat seperti pada aturan rezim pegawai negeri sipil, yang tidak membolehkan adanya mobilitas sumber daya manusia ke badan usaha swasta, yang memerlukan bantuan tenaga periset atau perekayasa pemerintah. Sementara dari sisi nonregulasi, pembenahan dan optimalisasi kompetensi kelembagaan inovasi merupakan hal yang mutlak dilakukan. Upaya pembenahan paralel dengan upaya-upaya untuk menyinergikan kebijakan sistem riset dan teknologi dengan kebijakan sektoral sistem perindustrian, pendidikan, keuangan dan sebagainya, sehingga dapat berkorelasi. Satu bahasa dan terkoordinasi ke dalam satu sistem yang lebih besar, yaitu sistem inovasi nasional. Tahapan yang tak kalah penting adalah bagaimana menentukan pilihan dan menetapkan fokus utama sistem inovasi lebih terarah dan terukur, agar tujuannya dapat dicapai. Hal lain seperti nasionalisme, strong leadership, budaya kreatif, dan sikap berani mengambil risiko, pembelajaran, atau reformasi birokrasi akan sangat memengaruhi sistem inovasi yang akan dibangun. Ironi Kekayaan Migas di Jawa Timur Kamis, 13 Januari 2011 00:00 WIB 481 Dibaca | 7 Komentar Indonesia adalah negara yang kaya akan sumber daya mineral, salah satunya adalah minyak dan gas bumi (migas). Menurut catatan Walhi Jawa Timur, Provinsi Jawa Timur menopang 40% migas nasional dengan 28 blok migas dalam tahap eksplorasi. Salah satunya adalah Blok Brantas, yang memiliki 49 sumur yang tersebar di tiga kabupaten di Jawa Timur (Sidoarjo 43 sumur, 4 sumur di Mojokerto, dan 2 sumur di Pasuruan). Ironisnya, petaka pertambangan migas justru terjadi di Jawa Timur, tepatnya di Porong, Sidoarjo. Tahun 2006 adalah tahun yang tidak bisa dilupakan warga Porong, Sidoarajo. Pada Mei 2006 itulah awal munculnya semburan lumpur Lapindo yang menenggelamkan rumah, tanah, dan masa depan warga Porong. Tahun 2011 ini, usia semburan lumpur Lapindo di Porong, Sidoarjo, Jawa Timur, mendekati lima tahun. Meskipun sudah akan menginjak usia lima tahun, persoalan lumpur Lapindo tidak kunjung usai. Berbagai kejadian di Porong akhir-akhir ini justru menunjukkan makin runyamnya persoalan yang diakibatkan lumpur Lapindo itu. Menjelang Idul Fitri 2010, misalnya, dua orang warga Porong harus dirawat di rumah sakit karena sekujur tubuh mereka terbakar. Kedua orang itu adalah Purwaningsih dan Dedy Purbianto. Menjelang Lebaran 2010, semburan gas liar yang mengandung metana dari lumpur Lapindo tiba-tiba terbakar dan melukai tubuh mereka. Celakanya, semburan gas liar itu kini menyebar hampir di seluruh wilayah Porong, Sidoarjo. Semburan lumpur Lapindo pada Mei 2006 telah membuat Porong, Sidoarjo, menjadi kawasan yang berbahaya bagi kehidupan manusia, bahkan juga makhluk hidup lainnya. Selain menyebabkan semburan gas metana yang muncul secara liar dan mudah terbakar di rumah-rumah penduduk, lumpur Lapindo juga menyebabkan turunnya tanah di wilayah itu. Penurunan tanah di kawasan itu kini telah membahayakan konstruksi bangunan. Rumah yang tidak tenggelam lumpur Lapindo pun kini terancam roboh secara berlahan. Ancaman terhadap keselamatan warga Porong, Sidoarjo, juga bertambah dengan adanya kemungkinan jebolnya tanggul penahan lumpur Lapindo. Jebolnya tanggul penahan lumpur itu bisa terjadi kapan saja. Artinya, setiap saat warga Porong, Sidoarjo, harus bersiap-siap meninggalkan rumah mereka untuk menjadi pengungsi. Kejadian jebolnya tanggul penahan lumpur Lapindo pada 23 Desember 2010 dapat dijadikan contoh dalam hal ini. Seperti ditulis di portal Korbanlumpur.info, jebolnya tanggul penahan lumpur Lapindo itu membuat persawahan dan rumah warga terendam. Begitu tanggul jebol, air di dalam kolam lumpur langsung mengalir deras menerjang persawahan dan rumah warga. Wilayah yang terkena terjangan lumpur mencakup Dusun Pologunting, Desa Gelagaharum, dan Desa Sentul. Warga pun panik. Mereka spontan mengevakuasi perabotan mereka. Ancaman terhadap kehidupan bukan hanya berhenti di situ. Kini tanpa harus menggunakan alat pemantau kualitas udara pun kita dengan

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mudah dapat memastikan bahwa di Porong telah terjadi polusi udara yang begitu parah. Bau busuk yang menyengat di kawasan itu sejak munculnya semburan lumpur Lapindo adalah salah satu indikasinya. Belum lagi polusi udara yang diakibatkan emisi kendaraan bermotor yang terjebak kemacetan setiap melintas di Jalan Raya Porong. Kini bukan hanya warga Porong yang dipaksa menghirup udara beracun setiap harinya, melainkan juga setiap orang yang melintas di kawasan itu. Air tanah, yang sebelum terjadi semburan lumpur, dapat digunakan untuk mencuci, mandi dan memasak, kini juga telah tercemar. Penyakit gatal-gatal adalah sesuatu yang biasa dialami warga Porong jika mereka tetap memaksakan diri menggunakan air tanah untuk mandi sehari-hari. Akibat krisis air bersih di Porong, kini warga harus mengeluarkan uang tambahan untuk mendapatkan air bersih. Rata-rata warga Porong harus menyisihkan uang Rp2.000/hari untuk membeli air bersih yang hanya digunakan untuk air minum dan memasak. Uang yang kecil bagi pemilik Lapindo dan petinggi republik ini, tapi uang sebesar itu sangat berarti bagi warga di Porong, Sidoarjo. Selain berdampak buruk secara ekologi dan kesehatan, lumpur Lapindo berdampak buruk secara sosial bagi warga Porong. Dampak buruk itu salah satunya menimpa anak-anak. Kini sebagian dari mereka terpaksa putus sekolah. Menyusutnya jumlah siswa dan guru di SDN Kedungbendo III dapat dijadikan contoh dalam hal ini. Siswa SDN Kedungbendo III misalnya, sebelum muncul semburan lumpur Lapindo berjumlah 553 orang. Namun, kini hanya tersisa 30 orang. Dan lebih parah lagi, dari 15 orang tenaga pendidik, kini hanya menyisakan tiga orang. Meskipun sudah banyak media massa yang memberitakan persoalan tersebut, anehnya pemerintah seperti membiarkan saja semua itu terjadi. Yang menjadi fokus pemerintah hanya persoalan jual beli aset fisik, berupa rumah dan tanah. Seakan-akan jika persoalan itu dapat diselesaikan, persoalan lumpur Lapindo sudah dianggap selesai. Dampak buruk lumpur Lapindo lainnya yang justru mengancam keberlanjutan kehidupan tidak dianggap penting oleh pemerintah. Pemerintah tetap pada keyakinannya untuk mengikuti seruan iklan Lapindo bahwa semburan lumpur di Sidoarjo adalah bencana alam. Sepertinya seruan iklan Lapindo lebih penting untuk diperhatikan dan diikuti pemerintah daripada hasil laporan BPK, dokumen rahasia Medco, dan juga mayoritas pendapat pakar pengeboran internasional yang mengatakan bahwa semburan lumpur di Sidoarjo terjadi akibat pengeboran. Jika pola penanganan kasus Lapindo seperti tersebut terus dilanjutkan pada 2011, dapat dipastikan Sidoarjo benar-benar kolaps, baik secara ekologi maupun sosial. Pemerintah sebagai pihak yang memiliki mandat melindungi warganya harus segera bertindak. Salah satunya adalah membuat payung hukum baru untuk mengatur pertanggungjawaban Lapindo di luar persoalan jual beli aset. Warga Sidoarjo bukan sekadar angka dalam statistik kependudukan yang baru diperhatikan menjelang pemilu. Saat ini mereka butuh perhatian dan pembelaan dari pemerintah secara nyata. Tidak perlu menunggu hingga tahun 2014, jika pemerintah benar-benar ingin menyelamatkan warga Porong dan bukan sekadar politik pencitraan. Ironi kekayaan migas di Jawa Timur yang justru membuat warganya menderita selama hampir lima tahun harus segera diakhiri bukan dilanjutkan. Oleh Firdaus Cahyadi Knowledge Sharing Officer for Sustainable Development OneWorld-Indonesia Menyelisik Politik Transportasi 2011 Rabu, 12 Januari 2011 00:01 WIB 556 Dibaca | 8 Komentar Oleh Ansel Alaman, Pengajar Unika Atma Jaya dan Binus University PIDATO Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono tanggal 16 Agustus 2010 tentang nota keuangan untuk APBN tahun 2011 mematok pertumbuhan ekonomi 6,3% yang didukung oleh pembangunan infrastruktur, termasuk transportasi dan energi. Dari Rp1.202 triliun APBN 2011, Kementerian Perhubungan/transportasi mendapat alokasi anggaran Rp21,661 triliun. Presiden SBY menyatakan bahwa arah dasar program tahun 2011 adalah pengentasan 'tri-pro' yakni pro-growth (pertumbuhan ekonomi), pro-poor (pengentasan penduduk miskin) dan pro-job (penciptaan lapangan kerja baru). Bagaimana transportasi hingga 2010 dan imperatif 2011? Transportasi darat dan KA Penduduk Indonesia tahun 2010 berjumlah 237,5 juta lebih jiwa dan sekitar 75%-80% berada di kota kabupaten dan perdesaan. Itu berarti antara 75%-80% warga masyarakat masih menggunakan jalan beraspal, kerikil, dan jalan tanah. Badan Pusat Statistik (2008) mencatat panjang bentangan jalan seluruh Indonesia adalah 437.759 km, terdiri dari jalan negara 34.628 km, jalan provinsi 40.125 km dan jalan kabupaten/kota 363.006 km. Sementara keterangan Dephub, hingga tahun 2009 panjang jalan negara adalah 38.569,83 km tersebar di 33 provinsi. Jalan tol sepanjang 757,47 km berada di Pulau Sumatra 42,70 km, Jawa 697,12 km, dan Sulawesi 17,65 km. Kondisi hingga saat ini bervariasi antara baik, sedang, rusak dan rusak berat. Tahun 2008 kerusakan paling parah justru jalan kabupaten, yakni 59.110 km. Itu artinya kelompok masyarakat kecil di perdesaan yang seharusnya menjadi fondasi pertumbuhan, justru belum menikmati pelayanan negara bidang prasarana transportasi agar mobilitas mudah, murah, cepat dan nyaman. Padahal, jika dikonversi dengan jumlah kendaraan bermotor yang beroperasi (BPS,2008) berjumlah 65.273.451 unit. Terdiri dari mobil penumpang sekitar 9,8 juta lebih unit (17,1%), bis 2,5 juta lebih unit (22,58%), truk 5,1 juta lebih (17,3%) dan sepeda motor 47,6 juta unit lebih (15,6%). Itu berarti

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rakyat kebanyakan menggunakan bus umum, yang sehari-hari melintas di sepanjang 59.110 km yang sebagian besar rusak berat. Belum lagi usia operasional moda sudah tua, sering mengalami kecelakaan, yang jelas melanggar UU No 22/2009 tentang Lalu Lintas dan Angkutan Jalan (LLAJ). Sementara di subsektor perkeretaapian, total panjang rel KA 2009 adalah 4.480 km. Rel yang dilalui KA berkecepatan di bawah 60 km/jam sepanjang 1.078 km; kecepatan 60-80 km/jam panjangnya 1.093 km dan rel dengan kecepatan 80-120 km/jam sepanjang 2.609 km. Artinya, hanya ada 1.078 km prasarana yang disediakan bagi angkutan KA ekonomi bagi masyarakat berpenghasilan rendah (MBR). Belum lagi rencana kenaikan harga tiket penumpang kelas ekonomi tahun 2011, berkisar Rp500 sampai Rp8.000, yang kemudian ditunda pelaksanaannya. Sementara itu, KA eksekutif dengan jarak tempuh 2.609 km dipenuhi golongan menengah ke atas, memiliki waktu tempuh lebih cepat, sarana lebih nyaman, lebih aman, sekalipun mereka membayar mahal. Persoalannya, dengan 889 kereta api yang kita miliki tahun 2010, bagaimana mewujudkan keadilan proporsional di tahun 2011? Sebab program pemerintah 2011 (raker DPR 31/8/2010) diprioritaskan antara lain 'mendukung program pengentasan kemiskinan melalui upaya penyediaan aksesibilitas dan kegiatan keperintisan baik transportasi darat, perkeretaapian', dan tidak melanggar asas dan tujuan UU No 23/2007 tentang Perkeretaapian. Transportasi udara dan laut Tahun 2008 (data BPS) kita memiliki 15 perusahaan penerbangan terjadwal dan tahun 2004-2008 telah mengangkut 7,3 juta lebih penumpang oleh 55.786 unit aircraft. Sementara keterangan Menhub (raker DPR, Okt/2010), tahun 2010 kita memiliki 61 perusahaan angkutan udara dan telah mengangkut 48 juta lebih penumpang oleh 786 aircraft, yang beroperasi di 183 rute komersial dan 131 rute perintis. Rute-rute itu menghubungkan 87 kota dalam negeri dan 37 kota luar negeri dengan dukungan 189 bandara umum (komersial) seluruh Indonesia. Namun, publik menggugat komitmen pro-growth, pro-poor dan pro-job daerah tertentu seperti Indonesia Timur. Kenyataan masih banyak beroperasi pesawat berusia tua yang tidak laku di daerah lain, menimbulkan kecemburuan sosial. Jika hal itu terus berlanjut, tidakkah kita hanya mau mengejar pertumbuhan (growth), tapi mengabaikan keadilan. Sebab sekalipun dunia penerbangan kita maju cukup pesat, dominasi pasar tak terkendali, tidakkah menciptakan ketimpangan sosial? Sebab, akumulasi currency (pertukaran dan peredaran uang) jatuh ke dunia industri, yang dikendalikan pemodal besar (asing dan dalam negeri). Pernyataannya, seperti apa intervensi pemerintah, agar penerbangan ke daerah bencana, terpencil dan perbatasan tetap prioritas dengan discount-price yang layak? Tujuannya, menekan ketimpangan layanan transportasi, agar mendukung prioritas subsektor ini 2011, yakni antara lain 'meningkatkan pelayanan angkutan udara perintis (di 132 bandara, 128 rute); pembangunan/peningkatan bandara di ibu kota provinsi, kabupaten dan daerah pemekaran (23 bandara); pembangunan/peningkatan bandara di daerah perbatasan, terpencil dan rawan bencana (57 bandara)', sesuai amanat UU No 1/2009 tentang Penerbangan? Adapun transportasi laut, program prioritas 2011 adalah pembangunan prasarana seperti rehabilitasi/fasilitas pelabuhan/gedung di 320 lokasi, pembangunan pelabuhan terluar/perbatasan di 21 lokasi. Selain itu, pembangunan sarana kapal perintis (9 unit), dan lainnya. Tanpa mengabaikan pembangunan fisik yang setiap tahun dilakukan, publik menuntut pembaruan mind-set kebijakan politik transportasi laut. Sebab perjalanan laut tidak sekadar perpindahan orang dan barang, tetapi built-in perjalanan wisata bahari, momen asimilasi sosial karena menginap berhari-hari, ajang apresiasi hiburan, pasar rakyat, dengan tetap mengutamakan keamanan dan keselamatan transportasi, sebagaimana menjadi asas dan tujuan UU No 17/2008 tentang Pelayaran. Konsumen tidak lagi merasa bosan, kehilangan waktu, tidak nyaman, dan trauma kasus tenggelam. The WTO game is on, but who is playing? Muhammad Ikhwan, Jakarta | Sun, 01/16/2011 11:33 AM | Opinion A|A|A| Its on again. The latest political signals from the recent G20 Summit in Seoul and the APEC Summit in Tokyo implied a need to complete World Trade Organization (WTO) talks in 2011. This will translate into bustling work for director general Pascal Lamy to launch intensive negotiations in the beginning of 2011. A revised on text of modalities covering general agriculture, industry and services is expected to emerge at the end of first quarter of 2011. This has raised questions on what happened to the earlier text agreed upon in December 2008. A critical window of opportunity, albeit narrow, is closing, leaving one last opportunity to finish the endgame of the almost-10-year-long Doha Development Agenda (DDA). If we look closely, Lamy has been quite swift in maneuvering. He pulled the strings of the G20 and the APEC countries and then hoped to convert their political will into a real WTO deal. Nonetheless, in this play Lamy still does not have the ball. The member countries do and we still need to calculate who will take the ball and run with it. The most suspicious player is the US. People may already aware that the Barack Obama administration is now focused on export promotion as a job creation strategy. Obama might be trying to jumpstart DDA as a way to get more appreciation from the business community. As we witnessed during Obamas recent Asian journey, he was a powerful salesman for opening emerging economic markets such as India and Indonesia while he bolstered economic ties between the already established ones such as Japan and South Korea. Yes, playing defensively can be no longer a strategy for the US in global trade. In fact, the US has been reportedly been gung-ho for the business, at least in regional and bilateral level.

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For instance Indonesia and India have signed a bilateral strategic partnership agreement, which is another step towards a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). South Korea has been in on-and-off negotiations with the US for a bilateral FTA since 2006. Last but not least, the US reportedly has been arranging a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to expand a free trade initiative to APEC countries an agreement that could be worth 90 percent of the worlds economy. India and Brazil, representing the G20, were keen to get the ball some years ago. Right now, they are not that interested anymore in the endgame of the WTO. Bear in mind that the latter country has just inaugurated a new administration. However, the only thing that keeps agreements from being signed for this group of emerging economies is the opening of the developed countries markets. They want more market access, for sure. As for China, it seems that it does not even need the WTO to help its skyrocketing economy. On the rough side of the pitch, we see the players from the group of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small and Vulnerable Economies (SVEs). Zambia said it welcomed the political signals and believed they would provide a clear political message to move the negotiation process forward. Nonetheless, Zambia highlighted that in doing so, the development dimension of the DDA should not be lost. Meanwhile, Barbados emphasized how agriculture remained the driver of negotiations and the importance of a more transparent and inclusive process. These two groups have usually been marginalized left out of the small group process or the Green Room. If this really a game, they have never had the ball. On agriculture, we should set our focus on the G33. Their proposed Special Products and Special Safeguard Mechanism (SP/SSM) has been considered as a potential deal breaker for the WTO talks. The proposal is important for protecting developing countries in the free trade world. In this dimension, a strong SSM means a strong bargaining position for developing countries as well. They surely can kick the ball, but as history has shown Indonesia and Philippines are not as tough in negotiations as countries such as India and Brazil. If the WTO is a real team and Lamy a real manager, then key players such as the US, the European Union, and some countries in the G20 and the G33 will be crucial in negotiations. There is a long history of imbalance in the institution; many players on the pitch have often been left behind, or have not gotten the ball at all. The season is still long enough that they will have to face many global trade obstacles ahead. This unbalanced team will have difficulties in surviving, and even more difficulties in solving problems. As some ambassadors from the LDCs and SVEs said: Doha supposed to be a development agenda. Thats true. No country should be left behind.

The writer is head of the Indonesian Farmers Unions (SPI) International Relations Department. The opinion expressed in this article is his own. US Fed Policy Cycle Reveals Many Years Left in Recovery Amity Shlaes | January 19, 2011 The reason Hu Jintao decided to visit the United States this week is that the Chinese leader wants to know when the US economy and its currency will be stable and strong again. Its good the Chinese are known for patience because Hu may have to wait a while. At least thats the view according to John Taylor, a Stanford University economist who has influenced Federal Reserve policies in the past. Fed officials often refer to the Taylor Rule, a formula devised by Taylor that shows how a central bank should manage interest rates in response to inflation and other data. At a recent joint lunch of the American Economics Association and the American Finance Association, Taylor, a Treasury undersecretary in President George W. Bushs administration, delivered a second rule. Taylor Rule II doesnt have math. And it doesnt say what the Fed should do. It predicts what the central bank will do. Taylor says a period of less Fed intervention and stable strong growth will come, along with a strengthening dollar. But by the time this happens, Hu, now 68, might be approaching 80. Taylor studied the past 60 years of US policy and found that the Fed moves in a pendulum pattern, swinging between discretion-based decisions and loose money on one hand and rules-based choices and tighter money on the other. Following World War II, many policy makers worried that the Fed would serve as a perpetual monetary handmaiden to Congress and the president as they pursued interventionist and Keynesian policies, including targeting interest rates. But in 1951, the Fed negotiated a public accord with the Treasury that made clear its position that the central bank could follow its own interest-rate rules.

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For the Fed to thumb its nose at the Treasury was not as easy as it sounds. In 1950, unemployment was rising and the Korean War began. Chinas involvement in US affairs was on a whole other level. Chinese soldiers were pouring into Korea, forcing US troops to retreat. Yet the Fed had enough support to make the accord. Economist Allan Meltzer chronicles some of this in his indispensable two-volume A History of the Federal Reserve. In the 1960s and 70s, the Fed moved back toward discretion-based policies. Along with that came cooperation with the Treasury. As Taylor noted in his presentation, this basically meant looser money, and a series of boom-bust cycles in monetary policy with the inflation rate rising steadily higher at each cycle. This discretionary period reached its peak in 1973 when then-Fed chairman Arthur Burns argued that wage rates and prices no longer respond as they once did to the play of market forces. The central bank did respond to inflation, but not systematically. The outcome was the stagflation of the 1970s, a period when communist regimes started noticing the United States could be vulnerable. Rules became fashionable again in the 1980s and 90s, beginning with the arrival of Paul Volcker as Fed chairman in 1979. Volcker emphasized monetarist methods for controlling money. Though the bank struggled with which rules to follow, the central bankers made it clear they didnt like ad hoc behavior or inflation. The Fed, Taylor says, began to announce its interest-rate decisions immediately after making them, and explaining its intentions regarding the future. This transparency itself sent a signal: The Feds moves and its direction are less arbitrary than in the past. A look at the first decade and a half of Alan Greenspans tenure as chairman of the central bank shows it setting the Fed funds rate at levels consistent with the original Taylor Rule. Fiscal policy in these years likewise became less discretionary. Taylor sees consensus on the value of stability as one of the causes for the moderation of the business cycle. After 2002 or so, however, the central bank began to diverge from the Taylor Rule, keeping the Fed funds rate lower than the rule warranted. It also initiated two rounds of quantitative easing. Overall, Taylor discerns a clear positive correlation between rules-based policy and good economic performance. He sees the rules causing the growth. But what if the mechanism works the other way, with poor performance by the general economy provoking the Fed into action? The timing does not back up this Fed activism-in-a- crisis thesis. In the 1960s and 1970s the Fed moved toward discretion long before the stagflation, Taylor says. In the decade just completed, the Fed moved toward discretion well before the 2008 crash. Soon after Hu heads back to China, Congress will be writing new Fed law. Some legislators want to follow the advice of Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and change the statute governing the Fed to narrow its discretion and restrict its job to controlling inflation. Such a law might speed up the Taylor cycle in a fashion welcome to anyone investing in the United States. Amity Shlaes is a senior fellow in economic history at the Council on Foreign Relations and a Bloomberg News columnist. Karim Raslan: Indonesian Tourist Karim Raslan | January 19, 2011 Over the past 30 years, the Asia-Pacific region has experienced successive waves of tourists as different countries have freed up travel regulations. The first and most dramatic was the Japanese in the 1980s, followed by the South Koreans in the 90s. In 2007, Beijing opened the floodgates and the Chinese became a ubiquitous presence in cities like Hong Kong, Bangkok and Singapore. This wave was more than matched by the Indian middle classes. Well now, theres a new giant on the horizon: Indonesia. With the removal of the hated Rp 2.5 million ($275) fiskal exit tax, Indonesians are set to become Asias next great travelers.

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Since its introduction in 2004, fiskal had been one of the major obstacles for Indonesians especially the middle class to travel the world. With a population of 240 million and a booming economy the pent-up demand for travel will be extraordinary. Many observers have decried the loss of fiskal revenue. Others are dismayed at the potential negative impact on domestic tourism. Both these views are important. However, a nationwide rise in prosperity has provided an opportunity for tens of millions to travel beyond their hometowns and provinces. Witness the congestion in local destinations such as Malang, Makassar, Brastagi, Bandung and Yogyakarta during national holidays Yogyakartas Alun-Alun sometimes resembles the largest bus park in the world! The most important point to me is that ordinary Indonesians will be able to travel and explore the world. For too long, fiskal has acted as a drag on the internationalization of the nations way of thinking. By allowing its citizens to travel, Indonesia is giving them the freedom to experiment, to experience and to open their eyes. Traveling will broaden the horizons for millions of ordinary Indonesians, enabling them to refresh and perhaps reaffirm their global views. Rather than just reading in papers and watching travel shows on Discovery Channel, now ordinary Indonesians who are riding the economic boom can freely roam the British Museum, climb the Great Wall of China, visit Indias Taj Mahal and stand atop the Empire State Building. Indeed, Indonesia needs more internationalists more young people who can switch between worlds explaining and interpreting the republic to outsiders and vice-versa. In this respect one thinks of people like the diplomat Dino Patti Djalal, the politicians Yenny Wahid and Ganjar Pranowo, the editor Meidyatama and the businessmen Patrick Walujo and Sandi Uno. Lifting the fiskal provides Indonesians a passport to the global community in a very real sense. Every Indonesian tourist abroad will become an ambassador promoting Wonderful Indonesia, going well beyond diplomatic reaches. Recently I discovered a series of travel books catering to young Indonesian backpackers (much like Lonely Planet and Rough Guides). Called Keliling Dunia, the series provides outlines for those who are making their first trips to Southern China, India, Malaysia and Thailand. The guides ferret out the best bargains and work on quite tiny budgets Rp 2 million for 16 days in China, for example. But this is how it all begins. Young people (and especially university students) must explore. In this way theyll end up meeting their counterparts from Southeast Asia, Brazil and Australia as they backpack across the continents. This will contribute to the internationalization of Indonesia: not just in shaping the nations global views but confirming to the world that Indonesia has confidently arrived on the global stage. This was indeed the recipe for internationalization of other Asian economic giants like China and India. Their respective economic booms were followed by a sharp increase in outbound travel by Chinese and Indians. Approximately 54 million Chinese traveled abroad in 2010, and the number is expected to reach 100 million by the end of the decade. India had roughly 11 million outbound tourists last year and they spent more money per person per day abroad than the Chinese, injecting more than $10 billion into the global economy. Indonesians are slowly picking up.

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In 2006 there were around 4.4 million outbound tourists but I am sure the number will exceed 10 million very soon. This opening up will also benefit the regions a great deal as direct air routes between cities such as Yogyakarta, Medan, Palembang, Balikpapan and Makassar with destinations such as Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia allow local businesspeople direct access to foreign markets and capital without the onerous detour through Jakarta. With fiskal removed, Indonesians must and will travel. Bon voyage!

Karim Raslan is a columnist who divides his time between Malaysia and Indonesia.

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