Tata Motors, Ltd. TTM: Tata Reports 2Q Results

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Tata Motors, Ltd. TTM [NYSE]


Morningstar Rating Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Grade Industry Sector
QQQQQ 4.24 11.00 5.50 22.00 High None C Auto Makers Consumer Goods
Per share prices in USD

Tata Reports 2Q Results Daimler, Volvo, International Trucks, and Nissan are
expected to enter the local commercial vehicle market,
where Tata enjoys 60% share. Tata is launching a slew of
new products in hopes of containing the effects of
by Anil Daka
Analyst Note Nov. 03, 2008 competition, but we believe it will lose market share in
Stock Analyst
Analysts covering this company do not Tightening credit conditions hit Tata Motors’ the commercial vehicle segment in the long run.
own its stock.
second-quarter performance, as the Indian auto major saw
six years of growth come to a grinding halt. Revenue of Turning around Jaguar Land Rover might be the toughest
Pricing data through January 21, 2009.
Rating updated as of
$1.62 billion was down 2% year over year, and net profit challenge Tata Motors has ever faced. These two iconic
January 21, 2009.
tumbled 39% to $79 million. Jaguar Land Rover also brands bled money through the years Ford owned them
Currency amounts expressed with "$" reported a 12% dip in sales, to 85,499 units. During the and turned cash flow positive only in 2007. High research
are in U.S. dollars (USD) unless
quarter, the firm raised $900 million in a rights issue to costs and capital expenditures will require significant cash
otherwise denoted.
fund the purchase of Jaguar Land Rover. Tata also outlays, while reduced demand for sport-utility vehicles,
Stock stringent pollution norms, and quality issues weaken the
20.0 Price announced a new location to manufacture its
ultra-low-cost subcompact vehicle, Tata Nano, ending demand for products. However, with the launch of Jaguar
14.0
months of dispute with local farmers at the original plant XF this year and Land Rover’s focus on reducing emissions,
site in Singur. The firm will use its captive financing arm we are optimistic about the future of Jaguar Land Rover.
to greater effect in the coming months as external sources
8.0
of credit decrease. While the credit squeeze for customers Tata Nano faces production problems because of
6.0 will be an obvious head wind in the coming months, we continued local opposition at the plant site. We are also
5.0
think lower fuel and steel prices will allow Tata greater wary about the firm’s potential to make profits at the
4.0
room to manage its profitability. The current crisis does sticker price of $2,500. In addition, the firm has indicated
05 06 07 08 09
not change our long-term view of the company, and we that it will only manufacture the Nano components and
are maintaining our fair value estimate. that assembly will be done by local entrepreneurs. We are
skeptical about the resultant quality of the product.
However, the massive market potential for such a
Thesis Aug. 04, 2008 low-cost product should keep Tata Motors running.
High manufacturing costs are forcing Tata Motors to raise
selling prices, but price increases coupled with rising auto Tata Motors is also working on innovative eco-friendly
financing rates can dry up demand. This comes at a time technologies like using compressed air to run automobiles.
when Tata has to focus on running the newly acquired It is also developing an electric car. We believe such a
Jaguar Land Rover profitably and work toward a focus prepares it better for future challenges.
successful launch of the much-talked-about low-cost car,
the Tata Nano. While the current business environment is
Valuation
challenging, we believe strong business fundamentals and
an exciting product lineup will carry the company through. We believe Tata Motors is worth $11 per share. We
explicitly forecast industry volume and Tata Motors’
Strong local demand helped Tata Motors increase revenue market share for each operating sector to derive a growth
at a 25% compound annual rate over the past five years. estimate. We think a host of new offerings including Tata
Operating margins averaged an impressive 9.7% during Nano will help the top line grow at 12.6% over the next
this period. However, increasing manufacturing costs and five years. Over the long run, higher raw-material costs,
rising interest rates will put the brakes on this growth and increasing competition, and higher capital expenditures
shrink margins. Furthermore, international players like will compress operating margins to around 5%. We
Tata Motors, Ltd. TTM [NYSE]
Morningstar Rating Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Grade Industry Sector
QQQQQ 4.24 11.00 5.50 22.00 High None C Auto Makers Consumer Goods
Per share prices in USD

Close Competitors Currency(Mil) Market Cap TTM Sales Oper Income Net Income
Government spending on infrastructure continues to be
on an upswing, and Tata Motors will be the biggest
Tata Motors, Ltd. USD 1,635 8,102 526 315
beneficiary.
Toyota Motor Corporation USD 116,404 249,777 19,295 15,187
The Jaguar XF has received enthusiastic response, as
Honda Motor Company USD 42,950 105,559 8,344 5,253
did the XK last year. We think this marks a turning point
Ford Motor Company USD 4,993 161,201 -3,180 -11,507 for Jaguar Land Rover.
Morningstar data as of January 21, 2009.

performed a discounted cash-flow analysis to estimate the


Bears Say
fair value of Jaguar Land Rover as a stand-alone entity.
We assume that the proposed equity offering from Tata Every major automobile player in the world is set to
Motors will dilute equity by a maximum of 42%. Over the enter the Indian automobile market. Tata Motors will
next few years, we think the firm will see substantially probably lose share as competition heats up.
higher capital expenditures as it expands production As India continues to grow, high inflation and high
capacity and launch new models. Our projected cash flows interest rates can stifle auto demand.
are discounted at our estimate of the firm’s cost of capital Ford invested billions of dollars in Jaguar Land Rover
of 12.7%. and never realized a profit in 18 years. It is difficult to
predict if Tata will have better luck in getting these
lines to turn a profit.
Risk
The auto industry is characterized by cyclicality of
Financial Overview
demand, and Tata Motors’ revenue will mirror that. A
substantial portion of the firm’s revenue is linked with the Growth: Tata Motors saw explosive growth in the past
success of future product offerings like the Nano, the because of a booming local economy and government
Jaguar XF, and the expected replacement for Jaguar XJ. spending on infrastructure. However, we believe
Further, steel and energy constitute a big part of tightening interest rates and intense competition will
manufacturing costs, and fluctuations in these prices moderate the growth to about 12.5% over the next five
make profitability estimates uncertain. With the years.
acquisition of Jaguar Land Rover, the firm will derive more
than 66% of its revenue overseas, subjecting it to Profitability: Tata Motors will see reduced profitability
significant currency risk. because of increasing raw-material costs and intense
local competition. A shift in the product mix toward
low-margin products like the Nano will exacerbate this
Bulls Say problem. Jaguar Land Rover has a spotty record of
At eight cars per thousand people, India’s car profitability, and its inclusion in Tata Motors could
penetration is among the lowest in the world. Tata severely dent operating margins. However, we believe the
Motors is in the right place at the right time to take firm is capable of maintaining enough margins to increase
advantage of this low level of car ownership. economic value for shareholders.
In the Nano, Tata has a product that could change the
face of the Indian automobile industry. Financial Health: We are concerned that Tata Motors

© 2009 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported. ®
Certain financial data is proprietary to ComStock, a division of Interactive Data Corporation, and Multex.com, Inc. The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely.
This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission.
ß
To order reprints or get permission to use this information, call 312-696-6100.
Tata Motors, Ltd. TTM [NYSE]
Morningstar Rating Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Grade Industry Sector
QQQQQ 4.24 11.00 5.50 22.00 High None C Auto Makers Consumer Goods
Per share prices in USD

increased its debt/equity ratio to 1.12 in the first quarter


of fiscal 2009 compared with 0.48 for fiscal 2008.
However, we believe it will generate enough cash to
service debt.

Company Overview
Profile: Tata Motors is India’s largest automobile
manufacturer, with revenue of $ 7.3 billion. It designs,
manufactures and finances commercial vehicles and cars.
It is a part of the $60 billion Tata Group that is in turn
owned by charitable trusts. It has a technical and
manufacturing collaboration with Fiat of Italy. In June
2008, Tata Motors acquired Jaguar Land Rover from Ford
for $2.3 billion.

Strategy: Tata Motors hopes to leverage its strong


industry position, wide manufacturing footprint, and brand
recognition to offer high-quality, low-cost products. The
firm hopes to expand its international presence through
acquisitions and collaborations.

Management: At the helm of Tata Motors is Ratan Tata,


chairman of the board. He is widely credited as being the
visionary behind the $2,500 car and is considered India’s
most powerful businessman. Ravi Kant is CEO and
managing director of Tata Motors and has been with the
firm since 2000. The 10-member board has four
independent directors, but we doubt their effectiveness,
given their minority. We think executive compensation is
reasonable, but we would like to see it more closely tied
to the operational metrics of the firm.

© 2009 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported. ®
Certain financial data is proprietary to ComStock, a division of Interactive Data Corporation, and Multex.com, Inc. The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely.
This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission.
ß
To order reprints or get permission to use this information, call 312-696-6100.
Tata Motors, Ltd. TTM [NYSE]

Morningstar Rating Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Grade Industry Sector
QQQQQ 4.24 11.00 5.50 22.00 High None C Auto Makers Consumer Goods
Per share prices in USD
Analyst Notes

Nov. 03, 2008 Tata Reports 2Q Results


with local farmers at the original plant site in Singur. The
Tightening credit conditions hit Tata Motors’ firm will use its captive financing arm to greater effect in
second-quarter performance, as the Indian auto major saw the coming months as external sources of credit decrease.
six years of growth come to a grinding halt. Revenue of While the credit squeeze for customers will be an obvious
$1.62 billion was down 2% year over year, and net profit head wind in the coming months, we think lower fuel and
tumbled 39% to $79 million. Jaguar Land Rover also steel prices will allow Tata greater room to manage its
reported a 12% dip in sales, to 85,499 units. During the profitability. The current crisis does not change our
quarter, the firm raised $900 million in a rights issue to long-term view of the company, and we are maintaining our
fund the purchase of Jaguar Land Rover. Tata also fair value estimate.
announced a new location to manufacture its ultra-low-cost
subcompact vehicle, Tata Nano, ending months of dispute

Disclaimers & Disclosures


No Morningstar employees are officers or directors of this company. Morningstar Inc. does not own more than 1% of the shares of this company. Analysts
covering this company do not own its stock. The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely.
This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

© 2009 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported. ®
Certain financial data is proprietary to ComStock, a division of Interactive Data Corporation, and Multex.com, Inc. The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely.
This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission.
ß
To order reprints or get permission to use this information, call 312-696-6100.
Morningstar ® Stock Data Sheet Pricing data thru Jan. 21, 2009 Rating updated as of Jan. 21, 2009 Fiscal year-end: March

Tata Motors, Ltd. TTM Sales Mil


$8,102
Mkt Cap Mil
$1,635
Industry
Auto
Sector
Consumer Goods
Makers

Tata Motors is India’s largest automobile manufacturer, with Morningstar Rating Last Price Fair Value Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Grade
revenue of $ 7.3 billion. It designs, manufactures and QQQQQ $4.24 $11.00 High None C
finances commercial vehicles and cars. It is a part of the $60
billion Tata Group that is in turn owned by charitable trusts. 12.18 14.53 21.99 22.11 20.05 5.41 Annual Price High
It has a technical and manufacturing collaboration with Fiat 8.65 9.25 13.93 15.26 3.50 4.00 Low
Recent Splits
of Italy. In June 2008, Tata Motors acquired Jaguar Land
Price Volatility
Rover from Ford for $2.3 billion. Monthly High/Low
14.0
Rel Strength to S&P 500
52 week High/Low $
20.05 - 3.50
6.0
10 Year High/Low $
3.0 22.11 - 3.50
Bear-Market Rank
Bombay House 24 Homi Mody Street 1.0 0 (10=worst)
Mumbai, II 400-001
Trading Volume Million
Phone: 9122 56568484 Website: http://www.tatamotors.com 1.0
0.6

Growth Rates Compound Annual 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD Stock Performance
Grade: B 1 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr . . . . . . 24.1 44.5 -5.8 -75.7 -4.7 Total Return %
Revenue % 10.2 22.6 . . . . . . . . 21.1 30.9 -9.3 -37.2 6.2 +/- Market
Operating Income % -10.4 8.0 . . . . . . . . 19.8 17.7 1.7 -25.1 -26.6 +/- Industry
Earnings/Share % -21.1 0.8 . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.4 2.0 7.9 8.3 Dividend Yield %
Dividends % 15.6 . . .
. . . . . 4267 5198 7821 7268 1715 1635 Market Cap $Mil
Book Value/Share % 15.2 20.6 . .
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM Financials
Stock Total Return % -75.5 -32.3 . .
. . . . . 6548 4422 5446 7354 8983 8102 Revenue $Mil
+/- Industry -43.0 -21.6 . .
. . . . . 64.2 20.9 21.3 20.5 21.2 21.2 Gross Margin %
+/- Market . . . .
. . . . . 308 419 454 586 583 526 Oper Income $Mil
Profitability Analysis . . . . . 4.7 9.5 8.3 8.0 6.5 6.5 Operating Margin %
Grade: D Current 5 Yr Avg Ind Mkt . . . . . 193 295 340 402 349 315 Net Income $Mil
Return on Equity % 14.4 21.9 -3.4 23.7 . . . . . 0.55 0.78 0.88 1.01 0.88 0.79 Earnings Per Share $
Return on Assets % 4.4 7.6 -0.6 9.4 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.29 0.37 0.33 Dividends $
. . . . .
Fixed Asset Turns 4.5 6.0 3.1 6.4 363 388 399 407 407 407 Shares Mil
. . . . .
Inventory Turns 8.4 8.2 9.8 12.7 2.40 3.46 4.78 6.02 5.60 5.60 Book Value Per Share $
. . . . .
Revenue/Employee $K 222.8 208.8 * 745.3 1010.7
. . . . . 599 508 128 388 873 873 Oper Cash Flow $Mil
Gross Margin % 21.2 29.6 20.0 34.8 -57 -172 -234 -535 -1024 -1024 Cap Spending $Mil
. . . . .
Operating Margin % 6.5 7.4 5.3 17.8 541 336 -106 -147 -151 -151 Free Cash Flow $Mil
. . . . .
Net Margin % 3.9 5.0 -0.7 9.9
Free Cash Flow/Rev % . . 4.3 0.1 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM Profitability
R&D/Rev % 2.7 0.0 . 11.5 . . . . . 7.8 9.7 8.3 7.7 4.4 4.4 Return on Assets %
. . . . . 23.8 28.3 21.9 21.0 14.4 14.4 Return on Equity %
Financial Position . . . . . 2.9 6.7 6.2 5.5 3.9 3.9 Net Margin %
Grade: 03-07 $Mil 03-08 $Mil
. . . . . 2.65 1.45 1.33 1.40 1.14 1.14 Asset Turnover
Cash 176 284 . . . . . 3.0 2.8 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 Financial Leverage
Inventories 780 856
Receivables 1105 1307 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 03-08 Financial Health
Current Assets 2621 3104 . . . . . -413 63 206 -157 -1483 -1483 Working Capital $Mil
. . . . . 243 587 610 926 1465 1465 Long-Term Debt $Mil
Fixed Assets 1464 2483
. . . . . 841 1292 1818 2102 2624 2624 Total Equity $Mil
Intangibles 235 251
. . . . . 0.29 0.45 0.34 0.44 0.56 0.44 Debt/Equity
Total Assets 6235 9204
Payables 1046 1372 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM Valuation
Short-Term Debt 895 1720 . . . . . 20.5 17.4 21.8 16.4 6.1 5.8 Price/Earnings
Current Liabilities 2779 4586 . . . . . 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.5 P/E vs. Market
Long-Term Debt 926 1465 . . . . . 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.2 Price/Sales
Total Liabilities 4133 6581 . . . . . 5.0 4.2 4.3 3.1 0.8 0.8 Price/Book
. . . . . 6.8 15.8 65.8 17.3 2.5 2.4 Price/Cash Flow
Total Equity 2102 2624
Valuation Analysis Quarterly Results Industry Peers by Market Cap
Current 5 Yr Avg Ind Mkt Revenue $Mil Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 Mkt Cap $Mil Rev $Mil P/E ROE%
Price/Earnings 5.8 16.4 -17.7 12.4 Most Recent Period . . . . Tata Motors, Ltd. 1635 8102 5.8 14.4
Forward P/E 11.0 . . 11.0 Prior Year Period 1907.8 1896.9 1858.1 1824.2 Toyota Motor Corpora 116404 249777 5.9 12.9
Price/Cash Flow 2.4 21.6 2.3 8.9 Rev Growth % Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 Honda Motor Company 42950 105559 6.3 13.3
Price/Free Cash Flow . . 5.2 14.5
Most Recent Period . . . .
Dividend Yield % 8.3 . 0.1 3.1 Major Fund Holders
Prior Year Period -96.8 -96.8 -97.0 -96.9
Price/Book 0.8 3.5 1.1 3.0 % of shares
Price/Sales 0.2 0.8 0.2 1.6 Earnings Per Share $ Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 Nuveen Tradewinds Global All-Cap A 0.13
PEG Ratio 1.1 . . 1.2 Most Recent Period . . . . ING Value Choice A 0.11
Prior Year Period 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.23 Nuveen Tradewinds Value Opportunities I 0.10
*3Yr Avg data is displayed in place of 5Yr Avg

© 2009 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported. ®
The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely. This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.
To order reprints or get permission to use this information, call 312-696-6100.
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Morningstar’s Approach to Rating Stocks

Our Key Investing Concepts At Morningstar, we evaluate stocks as pieces of a just on movement in the share price. If we think a stock’s
Economic Moat
business, not as pieces of paper. We think that purchasing fair value is $50, and the shares decline to $40 without
Discounted Cash Flow
Discount Rate shares of superior businesses at discounts to their much change in the value of the business, the star rating
Fair Value intrinsic value and allowing them to compound their value will go up. Our estimate of what the business is worth
Uncertainty over long periods of time is the surest way to create hasn’t changed, but the shares are more attractive as an
Margin of Safety
Consider Buying/Consider Selling wealth in the stock market. investment at $40 than they were at $50.
Stewardship Grades
We rate stocks 1 through 5 stars, with 5 the best and 1 Because we focus on the long-term value of businesses,
the worst. Our star rating is based on our analyst’s rather than short-term movements in stock prices, at times
estimate of how much a company’s business is worth per we may appear out of step with the overall stock market.
share. Our analysts arrive at this "fair value estimate" by When stocks are high, relatively few will receive our
forecasting how much excess cash--or "free cash highest rating of 5 stars. But when the market tumbles,
flow"--the firm will generate in the future, and then many more will likely garner 5 stars. Although you might
adjusting the total for timing and risk. Cash generated expect to see more 5-star stocks as the market rises, we
next year is worth more than cash generated several years find assets more attractive when they’re cheap.
down the road, and cash from a stable and consistently
profitable business is worth more than cash from a We calculate our star ratings nightly after the markets
cyclical or unsteady business. close, and issue them the following business day, which is
why the rating date on our reports will always be the
Stocks trading at meaningful discounts to our fair value previous business day. We update the text of our reports
estimates will receive high star ratings. For high-quality as new information becomes available, usually about once
businesses, we require a smaller discount than for or twice per quarter. That is why you’ll see two dates on
mediocre ones, for a simple reason: We have more every Morningstar stock report. Of course, we monitor
confidence in our cash-flow forecasts for strong market events and all of our stocks every business day, so
companies, and thus in our value estimates. If a stock’s our ratings always reflect our analyst’s current opinion.
market price is significantly above our fair value estimate,
it will receive a low star rating, no matter how wonderful
we think the business is. Even the best company is a bad Economic Moat
deal if an investor overpays for its shares. This is our assessment of a firm’s ability to earn returns
consistently above its cost of capital in the future, usually
Our fair value estimates don’t change very often, but by virtue of some competitive advantage. Competition
market prices do. So, a stock may gain or lose stars based tends to drive down such economic profits, but companies

Morningstar Research
Methodology for Valuing Competitive Economic Company Fair Value Uncertainty
Companies Analysis Moat Rating Valuation Estimate Assessment QQQQQ

Analyst conducts The depth of the Analyst considers DCF model leads to An uncertainty Q The current stock
company and industry firm’s competitive company financial the firm’s Fair Value assessment QQ price relative to fair
research: advantage is rated: statements and Estimate, which establishes the QQQ value, adjusted
competitive position anchors the rating margin of QQQQ for uncertainty,
Management None to forecast future framework. safety required for QQQQQ determines the
interviews Narrow cash flows. the stock rating. rating.
Conference calls Wide
Trade-show visits Assumptions are
Competitor, supplier, input into a dis-
distributor, and counted cash-flow
customer interviews model.

© 2009 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported. ®
Certain financial data is proprietary to ComStock, a division of Interactive Data Corporation, and Multex.com, Inc. The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely.
This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission.
ß
To order reprints or get permission to use this information, call 312-696-6100.
Morningstar’s Approach to Rating Stocks (continued)

that can earn them for an extended time by creating a Uncertainty


competitive advantage possess an economic moat. We To generate the Morningstar Uncertainty Rating, analysts
see these companies as superior investments. consider factors such as sales predictability, operating
leverage, and financial leverage. Analysts then classify
We’re big fans of companies that are low-cost producers, their ability to bound the fair value estimate for the stock
create high switching costs for their customers, or have into one of several uncertainty levels: Low, Medium, High,
strong brands or long-lasting patents, because all of these Very High, or Extreme. The greater the level of uncertainty,
characteristics allow companies to protect their the greater the discount to fair value required before a
competitive position. For example, Tiffany is far more stock can earn 5 stars, and the greater the premium to fair
profitable than a run-of-the-mill jewelry chain because it value before a stock earns a 1-star rating.
has a strong brand that creates a moat around its
business, allowing it to charge more than competitors.
Margin of Safety
This is the discount to fair value we would require before
Discounted Cash Flow recommending a stock. We think it’s always prudent to
This is a method for valuing companies that involves buy stocks for less than they’re worth.The margin of safety
projecting the amount of cash a business will generate in is like an insurance policy that protects investors from bad
the future, subtracting the amount of cash that the news or overly optimistic fair value estimates. We require
company will need to reinvest in its business, and using larger margins of safety for less predictable stocks, and
the result to calculate the worth of the firm. We use this smaller margins of safety for more predictable stocks.
technique to value nearly all of the companies we cover.

Consider Buying/Consider Selling


Discount Rate The consider buying price is the price at which a stock
We use this number to adjust the value of our forecasted would be rated 5 stars, and thus the point at which we
cash flows for the risk that they may not materialize. For a would consider the stock an extremely attractive
profitable company in a steady line of business, we’ll use purchase. Conversely, consider selling is the price at
a lower discount rate, also known as "cost of capital," which a stock would have a 1 star rating, at which point
than for a firm in a cyclical business with fierce we’d consider the stock overvalued, with low expected
competition, since there’s less risk clouding the firm’s returns relative to its risk.
future.

Stewardship Grades
Fair Value We evaluate the commitment to shareholders
This is the output of our discounted cash-flow valuation demonstrated by each firm’s board and management team
models, and is our per-share estimate of a company’s by assessing transparency, shareholder friendliness,
intrinsic worth. We adjust our fair values for off-balance incentives, and ownership. We aim to identify firms that
sheet liabilities or assets that a firm might have--for provide investors with insufficient or potentially
example, we deduct from a company’s fair value if it has misleading financial information, seek to limit the power
issued a lot of stock options or has an under-funded of minority shareholders, allow management to abuse its
pension plan. Our fair value estimate differs from a "target position, or which have management incentives that are
price" in two ways. First, it’s an estimate of what the not aligned with the interests of long-term shareholders.
business is worth, whereas a price target typically reflects The grades are assigned on an absolute scale--not relative
what other investors may pay for the stock. Second, it’s a to peers--and can be interpreted as follows: A means
long-term estimate, whereas price targets generally focus "Excellent," B means "Good," C means "Fair," D means
on the next two to 12 months. "Poor," and F means "Very Poor."

© 2009 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported. ®
Certain financial data is proprietary to ComStock, a division of Interactive Data Corporation, and Multex.com, Inc. The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely.
This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission.
ß
To order reprints or get permission to use this information, call 312-696-6100.

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