Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Tata Motors, Ltd. TTM: Tata Reports 2Q Results
Tata Motors, Ltd. TTM: Tata Reports 2Q Results
Tata Motors, Ltd. TTM: Tata Reports 2Q Results
Tata Reports 2Q Results Daimler, Volvo, International Trucks, and Nissan are
expected to enter the local commercial vehicle market,
where Tata enjoys 60% share. Tata is launching a slew of
new products in hopes of containing the effects of
by Anil Daka
Analyst Note Nov. 03, 2008 competition, but we believe it will lose market share in
Stock Analyst
Analysts covering this company do not Tightening credit conditions hit Tata Motors’ the commercial vehicle segment in the long run.
own its stock.
second-quarter performance, as the Indian auto major saw
six years of growth come to a grinding halt. Revenue of Turning around Jaguar Land Rover might be the toughest
Pricing data through January 21, 2009.
Rating updated as of
$1.62 billion was down 2% year over year, and net profit challenge Tata Motors has ever faced. These two iconic
January 21, 2009.
tumbled 39% to $79 million. Jaguar Land Rover also brands bled money through the years Ford owned them
Currency amounts expressed with "$" reported a 12% dip in sales, to 85,499 units. During the and turned cash flow positive only in 2007. High research
are in U.S. dollars (USD) unless
quarter, the firm raised $900 million in a rights issue to costs and capital expenditures will require significant cash
otherwise denoted.
fund the purchase of Jaguar Land Rover. Tata also outlays, while reduced demand for sport-utility vehicles,
Stock stringent pollution norms, and quality issues weaken the
20.0 Price announced a new location to manufacture its
ultra-low-cost subcompact vehicle, Tata Nano, ending demand for products. However, with the launch of Jaguar
14.0
months of dispute with local farmers at the original plant XF this year and Land Rover’s focus on reducing emissions,
site in Singur. The firm will use its captive financing arm we are optimistic about the future of Jaguar Land Rover.
to greater effect in the coming months as external sources
8.0
of credit decrease. While the credit squeeze for customers Tata Nano faces production problems because of
6.0 will be an obvious head wind in the coming months, we continued local opposition at the plant site. We are also
5.0
think lower fuel and steel prices will allow Tata greater wary about the firm’s potential to make profits at the
4.0
room to manage its profitability. The current crisis does sticker price of $2,500. In addition, the firm has indicated
05 06 07 08 09
not change our long-term view of the company, and we that it will only manufacture the Nano components and
are maintaining our fair value estimate. that assembly will be done by local entrepreneurs. We are
skeptical about the resultant quality of the product.
However, the massive market potential for such a
Thesis Aug. 04, 2008 low-cost product should keep Tata Motors running.
High manufacturing costs are forcing Tata Motors to raise
selling prices, but price increases coupled with rising auto Tata Motors is also working on innovative eco-friendly
financing rates can dry up demand. This comes at a time technologies like using compressed air to run automobiles.
when Tata has to focus on running the newly acquired It is also developing an electric car. We believe such a
Jaguar Land Rover profitably and work toward a focus prepares it better for future challenges.
successful launch of the much-talked-about low-cost car,
the Tata Nano. While the current business environment is
Valuation
challenging, we believe strong business fundamentals and
an exciting product lineup will carry the company through. We believe Tata Motors is worth $11 per share. We
explicitly forecast industry volume and Tata Motors’
Strong local demand helped Tata Motors increase revenue market share for each operating sector to derive a growth
at a 25% compound annual rate over the past five years. estimate. We think a host of new offerings including Tata
Operating margins averaged an impressive 9.7% during Nano will help the top line grow at 12.6% over the next
this period. However, increasing manufacturing costs and five years. Over the long run, higher raw-material costs,
rising interest rates will put the brakes on this growth and increasing competition, and higher capital expenditures
shrink margins. Furthermore, international players like will compress operating margins to around 5%. We
Tata Motors, Ltd. TTM [NYSE]
Morningstar Rating Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Grade Industry Sector
QQQQQ 4.24 11.00 5.50 22.00 High None C Auto Makers Consumer Goods
Per share prices in USD
Close Competitors Currency(Mil) Market Cap TTM Sales Oper Income Net Income
Government spending on infrastructure continues to be
on an upswing, and Tata Motors will be the biggest
Tata Motors, Ltd. USD 1,635 8,102 526 315
beneficiary.
Toyota Motor Corporation USD 116,404 249,777 19,295 15,187
The Jaguar XF has received enthusiastic response, as
Honda Motor Company USD 42,950 105,559 8,344 5,253
did the XK last year. We think this marks a turning point
Ford Motor Company USD 4,993 161,201 -3,180 -11,507 for Jaguar Land Rover.
Morningstar data as of January 21, 2009.
© 2009 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported. ®
Certain financial data is proprietary to ComStock, a division of Interactive Data Corporation, and Multex.com, Inc. The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely.
This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission.
ß
To order reprints or get permission to use this information, call 312-696-6100.
Tata Motors, Ltd. TTM [NYSE]
Morningstar Rating Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Grade Industry Sector
QQQQQ 4.24 11.00 5.50 22.00 High None C Auto Makers Consumer Goods
Per share prices in USD
Company Overview
Profile: Tata Motors is India’s largest automobile
manufacturer, with revenue of $ 7.3 billion. It designs,
manufactures and finances commercial vehicles and cars.
It is a part of the $60 billion Tata Group that is in turn
owned by charitable trusts. It has a technical and
manufacturing collaboration with Fiat of Italy. In June
2008, Tata Motors acquired Jaguar Land Rover from Ford
for $2.3 billion.
© 2009 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported. ®
Certain financial data is proprietary to ComStock, a division of Interactive Data Corporation, and Multex.com, Inc. The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely.
This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission.
ß
To order reprints or get permission to use this information, call 312-696-6100.
Tata Motors, Ltd. TTM [NYSE]
Morningstar Rating Last Price Fair Value Consider Buy Consider Sell Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Grade Industry Sector
QQQQQ 4.24 11.00 5.50 22.00 High None C Auto Makers Consumer Goods
Per share prices in USD
Analyst Notes
© 2009 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported. ®
Certain financial data is proprietary to ComStock, a division of Interactive Data Corporation, and Multex.com, Inc. The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely.
This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission.
ß
To order reprints or get permission to use this information, call 312-696-6100.
Morningstar ® Stock Data Sheet Pricing data thru Jan. 21, 2009 Rating updated as of Jan. 21, 2009 Fiscal year-end: March
Tata Motors is India’s largest automobile manufacturer, with Morningstar Rating Last Price Fair Value Uncertainty Economic Moat Stewardship Grade
revenue of $ 7.3 billion. It designs, manufactures and QQQQQ $4.24 $11.00 High None C
finances commercial vehicles and cars. It is a part of the $60
billion Tata Group that is in turn owned by charitable trusts. 12.18 14.53 21.99 22.11 20.05 5.41 Annual Price High
It has a technical and manufacturing collaboration with Fiat 8.65 9.25 13.93 15.26 3.50 4.00 Low
Recent Splits
of Italy. In June 2008, Tata Motors acquired Jaguar Land
Price Volatility
Rover from Ford for $2.3 billion. Monthly High/Low
14.0
Rel Strength to S&P 500
52 week High/Low $
20.05 - 3.50
6.0
10 Year High/Low $
3.0 22.11 - 3.50
Bear-Market Rank
Bombay House 24 Homi Mody Street 1.0 0 (10=worst)
Mumbai, II 400-001
Trading Volume Million
Phone: 9122 56568484 Website: http://www.tatamotors.com 1.0
0.6
Growth Rates Compound Annual 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD Stock Performance
Grade: B 1 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr . . . . . . 24.1 44.5 -5.8 -75.7 -4.7 Total Return %
Revenue % 10.2 22.6 . . . . . . . . 21.1 30.9 -9.3 -37.2 6.2 +/- Market
Operating Income % -10.4 8.0 . . . . . . . . 19.8 17.7 1.7 -25.1 -26.6 +/- Industry
Earnings/Share % -21.1 0.8 . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.4 2.0 7.9 8.3 Dividend Yield %
Dividends % 15.6 . . .
. . . . . 4267 5198 7821 7268 1715 1635 Market Cap $Mil
Book Value/Share % 15.2 20.6 . .
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM Financials
Stock Total Return % -75.5 -32.3 . .
. . . . . 6548 4422 5446 7354 8983 8102 Revenue $Mil
+/- Industry -43.0 -21.6 . .
. . . . . 64.2 20.9 21.3 20.5 21.2 21.2 Gross Margin %
+/- Market . . . .
. . . . . 308 419 454 586 583 526 Oper Income $Mil
Profitability Analysis . . . . . 4.7 9.5 8.3 8.0 6.5 6.5 Operating Margin %
Grade: D Current 5 Yr Avg Ind Mkt . . . . . 193 295 340 402 349 315 Net Income $Mil
Return on Equity % 14.4 21.9 -3.4 23.7 . . . . . 0.55 0.78 0.88 1.01 0.88 0.79 Earnings Per Share $
Return on Assets % 4.4 7.6 -0.6 9.4 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.29 0.37 0.33 Dividends $
. . . . .
Fixed Asset Turns 4.5 6.0 3.1 6.4 363 388 399 407 407 407 Shares Mil
. . . . .
Inventory Turns 8.4 8.2 9.8 12.7 2.40 3.46 4.78 6.02 5.60 5.60 Book Value Per Share $
. . . . .
Revenue/Employee $K 222.8 208.8 * 745.3 1010.7
. . . . . 599 508 128 388 873 873 Oper Cash Flow $Mil
Gross Margin % 21.2 29.6 20.0 34.8 -57 -172 -234 -535 -1024 -1024 Cap Spending $Mil
. . . . .
Operating Margin % 6.5 7.4 5.3 17.8 541 336 -106 -147 -151 -151 Free Cash Flow $Mil
. . . . .
Net Margin % 3.9 5.0 -0.7 9.9
Free Cash Flow/Rev % . . 4.3 0.1 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM Profitability
R&D/Rev % 2.7 0.0 . 11.5 . . . . . 7.8 9.7 8.3 7.7 4.4 4.4 Return on Assets %
. . . . . 23.8 28.3 21.9 21.0 14.4 14.4 Return on Equity %
Financial Position . . . . . 2.9 6.7 6.2 5.5 3.9 3.9 Net Margin %
Grade: 03-07 $Mil 03-08 $Mil
. . . . . 2.65 1.45 1.33 1.40 1.14 1.14 Asset Turnover
Cash 176 284 . . . . . 3.0 2.8 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 Financial Leverage
Inventories 780 856
Receivables 1105 1307 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 03-08 Financial Health
Current Assets 2621 3104 . . . . . -413 63 206 -157 -1483 -1483 Working Capital $Mil
. . . . . 243 587 610 926 1465 1465 Long-Term Debt $Mil
Fixed Assets 1464 2483
. . . . . 841 1292 1818 2102 2624 2624 Total Equity $Mil
Intangibles 235 251
. . . . . 0.29 0.45 0.34 0.44 0.56 0.44 Debt/Equity
Total Assets 6235 9204
Payables 1046 1372 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM Valuation
Short-Term Debt 895 1720 . . . . . 20.5 17.4 21.8 16.4 6.1 5.8 Price/Earnings
Current Liabilities 2779 4586 . . . . . 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.5 P/E vs. Market
Long-Term Debt 926 1465 . . . . . 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.2 Price/Sales
Total Liabilities 4133 6581 . . . . . 5.0 4.2 4.3 3.1 0.8 0.8 Price/Book
. . . . . 6.8 15.8 65.8 17.3 2.5 2.4 Price/Cash Flow
Total Equity 2102 2624
Valuation Analysis Quarterly Results Industry Peers by Market Cap
Current 5 Yr Avg Ind Mkt Revenue $Mil Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 Mkt Cap $Mil Rev $Mil P/E ROE%
Price/Earnings 5.8 16.4 -17.7 12.4 Most Recent Period . . . . Tata Motors, Ltd. 1635 8102 5.8 14.4
Forward P/E 11.0 . . 11.0 Prior Year Period 1907.8 1896.9 1858.1 1824.2 Toyota Motor Corpora 116404 249777 5.9 12.9
Price/Cash Flow 2.4 21.6 2.3 8.9 Rev Growth % Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 Honda Motor Company 42950 105559 6.3 13.3
Price/Free Cash Flow . . 5.2 14.5
Most Recent Period . . . .
Dividend Yield % 8.3 . 0.1 3.1 Major Fund Holders
Prior Year Period -96.8 -96.8 -97.0 -96.9
Price/Book 0.8 3.5 1.1 3.0 % of shares
Price/Sales 0.2 0.8 0.2 1.6 Earnings Per Share $ Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 Nuveen Tradewinds Global All-Cap A 0.13
PEG Ratio 1.1 . . 1.2 Most Recent Period . . . . ING Value Choice A 0.11
Prior Year Period 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.23 Nuveen Tradewinds Value Opportunities I 0.10
*3Yr Avg data is displayed in place of 5Yr Avg
© 2009 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported. ®
The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely. This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.
To order reprints or get permission to use this information, call 312-696-6100.
ß
Morningstar’s Approach to Rating Stocks
Our Key Investing Concepts At Morningstar, we evaluate stocks as pieces of a just on movement in the share price. If we think a stock’s
Economic Moat
business, not as pieces of paper. We think that purchasing fair value is $50, and the shares decline to $40 without
Discounted Cash Flow
Discount Rate shares of superior businesses at discounts to their much change in the value of the business, the star rating
Fair Value intrinsic value and allowing them to compound their value will go up. Our estimate of what the business is worth
Uncertainty over long periods of time is the surest way to create hasn’t changed, but the shares are more attractive as an
Margin of Safety
Consider Buying/Consider Selling wealth in the stock market. investment at $40 than they were at $50.
Stewardship Grades
We rate stocks 1 through 5 stars, with 5 the best and 1 Because we focus on the long-term value of businesses,
the worst. Our star rating is based on our analyst’s rather than short-term movements in stock prices, at times
estimate of how much a company’s business is worth per we may appear out of step with the overall stock market.
share. Our analysts arrive at this "fair value estimate" by When stocks are high, relatively few will receive our
forecasting how much excess cash--or "free cash highest rating of 5 stars. But when the market tumbles,
flow"--the firm will generate in the future, and then many more will likely garner 5 stars. Although you might
adjusting the total for timing and risk. Cash generated expect to see more 5-star stocks as the market rises, we
next year is worth more than cash generated several years find assets more attractive when they’re cheap.
down the road, and cash from a stable and consistently
profitable business is worth more than cash from a We calculate our star ratings nightly after the markets
cyclical or unsteady business. close, and issue them the following business day, which is
why the rating date on our reports will always be the
Stocks trading at meaningful discounts to our fair value previous business day. We update the text of our reports
estimates will receive high star ratings. For high-quality as new information becomes available, usually about once
businesses, we require a smaller discount than for or twice per quarter. That is why you’ll see two dates on
mediocre ones, for a simple reason: We have more every Morningstar stock report. Of course, we monitor
confidence in our cash-flow forecasts for strong market events and all of our stocks every business day, so
companies, and thus in our value estimates. If a stock’s our ratings always reflect our analyst’s current opinion.
market price is significantly above our fair value estimate,
it will receive a low star rating, no matter how wonderful
we think the business is. Even the best company is a bad Economic Moat
deal if an investor overpays for its shares. This is our assessment of a firm’s ability to earn returns
consistently above its cost of capital in the future, usually
Our fair value estimates don’t change very often, but by virtue of some competitive advantage. Competition
market prices do. So, a stock may gain or lose stars based tends to drive down such economic profits, but companies
Morningstar Research
Methodology for Valuing Competitive Economic Company Fair Value Uncertainty
Companies Analysis Moat Rating Valuation Estimate Assessment QQQQQ
Analyst conducts The depth of the Analyst considers DCF model leads to An uncertainty Q The current stock
company and industry firm’s competitive company financial the firm’s Fair Value assessment QQ price relative to fair
research: advantage is rated: statements and Estimate, which establishes the QQQ value, adjusted
competitive position anchors the rating margin of QQQQ for uncertainty,
Management None to forecast future framework. safety required for QQQQQ determines the
interviews Narrow cash flows. the stock rating. rating.
Conference calls Wide
Trade-show visits Assumptions are
Competitor, supplier, input into a dis-
distributor, and counted cash-flow
customer interviews model.
© 2009 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported. ®
Certain financial data is proprietary to ComStock, a division of Interactive Data Corporation, and Multex.com, Inc. The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely.
This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission.
ß
To order reprints or get permission to use this information, call 312-696-6100.
Morningstar’s Approach to Rating Stocks (continued)
Stewardship Grades
Fair Value We evaluate the commitment to shareholders
This is the output of our discounted cash-flow valuation demonstrated by each firm’s board and management team
models, and is our per-share estimate of a company’s by assessing transparency, shareholder friendliness,
intrinsic worth. We adjust our fair values for off-balance incentives, and ownership. We aim to identify firms that
sheet liabilities or assets that a firm might have--for provide investors with insufficient or potentially
example, we deduct from a company’s fair value if it has misleading financial information, seek to limit the power
issued a lot of stock options or has an under-funded of minority shareholders, allow management to abuse its
pension plan. Our fair value estimate differs from a "target position, or which have management incentives that are
price" in two ways. First, it’s an estimate of what the not aligned with the interests of long-term shareholders.
business is worth, whereas a price target typically reflects The grades are assigned on an absolute scale--not relative
what other investors may pay for the stock. Second, it’s a to peers--and can be interpreted as follows: A means
long-term estimate, whereas price targets generally focus "Excellent," B means "Good," C means "Fair," D means
on the next two to 12 months. "Poor," and F means "Very Poor."
© 2009 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. Data as originally reported. ®
Certain financial data is proprietary to ComStock, a division of Interactive Data Corporation, and Multex.com, Inc. The information contained herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely.
This report is for information purposes only, and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission.
ß
To order reprints or get permission to use this information, call 312-696-6100.